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  #701  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 1:38 PM
AndyMEng AndyMEng is offline
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Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.
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  #702  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 1:40 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyMEng View Post
Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.
Who pays?
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  #703  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 3:02 PM
roger1818 roger1818 is online now
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
And if property value increases are less than expected there may not be enough revenue for any type of regular service at all.
That is certainly a good point. Housing prices have been rising since about 1998, but were very flat for about 10 years prior to that. Would the stations be able to survive if housing prices were to flatten out for an extended period again?
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  #704  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 4:57 PM
AndyMEng AndyMEng is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Who pays?
I dunno, riders and the gov't as usual?

Seems to me the cheapest option to get rail to people in that area. (Dont' know enough about the other directions to have a opinion)
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  #705  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 5:04 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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Originally Posted by AndyMEng View Post
I dunno, riders and the gov't as usual?

Seems to me the cheapest option to get rail to people in that area. (Dont' know enough about the other directions to have a opinion)
If the intent is to serve the existing population, Arnprior has 10k people and Smiths Falls has 9k people. Not sure that is enough of a tax base (or ridership base) for the kinds of costs involved. If the intent is to encourage more sprawl then I think such a plan would run into the same criticisms that Mr. Potvin's plans have encountered.

Overall rural commuter rail seems like a solution in search of a problem.
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  #706  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 1:52 AM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by roger1818 View Post
That is certainly a good point. Housing prices have been rising since about 1998, but were very flat for about 10 years prior to that. Would the stations be able to survive if housing prices were to flatten out for an extended period again?
The relevant values are leases/rents and sales. Your comment only considers sales. Leases/rents are monthly. Sales average about every 20 years.

The PPR is focused solely on the net increment to leases/rents and sales values attributable to the metropolitan train service. Therefore the base value doesn't matter, except through some indirect ways.

In a flat or depressed housing market, the useful question to consider is whether demand for easy access to metropolitan rail would increase or decrease. We think it will tend to increase, and that this would be significant enough to offset the decline in the base housing prices.


Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #707  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2017, 1:15 AM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyMEng View Post
Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.
In a normal universe where we don't allow private investors to upend regional planning, we don't build rail transit to towns of a few thousand people unless they happen to be on the rail line to a larger terminus.

These cities would be well served by regional bus service (like GO bus service in the GTA). But you'd never see anybody suggesting construction of a brand new rail line to such small towns.

And of course, the only way Mr. Potvin can come even the slightest bit close to his vision to promote massive amounts of sprawl around those small towns to boost their populations to a point where transit is economically viable.

Ask him if transit is feasible with today's populations level in those communities. He won't say yes.....(more than likely he'll just ignore the question and refuse to answer it).
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  #708  
Old Posted Today, 5:59 PM
Charles5 Charles5 is offline
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On 1 July Moose Rail signed a letter of intent with a number of investors. That group allowed for a 120 day period for initial review to determine if there is sufficient merit to follow on with a full feasibility study. I strongly suspect that after that initial review that this will for the most part be over with. I believe the cost of the full feasibility study, were they to do that, was in the order of $5M. I can't imagine any investors putting up that much money up front even for a study when it is obvious that there is virtually no chance of success for all the reasons that have been previously discussed here (insufficient population density, lack of rail capacity, poor state of existing rail infrastructure, inability to collect revenue voluntarily from local property owners, etc, etc).

That 120 day period ends in less than 2 weeks. I look forward to hearing the results and seeing the death of this. My guess though is that Joseph Potvin will still try to push this idea forward even after the investors have concluded that it's simply not possible, continuing to be a thorn in the side of municipal governments all the while trying to impede the actual development of other projects such as improved light rail within the city of Ottawa.
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