How big will your city be in 20 years?

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

the metropolitan areas in the US are huge compared to ours in Canada.

Portland is 6,684 sq mi, while Montréal is 1,644.14 sq mi.

The goal of every city government is to annex its affluent suburbs for the tax dollars. Are the incentives the same in Canada? Here what usually stops them is the county line. More and more cities are becoming geographically contiguous with the county in which they are. In a sense this may be efficient because it can effectively eliminate one layer of government.

[softee]

Originally Posted by memph

Toronto's growth slowed for the 2011-2016 census period though, only adding 345,000 in those 5 years. At that pace it would only reach 7.4 million or so. In general I'd expect the growth rate to slow as the below replacement birth rates start catching up (when the baby boomers start dying of old age). The 2011-2016 growth was low partly because of a shift in growth towards the Prairies, so maybe it'll pick up temporarily, but I think eventually oil prices will go back up and then Toronto's growth is likely to start slowing again.

Now that the oil boom is over in Alberta, some recent Statcan estimates had Ontario's growth back up to well over 200,000 in a single year, most of which is concentrated in the Greater Golden Horseshoe -- we'll see if that high rate of growth continues until the next official census in 2021.

[10023]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

the metropolitan areas in the US are huge compared to ours in Canada.

Portland is 6,684 sq mi, while Montréal is 1,644.14 sq mi.

Portland has mountains in it. It's not consistently dense (or sparse). Same with LA.

[10023]

London was expected to grow from 8.5 million (2014) to 9.7 million by 2024, but who knows what effect Brexit will have. Most of the increase was supposed to come from natural growth rather than net migration, however.

That same growth rate for another 10 years would have put it at about 11 million people in 20 years time. That's city population in London's ~610 square miles, not metro or urban area population.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by dktshb

If we're at 4 Million right now I would guess in 20 years we may be at about 4.4 to 4.7 Million

The city of LA has been trying to push past 4 million for almost two decades. It probably just got there (again) in the last year or so. Why do you think it will add another 400 to 700 thousand in 20 years time?

[initiald]

If current trends over the past 5 years continue, the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill CSA (aka The Triangle in NC) will have a population of around 3.6 million in 20 years.

Raleigh 656,000
Durham 392,000

Also, Charlotte should be 1.24 million with a metro population of just over 4 million.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by initiald

If current trends over the past 5 years continue, the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill CSA (aka The Triangle in NC) will have a population of around 3.6 million in 20 years.

Raleigh 656,000
Durham 392,000

Also, Charlotte should be 1.24 million with a metro population of just over 4 million.

Kind of sad. I enjoyed going to school in Durham when it was a small city and Chapel Hill was a nice college town.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by ue

^ Indigenous, not Native American.



Considering the GTA tends to grow at or just under 100k per year, and has done so for years, I think it only growing by 1.5 million in 20 years is a bit conservative. In 2037, Toronto should be over 8 million, especially if Montreal is approaching 5, which is plausible, if growth continues.

Your numbers for Vancouver seem good, as it grows by about 200,000 every 5 years, and has serious land constraints. It's at 2.5 now, so 3.2-3.3 million in 2037 is realistic.

I think both Calgary and Edmonton will be over 2 million, and Ottawa will probably be just under 2 million by then. The next 3 could be close to a million by then, so yeah, pretty accurate. Overall, I'd probably just put the numbers like this

Toronto - 8,100,000
Montreal - 4,850,000
Vancouver - 3,200,000
Calgary - 2,100,000
Edmonton - 2,000,000
Ottawa - 1,850,000
Winnipeg - 1,000,000
Quebec City - 980,000
Hamilton - 970,000
Kitchener-Waterloo - 675,000
London - 600,000
Halifax - 485,000
Saskatoon - 475,000
Victoria - 420,000
Regina - 400,000
Windsor - 400,000

I thought they were called "First Nations" up there?

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Just my guesstimates for a couple: (City limits)

1) Seattle: 875,000
2) San Francisco: 935,000
3) Dallas: 2,100,000
4) NYC: 9,700,000
5) Washington DC: 830,000
6) Chicago: 2,900,000

If we are talking 20 years, so 2037. Maybe its conservative my guesstimates?

I do think Texas will continue to yield the strongest gains. Washington DC as well. Metro wise, those two I feel will also grow very rapidly.

Dallas, the city, hasn't grown much in a long time, how exactly is it gonna reach 2 million? Half of the city is impoverished and not growing.

[Cory]

If SF continues with the rate of 10,000 per year it will be over 1 million in 20 years.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by 10023

Portland has mountains in it. It's not consistently dense (or sparse). Same with LA.

same thing for Montreal. More than half of the territory consists of agricultural land. 849 mi²

[chris08876]

Domestic migration and immigration will be a big asset to Texas. I can envision 7-8% growth per decade if it continues. Continued business/sector expansion, attracting business, lax real estate policies, and affordable housing. Dallas could to it. High birth rates of immigrants, hispanics, can help. City grew by 10% over 6 years. From 2010 to 2016. People will continue to flock from regions like the Bay Area and Tri-state for cheaper alternatives and better taxes.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Domestic migration and immigration will be a big asset to Texas. I can envision 7-8% growth per decade if it continues. Continued business/sector expansion, attracting business, lax real estate policies, and affordable housing. Dallas could to it. High birth rates of immigrants, hispanics, can help. City grew by 10% over 6 years. From 2010 to 2016. People will continue to flock from regions like the Bay Area and Tri-state for cheaper alternatives and better taxes.

But how long will Texas cities have affordable housing? Austin is already expensive and so are the urban areas of DFW and Houston. The suburbs still offer cheaper sprawl housing but how far can you go and fight the horrible traffic that currently exists (and will get worse) in DFW, Houston and Austin?

I see San Antonio starting to siphon off more growth from Austin as a cheaper alternative. And Oklahoma City and Tulsa to the north as an alternative to DFW.

[The Chemist]

Given the increasing rates of urbanization in China, I could see Shanghai reaching 28-30 million people within 20 years, unless the municipal and /or central government puts caps on migration into the municipality.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

I thought they were called "First Nations" up there?

It is a little bewildering for us Canadians to keep up with the latest politically correct term. Indigenous is the latest term in common use and provides racial identity like Caucasian or Asian. First Nations is more a term identifying the collective community like I am a member of the First Nations but I suppose you could also hear I am a First Nations person. It gets a little confusing.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Dallas, the city, hasn't grown much in a long time, how exactly is it gonna reach 2 million? Half of the city is impoverished and not growing.

I kind of doubt the latest estimate, but it is from the US census Bureau. Here is the growth of the city of Dallas since 1990 according to Wikipedia.:
1990 1,006,977 11.4%
2000 1,188,580 18.0%
2010 1,197,816 0.8%
Est. 2016 1,317,929 [46] 10.0%

I could see Dallas at 1.5 million, but not much more than that unless there is a lot of development west and southwest of downtown and also in the poorer areas you mentioned to the south and southeast of downtown. The older sprawling warehouse area northwest of downtown is seeing a lot of residential development, especially in the area once known as the Design District. Other new development will have to be mostly infill or brown field development since Dallas is kind of surrounded by large suburbs and largely built out with single family homes and two story apartments. Annexed growth is not an option.

[ocman]

Originally Posted by austlar1

The city of LA has been trying to push past 4 million for almost two decades. It probably just got there (again) in the last year or so. Why do you think it will add another 400 to 700 thousand in 20 years time?

Because LA keeps hitting 4 million since 2007. So by 20 years, you'll get news stories every single year for 10 years about how LA has reached another 700K over and over again.

LA population passes 4 million (2008)

[ue]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

I thought they were called "First Nations" up there?

Indigenous is the catch-all term, replacing "Aboriginal". In Canada, there are 3 distinct groups of Indigenous peoples; the First Nations, which are the majority, and are related to Native Americans. Then there is the Inuit, in Northern Canada, which are related to Alaskan Natives. Then there is the distinct mixed race community of Métis, which originate out of Manitoba.

[dktshb]

Originally Posted by austlar1

The city of LA has been trying to push past 4 million for almost two decades. It probably just got there (again) in the last year or so. Why do you think it will add another 400 to 700 thousand in 20 years time?

Yeah, that could be a bit optimistic but it has been growing at 50K per year the last few years, which would mean it would grow by a million in 20... I put it at 400K to 700K, but believe it will be closer to 400K... could be less.

http://www.laweekly.com/news/thanks-...t-time-6889490

[HurricaneHugo]

San Diego:

2000 1,223,400 10.2%
2010 1,307,402 6.9%
Est. 2016 1,406,630 [10] 7.6%

Given that, I'd guess we'll be around 1.6 million by 2037

The county:

2000 2,813,833 12.6%
2010 3,095,313 10.0%
Est. 2016 3,317,749 [6] 7.2%

Given that, I estimate about 4 million by 2037

Note: The county and the metro area are the same