How many inventory units?

[ServiceGuy]

I'm in the high-rise construction business and growing concerned about the amount of inventory condos currently available in Ottawa. Been trying to find out the current inventory but it seems Google isn't helping me much. Any idea how many new condos are on the Ottawa market these days?

[Urbanarchit]

Originally Posted by ServiceGuy

I'm in the high-rise construction business and growing concerned about the amount of inventory condos currently available in Ottawa. Been trying to find out the current inventory but it seems Google isn't helping me much. Any idea how many new condos are on the Ottawa market these days?

Why are you concerned?

I think I heard we have something like 1000+ units available, but I don't know what is included in that number.

[ServiceGuy]

I'm concerned because if there is too much inventory there won't be new high-rise starts and that means I'm out of business. Just looking at the number of tower cranes around the city and I can't imagine enough people buying to justify it all. That's why I wonder how many are already built and waiting for sale but I'm having trouble finding an estimate on that.

[Urbanarchit]

Originally Posted by ServiceGuy

I'm concerned because if there is too much inventory there won't be new high-rise starts and that means I'm out of business. Just looking at the number of tower cranes around the city and I can't imagine enough people buying to justify it all. That's why I wonder how many are already built and waiting for sale but I'm having trouble finding an estimate on that.

I see.

[waterloowarrior]

CMHC - Housing Now
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalo...=1391039881390

CMHC - Housing Outlook
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalo...=1391039862241

[ServiceGuy]

Thank you waterloowarrior. That will give me some reading for sure.

[IntoTheCore]

I know my story isn't necessarily indicative of the market as a whole, but here goes. We put our Hintonburg/West Wellington 1+den (no parking) up for sale in July last year and it just sat on the market. We had lots of interest (at least 20 showings), but no offers. We dropped the price a few times and finally sold it for around 11% less than we bought it in late 2010.

Funnily enough, several nosy neighbours complained to us that our original price wasn't high enough, and that somehow de-valued their units. By the time we sold, a few of them had convinced themselves that the problem *must* be with our unit and not indicative of what their units would fetch or the market in general.

[Capital Shaun]

Originally Posted by IntoTheCore

I know my story isn't necessarily indicative of the market as a whole, but here goes. We put our Hintonburg/West Wellington 1+den (no parking) up for sale in July last year and it just sat on the market. We had lots of interest (at least 20 showings), but no offers. We dropped the price a few times and finally sold it for around 11% less than we bought it in late 2010.

Funnily enough, several nosy neighbours complained to us that our original price wasn't high enough, and that somehow de-valued their units. By the time we sold, a few of them had convinced themselves that the problem *must* be with our unit and not indicative of what their units would fetch or the market in general.

A good family friend has been working as a real estate agent (mostly for buyers) in Ottawa for many years. They told us that very few properties have been selling for their original asking price in recent years. So even though asking prices have increased most are selling for less.

I've met a few owners who assume their property value will increase every year no matter what happens in the market. There's no garantee of turning a profit on a property, especially one owned over a short period of time. A close relative bought & sold two condos in the past decade. Lost money on the first and broke even on the second.

[nredding]

A few months ago I got a letter from a realtor trying to get my business. She said condo prices had had a year-over-year price drop of 6% and people were generally selling for less than original asking prices. The problem with assessing real estate prices in Canada is that actual sale prices are not publicly available, unlike in the U.S. So we have a lot of speculation and anecdotal evidence.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by nredding

A few months ago I got a letter from a realtor trying to get my business. She said condo prices had had a year-over-year price drop of 6% and people were generally selling for less than original asking prices. The problem with assessing real estate prices in Canada is that actual sale prices are not publicly available, unlike in the U.S. So we have a lot of speculation and anecdotal evidence.

Actual sales prices are easily accessible in Canada as well. This is what CREA uses for their statistics.

The limitation of this date is average sales prices do not reflect changes in the location, size or quality of mix of properties being sold. I don't know of any analysis done in Canada that looks at repeat sales like Case-Shiller does for example in the US.

[S-Man]

I know my story isn't necessarily indicative of the market as a whole, but here goes. We put our Hintonburg/West Wellington 1+den (no parking) up for sale in July last year and it just sat on the market. We had lots of interest (at least 20 showings), but no offers. We dropped the price a few times and finally sold it for around 11% less than we bought it in late 2010.

Funnily enough, several nosy neighbours complained to us that our original price wasn't high enough, and that somehow de-valued their units. By the time we sold, a few of them had convinced themselves that the problem *must* be with our unit and not indicative of what their units would fetch or the market in general.

Interesting neighbours...

[Capital Shaun]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Actual sales prices are easily accessible in Canada as well. This is what CREA uses for their statistics.

The CREA stats only give an overview and can show trends. The data my realtor can pull up includes how much all the 40-50 year old bungalows or 20-25 year condos in my neighbourhood have recently actually sold for compared to asking prices. That kind of detailed information isn't available to just anybody.