Queen's Park Politics

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The ONLY reasonable Liberal pickups are probably the two Toronto NDP seats.

Maybe Kanata-Carleton too, depending on how things go. The federal Liberals picked it up by a pretty big margin in 2015, although of course we're talking about different political realities.

I don't think Wynne will step down--if that was her plan, she'd have already done it by now.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Maybe Kanata-Carleton too, depending on how things go. The federal Liberals picked it up by a pretty big margin in 2015, although of course we're talking about different political realities.

I don't think Wynne will step down--if that was her plan, she'd have already done it by now.

In the current form, the seat probably would have gone Liberal in 2014.

[1overcosc]

Andrea Horwath just released a major campaign plank: if elected to government, the NDP will implement universal pharmacare.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I'd say London North Centre is one of the first 5 seats to go (Brant is probably the most vulnerable, the other top 5 are Sault Ste. Marie, St. Catharines and Barrie-Innisfil, the last due to redistribution).

The ONLY reasonable Liberal pickups are probably the two Toronto NDP seats.

St. Catharines and Sault Ste. Marie are tough to predict.

Jim Bradley always managed to get at least 38% of the votes even during bad times for the Liberals. He is the longest serving MPP and has been in the legislature since 1977! If he's running again then he has the best shot but it's not a guaranteed victory. If he's not running then it's not good for the Liberals. The NDP is usually quite strong in St. Catharines so it could be a 3 way race.

As for Sault Ste. Marie, the Liberals now have former Sault mayor and city-councillor Debbie Amaroso running for the riding nomination. This is a huge deal as all three main candidates will come from municipal politics and are very well known. I'm pretty sure the outcome of the Sault by-election will determine whether or not Premier Wynne stays on or not. The Liberals really couldn't have anyone better to have a chance of hanging on to the seat.

The likely candidates will be:

Liberal: Debbie Amoroso

NDP: Joe Krmpotich

PC: Ross Romano

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Andrea Horwath just released a major campaign plank: if elected to government, the NDP will implement universal pharmacare.

I'm wondering if the Wynne Liberals will introduce something similar.

[vid]

The Liberals have a rich tradition of stealing policies from the NDP (at both levels of government), so I wouldn't be surprised if they do.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm wondering if the Wynne Liberals will introduce something similar.

Originally Posted by vid

The Liberals have a rich tradition of stealing policies from the NDP (at both levels of government), so I wouldn't be surprised if they do.

Kathleen Wynne has been known to be an advocate of universal pharmacare in the past, before she became Premier. I suspect she would be implementing universal pharmacare in this year's budget, if it were not for the political urgency of "fixing" (aka subsidizing) hydro.

This is a smart move on Horwath's part, if Wynne doesn't steal it. Universal pharmacare has long been a dream of many progressives and a concrete plan could help the NDP nibble away at the Liberals left flank.

[SteelTown]

Basic income announcement coming Monday in Hamilton

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/72...y-in-hamilton/
Hamilton Spectator

Premier Kathleen Wynne will be in town Monday for an announcement that is expected to divulge details about a long-awaited basic income pilot.

Wynne, along with the province's ministers of poverty reduction strategy and community and social services, will be at Liuna Station at 9 a.m. along with anti-poverty advocates.

Wynne's team did not respond to interview requests Sunday.

The government earmarked $25 million for the project last year — which would provide a supplementary income to those living below the poverty line, in order for them to receive a designated basic income.

It's a concept that has received divided responses from anti-poverty advocates.

Once it's launched, it could be years before they can measure what effect the pilot project has.

[Loco101]

Here's a social media ad from the Liberals about the upcoming budget:

[Loco101]

It’s foolish to count Kathleen Wynne out: Watt

The embattled Ontario premier believes she is doing the best for the people of the province and so does her team. They think they can win and she isn’t going away, regardless of poor poll results.

By Jaime Watt
Sun., April 23, 2017

Kathleen Wynne is not going anywhere.

And that’s for one very good reason — the premier truly believes she has a shot at victory.

In recent months, speculation about her possible departure as Ontario premier has increased. Yet, as the provincial election looms next year, Wynne has repeatedly insisted she is here to stay.

This insistence comes in spite of increasing concern among Liberals that her unpopularity is hurting the party. That anxiety is not entirely misplaced.

A recent Forum Research poll had the Ontario Liberals in third place, expected to receive about 19 per cent of the provincial vote. This was nearly 24 points behind the Progressive Conservatives and 10 points behind the NDP.

With numbers like this, a Liberal victory looks far out of reach.

However, no one should count Wynne out. She is a strong campaigner and an effective communicator. She is capable and incredibly hard-working. The biggest mistake the Progressive Conservatives can make is to forget about Wynne’s potential as a candidate.

The Premier has begun to lay out her game plan for victory. She will pursue an aggressive and progressive policy agenda in a bid to capture enough progressive centrist and left-leaning votes to defeat both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP. Her initiatives will move government to the left — far left.

So what is her path to victory?

First, the premier has announced measures to try to temper skyrocketing home prices, a move that will resonate with many voters and help secure support on the left.

Second, expect the premier to announce that the minimum wage will increase to $15 an hour by 2018.

Third, she will announce a guaranteed annual income program for low-wage workers and welfare recipients. This will win her back some support among middle-class workers who feel this government has largely ignored their concerns about jobs and the economy.

And fourth, next winter, Wynne is banking on Ontarians being happy to see that their hydro bills have decreased by 25 per cent from the previous winter.

The Premier has a few other things going for her.

Wynne has Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in her corner, and he has proven to be an effective resource for Liberals in provincial elections across the country. The Liberal brand remains very strong in Ontario.

With that said, do I think Wynne can win? Only a fool could be goaded into answering that question.

But do I think she believes she can win? Do I think her team believes they can win with her? One-hundred per cent.

There is a comparable example in recent Canadian political history — none other than Wynne’s nemesis, former prime minister Stephen Harper.

Both defied the odds to win majority governments (Harper in 2011 and Wynne in 2012), and both, despite daunting polls, decided they were the best people to lead their parties one last time.

The premier and her supporters staunchly believe that the work her party is doing is for the good of the province and the people of Ontario. Harper’s supporters also had faith that the work he was doing was critical for the nation. Among supporters, Wynne has thus far been given as wide a berth as Harper had in the run-up to his failed re-election.

But what about those terrible polls?

Wynne will almost certainly have a better 2017-2018 than 2016-2017, but the hurdle she needs to overcome may be insurmountable.

One thing, though: political polls have lately not been especially accurate indicators of election outcomes, as we saw south of the border in November.

Perhaps Wynne believes Ontario voters simply have a case of “Liberal fatigue”— the party has been the government in Ontario since 2003 — that they will get over at election time.

What’s more, while Ontarians may not like the current direction of the province, the other parties haven’t offered anything else yet.

Hers is not an easy road to victory, and Wynne, experienced political leader that she is, undoubtedly knows this.

But, as long as she continues to believe she is doing the right thing for Ontario, and as long as she is doing it from behind the premier’s desk, it is not surprising that she has not stepped aside. No one should count on her doing so.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/comm...-out-watt.html

[SteelTown]

Ontario basic income pilot project to launch in Hamilton, Lindsay and Thunder Bay
Premier Wynne made the announcement at Liuna Station in Hamilton on Monday just after 9 a.m.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...lton-1.4082476

Premier Kathleen Wynne announced Monday that Hamilton, Lindsay and Thunder Bay will take part in Ontario's basic income pilot project.

She said in a speech at Liuna Station in Hamilton that "The project will explore the effectiveness of providing a basic income to people who are currently living on low incomes, whether they are working or not. People participating in our pilot communities will receive a minimum amount of income each year— a basic income, no matter what."

The premier said the three-year project will start for people making "just under $17,000 a year, but even that amount may make a real difference to someone who is striving to reach for a better life."

Wynne said "there will be a limit to the number and there will be an application process... We need to address the concerns of those who worry about falling behind, even as they work so hard to get ahead."

Joining Wynne were Helena Jaczek, Minister of Community and Social Services and Chris Ballard, the minister responsible for the province's poverty reduction strategy.

The ministers have been spearheading the province's effort to experiment with "basic income." That's a strategy for reducing poverty that involves "a system of automatic transfers for those beneath an income threshold," according to a discussion paper on the topic addressed to Wynne and the ministers last summer.

The province has said it will launch the pilot project providing money to low-income households with no strings attached.

• Video Link

[SteelTown]

Well I would absolutely love to have universal pharmacare in Ontario I rather have the basic income a province wide policy.

Personally I have to help pay for my mom and dad's prescriptions (they have no prescription coverage) so I would greatly benefit from universal pharmacare but I think the basic income policy would have a broader positive impact for Ontario.

[Loco101]

I can already see the PC position for pharmacare. They will say that the program will end up costing a lot more than the estimates and mean higher taxes. They will try to compete by offering some sort of tax credit instead.

[1overcosc]

More details of Horwath's pharmacare idea coming through.

It won't be full pharmacare to start. Instead, OHIP will cover the full cost of 125 "essential" medications, intended to cover the most commonly prescribed drugs. She promises that the list of 125 drugs will include drugs for high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma, allergies, birth control, and HIV/AIDS, with a government panel to study exactly which drugs to cover. She promises this will be in place by 2020--so within 2 years of an NDP term--and over time, will be gradually expanded to more drugs, with the goal of full universal coverage over time.

The estimated cost is $475 million a year.

This is actually a really smart way to go about doing it. The most commonly prescribed drugs are where the government's bulk buying power will have the most impact, as these are drugs that can be bought in huge numbers and are generally older drugs with lots of generic versions and lots of different companies producing them.

There's also a lot of practical benefits involved in the various drug categories Horwath has picked. High blood pressure and HIV are medical conditions that can be managed quite effectively with drugs, but a lot of the people who have those conditions lack the financial means to take all the recommended drugs, which causes them to develop complications that ultimately cost the health system more money in the end than simply giving them the drugs for free in the first place. Birth control is another similar example; lack of access to contraception can cause unwanted pregnancies which costs the health care system big bucks to pay for abortions (if the pregnancy is terminated) or all the costs of childbirth and infant care (if the pregnancy is completed).

This is actually a really good policy idea.. it's eons better than what we typically get from the Horwath.

[SteelTown]

Kathleen Wynne laying out plan to campaign from the left in 2018
Latest speech sends message — as will Thursday's budget — that she's staying to fight 2018 election

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...2018-1.4082969

With a speech spelling out her vision of government as a "force for good," Premier Kathleen Wynne has sent her clearest signs yet that she will lead the Ontario Liberals into the 2018 election campaign.

Wynne was in Hamilton to announce a project to test the effectiveness of a guaranteed basic income, but her message went well beyond that.

She signalled that balancing the budget on Thursday will provide her government the freedom to embark on new initiatives, and she promised "bold" steps in the coming months to help workers, especially those struggling with low wages or in part-time or temporary employment.

"This is no time to retreat,"declared Wynne in a speech to an audience that included union members and anti-poverty activists at a Laborers' International Union of North America conference.

"People are anxious about their jobs and their futures," she said.

"When I first stood in front of the people of Ontario as premier, I was very clear that I believe government can and must be a force for good. I believe that even more strongly today," she said. "In the days and the weeks and the months to come, our government will reveal more details of our plan."

Wynne's words ought to put to rest any speculation that she will resign before the election, according to two of her most ardent supporters in the Liberal caucus.

"She is not going anywhere," said Deputy Premier Deb Matthews in an interview Monday. "She is definitely excited about the next year, excited about the next campaign. This is really an opportunity to do what she and many of us went into politics to do."

To those who think Wynne will quit, the speech says, "Set that notion aside," said longtime Hamilton-area MPP Ted McMeekin. "We have a vision, she wants to be part of that, I want her to be part of that."

McMeekin said the budget will be "a new foundational launching post not just for the premier but for our party as well."

The speech reveals how the Liberals intend to campaign from the left. Although she offered no specifics, Wynne laid out the general thrust of her three-part plan to "build and preserve a fair society."

Here are three quotes that paint in broad strokes where the premier and her government want to go:

"We must do more than simply protect people's wages and their ability to earn a good living. We must work to create a fair economy that provides opportunity and security for everyone."
"Building a fair future for Ontario workers."
"A far-reaching focus on education, to give everyone in Ontario a fair start."

You will notice the repeated use of the word "fair." Wynne said fair, fairly or fairness 14 times in her five-page speech. The word is also prominent in what the government calls its "Fair Housing Plan" and "Fair Hydro Plan."

Wynne signalled clearly in her speech that appealing to workers will be a key thrust of her re-election campaign. Here's a revealing passage:

"We'll be focused on providing help in areas where employers have withdrawn from their traditional role. We'll be looking at the challenges faced by those who are supporting a family and at the same time working at a minimum-wage job. At a time when companies are choosing to create more part-time and contract jobs, we'll be working to ensure those workers are treated fairly. And we'll be exploring how we can further support workers in an era where jobs don't last a lifetime anymore, and sometimes fail to deliver even basic benefits."

This comes as Wynne's government considers significant changes to the rules governing workplaces, such as paid sick days and vacation provisions.
Wynne 'has done enough damage'

NDP leader Andrea Horwath, who has promised a $15 minimum wage and a universal pharmacare program, is unimpressed by Wynne's "force for good" comment and her left-leaning signals.

"The government in this province has been a force for bad for 14 years," Horwath told reporters Monday. "This premier has done enough damage and it's time for a big change."

Horwath blames the Liberals for the very problems Wynne is now pledging to solve.

"This Liberal government has created a situation where folks are worried about their future," Horwath said, dismissing Wynne as "a premier frankly who's been more interested in her own political well-being, and in feathering the nests of her friends and her buddies in high places, than in looking at what's happening to real Ontarians."

To those who might be tempted by Wynne's politically progressive talk, Horwath pointed to the sale of Hydro One and cuts in the health-care system and said, "Buyer beware."

[Loco101]

And now a Liberal online ad about NDP leader Andrea Horwath:

[HillStreetBlues]

I found the narrative in Sousa's budget speech fairly compelling. They balanced three budgets, then the 2008 recession (which was "historic," "unprecedented," "worst since the Great Depression," etc) hit, the government rejected the common wisdom of austerity, now the economy is growing again, and the budget has balanced itself.

Okay, I know the provincial Liberals wouldn't say that last part. But that's what there narrative suggests, isn't it? They spent countercyclically, running deficits in the lean years, and now that the economy is ticking along, they are no longer running deficits.

Who knows how that will play. But I thought the way he laid it out in the beginning of his speech seemed fairly reasonable.

[1overcosc]

And on the pharmacare topic, the government is introducing free prescription drugs for those under 25. That's huge--a disproportionate chunk of those without private health insurance are youth. When combined with the existing drug programs for seniors and social assistance recipients, it means half the population of the province will have government-funded access to drugs.

[1overcosc]

Now of course, the real question: which pharmacare plan is better? Wynne's or Horwath's?

[HillStreetBlues]

The NDP plan is "better" for the reasons you laid out earlier: by limiting it to a short list of the most common drugs, it would leverage government's advantages in terms of buying power, and benefit the most people for the cost of it. Good value for money.

Politically, the Liberal plan is better. All members of important constituencies (relatively speaking, the childless aren't important) will benefit as they either have kids or grandkids. In the case of the most important voters, they already get their drugs courtesy of taxpayers, and now their grandchildren will, too.

It's probably reasonable policy to have an age cut-off as those are the people less likely to have private coverage. I can also easily see Liberal attacks on the NDP plan revolving around specific human cases of children whose parents can't afford the prescription drugs needed to save their lives, still wouldn't be able to under the NDP plan, but would under the Liberal plan.