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  #9401  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 11:11 PM
Khantilever Khantilever is offline
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Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post

Every time the market anticipates a rate hike financial conditions have tightened as you would expect and as you are taught in business school. But every time the rate hikes have actually occurred financial conditions have actually loosened which is the exact opposite of what econ 101 would teach you.
The simpler explanation is that it's about expectations. When the Fed signals a rate hike, they're expressing optimism about the economic fundamentals. And because the Fed is so influential, reasonable optimism is self-fulfilling. The fact that the Fed influences expectations so much is precisely why they try to be very clear and precise about their actions.

Ideally, nothing should change when the Fed makes an announcement since we've all perfectly anticipated their actions, and that's exactly what happened after the last few announcements - nothing.
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  #9402  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2017, 11:46 PM
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1411 S Michigan

Oct 4





And that's all the floors folks
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  #9403  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 12:13 AM
Stockerzzz Stockerzzz is offline
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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post
Over 50% Americans don't have $500 for an emergency.
This is due to poor personal finance skills by Americans.

I would predict that number would be the same in two years if every citizen were given $1,000 today in cash.

Average people don't make personal budgets. They don't plan. They rack up credit card debt for steak dinners and $800 iPhones. They finance $30,000 trucks with car payments to impress people at stoplights they'll never meet.

Wage stagnation is real, but it maybe accounts for 10% of the blame for this statistic. It's odd when consumerism is so strong in America that people have phones (bought with debt) more valuable than their emergency fund.
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  #9404  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 1:15 AM
Khantilever Khantilever is offline
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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post

For the average person, wages have remained stagnant for 20 years. Taxes, healthcare, housing, college costs, utilities have all continued to rise.
Compensation for labor has risen a lot over that period, precisely because it includes much of those rising healthcare costs and taxes; from your employer's perspective, your wage is everything that is spent on you including health insurance, payroll tax matching, etc.

Similarly, housing costs are bid up precisely because of high wages (e.g., the Bay Area) and because of location-specific amenities people increasingly enjoy and value (e.g., the Bay Area).

There's plenty of data showing how the effective price of college - as opposed to the sticker price - hasn't risen all that much; and regardless, college is really an investment (not a consumer expenditure) with a return that has never been higher.

I say this not to argue that everything is fine and dandy in the world. There are real concerns about slowing growth in productivity; about limited housing supply; about access to college and rising student debt. But the sky isn't falling either. It's unfortunately far too common for people on either end of the political spectrum to exaggerate these issues.
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  #9405  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 3:49 PM
Near North Resident Near North Resident is offline
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Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
Via said rates have never been this low for this long. Slight correction, rates have literally never been this low, even after 4 rate increases we are still at levels that have literally never been tested. That's not to mention QE being a financial trick that was made up on the fly and has also never been tested before.

The Bears are ALWAYS wrong... Until they aren't.

The Fed has no idea what they just did and now they are puzzled as to why the economy isn't responding the same way that it does when they used to raise rates. Hint: nothing has been the same since the crash and it certainly won't be the same when it comes to monetary policy. My prediction is that lowering rates below a certain point actually starts to slow the economy as spreads are compressed and the general yields brought by risk taking are also squeezed discouraging small business formation and other types of positive risk taking.

Every time the market anticipates a rate hike financial conditions have tightened as you would expect and as you are taught in business school. But every time the rate hikes have actually occurred financial conditions have actually loosened which is the exact opposite of what econ 101 would teach you. This lines up perfectly with my theory that rate cuts start to slow the economy below a certain level. Now until that level is reached rate increases should actually ease monetary conditions as spreads in the US decompress and suck all the money sitting in f500 overseas accounts or foreign governments currency reserves back into the United States seeking those improved yields.

Of course the Fed is totally oblivious to this and scratches their heads at every monthly meeting about the missing inflation. The longer they hold off on rate hikes the longer the inflation will be missing, stockpiling overseas just waiting for the signal to flood back in and touch off runaway inflation once the Fed has unwound the policies preventing it.

There are a lot of people starting to get complacent, it's only a matter of time before we hear a loud popping sound.


or the fed actually knows what they are doing and got it right, compared to some arm chair economists on the internet... a deflationary environment would be disastrous which is why they held off raising rates sooner, did you know we had a manufacturing recession in 2015? The Fed tried to exit in 2015 while other countries kept easing, we had a much stronger dollar and deflation as a result.

FYI rates have definitely been this low before, the fed instituted caps on rates after WW2
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  #9406  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 5:21 PM
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^^ Right on the money, Kahn and Stockerzz. Two level-headed responses on economic principles. Nice to see here once in a while!
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  #9407  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2017, 11:53 PM
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675 N Wells Tower Crane Removal This Week

From Aldi. Reilly's weekly email:

"The construction site at 675 N Wells will be removing their tower crane beginning Wednesday, October 18, through Friday, October 20. During this time a full street closure of Wells, Huron to Erie, will be in effect. In the event of inclement weather, the work may be extended through Saturday, October 21 or Sunday, October 22."
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  #9408  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 10:55 AM
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^ Now we just need The Blanc to start construction, and then almost every lot on Wells St from Chicago Ave to the river would have been developed.

Also, if anyone is curious about the Tribune development site plans, they submitted their zoning application. Some pretty interesting stuff in the plans. They plan to privately build new roadways with public access. The max building height is 610'. Surprisingly, they only need a DX-5 for the entire site, since 25% of the development is open spaces/parks.
Zoning application: https://chicago.legistar.com/Legisla...vanced&Search=
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  #9409  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 3:24 PM
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^ I have to wonder if the submittal of this PD (and various others) was prompted by the new updates to the ARO for Near West Side/North Branch/Milwaukee Corridor. We're seeing a flood of zoning applications again as developers want to lock in their affordable-housing obligations before the new, stricter requirements kick in. That doesn't mean these are all real proposals, many of them might just be attempts to increase the value of land for an eventual flip.

The Freedom Center proposal is terrible and poorly planned.

-Traffic planning sucks. No new bridge at Erie, and Erie doesn't even connect into the site. The city kind of messed this up by giving away 30' of Erie to Water Saver Faucet for parking back in 2009, but there's still 50' of ROW remaining which is enough to link Erie through the Tribune site and hopefully across the river. Instead, the western access is at Ancona... west of Halsted, Ancona is basically an alley. This design will just send lots of traffic down this alley, or if they block it off, create a mess as everyone has to turn onto traffic-choked Halsted.

-Only the very far northwest corner of the site has elevated streets ala Lakeshore East, to meet up with Halsted/Chicago that are already elevated. The rest of the site is built at grade, which means the buildings will have parking podiums and the rail corridor will have grade crossings at Ancona and Ohio (plus the existing one at Grand).

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  #9410  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 3:34 PM
Joe Zekas Joe Zekas is online now
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New in River North - Marlowe, Exhibit on Superior, SixForty, Gallery on Wells
by YoChicago, on Flickr

See larger versions of the photo at Flickr.
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  #9411  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 4:33 PM
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  #9412  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 4:42 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Near North Resident View Post
or the fed actually knows what they are doing and got it right, compared to some arm chair economists on the internet... a deflationary environment would be disastrous which is why they held off raising rates sooner, did you know we had a manufacturing recession in 2015? The Fed tried to exit in 2015 while other countries kept easing, we had a much stronger dollar and deflation as a result.

FYI rates have definitely been this low before, the fed instituted caps on rates after WW2
The lowest prime rate during WWII was around 2% which is still about double what it is today even after several rate hikes. That interest rate also didn't occur in conjunction with QE which is totally untested and unknown. That interest rate also coincided with a global war that left over 80% of all gold on Earth in the United States along with other heaps of precious metals and other assets as well as leaving the US as the only major economy now thoroughly devestated by war. I don't think there is any way to suggest that history is even remotely similar to the situation we are in now. The Fed may have successfully staved off a depression, but the consequences of their actions have yet to be seen. There is no free lunch, there never will be.
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  #9413  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 5:17 PM
Joe Zekas Joe Zekas is online now
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  #9414  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 5:46 PM
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Great shots, Joe. They almost look like 3-D maps at first.
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  #9415  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 5:52 PM
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Man those photos are great!
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  #9416  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 6:24 PM
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I'm working my way slowly through more than 4,000 photos that two employees and I shot on a helicopter charter yesterday. Check in periodically with this Flickr album if you want to see more of them.
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  #9417  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 7:34 PM
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  #9418  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 8:49 PM
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The Marlowe

October 14

675 N Wells
by me, on Flickr
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  #9419  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2017, 11:42 PM
Joe Zekas Joe Zekas is online now
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  #9420  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2017, 1:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Zekas View Post
Joe, you should consider a collaboration with chicago.curbed.com as they keep up with the ongoing projects all over Chicago.
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