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  #61  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 12:05 AM
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Originally Posted by rbt View Post
That would be challenging. In the time it takes them to assemble at the border, we can start lobbing dirty nukes over at them.

No doubt they would win, but it could be an incredibly dirty war.
All we have to do is stop maintaining our infrastructure, and make sure our transportation systems are slow, poorly designed, and confusing. They will get bogged down in the mud and lost in no time. Oh wait, that sounds like us already!!
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  #62  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Trans Canada View Post
Thanks, glad you enjoyed.

Here's the past 11 years of annual growth, measured quarterly (to be clear this is measuring the growth on the same quarter of the prior year, so 2004 Q3 is measuring growth since 2013 Q3)



Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=
This graph is interesting, especially in the case of Alberta... in that, it not only shows the volatility of Alberta's growth patterns, but it also shows the strength in them. Our worst period of the past 11 years brought us only down to the 2nd highest growth percentage, and even then only for an extremely brief period. That is pretty crazy.
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  #63  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 1:44 AM
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Notice briefly in 2011, PEI had the greatest growth rate. Statistical noise or a growth spurt?
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  #64  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 2:11 AM
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It seems like PEI was the only province to benefit from the global financial crisis. Not sure why that is. Could have been a pulse of islanders returning home from Alberta during the recession.
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  #65  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 2:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
This graph is interesting, especially in the case of Alberta... in that, it not only shows the volatility of Alberta's growth patterns, but it also shows the strength in them. Our worst period of the past 11 years brought us only down to the 2nd highest growth percentage, and even then only for an extremely brief period. That is pretty crazy.
I take it PEI and the Territories don't count?
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  #66  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 3:23 AM
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It seems like PEI was the only province to benefit from the global financial crisis. Not sure why that is. Could have been a pulse of islanders returning home from Alberta during the recession.
It was immigration. They have a provincially run immigration program that had lots of success. It seems to have sputtered though.
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  #67  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 3:33 AM
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I don't see that happening in our lifetimes to be honest. The lower prices over there means Americans still have more purchasing power than us. Also the US economy has now recovered is growing at the same pace as the Canadian one.
The possibility of that happening is unfathomable to most Canadians. We've always viewed the US as the gold standard as far as material wealth goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see our middle class with significantly more purchasing power than the US middle class a generation from now.

The difference is in how each country views human capital. In the modern world its a nation's most important asset. We have more of a 'leave no child behind' view and make access to quality education available to almost all our citizens.

In other words, we're using far more of our human capital than they are, and by extension more fully utilizing our potential. In the long run, it's implausible that the US can stay ahead of us. Adjusted for purchasing power, Canada's middle class is already the world's wealthiest; we passed the Americans in 2010: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/up...abt=0002&abg=0

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Last edited by isaidso; Sep 29, 2014 at 3:46 AM.
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  #68  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 3:52 AM
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I take it PEI and the Territories don't count?
Oh shit I guess I didn't take a good enough look. Well yeah, I wasn't really counting the territories, but PEI and Sask did both have higher growth for a brief time. Hopefully PEI's growth can rebound.
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  #69  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 5:19 AM
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^click for full size

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=
A couple things that interest me on this graph are

a) Saskatchewan's abrupt turnaround, from 2nd lowest province to 2nd highest within 2 years (being Alberta's neighbour it was probably losing population to Alberta, until its current resource boom (potash and oil if I understand correctly) started up
b) The inverse relationship between Alberta and the Atlantic provinces (everybody knows about this, but it's interesting to see how clear it is on a graph)
c) The stability (low volatility) of Ontario and Quebec (probably just due to the sheer size - the opposite effect happens to the territories)
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  #70  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 5:22 AM
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I'm pretty sure that's the case. For years Saskatchewan lost people to Alberta, and when things got busy they gained some back for a period of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trans Canada View Post
A couple things that interest me on this graph are

a) Saskatchewan's abrupt turnaround, from 2nd lowest province to 2nd highest within 2 years (being Alberta's neighbour it was probably losing population to Alberta, until its current resource boom (potash and oil if I understand correctly) started up
b) The inverse relationship between Alberta and the Atlantic provinces (everybody knows about this, but it's interesting to see how clear it is on a graph)
c) The stability (low volatility) of Ontario and Quebec (probably just due to the sheer size - the opposite effect happens to the territories)
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  #71  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 5:32 AM
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I think they may still be gaining people back, or at least the rate of interprovincial immigration is negligible.


One of the interesting things about Saskatchewan's current boom is that they haven't even begun to tap their vast reserves of Bakken Formation oil reserves (the same formation North Dakota is exploiting). They are currently mostly focused on Potash and Sands Oil. To that end, I think we could be seeing Saskatchewan enter a period of sustained growth for, I'd imagine, at least a decade. We could see its population grow to 1.5 million by 2030 if they decide to fully exploit their resources and aggressively move towards diversification, similar to what Alberta started in the 90s. It's a very attainable goal, a growth of about 380 000 over the next 15 years (average about 25 000/year). For reference, they have been averaging around 20 000 for the past 3 years.
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  #72  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 8:29 PM
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  #73  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 8:51 PM
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You can put Gatineau in Quebec, 273 915 hab (2014)
4th largest city in the province.

metro 314,501
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  #74  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 8:54 PM
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I just put it in the Ontario part because Ottawa is the main part of the metro, as everyone knows the metro is split between the two provinces. Unfortunately Statcan doesn't release estimates for both parts of the metro, so I would have no idea what to base the Gatineau numbers on.

Is it only 274 000 in the Quebec part still though? I thought it was over 300 000 even in 2011?
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  #75  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 8:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I just put it in the Ontario part because Ottawa is the main part of the metro, as everyone knows the metro is split between the two provinces.

Is it only 274 000 in the Quebec part still though? I thought it was over 300 000 even in 2011?
the Metro is over 320K in 2014.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatineau
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  #76  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 9:42 PM
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Hamilton really needs to grow a bit faster. I just want it to match the national growth rate really.
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  #77  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 9:50 PM
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Originally Posted by JHikka View Post
Similar issues are already occuring in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Rural areas are very, very elderly. Given the isolated nature of some of the Newfoundland towns we are literally going to see some towns and villages evaporate in the next 20 years. It won't nearly be as drastic in NB & NS but we're going to continue to see shrinking populations in both if neither economies take off.
The crazy part is if you do the math, were gonna have a massive economic revival in about 20 years.

You gotta remember what has choked the atlantic provinces, has always been the rural-urban ratios.

Were gonna become very urban very fast, which might give us a great advantage, with ontario and BC, hitting taxation-high cost of living gluts.
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  #78  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 10:22 PM
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Hamilton really needs to grow a bit faster. I just want it to match the national growth rate really.
I think Go Transit and Metrolinx will finally be the shot in the arm that Hamilton needs. It's always been just that little bit too far for people who work in Toronto. With faster trains and better service, it's going to be a game changer. People can live in Hamilton and be in downtown Toronto in a jiffy, or vice versa. In the GTAH, Hamilton easily has the 2nd best downtown. I've considered moving there many times, but always changed my mind due to bad transit connections to Toronto.

Hamilton offers great value compared to Toronto and might start seeing huge bumps in population growth thanks to transit upgrades. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton grow faster than any other CMA in Ontario over the next 30 years. It's a diamond in the rough.
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  #79  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Bolded #s = regional population hub
What is a "regional population hub" ?

Is that like connecting flights for population or something?
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  #80  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 10:55 PM
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A hub for large regions in the case of cities under 1 000 000, but cities over 1 000 000 are generally just considered hubs regardless of proximity to other hubs.

Halifax is the hub of the Atlantic, Montreal is the hub of Quebec, Toronto is the hub of Ontario, but being that metro Ottawa is also over 1 000 000 people, it's clearly a hub in its own right. Winnipeg being the largest city for 1000 km east or west in Canada makes it a really important hub, and Alberta's cities are both hubs of generally equal importance. Vancouver is the hub of Canada's Pacific Coast.

Quebec City may also be a hub, but I didn't include it as such, as it's really not that big of a deal
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