Cities with the greatest growth due to college graduates+where millennials are moving

[YSL]

http://www.urbanophile.com/2010/12/0...ity-revisited/

Also interesting..

Where millennials are and aren't moving:.



http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/...ng-now/388748/

[mhays]

It's more about where cities are changing. If your city always drew a ton of degree holders and millennials, it won't do well on these lists.

Of course there's also a big difference between places that grow on the cheapness model vs. places that grow because the top people (or grads) in a given field go there, like New York or San Francisco for example. Many grads might avoid them due to price but a lot of the best and brightest go there.

[emathias]

Places with smaller county sizes also tend to show up better on this list, since it's by county. In Chicago 1 county accounts for over half of the entire metro area population. In New York, just the city itself has five counties.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by emathias

Places with smaller county sizes also tend to show up better on this list, since it's by county. In Chicago 1 county accounts for over half of the entire metro area population. In New York, just the city itself has five counties.

Yeah. If you want to try to measure "gentrification" using a county-based tracking system is generally pretty bad, and looking at MSA-wide numbers is even worse.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by emathias

Places with smaller county sizes also tend to show up better on this list, since it's by county. In Chicago 1 county accounts for over half of the entire metro area population. In New York, just the city itself has five counties.

Good point. LA County has a population of 10 million!

[mello]

Just read this article on Denver that ChaseUnperson had posted in another thread, wow seems like this city is really urbanizing and reeling in the millenials with bike paths, better transit, a decent variety of inner urban neighorhoods etc. In the comments section people are commening on how bad the traffic is now and that just to get to the mountains on I-70 has horrendous traffic. Can any Denver forumers comment on this: http://www.wsj.com/articles/denver-j...als-1437698907

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by mhays

If your city always drew a ton of degree holders and millennials, it won't do well on these lists.

New York and San Francisco have always attracted young well-educated people, and that's been the main growth demographic in Arlington since at least the 1980s.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by emathias

Places with smaller county sizes also tend to show up better on this list, since it's by county. In Chicago 1 county accounts for over half of the entire metro area population. In New York, just the city itself has five counties.

I doubt this is much of a factor. Kings County, Queens County and New York County, are all among the top 20 most populous counties in the country. Bronx County is #26.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I doubt this is much of a factor. Kings County, Queens County and New York County, are all among the top 20 most populous counties in the country. Bronx County is #26.

His point is they are entirely urbanized counties - every square inch is part of the core city. Compare this to somewhere like Los Angeles or Chicago, which only occupy a fraction of the "core county." So it's not really an apples to apples comparison.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

His point is they are entirely urbanized counties - every square inch is part of the core city. Compare this to somewhere like Los Angeles or Chicago, which only occupy a fraction of the "core county." So it's not really an apples to apples comparison.

They are using the same administrative units to measure each. If he was trying to say that places with smaller populations would show up more favorably then that would be a legitimate critique. But the New York counties aren't small population counties, so they would not be affected by a small population bias. Furthermore, there are other major cities in the country that are coterminous with the county they sit in (Philadelphia, Baltimore, St. Louis, New Orleans), which don't seem to benefit from this suspected bias.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

They are using the same administrative units to measure each. If he was trying to say that places with smaller populations would show up more favorably then that would be a legitimate critique. But the New York counties aren't small population counties, so they would not be affected by a small population bias. Furthermore, there are other major cities in the country that are coterminous with the county they sit in (Philadelphia, Baltimore, St. Louis, New Orleans), which don't seem to benefit from this suspected bias.

We only know the top 9 on this chart, which includes:

1. Four boroughs of NYC
2. Two independent core cities (San Francisco and DC)
3. Suffolk County, MA - 85.5% of which is made up of Boston by population
4. Arlington, VA, which while technically unincorporated is practically speaking urbanized, and becoming more urban by the day.
5. Alexandria, VA - Which has the same basic dynamics as Arlington, but is actually incorporated as a city.

I don't think we can say the exclusion of Philly, Baltimore, Saint Louis, and New Orleans says much of anything, because the chart stops there. I would not be surprised at all if Philly came next personally.

[Shawn]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I would not be surprised at all if Philly came next personally.

If you look at the MSA map posted, the Philly metro is in the same 50.0-69.9 statistical significance category as Boston, DC, and SF. It's got to be just below these three.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

We only know the top 9 on this chart, which includes:

1. Four boroughs of NYC
2. Two independent core cities (San Francisco and DC)
3. Suffolk County, MA - 85.5% of which is made up of Boston by population
4. Arlington, VA, which while technically unincorporated is practically speaking urbanized, and becoming more urban by the day.
5. Alexandria, VA - Which has the same basic dynamics as Arlington, but is actually incorporated as a city.

I don't think we can say the exclusion of Philly, Baltimore, Saint Louis, and New Orleans says much of anything, because the chart stops there. I would not be surprised at all if Philly came next personally.

I wouldn't be surprised either, considering that 9 of the top 10 counties are in the Bos-Wash corridor.

[novawolverine]

Originally Posted by mhays

It's more about where cities are changing. If your city always drew a ton of degree holders and millennials, it won't do well on these lists.

This is not true. If your city has always drawn degree holders and millenials and as a result the places are becoming so expensive to where it'd be so incredibly difficult to live without one, than you'll do well on this list. If you first look at the units and then go to the site and read the authors interpretation, you can confirm that these cities are actually losing people without college degrees and are becoming more exclusive. That sounds about right for cities like NYC, SF, DC, and Boston.

Places like Baltimore, St. Louis, and New Orleans (and to a less extent Philly) are earlier in their gentrification phases and/or are not so oppressively expensive that they're pushing working-class people out in droves while young, educated, and oftentimes rich transform large swaths of the city. It's actually not entirely a bad thing.

I'd be interested to see where cities like Austin, Seattle, LA, Raleigh and a few others land on this list.

[mhays]

My point is that if you've always had a ton of millennials and millennial inflow, your "growth" in millennials won't be high even if you continue to get a lot.

[Cirrus]

And our point is that several of the cities shown here to have high growth HAVE always had a ton of millennials and millenial inflow.

[novawolverine]

Originally Posted by mhays

My point is that if you've always had a ton of millennials and millennial inflow, your "growth" in millennials won't be high even if you continue to get a lot.

Originally Posted by Cirrus

And our point is that several of the cities shown here to have high growth HAVE always had a ton of millennials and millenial inflow.

Right, and "Growth" wise or not, at the high-end of the spectrum, there's an outflow of folks without at least a bachelor's degree because of the high cost of living.

[mhays]

No doubt, it's possible to start from a high position and get even higher.