Economic and political issues in NS

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

This analysis helps bring some perspective:

http://www.novascotia.ca/finance/sta...&rdval=2016-03

You can see there how the numbers bounce up and down. Some of this is due to labour market volatility and some of it is error.

The monthly employment numbers in Halifax are a small random sampling based on a survey. I don't think there is a way to know exactly how many people were working in the city during the past month (taxes would give you better data but I don't think businesses report monthly).

The sampling error is amplified when you focus just on the change in the employment total the year-over-year monthly change. Imagine if there were a good probability of being just 1% off in the estimate of the number of employed people in the city; you might go 1% over one month and 1% under during the same month the next year. This is an apparent large decrease in the number of jobs (about 4,000 less in the Halifax case) that is just sampling error.

You'd do better by doing something like plotting these monthly samples on a chart to try to find trends over a few years. Or by relying on some other source of data. Not as nice as getting an up-to-the-month account of the labour force but probably much more reliable.

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by someone123

You can see there how the numbers bounce up and down. Some of this is due to labour market volatility and some of it is error.

The monthly employment numbers in Halifax are a small random sampling based on a survey. I don't think there is a way to know exactly how many people were working in the city during the past month (taxes would give you better data but I don't think businesses report monthly).

The sampling error is amplified when you focus just on the change in the employment total the year-over-year monthly change. Imagine if there were a good probability of being just 1% off in the estimate of the number of employed people in the city; you might go 1% over one month and 1% under during the same month the next year. This is an apparent large decrease in the number of jobs (about 4,000 less in the Halifax case) that is just sampling error.

You can see the sampling error if you "Add/Remove Data" here:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

The monthly point values from Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 are

6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.8

The standard error for the Feb 2016 sample is 0.6 (it's 0.5 to 0.6 most months), so the confidence interval is 6.2 - 7.4.

The standard error for month-to-month changes is consistently 0.3, so the change of 0.3 from January - 6.5 (confidence interval 5.9 to 7.1) to February - 6.8 is entirely within the standard error, so not statistically significant.

The standard error for year-over-year changes is even greater at 0.7 to 0.8.

Thus the difference between February 2016 - 6.8 (or 6.2 - 7.4) and February 2015 - 6.3 (or 5.8 to 6.8) is 0.5, less than the error of 0.7 and therefore again not statistically significant.

In essence, we really don't know if the rate has gone up at all, though it appears to be trending upward since last August.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by portapetey

You can see the sampling error if you "Add/Remove Data" here:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

The monthly point values from Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 are

6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.8

The standard error for the Feb 2016 sample is 0.6 (it's 0.5 to 0.6 most months), so the confidence interval is 6.2 - 7.4.

The standard error for month-to-month changes is consistently 0.3, so the change of 0.3 from January - 6.5 (confidence interval 5.9 to 7.1) to February - 6.8 is entirely within the standard error, so not statistically significant.

The standard error for year-over-year changes is even greater at 0.7 to 0.8.

Thus the difference between February 2016 - 6.8 (or 6.2 - 7.4) and February 2015 - 6.3 (or 5.8 to 6.8) is 0.5, less than the error of 0.7 and therefore again not statistically significant.

In essence, we really don't know if the rate has gone up at all, though it appears to be trending upward since last August.

Thanks for the statistical perspective. I agree with your comment since the Statistics Canada stats have shown some large variations in the past.

[Drybrain]

The feds increased Nova Scotia's provincial nominee immigration cap permanently to 1,350 today. It was set at a piddly 700 for years and years, until finally being bumped up to 1,050 last year. We had filled that entire quota by mid-year, so we got a one-time top-up to 1,350.

I guess the provincial government have been hectoring the feds to increase our number, and the latter complied.

For a province that only takes in about 2,500 immigrants a year, an additional 800 is a big deal (and it will hopefully make the province more desirable from immigrants from other streams as well, and pave the way for further increases down the road). It’s an especially big deal for Halifax, which we can presume is where most of them will end up living.

[q12]

Nova Scotia 2016-17 budget just released with a projected $127.4 million surplus. No tax increases except for cigarettes.

http://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20160419001

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by q12

Nova Scotia 2016-17 budget just released with a projected $127.4 million surplus. No tax increases except for cigarettes.

http://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20160419001

That is a surprise especially considering large deficits in Alberta, Ontario and Newfoundland.

One thing that I can't grasp is this:

Budget 2016-2017 projects a $127.4 million surplus. The surplus includes a one-time revenue increase of $110.3 million because of federal and municipal contributions for the convention centre in Halifax.

Maybe someone with an accounting degree (or anyone who understands the accounting) can explain it.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

That is a surprise especially considering large deficits in Alberta, Ontario and Newfoundland.

One thing that I can't grasp is this:

Budget 2016-2017 projects a $127.4 million surplus. The surplus includes a one-time revenue increase of $110.3 million because of federal and municipal contributions for the convention centre in Halifax.

Maybe someone with an accounting degree (or anyone who understands the accounting) can explain it.

It is really a capital cost contribution.
Part of this cost should have been booked in prior years; from the effective date of the start of construction.
The government is hoping to convince the public that the surplus is $127.4 million; it's creative accounting.
And if you are on welfare you are supposed to get excited about an increase of $20 a month after several years of no increase.

[beyeas]

Atlantic Canada can become a “field of dreams” for entrepreneurs, immigrants, and international students if it can create the proper incentives to attract and retain these people, according to a report from the Association of Atlantic Universities. The report argues that Atlantic Canada will have to work especially hard to attract entrepreneurial immigrants if it wishes to address what Federal Treasury Board President Scott Brison has called a “terrifying” demographic challenge in the region. The report does, however, offer hope in the growing number of startups in the region, noting that according to one expert, the number of IT companies in the region grew by 24% in 2014-15 and employment in the sector is growing 30% per year.

http://www.academica.ca/topten
Copyright Academica Group

See also http://atlanticuniversities.ca/news/...trepreneurship


I actually found it very interesting recently in hiring a new project manager. 4 years ago when I hired the position it was slim pickings and I was lucky to get an excellent applicant (albeit one without direct experience in my area). This time around I was flooded with applicants who were really well trained, and also had experience not only in project management of medical research teams as well as direct experience in the med-tech industry. Part of this is probably job market, but also it speaks to the fact that we now have a nicely growing cluster of small companies in the med-tech field that leads to a critical mass of potential employees with relevant experience locally.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by beyeas

http://www.academica.ca/topten
Copyright Academica Group

See also http://atlanticuniversities.ca/news/...trepreneurship


I actually found it very interesting recently in hiring a new project manager. 4 years ago when I hired the position it was slim pickings and I was lucky to get an excellent applicant (albeit one without direct experience in my area). This time around I was flooded with applicants who were really well trained, and also had experience not only in project management of medical research teams as well as direct experience in the med-tech industry. Part of this is probably job market, but also it speaks to the fact that we now have a nicely growing cluster of small companies in the med-tech field that leads to a critical mass of potential employees with relevant experience locally.

Great news.
As other Canadian cities become hotbeds of property speculation we can offer a significant advantage - reasonably priced housing close to all amenities and a great place to raise a family. We should attract/steal as much talent as we can from Europe and the USA.

[fenwick16]

The following report was published by RBC on March 22, 2017. It shows annual deficits and total debt for each province. I think that Nova Scotia has done a good job of reining in its deficits over the past 20 years. During that time, 1995-1996 to 2015-2016, it has gone from $8.7 billion dollars debt to $15.1 billion, which as far as percentage increase goes, is good compared to some other provinces.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economi...rov_fiscal.pdf

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

The following report was published by RBC on March 22, 2017. It shows annual deficits and total debt for each province. I think that Nova Scotia has done a good job of reining in its deficits over the past 20 years. During that time, 1995-1996 to 2015-2016, it has gone from $8.7 billion dollars debt to $15.1 billion, which as far as percentage increase goes, is good compared to some other provinces.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economi...rov_fiscal.pdf

Low interest rates are one cause. Another boost has been income from Nova Scotians working in Alberta and spending here. Apparently the province has never released the data showing the impact of Nova Scotians commuting to the oil patch - the auto dealers and Westjet probably have the best data.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Not sure if this is the best thread in which to post this, but here goes. It sounds like things are looking up!

Nova Scotia releases largest ever capital plan, topping $1.5B

The Progressive Conservative government's first capital plan is the largest in Nova Scotia's history, with a total of more than $1.5 billion in spending, primarily on hospitals, highways and schools.

Finance Minister Allan MacMaster released the 2022-23 plan Wednesday.

"The past couple of years have been challenging but I believe we are emerging from the pandemic with a bright future," MacMaster said at a media briefing.

"Nova Scotians are seeing cranes in the sky and structures going up, and with this year's capital plan, they will see even more."

The largest share of the $1.587-billion capital plan, about $630 million, goes to health care. That includes $464.6 million for ongoing hospital projects in Cape Breton Regional Municipality and Halifax Regional Municipality.

The capital plan also includes $507.8 million for repairing or building highways, bridges and roads, as was announced earlier this year in the five-year highway plan.

Public schools will get $175.3 million this year for renovations, and design and construction of new buildings. Gone from this year's capital plan is money to buy back schools built through public-private partnerships. The last of those buildings were purchased in 2021-22.

Absent from the capital budget is any spending on affordable housing, but MacMaster said that will be addressed in the coming budget.

"Our intent is clear, we want to invest money to increase the supply of housing," MacMaster said, referring back to his government's announcement of a $35-million housing strategy last fall.

He said it's too soon to tell how well that strategy is working.

MacMaster said long-term care, also left out of the capital plan, would also get attention in this year's budget.

[atbw]

Hopefully we see funding for BRT included in the budget. The province is the missing 1/3 of the funding pie.

[Keith P.]

Hold on to your wallets. Between the unholy union of Justin and Jagmeet, and now this, somebody has to pay for all this spending.