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Originally Posted by BabydaddyATL
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Hey there, sorry for the very late reply, but it's been an INSANE week. Now that it's Friday I have a chance to breathe (but don't tell anyone!).
You query to me is if I could determine whether other carriers fail and go out of business or merge to form 2 or 3 major carriers is better for the Aviation industry on the whole? Sheesh, if I could answer that question that I would be the most sought after airline employee in the world! *hehe* Well in terms of how the general economy is performing and expected trends in the short run, I would say that it is better for the industry for the carriers to merge. Why? Because of the customer. Let me explain:
Airline travellers (our customers) have gotten used to various things within the industry. Post-deregulation, airlines had to truly compete in a plane-eat-plane world, i.e. pack the passengers on and charge them as much as possible but focus on load factors (the % of seats filled on various legs (the short definition, mind you!)). How to accomplish this? Brand marketing is important for one (Raise your hand if Gershwin's "
Rhapsody in Blue" makes you think of a particular carrier), but also market presence. What if you wanted for sweet old Aunt Joan who never plans on leaving her lovely mountain home in Western Montana to visit you for the holidays here in lovely Atlanta? "Well, sweetie, thanks for wanting to fly me to see you, but what is an AirTran? Is that like an Air TraIn? (I have heard that company referred to as such)" Airlines do not like that sort of thing. An airline will try to extend its marketing footprint to include a greater catchment area, i.e. have as many potential customers have knowledge of their existence. This was accomplished by the Regional jet revolution and allowed for markets such as Appleton/Outagamie County Airport (bonus points if you know where that one is without research!) to have non-stop JET (ahh, gotta love marketing!) service to Atlanta, among a host of other destination-pairs. Customers liked this and airlines responded by flooding the market with more regional aircraft routes to smaller communities continent-wide linked to the massive hubs.
And this is where the story turns. More seats on light routes meant that airlines, in order to turn profits (the point of being in a business), had to fill up these flights. Well goodness, how does one fill up a 70-seater CL-65 (look it up!) three times a day from Atlanta to ATW? Or how about Kalispell, MT to SLC? Or Eugene/Bend, OR to SFO? The answer was to lower the fares drastically. By drastically lowering the initial fares, airlines were able to not only attract their potential customers due to enlarging catchment areas, but also were able to induce non-fliers to become potential customers. A family of four from Coeur d'Alene, ID always went skiing in the local mountains for holiday. Well, heck, airlines like Frontier and Alaska offered connecting service to Denver and Seattle (respectively) to head on down to Cancun/Mazatlan/Acapulco/San Jose del Cabo/take your pick! And off the family of four, who paid generally about $99o/w that was snagged from cheapasstickets.com or some other outlet. And they LIKED it! And they began to expect that ticket prices remained low. And this then translated to flying from New York to Seattle for $99o/w. And now airplanes were totally full, which led to less actions for recourse should the system suffer hiccups (such as hell-acious blizzards, hurricanes, earthquakes, tornado outbreaks, the Apocalypse, what have you!), which led to irate travellers, which led to people demanding certain services for the lower prices paid (N.B. many 'issues' that one hears travellers gripe about rarely occur with high fare classes and business/first class tickets).
I feel as if I have just ended a rendition of "The Farmer in the Dell."
So now that you have received a super-cursory primer in aviation logistics and economics, let us approach the question again. By merging the carriers to form super-carriers, yes, the fares will go up. But the range of service wouldn't. You see, someone has to do something with all that metal flying around. Merging carriers ensures that the majority of the aircraft remains flying and that service cuts in operation are not extreme. If carriers were allowed to fail in a precipitous manner, the market would be setback with MASSIVE supply shocks in a negative manner, and the demand would be in flux. The goal is to always return to the long run aggregate supply curve where supply and demand and prices are in equilibrium. Deregulation had the intention of doing this. I will leave the decision to you all to determine whether or not we are moving in the right direction. So basically:
Merge carriers: Fares would go up but more slowly, operational cuts but not drastic, supply right-sized without the constant threat of a super-multilateral front
Let carriers fail: Fares would skyrocket due to heavy fall in supply, operational cuts way more drastic (less personnel, equipment, etc, requires much less flights), businesses which rely on air travel will be hurt the most as their costs of doing business would shoot up proportionally.
Whew! I thought I left work today...I guess I brought it home with me.
Talk amongst yourselves now. Discuss!!