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  #2481  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2010, 6:08 AM
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^ jlousa, got any insight on this?


Expenses for building maintenance and security and other costs will add as much as $1.5 million a month to the multi-million-dollar interest payments. Moreover, the court-appointed receiver Ernst & Young has the power to borrow up to $7.5 million to carry out its job.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business...#ixzz15hpJxPQT
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  #2482  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2010, 6:31 AM
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I don't have the privilege of knowing the actual numbers, but if we take the $1.5M/month as true, we do know that the city borrowed the money at 2.9% which would tack on another $1.8M/month there.

They are now looking at a carrying cost of $3.3M per month. With that the city also now gets all the rental income for the retail units as well as the existing rental units and any other units they decide to rent out. It will not be enough to cover those costs though by my rough calculation, so we can predict that the receiver will recommend selling inventory.
Interestingly that the numbers do not work because the high end/large units wouldn't be able to generate enough rental revenue to pay their expenses, yet the smaller/less high end units would cashflow, but they are the also the easiest units to offload.
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  #2483  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2010, 7:07 PM
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awvan --
I feel like I largely agree with you. I further apologize ending my last post with what in retrospect sounded rude.

on the subject of pre-sales:
Interesting point, I'm not sure how large a cohort there is of people with enough savings for a deposit, and who in 2 more years would have saved enough for a mortgage down payment without relying on appreciation. Generally I would expect it to be a small factor given that it should be a subset of first time buyers who themselves are a small fraction of the market. However maybe it's much more significant when house prices aren't 2-3x after tax income.
----
short version:
The City of Vancouver traded a $350MM buffer against losses for a $30MM buffer against losses, and received nothing in return. Everything else from LEED to social housing is secondary to this.
----
long version:
As I see them, the problems with the Olympic Village can be separated into 2 stages:

Stage 1. Asking for so much from the developers. LEED standards, social housing (implicitly funded by profits on the land sale), a late starting date, and the soil remediation costs/time (which I expect was the Malek's last bargaining chip.) Council did find someone to bid what they asked, but they should have anticipated the problems the 'winner' would have. It was a high risk proposition, and even if it paid off for the city leaving your 'partners' lying in the gutter is not good for continuing relationships with other developers.

Stage 2. Paying off Fortress in full. The City of Vancouver traded a $350MM margin of safety for what turned out to be a $30MM one (using jlousa's estimate.) Unless they were absolutely certain of repayment, this is inexcusable. It would not be surprising, based on illegal kickbacks in other municipal jurisdictions, if there was bribery involved. Even poor advice from outside counsel would be subject to gross negligence. There seems to be no explanation for paying off Fortress unless Vancouver escaped any losses.

By paying off Fortress, they lowered the interest rate from 11% to 3%. As far as I know, Vancouver got nothing in exchange for that. If that led to increased profits on the project, that would have accrued to Millennium and not the city. I don't know how the equity in the project stands today, but I expect Millennium is done with the project after the est. $30MM payout, and now any upside would accrue to the city along with the loss they were already exposed to.

Once Lehman went bankrupt and Fortress was in crisis, it no longer mattered what mistakes were made in stage 1. The city had a project it dreamed of lined up, and it would have paid for itself with Fortress/Lehman contributing the balance. Social housing, LEED, whatever expenses... they, and not the City of Vancouver would be paying for it. If they considered it worthwhile to make cutbacks in the project, then they could have made an offer to the City of Vancouver.

I personally believe it would make more sense to have built more social housing units elsewhere, than to splurge on the budget of 252 units. I'm not against or afraid of mixed-income neighbourhoods, they're already out there with every basement suite. If the goal is a mixed-income neighbourhood, I think the way to achieve that is by a range of forms/sizes and not an ongoing rent subsidy which I believe backfires in many ways. Watch what happens in London as their housing subsidy scheme unwinds.

I believe the only significant problem with the OV as it stands today is price. When there are cutbacks to social housing, the only thing I see is an attempt to cover losses that have no reason to exist. As such, instead of a sign of prudence, it is a mark of obscene profligacy.

The city can try and hold on to its units as long as possible, hoping to benefit from the hyper-local increase in value that should occur given the completion of various projects in the area. However I believe the longer they hold their units the greater the risk is from general market forces, cementing of a fear for moving into an empty building, and continuing cashflow losses. Better to take a manageable and known loss today, than to moonlight as a real estate investor with a very public and weak hand to hold out. The rate of sales thus far represents a complete lack of exit strategy. The sooner the OV fills out, the sooner the city can proceed with developing its surrounding lands.

I'm worried that political fears will delay what a normal investor or developer would do in the same situation.

----
OV social housing:
126 market rate rentals for certain city employees
126 non-market rental administered by some group
100 "modest market housing", is that still around, and what are they, smaller units?
(entire village is 1100 units for reference)
----
The collateral Millennium posted:
I gather it's in the form of real estate, how long will the city take to sell it?

Last edited by golog; Nov 19, 2010 at 7:58 PM. Reason: added bit about how process to date is demonstrates no exit strategy
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  #2484  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 7:57 AM
red_lantern red_lantern is offline
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Solution...move the social housing to Point Grey!

Once the social housing moves to Point Grey and the NIMBY PG residents get forced to accept reality then they can sell the units at Millennium at market rates.

It will be fun for the rest of us to watch those PG residents cry in their caviar and champaign. lol
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  #2485  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by red_lantern View Post
Once the social housing moves to Point Grey and the NIMBY PG residents get forced to accept reality then they can sell the units at Millennium at market rates.

It will be fun for the rest of us to watch those PG residents cry in their caviar and champaign. lol
No no no... build laneway houses as social housing in Point Grey!
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  #2486  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 6:01 PM
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Millennium Water pre-sale buyer crying foul

Article removed due to copyright infringement. Please follow forum rules about posting articles.

_________________________

Silly pre-sale buyers, thinking because the market falls they can get their money back....lol I wonder if I can get out of my mutual fund now that it has gone done too...lol

There'e all so silly, in a pre-sale the sales agent will say anything to make the sale. They are just all sour that the market has gone down.

Nobody wants 600 and 700 thousand dollar condos anymore, they just don't sell. Develpers have to change their strategy and build the 300 and 400 thousand dollar homes if they want to sell in this market.

Last edited by jlousa; Nov 21, 2010 at 6:29 PM.
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  #2487  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 6:58 PM
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Quote:
Develpers have to change their strategy and build the 300 and 400 thousand dollar homes if they want to sell in this market.
They do as we have seen a number of projects were redesigned with lower price points such as Maynards Block, James, and Wall SEFC.

I think many pre-sale purchasers at the Village thought the social housing component is isolated in a section not being mixed in most of the buildings, as it is known now. I remember the sale rep I talked to back then said only owners would have access when asked if all residents including those in the social housing component would be able to access the amenities such as swimming pool, gym, etc.

A good friend of mine was seriously considered buying into the Village (to live in) back then and decided not to due to unclear social housing information and high price.
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  #2488  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 7:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hanko View Post
I think many pre-sale purchasers at the Village thought the social housing component is isolated in a section not being mixed in most of the buildings, as it is known now. I remember the sale rep I talked to back then said only owners would have access when asked if all residents including those in the social housing component would be able to access the amenities such as swimming pool, gym, etc.
I thought
a) the social housing was going to be in the building with green glass
b) there were no pool/gym amenities, other than in the nearby community centre
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  #2489  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 9:58 PM
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if you walk around the village you can see the gym and pool and they are not in the community centre they are in some of the buildings not sure which ones but they are viewable from public areas
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  #2490  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 11:11 PM
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There are some small gyms in at least some buildings, but I don't know of any with pools

http://vancouver.ca/commsvcs/southeast/devapps/ has the development plans

Parcel 5 is the social housing. One building with non-market, one with modest market. I noticed shared laundry in the non-market building's plan.

I'd be interested to know if the social housing is now scattered throughout. I haven't heard of a change in that regard, and that would seem to raise huge problems due to design and pricing. Do you have a source hanko?

It seems like there is a lot of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt being passed on when people make up excuses to deflect instead of being comfortable in admitting the price was too expensive.

If I'm wrong, by all means please do correct me since the reason I visit these forums is to learn about developments as a passing hobby.
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  #2491  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 11:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golog View Post
It seems like there is a lot of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt being passed on when people make up excuses to deflect instead of being comfortable in admitting the price was too expensive.
I really hope this isn't the case. You'd have to be a real jackass to be too proud to admit that an OV condo is too expensive, and a special kind of uber-jackass to blame poor people instead.
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  #2492  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2010, 11:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golog View Post
There are some small gyms in at least some buildings, but I don't know of any with pools

http://vancouver.ca/commsvcs/southeast/devapps/ has the development plans

Parcel 5 is the social housing. One building with non-market, one with modest market. I noticed shared laundry in the non-market building's plan.

I'd be interested to know if the social housing is now scattered throughout. I haven't heard of a change in that regard, and that would seem to raise huge problems due to design and pricing. Do you have a source hanko?

It seems like there is a lot of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt being passed on when people make up excuses to deflect instead of being comfortable in admitting the price was too expensive.

If I'm wrong, by all means please do correct me since the reason I visit these forums is to learn about developments as a passing hobby.
i've stood and looked at the pool myself through the window its there near one of the interior courtyards
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  #2493  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2010, 1:26 AM
hanko hanko is offline
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Quote:
Do you have a source hanko?
I remember reading an article of The Sun about a month ago where it described the non-market component is being scattered in few buildings. The article has an illustration of buildings labeling with alphabetic characters showing which one with non-market component included. I did not attempt to separate non-market vs. social since I would not buy there. I would love to live in the area.
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  #2494  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2010, 1:28 AM
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the green one is social - i don't think they wuill have buildings that have market and social housing in them though
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  #2495  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2010, 8:33 AM
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Olympic Village - Social Housing

The building with the green balconies are definately the social housing, I think there's 2 of them...and that's all the social housing in the village, the other's around Walter Hardwick avenue are the Millennium Rentals. I'm not too sure if they share the Millennium Fitness Centre and pool, does anyone know if they share this?
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  #2496  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2010, 9:52 PM
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hi all~ I've been reading all the posts, articles, and updates regarding the O.V. and it's surrounding developments, greatly appreciated.

Just wondering if anyone can shed some light, after the news about now Olympic Village is into receivership, does anyone know for the existing residents in the buildings, who will be in charge of the building maintenance and deficiencies going forward? (It was Crosby listed as the property management company)

thank you!!
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  #2497  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2010, 11:10 PM
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Regarding the non-condo component of the project, my understanding is that the green building is non-market and designed for families, the grey building beside it is 100% rental with some family sized suites, the white building beside the Salt Building has rental on the side facing First and non-market senior's housing on the side facing Walter Hardwick way. I cannot recall hearing or reading about non-condo, rental or non-market, units in any other buildings. It's also worth remembering that these are non-market units, which does mean some some form of rent reduction or subsidy indexed to income, but they are not supportive housing for the homeless or mentally ill.

Regarding maintenance and security in the receivership phase of the Olympic Village, I understand that the City will be paying the strata fees until the units are sold and it is up to the receiver, which is Ernst and Young, to decide whether the current maintenance, security, garbage, insurance, etc., contracts will be maintained. Just be happy that we have way better legal protections for condo owners here than in Michigan. There the developer is required to pay the condo association (strata) fees until 75% of the building is sold. Once the developer goes broke and the mortgage holder take it over it is their responsibility to pay the strata fees until the units are sold. From what I have read that is just not happening. At all. So the few owners in the units are either forced to carry all the utility and insurance costs themselves or let them lapse and hope for the best.
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Last edited by SFUVancouver; Nov 22, 2010 at 11:48 PM.
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  #2498  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 12:21 AM
Micky Luv Micky Luv is offline
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O.V. Maintenance Fee

Quote:
Originally Posted by SFUVancouver View Post
Regarding maintenance and security in the receivership phase of the Olympic Village, I understand that the City will be paying the strata fees until the units are sold and it is up to the receiver, which is Ernst and Young, to decide whether the current maintenance, security, garbage, insurance, etc., contracts will be maintained. Just be happy that we have way better legal protections for condo owners here than in Michigan. There the developer is required to pay the condo association (strata) fees until 75% of the building is sold. Once the developer goes broke and the mortgage holder take it over it is their responsibility to pay the strata fees until the units are sold. From what I have read that is just not happening. At all. So the few owners in the units are either forced to carry all the utility and insurance costs themselves or let them lapse and hope for the best.
Hi SFU thanks so much for the insight, this helps greatly. At this transitional period of time it's just unfortunate for owners who have deficiencies in their unit and things are still being figured out by the developer, COV and Ernest and Young in whether we will be responsible for the units deficiency. It's sort of a 'peace of mind' feeling knowing that COV will be covering the strata fees for now. I heard from Crosby that all in-suite deficiencies/defects will now be handled by Ernest & Young but exactly how and who it will be handled is unknown until things settle down, which might take weeks or months... I know a few units are having issues with their heating system which doesn't provide enough heat. With tonight's temperature expected to drop 12 degrees below zero I wonder for urgent issues like this who can come to aid since the developer Millennium is now gone so are the contractors hired by them... A very unfortunate situation for the existing owners of the O.V.
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  #2499  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 1:51 AM
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yeah social or low income housing doesn't usually mean its homeless which most people seem to think it is - a lot of people unable to work due to an injury or something like that can apply to live in social housing, fixed income people

the TV report on global that i saw a while back said a lot of it was being set aside for firemen, nurses, healthcare workers, policemen as well - is that included in the social housing component or the market rental part?
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  #2500  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 7:49 AM
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Everything you ever wanted to know about co-ops

^ Those "essential service" workers would absolutely be going into the rental units and not the social housing, unless they somehow qualify for income support due to long term disability, etc.

The operator for the non-market housing is going to be the Co-op federation of BC, which is the perfect group, in my opinion. I grew up in a couple of co-ops and I know a fair amount about them and I might be able to help explain how they work and how they can be considered non-market housing.

By definition co-ops are mixed income communities with the majority of members paying market rental rates for their monthly housing charge. This monthly housing charge covers all of the co-ops costs, such as insurance, lease and/or mortgage payments, utilities, etc. Nearly all co-ops are self managed and all co-op members are expected to volunteer in some capacity to the daily life of the co-op, so gardening, security, special events, minor repairs, strategic financial planning, etc., are performed by members who volunteer on various committees. With that said, nearly all co-ops also contract serious/heavy building maintenance to reputable property management companies and contract law firms and accounting firms to address insurance and liability, and financial management issues, respectively. The operational costs for co-ops are lower than most stratas because the co-op members simply do more work that would typically be contracted out by a strata council. Co-ops also usually had their land originally provided for them by the City, Province, or Federal Government and lease payments are made to the appropriate level of government in addition to municipal property taxes. The co-ops also carry and pay down the mortgages that were taken out to finance the construction of their buildings and depending on who orchestrated the creation of the co-op the mortgages may have been private or public via CMHC. What co-ops typically do not carry is the financial burden of buying the land.

The majority of people who live in co-ops pay the full monthly housing charge, which is mostly analogous to rent but reflects only the cost of operating the co-op, paying the mortgage, contractors, etc., and does not include a profit margin for the owner of a rental building. The full monthly housing charge does include a small amount of surplus beyond the total cost of operating the co-op and this surplus is used by the co-op to provide "shallow subsidy" for people whose incomes are insufficient for them to pay the full housing charge without consuming more than a certain percentage of their income, the level for which varies from co-op to co-op based on a bunch of factors. Most people who fall into the shallow subsidy group do so for relatively short periods of time, such as during a period of under- or unemployment, or when one parent stays home to raise a newborn, as a couple examples. The number of shallow subsidies available within a co-op is usually capped to a certain percentage of the overall co-op membership, about 15% to 20%, and is structured in such a way that the surplus from the 60% to 75% of people in the co-op at the market rate are able to cover it.

For those whose incomes require additional financial support beyond the internally financed shallow subsidy there is an option for deep subsidy, which is financed by the level of government that created the co-op, which is usually the Federal or Provincial Government. The number of deep subsidies available within a co-op is very limited and is really driven by the level of financial support available from government. The co-ops from the 70s that were created by CMHC typically have more deep subsidy available to them than the more recent ones created in the 90s and 2000s by the Provincial Government. CMHC's plan for its co-ops is that when the co-ops mortgages are retired they will be able to direct that portion of their budget to those on deep subsidy, thereby ending the government's role in providing any subsidy to the co-op.

Co-ops in Canada do require a share purchase by members but it is entirely different than co-ops in New York, for example, where the share purchase may be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. To the best of my knowledge the share purchases that are required in BC co-ops is in the low thousands and is really more of a large security deposit than a financial asset. The co-op's shares are kept in trust for members and are not available for any financial reason to the co-op for unexpected costs, etc.

Most well run co-ops factor in very healthy replacement and repair reserves to their overall budgets and these are built up as part of the monthly housing charge. The co-ops leverage their collective buying power to do ongoing maintenance, like having a professional carpet cleaning company do the carpets for the whole co-op, for those who have carpets, or to buy appliances, floorings, paint, etc. Usually the committee that addresses looks after the replacement reserve provides several options when it comes time to do a purchase. As an example, my mother's co-op recently decided to replace all the fridges with newer, more efficient, and just plain nicer. Members could opt-out of the whole project if they liked their old fridge or had purchased a fridge on their own. They could choose the fridge that the volunteer committee was recommending after having done research, received competitive quotes, etc. Or they could purchase a fridge of their choosing through the selected appliance provider and pay the difference out of pocket between the selected mid-range fridge and the one of their choice, which would still be offered at a lower sticker price than regular retail since the co-op was buying a hundred fridges and could negotiate a better price. The same sort of thing happened fairly recently for cabinets and flooring.

Anyway, ultimately co-ops appeal to people who like the community it fosters, who like knowing their neighbours and working with them on projects and having countless liters of coffee and mountains of biscuits in each other's kitchens and living rooms. They offer a clever way to provide both community and a higher standard of living for people who are relatively lower income than they would likely be able to afford in the private rental market. They offer security of tenure and there is no fear of eviction, ever, due to renovations or conversion to condos, which looms over many rental properties. Of course the co-op retains full rights to evict people who are causing problems. They offer an efficient way for society to provide shallow subsidies for people, especially families, that would be under-housed or experience tenure insecurity in the private rental market due to fluctuations in their income. And they provide the apparatus to ensure that direct financial subsidies for people requiring deep subsidy actually goes to housing and not into drugs, alcohol, etc., since the payments are made to the co-op directly instead of the individual. Plus, by definition, the person/family is part of a community and if a co-op is working properly you should never be able to know which members are receiving any form of subsidy and the records are kept strictly confidential by the legal or accounting firm that does the co-ops books. The one gigantic trade-off of living in a co-op is that one does not build up equity in their home. Some of those who live in co-ops and pay the full housing charge may well be able to buy a place if they chose to, but most members would likely be in a renting position for most of their lives. Moreover, many people choose to remain in their co-op after they have transitioned from a time of shallow or even deep subsidy to the full housing charge, and they do so because most co-ops are a genuine community and people love them intensely.

For the Olympic Village the co-op model would work very well despite there being multiple buildings since the co-op is member-oriented. The co-op that is created in the Olympics Village will likely choose to have the shallow and deep subsidy members settle in whatever building is appropriate for them; families in the green building with its two, three and four bedroom units, seniors in the senior's building with its age-friendly fixtures, etc. There may also be a lot of families in the green building paying the full housing charge and senior's doing likewise in the senior's building. Committee meetings will take place in living rooms and the AGM in the community centre. It's a pretty great model for the place and I'm thrilled to pieces that the co-op federation of BC got the contract. In fairness, they are going to take a wait and see approach for the two rental buildings for a year and half before deciding if they will incorporate them into the co-op, which I think has committed to multiple decades when it was chosen by the City and paid out the twenty-plus million dollar lease for the first two buildings to the City up front. The co-op will then pay back the co-op federation with the money that would have otherwise gone to the City for leasing the land.

Hope that helped answer some questions.
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