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  #21  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 8:45 PM
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^ Probably, but 1) it's fun to think about and 2) it's a preconstruction thread for a reason. It keeps all the wild speculation from the "real" news threads.

I can't even remember the last tower that has even made as much remote progress as these have had besides the unsubstantiated previous blurb about one or two Colliers hotel towers. Other than that, there has been so few developments regarding new high-rises over the last 4 years...

As for another block with one building on it--if my guesses are accurate, Golub would be the biggest building by far in Phoenix. Twice as wide as 1CPE (which is already pretty wide) and 150' taller? We don't have anything remotely as big as that in Phoenix.

4 - 5 towers a block means a mishmash of skinny junk with obstructed views that wouldn't even get built anyways--floorplates need to be much larger for new office towers these days than they have in the past.
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  #22  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 8:53 PM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combusean View Post
4 - 5 towers a block means a mishmash of skinny junk with obstructed views that wouldn't even get built anyways--floorplates need to be much larger for new office towers these days than they have in the past.
When I go to big cities, that's how everything is. Most blocks in Chicago in the loop have 4-5-6 buildings on them.
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  #23  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:15 PM
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Well, yeah, you might see 4 or 5 buildings but at most 2 or 3 towers.

But I agree, anyways--the block that 44 Monroe is on is the best downtown. I wish there were more like that, but Phoenix has an obvious dearth of vintage low/midrises like the San Carlos that make that template realistic.
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  #24  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:18 PM
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Originally Posted by PHX31 View Post
Land prices aren't really that low, compared to the low demand. It seems like there are still way too many speculators holding and artifically inflating the $ of empty lots in Phoenix.

I think there are other zoning rules which would prohibit multiple towers on one block (air rights or density rules or something (?)). I'm not completely in the know with zoning laws, but I don't think we'll ever see 4 new towers on one block downtown under current zoning.
You are correct about land values--land in downtown Phoenix is quite expensive for what it is and about average compared to far more developed cities.

I don't think there is anything in the zoning that outright prevents 4 towers on one block, it's just that small (10000sqft floorplate) office towers don't get built anymore.
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  #25  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:33 PM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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Originally Posted by combusean View Post
Well, yeah, you might see 4 or 5 buildings but at most 2 or 3 towers.

But I agree, anyways--the block that 44 Monroe is on is the best downtown. I wish there were more like that, but Phoenix has an obvious dearth of vintage low/midrises like the San Carlos that make that template realistic.
Maybe because I live in Phoenix, I consider anything over about 5 stories a tower. LOL.

Quit trying to get into semantic arguments with me, Sean, it's annoying. You're like the little kid that follows people around correcting them when they're wrong. Nobody likes to hear it.
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  #26  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:37 PM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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Originally Posted by PHX31 View Post
Land prices aren't really that low, compared to the low demand. It seems like there are still way too many speculators holding and artifically inflating the $ of empty lots in Phoenix.

I think there are other zoning rules which would prohibit multiple towers on one block (air rights or density rules or something (?)). I'm not completely in the know with zoning laws, but I don't think we'll ever see 4 new towers on one block downtown under current zoning.
I meant low compared to the cities I was thnking of as big cities. Compared to Chicago, New York, San Francisco, etc. Phoenix has low enough cost and demand to dictate suburban buildings downtown.
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  #27  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Vicelord John View Post
Maybe because I live in Phoenix, I consider anything over about 5 stories a tower. LOL.

Quit trying to get into semantic arguments with me, Sean, it's annoying. You're like the little kid that follows people around correcting them when they're wrong. Nobody likes to hear it.
Bipolar much? You laugh at yourself than yell at me. Use the right words for the discussion. We were talking about towers.
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  #28  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 9:56 PM
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Bipolar much? You laugh at yourself than yell at me. Use the right words for the discussion. We were talking about towers.
again semantics, you knew what I meant. Slow your roll.
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  #29  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 10:10 PM
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So we have a whole thread on what amounts to a real estate presentation to a potential tenant?

I have no doubt that both Collier and Golub are working on tower designs for their plots, but the notion that either are imminent due to the fact that they are shopping for tenants is way jumping the gun.

I hope I'm wrong about that. I hope Collier really has enough tenants currently to begin construction on Two Collier Center or that Golub is far along in the process. But neither has filed even a planning application with the City (HX would have let us know I'm sure) so both of these supposed projects would seem to be pretty far out in terms of delivery date.

And the Collier Hotel stump? I guarantee they are looking for a city handout. Hard to get in the current market.

Like I said, I hope I'm totally wrong about this. But four new towers? I'd be shocked if even two of them are built.
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  #30  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2012, 10:20 PM
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So we have a whole thread on what amounts to a real estate presentation to a potential tenant?
Shhhh we're desperate!

Quote:
Originally Posted by plinko View Post
But four new towers? I'd be shocked if even two of them are built.
Come now, you know PHX better than that. 4 proposed, 1 will be built...2 would be time for rejoicing.
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  #31  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 12:05 AM
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Plinko ... I don't think anybody's saying they're imminent. Nobody really knows how long Two Collier has been brewing. It's been 4 months since Golub even made their announcement that they're building on the 2nd Ave/Monroe block, so it's reasonable to believe that between the two they might have an idea of a massing/preprogramming at least.

As far as permit applications go ... has anyone been looking? I will poke around this afternoon.
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  #32  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 6:10 AM
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Where do you get your figures from?
I got it from the leasing agent's site:

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  #33  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 9:13 PM
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I was looking at those listings...what struck me was the dearth of class A space available. If a company's looking for *a lot* of space, their only realistic option at this time is that Chandler 101 midrise complex.

There is no shortage of Class B space, with University of Phoenix leaving the Hohokam Center/Sky Harbor Towers complex with 230,000 square feet and United Healthcare leaving Park Central with 220,000 square feet, and there are just gluts of medium sized spaces in the central city. ... Maybe Park Central's better off converting that vacant space back to retail.

So if Phoenix wants to land a major/large new tenant in the coming years, one of the office buildings in this thread will have to get built or we'll lose it to sprawlsville chandler.
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  #34  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2012, 2:50 AM
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^^^Chandler is nearly built out and land locked at this point, right?
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  #35  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2012, 3:16 AM
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^ Yup. It's ... interesting to see that place fill up. Airport commerce centers, beltway commercial, a downtown that's sorta picking up. Way out of my neck of the woods these days...
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  #36  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2012, 8:40 PM
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Since we were discussing office vacancy rates...

Phoenix office vacancy rate tops 28 percent
Phoenix Business Journal by Mike Sunnucks, Senior Reporter
Date: Thursday, April 12, 2012, 12:59pm MST

More than 28 percent of the commercial office space in the Phoenix area is vacant. A first quarter commercial real estate report by Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial shows the Valley’s office vacancy rate at 28.2 percent.
The same Phoenix office vacancy rate was 27.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Vacancy rates before the recession and downturn were between 12 percent and 15 percent.
Absorption levels came in at nearly 91,000 square feet for the first quarter. Absorption is a real estate indicator of the amount of space leased versus the amount of space vacated during a given time period.
Some submarkets around Phoenix and classes of office space are doing better than others on the vacancy front, according to the Cassidy Turley report.
Class A and B office space in downtown Phoenix have vacancy rates of 17.2 percent and 13.9 percent, respectively.
In South Scottsdale, 16.5 percent of Class A offices are vacant. The same top-rated space in Chandler and Gilbert have only 18 percent vacancy rates. The picture isn’t as good in some of the Valley’s outlying areas.

Submarket, class of office space, vacancy rate
Glendale, A, 42.7 percent
Glendale, B, 57.8 percent
Sun City, A, 35 percent
West Phoenix, B, 45.3 percent
Superstition Corridor, B, 39 percent
Desert Ridge/N. Phoenix, A, 32 percent
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  #37  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2012, 12:14 AM
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Phoenix and Tempe expected to lead commercial real estate rebound

This article is basically just more speculation without any concrete information. It could go in this thread, the Tempe thread, the CityScape thread, or even the Phoenix thread but I figured I would put it here since there is an active discussion of new skyscrapers in DT Phoenix and the commercial vacancy rates of the Valley.

Quote:
There are continued indications that when the commercial real estate market awakens from its recession-induced slumber that downtown Phoenix and Tempe’s Mill Avenue will sound the wake-up call.

A first quarter analysis of the Phoenix-area office market by Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Service shows the Valley’s office vacancy rates at 27 percent.

That’s still an elevated rate, but there are hopes for a rebound in downtown Phoenix and Tempe.

The Lee report says downtown Phoenix has limited supply of Class A blocks of space of more than 20,000 square feet.

The same report says RED Development’s CityScape office tower is 92 percent leased. The office building is home to a number of law firms as well as Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver’s Alliance Bank.

The Lee report says Chicago-based developer Golub & Co. is still looking to develop a new office building on a parcel it owns in downtown Phoenix at Van Buren Street and 3rd Avenue. Golub was one of the Scottsdale Waterfront’s developers.

There is also continued speculation about the future for the parking lot pad in between Collier Center and CityScape, and a block of older buildings along Washington Street in between 1st and 2nd streets.

In Tempe, Ryan Cos. wants to build a third, 245,000-square-foot office tower at Hayden Ferry Lakeside on the northern end of downtown. The Lee report said like the Golub plans in Phoenix, a new Tempe development hinges on securing tenants.

First quarter numbers from Jones Lang LaSalle show the downtown office market with a 15.5 percent vacancy rate, but all of central Phoenix with nearly a 30 percent vacancy rate.

Tempe also has a 30 percent vacancy rate, according to JLL. However, it has plenty of company in other local cities where office vacancies hover between 25 percent and 30 percent. Apparently, the market continues to hit the snooze button.
PBJ
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  #38  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2012, 12:58 AM
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If I didn't know better, I'd say the author was reading this forum. Except I wonder what he would've meant by the "block of older buildings" between 1st and 2nd?
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  #39  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2012, 2:25 AM
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the night clubs???
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  #40  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2012, 2:33 AM
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That's what I'm thinking as well and my feelings on it are mixed. On one hand, I'd hate to see these buildings go because of their age but on the other hand, they really don't fit and look a bit too wild west small town with their design.
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