2011 Census Results

[someone123]

I'll start a thread here so that there's a place to discuss the Halifax results.

Here's the census table: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...=3&O=D&RPP=150

These are preliminary results that are not corrected for undercounts. The corrected data will come out sometime in 2013.

The Halifax totals are unusual in that they're inconsistent with the population estimates here: http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm
The labour force characteristics also include 2011-2011 January-January population estimates that are pretty much on par with the 2007-2010 estimates: http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/lfss04a-eng.htm

I was reading up about the methodology of the estimates. StatsCan claims that in the past they have been very close to corrected census results (0.51% in 2006), which is much closer than I thought. It seems likely that the Halifax figures will be adjusted upward substantially. I don't recall this big of a discrepancy last census though, or this sort of inconsistency between cities where some are on par with estimates and others are as much as 5% below (Winnipeg is in the same boat).

It is a bit unfortunate because we're probably in for a bunch of over the top news articles that won't take any of this into account.

[fenwick16]

Is it really inconsistencies or just that the Census numbers don't include the under-count adjustment? Based on information published by Statistics Canada, the estimates are closer to the real population than the unadjusted census numbers (some people are missed in the census counts).

[someone123]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

Is it really inconsistencies or just that the Census numbers don't include the under-count adjustment? Based on information published by Statistics Canada, the estimates are closer to the real population than the unadjusted census numbers (some people are missed in the census counts).

Yes, as I mentioned, that is definitely one factor.

What is unusual is that the results vary significantly between cities. According to the census, some cities grew faster than estimated while others had much lower growth rates than estimated. The spread is around 5-6%, which is huge. In the past the average undercount was around 3% and I believe it was fairly consistent across cities.

We still need to wait for the corrections but this does seem unusual.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by someone123

Yes, as I mentioned, that is definitely one factor.

What is unusual is that the results vary significantly between cities. According to the census, some cities grew faster than estimated while others had much lower growth rates than estimated. The spread is around 5-6%, which is huge. In the past the average undercount was around 3% and I believe it was fairly consistent across cities.

We still need to wait for the corrections but this does seem unusual.

Yes, I see what you mean. The population estimates indicate that Halifax grew by about 3.9% percent in a 3 year period (388.2K in 2007 to 403.2K in 2010 - http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm). That would be about 1.3% per year which seems to agree with monthly labour statistics. However, over a 5 year period for the census numbers, the increase was only 4.7%, which would be less than 1% per year - http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...=3&O=D&RPP=150).

Another indicator is the number of private dwellings; in the 2006 census it was 166,757 - http://www.city-data.com/canada/Halifax.html; in the 2011 census it was 177,295. If you consider the number of private dwellings then the increase was 6.3% over 5 years. I think it would be easy to get an accurate number for the number of dwellings since it is just a matter of counting the number of dwellings (but maybe the average number of people per dwelling has changed). Or, it could be that the undercount % varied between the two years.

I would have expected the HRM population change to be in the 6 - 7% range for 5 years based on all the construction that has taken place.



Here is a link to the undercount estimates for 2006 - http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...01_2_2-eng.cfm . It seems to vary quite a bit from city to city.

If the net undercount of 2.84% for Halifax in 2006 was applied to the 2011 census numbers then the HRM population would be about 390K x 1.0284 = 401K at the time of the 2011 census.

[someone123]

Here's an interesting link: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...ualite-eng.cfm

One of the advantages of the census is to provide counts for small regions (below the census division level) for which demographic estimates are not available or are less precise. On the other hand, population estimates provide a more accurate measure of population counts.

I've been looking at census tract level data a bit too: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...Lang=E&TABID=3

The map with Halifax census tract IDs is here: http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2006/...T205-B-I02.pdf

If and when I get the time I'll try adding up totals for sub-areas like Halifax Peninsula, Clayton Park, Dartmouth, and Bedford. I took a quick look at a few urban core census tracts and many have grown substantially in population. The population of the peninsula has increased significantly. Ideally I think the urban core would absorb 30% or more of population increases and existing suburbs would absorb a significant portion of the rest.

[halifaxboyns]

I'm posting this here since it's census related.

Stagnant population growth in Nova Scotia should be a wake-up call for everyone in the business community, local developers say.

According to census figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada, the province’s population base increased by 0.9 per cent from 2006 to 2011, compared with a 0.6 per cent increase during the previous five-year period.

The number of people in Halifax jumped 4.7 per cent during that time, to 390, 096. However, a 4.7 per cent decline in Cape Breton and 0.2 per cent drop in Lunenburg point to a migration to Halifax and not an increase in the number of people moving to the city from outside the province.

That is cause for concern for some developers, who think the province and Ottawa should put a greater emphasis on immigration.

“Halifax has benefited a lot from rural areas, but that’s not a good thing. I mean, it’s good for Halifax, it’s not good for the province,” Wadih Fares, president of WM Fares Group and Lebanon’s honorary consul in Halifax.

“We have to be, as developers and business people in this city and this province, we have to be concerned that our population is not increasing.

“Sure I’m worried. My business is in accommodation and if it gets to a point where there’s not enough people to rent your units or to buy your units or to buy your homes, definitely it will affect our future if you want to stay and work in Nova Scotia.”

Besim Halef of Banc Properties Ltd. called the census figures a “wake-up call” for the entire community.

“They’re pretty scary numbers,” Halef said. “If the province doesn’t increase immigration levels coming over here, we will be going in declining mode rather than increasing population, so that will affect any future development because we look, 10,15, 20 years down the road.”

The rest of the story is here.

[Halifax Hillbilly]

Here's some numbers on some sub-ares within HRM:

Peninsula: 2006 popultion = 60,628
2011 population = 62,900
Change = 2272 (+3.7%)

Dartmouth Core (bounded by circumfrential)
2006 population = 36,449
2011 population = 36009
Change = -440 (-1.2%)

Halifax Mainland North (bounded by bi-hi, kearney lake road)
2006 population = 38,102
2011 population = 40,555 (+6.4%)

Halifax Mainland South (Spryfield, Armdale, Herring Cove Road)
2006 population = 20,873
2011 population = 21,468
Change = (+2.9%)

A good portion of growth on the peninsula was in neighbourhoods adjacent to or near downtown.

[someone123]

Generally what's been happening on the peninsula is that the "urban" parts (commercial areas, medium density areas) have been adding population while the semi-suburban single housing neighbourhoods like the area around Quinpool have been slowly losing population.

The level of overall population growth on the peninsula is a bit disappointing but then again I'd expect it to be the most heavily affected by undercounts. Other peninsula residents like international students are excluded from the census entirely.

[coolmillion]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

The number of people in Halifax jumped 4.7 per cent during that time, to 390, 096. However, a 4.7 per cent decline in Cape Breton and 0.2 per cent drop in Lunenburg point to a migration to Halifax and not an increase in the number of people moving to the city from outside the province.

That is cause for concern for some developers, who think the province and Ottawa should put a greater emphasis on immigration.

The rest of the story is here.

The first part is completely inaccurate. There is no demonstrated relationship between rural decline and Halifax's growth. Outmigration is not only to Halifax but to bigger centres further west as well. Demographic shifts are also not accounted for.
Also, the actual number of the combined % decline of all the smaller centres is probably nowhere near the 4.7% gain in Halifax.

I agree with the sentiment though: Halifax does need to do a better job of attracting and retaining immigrants and young graduates. We don't need developers pockets to tell us that

[someone123]

I'm not sure if the data is available yet but to see the complete picture you have to consider natural increase, interprovincial migration, migration within NS, and immigration.

The idea that there is some kind of zero sum game going on in NS so every new person in Halifax came from somewhere like Cape Breton has been around for as long as I can remember and was not particularly true during past census periods. As you said, obviously it doesn't even make sense on the face of it since the CBRM population is only 1/4 or so of the HRM population, and most other areas have not declined much.

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by Halifax Hillbilly

Here's some numbers on some sub-ares within HRM:

Peninsula: 2006 popultion = 60,628
2011 population = 62,900
Change = 2272 (+3.7%)

Dartmouth Core (bounded by circumfrential)
2006 population = 36,449
2011 population = 36009
Change = -440 (-1.2%)

This is the data I found most interesting, because this is the HRM regional centre. I had wondered what the regional centre combined population was - so this is interesting to see we're pretty near 100,000 already, but I'm not surprised the Dartmouth number dropped. Although 1.2% isn't that bad.

Considering the number of developments either under construction/being considered, this number should change by the next census and reverse.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

This is the data I found most interesting, because this is the HRM regional centre. I had wondered what the regional centre combined population was - so this is interesting to see we're pretty near 100,000 already, but I'm not surprised the Dartmouth number dropped. Although 1.2% isn't that bad.

Considering the number of developments either under construction/being considered, this number should change by the next census and reverse.

The census tract level data is particularly interesting because you can match population growth to new development. The tract that has Gladstone Ridge for example grew substantially more than other neighbouring areas. That's a development with maybe 1,000 people or more that on its own really has an impact.

One tract that surprised me was the one in the deep South End that includes Point Pleasant Park -- it was up by 15%.

King's Wharf is going to make a difference on its own in Dartmouth. It is going to have approximately 1,300 residential units, which could easily work out to 2,000 or more inhabitants. Had that been built out from 2005-2010 we would have been looking at a 4% growth rate in Dartmouth rather than a 1% decline. Decisions on development really do have a big impact on the city.

[spaustin]

Originally Posted by coolmillion

The first part is completely inaccurate. There is no demonstrated relationship between rural decline and Halifax's growth. Outmigration is not only to Halifax but to bigger centres further west as well. Demographic shifts are also not accounted for.
Also, the actual number of the combined % decline of all the smaller centres is probably nowhere near the 4.7% gain in Halifax.

I agree with the sentiment though: Halifax does need to do a better job of attracting and retaining immigrants and young graduates. We don't need developers pockets to tell us that

Exactly! The shift away from the rural areas has been undereway for a long, long time. Back in 1851, 13% of Canada's population lived in urban areas. It's now 81%! The rural population is still growing, but it's disproportionate. Rural areas in Southern Ontario with access to Toronto, for example, are growing whereas more remote places like much of Newfoundland are in decline. For Nova Scotia, the key question is what would happen if people weren't moving to Halifax? Would they just stay home? Doesn't seem likely. Without Halifax, the province would be in real trouble as the whole place would be in decline. Without Halifax, everyone would be moving to Ontario or Alberta. Halifax gives our province a fighting chance.

On the more local level, hopefully King's Wharf will turn things around in Dartmouth. If Downtown Dartmouth is going to come back, it's going to need more people living there.

[Halifax Hillbilly]

Originally Posted by spaustin

On the more local level, hopefully King's Wharf will turn things around in Dartmouth. If Downtown Dartmouth is going to come back, it's going to need more people living there.

The Downtown Dartmouth census tract grew (+2.6%), but unlike peninsular Halifax the adjacent census tracts around the Dartmouth Common (-5.9%), Brightwood Golf Club (-4.6%) and North End Dartmouth (-6.3%) all had declines. Like the declining areas on the peninsula these tracts are mostly single family. More importantly, unlike the peninsula these are noticeable drops. The North End will probably see multi-unit infill but unless Brightwood gets developed the other census tracts will likely be stagnant. Maybe there will be a big inlfux of new families to increase the people per unit but that will only go so far. I don't think the drops in some census tracts are a big problem, as long as they represent the regualar cycles of neighbourhoods and not abandonement. The single family areas around the common and the golf course are all strong neighbourhoods.

The biggest problem with Downtown Dartmouth to me is how isolated it is from the North End - the Commons cuts it off completely. The only real connections to the rest of Dartmouth are Prince Albert Road and Portland Street. It would be nice to have more of a main street feel on either of those connector streets but that's a long way off, better to infill the downtown proper.

[Halifax Hillbilly]

Originally Posted by someone123

The census tract level data is particularly interesting because you can match population growth to new development. The tract that has Gladstone Ridge for example grew substantially more than other neighbouring areas. That's a development with maybe 1,000 people or more that on its own really has an impact.

It's important to be careful what conclusions are drawn from single census tracts though. Some of them have only 2000 to 3000 people. Easy for one development to have a big impact due to the small sample size.

That said as a whole the picture for the peninsula is entirely positive, especially since I think it continues a trend that began with the 2006 census - increasing population around the downtown core. As Someone123 points out as well there are a lot of students not counted that add to the population and the vibrancy of the area.

[Halifax Hillbilly]

More census data. Not meant to be exhaustive or definitive, just an overview of what's going on. If anyone wants more detail let me know.

Bedford

2001 Population: 18,263
2006 Population: 19,962
2011 Populatoin: 23,963

2006 to 2011: Gain of 3974 (+19.9%)
2001 to 2011: Gain of 5673 (31.1%)

Sackville
2001 Population: 28,389
2006 Population: 27,894
2011 Population: 27,894

2006 to 2011: No Change (quite the fluke)
2001 to 2011: Loss of 495 (-1.7%)

Suburban Darmouth/ Cole Harbour/ Eastern Passage
2001 Population: 46,560
2006 Population: 48,612
2011 Population: 50,641

2006 to 2011: Gain of 2029 (+4.2%)
2001 to 2011: Gain of 4081 (+8.8%)

Continuous Urban Area
2006: 252,520
2011: 263,403

2006 to 2011: Gain of 10,883 (+4.3%)

The continuos urban area is based on the numbers I posted for Halifax, Bedford, Dartmouth, Cole Harbour, Eastern Passage, Bedford and Sackville. I guess it's a rough estimate of the continuous urban and suburban development around Halifax. It's a bit of an underestimate and doesn't include places like Timberlea or parts of Hammonds Plains that could be included.

[q12]

Originally Posted by someone123

It is a bit unfortunate because we're probably in for a bunch of over the top news articles that won't take any of this into account.

Census results should be wake-up call
February 11, 2012 - 4:34am BY MARILLA STEPHENSON
http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion...d-be-wake-call

Halifax’s population, at 390,000 people, still makes the city by far the largest capital region among the four Atlantic provinces, and it had the greatest growth in terms of number of people who moved here, with 18,000 more people moving to Halifax since 2006.

But the rate of growth in Halifax, at 4.7 per cent, is the second-smallest among all the Atlantic region cities. New Brunswick cities are booming in comparison. Moncton is up 9.7 per cent, Fredericton 9.3 per cent, St. John’s 8.8 per cent and even tiny Charlottetown grew at 8.7 per cent.

Only Saint John, at 4.4 per cent, was in a similar position to Halifax, while the news in Cape Breton is dismal, to say the least.

So, if things are so hot in the cities, why are the cities in other Atlantic provinces managing to expand at a rate that is mostly double the rate experienced in Halifax?

Well maybe it has something to do with undercounts that haven't been adjusted. Maybe people in New Brunswick have a lot more time on their hands to fill out the census. These absolute numbers which stats canada has said need to be adjusted, will not give the true growth rate until they are adjusted. It'a starting to get annoying.

Based on this chart http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t013-eng.htm we should be at about 415,000 on July 1st of this year.

[Halifax Hillbilly]

Where did those numbers from Saint John come from? The growth rate for the city was 3% and the CMA was 4.4%. Hardly booming.

Fredericton and Moncton are both growing quite quickly - both CMAs above 9%.

[Josh M]

Originally Posted by Halifax Hillbilly

Where did those numbers from Saint John come from? The growth rate for the city was 3% and the CMA was 4.4%. Hardly booming.

Fredericton and Moncton are both growing quite quickly - both CMAs above 9%.

St John's not Saint John

[Wishblade]

I'd say in reality Halifax is probably growing around 8%. Atleast thats what prior census predictions would indicate..

It also appears that the CBRM is going to lose CMA status soon.