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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 3:38 PM
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Canada: 1 Billion.

This will never ever happen. Nor should it. It would be virtually unsustainable. However, just for fun, what would your Canada look like with 1 billion people? We are at just over 37 million right now. So, I would look at this and multiply every community by 27 because 37 million people times 27 is almost 1 billion people. The Fredericton CA (where I live) would now be a city of 2.8 million people.

Since we go up a hill I would say fredericton would end up looking like the San Francisco of today with skyscrapers going up the 200 foot hill to the summit. Our Saint John river would have a subway connecting both sides of Fredericton and there would be way more bridges. We would still be a healthy city with average poverty rates because we would not be the mega cities that would now be peppering Canada's vast land.

Moncton and Saint John would have over 3 million people each and so the three cities would end up morphing into one large city. Like a mini eastern US seaboard.

The areas of Canada that are uninhabitable woud still be so and thus our huge cities would become mega cities in theor own right. Cities that would be so large they would be more difficult to control by a central government and be much more like city states (like hong kong, under different circumstances obviously).

There, that is my rant lol
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 3:56 PM
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It wouldn’t grow exactly like that, but by your math calgary region would be over 40 million lol.
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 4:11 PM
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So the size of Tokyo then. Not unreasonable haha
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 5:20 PM
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The Greater Golden Horseshoe would have a population just under Indonesia's population.

Last edited by 333609543; Jul 10, 2018 at 9:31 PM. Reason: deleted obsolete stuff that was included in my next post
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 6:54 PM
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And we would go from a small town to nearly quarter of a million haha! And that's just within city limits which is just half our "metro" population. Massive change.
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 9:13 PM
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PEI would have a population of 4,134,132, which if I am not mistaken would be 732 people per square KM. It would be the 16th most densely populated place on Earth, just behind Palestine.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 9:46 PM
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Canada - 1 000 066 662 (28.45 times the current population)[35 151 728] {The Americas/The New World}*
Ontario - 382 609 654 {United States of America & the Carribean Islands}
Québec - 232 276 070 {Pakistan}
British Columbia - 132 237 165 {Japan}
Alberta - 115 711 129 {Ethiopia}
Manitoba - 36 369 484 {California/Canada}
Saskatchewan - 31 248 114 {Texas/Afghanistan}
Nova Scotia - 26 276 363 {Texas/Madagascar}
New Brunswick - 21 255 023 {Florida/Sri Lanka}
Newfoundland & Labrador - 14 785 920 {Ontario&Manitoba/Zimbabwe}
Prince Edward Island - 4 065 704 {Alberta/Croatia}
Greenland - 1 598 492 {Idaho}
Northwest Territories - 1 188 812 {Manitoba}
Nunavut - 1 022 607 {Montana}
Yukon - 1 020 615 {Montana}
Saint Pierre & Miquelon - 172 976 {Prince Edward Island}
(I know that St. Pierre and Greenland aren't Canada however they're very close and can be used as a point of reference of the magnitude of the growth)
(They are also not included in the Canada round total)
*{sizable comparison} (Could be a Metropolitan Area, Region, State/Province, Country or Continent)
_______________________________________________________________________________

Toronto - 168 652 738 {Taiheiyo Belt x2/Nigeria}
Montréal - 116 614 473 {Maharashtra/Ethiopia}
Vancouver - 70 084 612 {Great Lakes Megalopolis/Taiheiyo Belt/Thailand}
Calgary - 39 619 726 {Tokyo/Poland}
Ottawa-Gatineau - 37 661 626 {Tokyo/Canada}
Edmonton - 37 594 570 {Tokyo/Canada}
Québec City - 22 768 421 {Mumbai/Taiwan}
Winnipeg - 22 148 012 {New York City/Niger}
Hamilton - 21 267 655 {Beijing/Sri Lanka}
Kitchener-Waterloo - 14 904 784 {Buenos Aires/Somalia}
London ON - 14 056 263 {Istanbul/Ontario}
St. Catharines-Niagara - 11 552 805 {Chengdu/Tunisia}
Halifax - 11 476 446 {Chengdu/Tunisia}
Oshawa - 10 806 676 {Paris/Greece}
Victoria - 10 463 057 {London/Czech Republic}
Windsor - 9 364 147 {Chicago/Belarus}
Saskatoon - 8 395 453 {Taipei/Québec}
Regina - 6 727 884 {Toronto/Massachusetts}
Sherbrooke - 6 034 387 {Singapore}
St. John's - 5 859 420 {Singapore}
Barrie - 5 606 329 {Philadelphia/Minnesota}
Kelowna - 5 544 393 {Philadelphia/Minnesota}
Abbotsford - 5 135 737 {Milan/South Carolina}
Greater Sudbury - 4 685 402 {/New Zealand}
Kingston - 4 585 429 {Dalian/British Columbia}
Saguenay - 4 579 881 {Dalian/British Columbia}
Trois Rivières - 4 439 395 {Sydney/Liberia}
Guelph - 4 323 945 {Sydney/Liberia}
Moncton - 4 119 845 {Montréal/Alberta}
Brantford - 3 818 075 {Seattle/Oklahoma}
Saint John - 3 590 447 {Minneapolis/Connecticut}
Peterborough - 3 462 962 {Minneapolis/Connecticut}
Thunder Bay - 3 460 117 {San Diego/Connecticut}
Lethbridge - 3 339 859 {San Diego/Puerto Rico}
Nanaimo - 2 985 429 {Tampa}
Kamloops - 2 953 423 {Tampa}
Belleville/Trenton - 2 943 778 {Tampa}
Chatham-Kent - 2 903 095 {Denver}
Fredericton - 2 895 072 {Denver}
Chilliwack - 2 888 016 {Denver}
Red Deer - 2 856 892 {Denver}
Sydney (Cape Breton) - 2 808 641 {St. Louis}
Sarnia - 2 735 496 {Lower Mainland}
Drummondville - 2 734 557 {Lower Mainland}
Prince George - 2 464 396 {Vancouver}
Granby - 2 419 843 {Vancouver}
Sault Ste. Marie - 2 223 624 {Sendai}
Medicine Hat - 2 177 051 {Sendai}
Kawartha Lakes (Lindsay) - 2 145 784 {Sendai}
Wood Buffalo (Fort McMurray) - 2 085 954 {Perth}
North Bay - 2 002 254 {Perth}
Charlottetown - 1 972 296 {Perth}
Whitehorse - 713 668 {Winnipeg}
Yellowknife - 556 738 {Kitchener-Waterloo}
Iqaluit - 220 203 {Regina}
Alert - 1 764 {}

Last edited by 333609543; Jul 11, 2018 at 6:25 PM. Reason: CMA's being edited in
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 10:00 PM
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Cities of more than 40 or 50 million are likely to be extremely unworkable, and not very desirable - so any gain that they'd be liable to receive would spill over to other, less crowded places.

So rather than having a Toronto of 180,000,000 and Montreal of 110,000,000, this hypothetical Canada of a billion people would probably - like China or India - have several dozen cities in the 5-30 million range.
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Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 10:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
Cities of more than 40 or 50 million are likely to be extremely unworkable, and not very desirable - so any gain that they'd be liable to receive would spill over to other, less crowded places.

So rather than having a Toronto of 180,000,000 and Montreal of 110,000,000, this hypothetical Canada of a billion people would probably - like China or India - have several dozen cities in the 5-30 million range.
I agree, and there are many candidates for "overflow cities" around the country but to keep things simple I'm scaling it strictly.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 10:53 PM
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It's just unfathomable. It's easier to imagine Australia having a billion, even. Canada is a cold place with many frankly inhospitable areas if not for some pretty severe technological intervention. Whereas the US is spread quite evenly throughout its geography by comparison, Canada is just dominated along the US border. I don't see northern cities really becoming massive metropolitan areas, and the southern border has a maximum carrying capacity.

I think the Golden Horseshoe / GTHA can't really grow to be much more than double its current population (about 9 million today, could feasibly fit 20 million but 30 million? 40 million??), much less 27 times. That means much of the growth will have to happen away from the current major population centers, as they are already quite dense. The Lower Mainland (2.8 million) going to 75 million would redraw the map of the entire region west of the rockies. That bridge to Vancouver Island would finally get built, lol. Can you imagine Iqaluit as a city of over 200k people? Or Whitehorse as a metro of almost 700,000?

A more realistic scenario to ponder is Morneau's speculation of 100 million by 2100. I can imagine a 7 million Vancouver, or a 17 million Toronto, or a 4 million Calgary.
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  #11  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2018, 10:58 PM
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Knoxford Guy stated in the first post this is basically a "for fun"/"what if (ignoring common sense)" and speculation. Yakutsk, Russia is a city of 220 000 people and has climate that's just as cold or colder than Iqaluit. Murmansk, Russia is a city of 300 00 people iirc and sits at a high latitude with harsh climate as well. Also, Whitehorse's problem isn't climate (in fact its in the mildest region of the territories), its terrain.
Also having Canada at 1 billion people is unfathomable

Last edited by 333609543; Jul 11, 2018 at 5:25 AM. Reason: added whitehorse stuff
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  #12  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 3:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by svlt View Post
I think the Golden Horseshoe / GTHA can't really grow to be much more than double its current population (about 9 million today, could feasibly fit 20 million but 30 million? 40 million??), much less 27 times. That means much of the growth will have to happen away from the current major population centers, as they are already quite dense. The Lower Mainland (2.8 million) going to 75 million would redraw the map of the entire region west of the rockies. That bridge to Vancouver Island would finally get built, lol. Can you imagine Iqaluit as a city of over 200k people? Or Whitehorse as a metro of almost 700,000?
Not disputing much of what you're saying. To put things in perspective though, Southern Ontario is about the size of England. Southern Ontario has about 13 million people. England has about 53 million people.

Same with the Maritimes -- roughly the size of England / Southern Ontario. The Maritimes have 1.8 million people, England has about 53 million people.
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Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 4:07 PM
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What will be highly entertaining is when we realise that we won't be building to accomodate this billion people. Instead we will cram with what we have. So a 1 bedroom apartment will be housing 20-30 people.

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  #14  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 4:49 PM
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I've never contemplated what a Canada of 1 billion would look like (frankly, I'd never want to), however I have wondered how the country would be had it grown to 100 million by 2000 as the Laurier Liberals hoped for in our pre-WW1 boom era. Had pre-WW1 immigration levels remained the same following the war, it's quite possible that we could've grown to 100 million by 2000, perhaps 25 million by 1930 and to 40 million by the end of WW2.
I imagine Toronto still would've surpassed Montreal to become the largest city, perhaps a city of 15 million. Montreal would be a metropolis of 12 million. Vancouver would still have surpassed Winnipeg to become the largest city in the west, but this change would occur later than it had. Vancouver would be a city of 5 million and Winnipeg a city of 4 million. Ottawa would be in fifth place with about 3 million people, but Calgary would be closely behind (Calgary would grow much faster in the pre-oil boom years as had been predicted).

Provinces, 2018 population
Ontario 35 million
Quebec 25 million
British Columbia 16 million
Alberta 12 million
Manitoba 7 million
Saskatchewan 7 millon
Nova Scotia 3 million
New Brunswick 2 million
Newfoundland 750,000
Prince Edward Is. 250,000
Territories 250,000

Cities
Toronto 15 million (Golden Horseshoe approx. 20 million)
Montreal 12 million
Vancouver 5 million
Winnipeg 4 million
Ottawa 3 million
Calgary 2.5 million
Hamilton 2 million
Quebec City 1.5 million
Regina 1.5 million
Edmonton 1.5 million
Halifax 1.5 million
London 1 million
Windsor 750,000
Saskatoon 750,000
Victoria 600,000
Saint John 500,000
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  #15  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 6:18 PM
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St-Pierre et Miquelon with 175K would probably evoke more love in me than St. John's. It already feels to me, with just 6K, as satisfyingly urban as towns and cities many times larger. It's sleepy and provincial sure - but dodging vespas early in the morning on a crowded walk to the bakery after drinking and dancing until 5 a.m. takes a lot of the sting out of not feeling personally connected to and enriched by whatever is going on artistically.

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Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 6:54 PM
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An interesting thing to speculate is which cities would grow after the main 6 (Toronto-Edmonton) are basically filled out. My top picks are:
Thunder Bay, Sarnia, Kingston, Belleville, Lethbridge, Truro, Rimouski, and Medicine Hat. There might be entirely new cities in this scenario.
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Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 9:00 PM
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An interesting thing to speculate is which cities would grow after the main 6 (Toronto-Edmonton) are basically filled out. My top picks are:
Thunder Bay, Sarnia, Kingston, Belleville, Lethbridge, Truro, Rimouski, and Medicine Hat. There might be entirely new cities in this scenario.
I've always thought it would be cool if Thunder Bay was 2 or 3 times larger than its current size, making it more comparable with the Duluth MSA.
Kingston seems like a city that should be much larger and more important than it is.
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Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 10:59 PM
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An interesting thought experiment. Not that it would ever happen, but it is fun to imagine how things might be if we were twice, 10, 20 times our size. I mainly know NB so that's what I'll muse about, lightly touching on NS and PEI along the way.

For the Maritimes, the Fundy will basically fill in and become a megalopolis likely. Freddy would be an outlier (going up to Woodstock and growing up the Nashwaak river along route 8 basically), but the centre of the province will still be fairly empty. A corridor would fill in between Freddy and Saint John, not quite following the river due to CFB Gagetown (but there would likely be pressure to move the base somewhere else from Oromocto and SJ boundaries squeezing on it). Freddy would mainly grow south (to Freddy Junction) and west (along the valley, absorbing Nackawic). South east it would follow the river somewhat but the flood plain would keep it less developed. Northward it would grow north west through Keswick and Mactaquac, and north in general, with major development spurs along Route 8 and Route 10.

Sussex would be a major city in its own right, and probably be NB's "hub" city being central to the bigger metropoli of Freddy/SJ and Moncton. Route 1 would likely be a major 3-4 lane route between Moncton and SJ.

Route 2 would probably be a 3 lane highway, but would finally be rerouted to go to Sussex instead of the Irving hinterland. Gagetown, Coles Island, Cambridge Narrows would be decent sized towns in their own rights. Salisbury, Shediac and Sackville would be all absorbed in the greater Moncton municipality/city.

Amherst would be a smaller city, feeding off of the proximity to Moncton while being in a different province. Truro would be a major Nova Scotian hub city. Wolfville and Digby will likely be decent sized cities, serving the University and the Fundy coast. There would be regular (multiple trips daily) highspeed ferry trips between SJ and Digby.

Probably 6 lane highways between SJ to Moncton to Halifax. 4 lane highways all the way to Sydney, including expansion of the canso causeway. Antigonish, New Glasgow, Port Hawksbury would all be decent sized cities (probably on par with current Maritime city sizes) if not bigger. Sydney would finally be pulling its weight. There'd likely be twice the number of ferries (high speed ferries maybe?) across to Newfoundland as well.

The Confederation Bridge would be expanded, with rail lines and at least 3 lanes each way. There might even be talk of a second crossing around Pictou. I'm afraid I can't even guess how the rest of the island might change.

There would certainly be regular passenger rail service between SJ and Halifax, probably a regional GO-style rail system between NB's tri-cities, with passenger rail service to Charlottetown and Sydney and the northern cities. Probably not high speed rail service yet between SJ to Halifax, but it would be heavily studied and perpetually "Coming soon".

Moncton and Halifax would be fairly major international hubs to serve the millions in the Maritimes; Halifax still bigger, but Moncton drawing more and more through the years, as Halifax has growing pains, and Moncton's maritime Hub location being more appealing. Freddy, SJ, Sydney and Charlottetown airports will be major national airports, with a few choice international destinations, but mainly handling flights around the region and to Canadian hubs and a few US destinations and sun destinations.

The SJ valley and central NB would likely still be a lot of towns. Bigger towns; Woodstock and Grand Falls would be cities akin to Freddy or Edmundston currently, but still towns. Edmundston would probably be close to current Moncton in size (not really thinking hard on the numbers to be honest) and serving as the entrance to the Maritimes. Bathurst and Miramichi will finally be decent sized cities, still small compared to the others, but the shrinkage would mostly be stopped and they would probably see a decent tourist destination, especially with French tourists.

There would be a four lane highway looping all around the north part of the province, connecting the cities together, along with regular passenger rail service. Route 8 (Freddy to Miramichi to Bathurst) would also be fully twinned. Route 108 (Miramichi to Plaster Rock/Grand Falls) would be upgraded to highway but probably not twinned yet; Route 2 (TCH) and Route 15 (East coast) would be the major North-south routes in the province.

The east coast of NB would be much more heavily urbanized and french, Bouctouche being a small city on the verge of being absorbed into Moncton, and Richibucto being a major stopping point between Miramichi and Moncton.

St Stephen, Woodstock, Perth Andover, Grand Falls, St Leonard and Edmundston would all be major US/Can border crossings. A couple of highways and rail lines would finally be pushed through across Aroostock county, linking St Stephen and/or Woodstock more directly to Quebec.
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  #19  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2018, 11:21 PM
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Well Saskatchewan at 27-30 million would be interesting.

Saskatoon around 8.5 million would be mind blowing.
Regina around 7 million as well.

But the smaller cities are even more. PA at 1.2 million. MJ at 1 million. Cities like Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford around 500k. It would get to the point where cities would grow together into one continuous blob.
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Old Posted Jul 12, 2018, 1:21 AM
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This is not based on anything other than a wild guess, but I expect the Greater Toronto Area (aka: the GTHA) to max out at about 12-14 million. I expect the City, based on its present-day borders to max out at about 4 milliion.

In the case of the latter, that would be a growth of about 1.2 million people, which, based on current occupancy levels, is almost the same as adding about 700,000 dwelling units. Given that Toronto adds 12,500 units a year (give or take), I think that's incredibly ambitious.

All cities hit the population glass ceiling eventually. In the 1960s, experts thought that Los Angeles would overtake NYC to become the biggest metro in the US by 1975, and have 19 million people by 1990. Neither of these prophecies has come true. But, at the time, Los Angeles had experienced astounding levels of growth for over 50 years and there was no sign that that would stop. Of course it did stop and, in hindsight, it's not hard to see why: there are limits to an outwardly-expanding automobile city until the edges are so far away that they really cease to be part of the metropolis in a meaningful way. When you have a 200 km long sprawl where citizens on one end wouldn't dream of visiting the other side without staying in a hotel, there's only so much appeal in growing further out, and it starts to get hard to qualify all of those people as "belonging" to one city region.

In Toronto's case, I think that the region is limited by very path-dependent thinking on infrastructure and growth along set corridors as well as the inability to upzone. When it comes to infrastructure and where to put growth, the thinking is that the city can jam ever more people onto a handful of overstressed transportation corridors - most notably the 401 for goods/car traffic in an east-west direction and Yonge street for transit/high density growth in a north-south direction. While the region has other corridors, added maybe too little, too late, private growth and movement remains stubbornly committed to those two. This is different from, say, London, Paris, New York, Tokyo or Shanghai, where there was never a set road that growth and vibrancy was supposed to happen on, so a spaghetti web of roads and rail lines allowed for a blob of dense growth to spread out like a carpet rather than a thread.
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