Economic and political issues in NS

[q12]

The title of this thread says it all.

[PoscStudent]

According to this new report by RBC Nova Scotia should finally start seeing some strong GDP growth numbers by 2013.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

[q12]

Unemployment rates September 2012. (Previous month in brackets.)

— Halifax 5.7 (6.5)

— St. John's, N.L. 7.1 (7.1)

— Moncton 7.2 (7.0)

— Saint John 9.1 (9.0)


— Nova Scotia 8.6 (9.7)

— New Brunswick 11.0 (10.4)

— Prince Edward Island 11.2 (11.7)

— Newfoundland and Labrador 12.3 (12.7)

source
source

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by q12

Unemployment rates September 2012. (Previous month in brackets.)

— Halifax 5.7 (6.5)

Jesus Christ!...

Let's see if this is a sustainable trend in the long-term, considering the shipbuilding contract hasn't yet graced the city with its benefits.

Originally Posted by q12

— St. John's, N.L. 7.1 (7.1)

Disappointing. I'm rooting for progress in this city.

Originally Posted by q12

— Moncton 7.2 (7.0)

— Saint John 9.1 (9.0)

Not surprising.

[Nilan8888]

When that contract does hit, I'd expect the population of St John to start dropping off first... if people flock to where the jobs are, Halifax would sound a damn sight better for a lot of people than hiking it all the way to Ontario or Alberta.

[PoscStudent]

While St. John's unemployment rate is higher than HRM our participation rate is several percentage points higher which makes a difference. As well like Halifax there are billions of more dollars soon to be spent in the area.

[someone123]

It is kind of silly to debate 1-2% differences since these rates fluctuate significantly even from month to month, and since there is some statistical noise due to the small sample sizes in smaller cities. In 2011, the participation rate in St. John's was lower than the rate in Halifax. By contrast there's about a 10% difference between Windsor and Calgary.

I doubt that hiring for shipbuilding in Halifax would have a big demographic impact on St. John's specifically. There will be on the order of 11,500 direct jobs created and St. John's is a small part of the labour pool that would be hired from.

[PoscStudent]

I agree. It's not that long ago St. John's had the third lowest unemployment rate in the country at around 5.5%, it's gone up a bit but other factors related to unemployment have been positive. As I said above there are several multi billion projects starting here in the next couple of years, not necessarily in St. John's but that's eventually where the money flows. The government is estimating we'll need 70,000 people to fill labour shortages here in the next few years.

I won't continue ranting with other stuff but the idea that our population will be negatively impacted due to Halifax winning the contract is just ridiculous. Companies here were delighted with the news when it was announced and said they'd like have to expand because they provide services to the Halifax shipyard. I've also had people working with the NS government say that this province will benefit alot from the contract.

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

I won't continue ranting with other stuff but the idea that our population will be negatively impacted due to Halifax winning the contract is just ridiculous. Companies here were delighted with the news when it was announced and said they'd like have to expand because they provide services to the Halifax shipyard. I've also had people working with the NS government say that this province will benefit alot from the contract.

I think he meant Saint John, NB.

[someone123]

Saint John NB makes a little more sense I guess but it is still hard to say what sort of impact shipbuilding will have there.

In the future I hope the Maritimes will move away from the idea that economic success is a "zero sum" game and that whatever is good for one area is bad for another. The shipbuilding contract is an example where that's clearly not true, because no other shipyard in the region was in the running.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by someone123

Saint John NB makes a little more sense I guess but it is still hard to say what sort of impact shipbuilding will have there.

In the future I hope the Maritimes will move away from the idea that economic success is a "zero sum" game and that whatever is good for one area is bad for another. The shipbuilding contract is an example where that's clearly not true, because no other shipyard in the region was in the running.

Actually Marystown had been in the running up until a few weeks or months before the contracts were announced, though I don't know if they could have handled the largest contract that Halifax got.

That's moot though.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

Saint John NB makes a little more sense I guess but it is still hard to say what sort of impact shipbuilding will have there.

In the future I hope the Maritimes will move away from the idea that economic success is a "zero sum" game and that whatever is good for one area is bad for another. The shipbuilding contract is an example where that's clearly not true, because no other shipyard in the region was in the running.

This stings. A lot.

[Nilan8888]

I think he meant Saint John, NB.

Yes, thank you. I wasn't even thinking Newfoundland,. The entire reason was because you can drive from NB to Halifax in a day meaning you can go 'back home' way easier, and... well, now I forget what the rationale was for listing St. John before Moncton or Fredericton. It's a couple days short of a month ago now.

I think it was those unemployment rates. And that's just simple logic: if there's high unemployment, people are going to seek jobs where there IS employment. If Halifax has the jobs and it's that short a distance away, moving there will be a no-brainer.

That's not to say spin-off jobs will not also be created in St John to help with its own unemployment problem. But the majority of jobs will still be in Halifax. The main point though, is that the economy would be changing such that people can still get back where there extended or even immediate families are within a 5 hour drive (4 if you speed, I did it all the time!). That's opposed to a 2 day drive from Toronto, or who knows how long from Alberta.

That said, if you're talking Newfoundland, well... at best it's a shorter flight. But that's really not where I was going with that.

[q12]

Unemployment rate October 2012 (Previous month in brackets.)

— Halifax 5.4 (5.7)

[RyeJay]

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

Jesus Christ!...

Let's see if this is a sustainable trend in the long-term, considering the shipbuilding contract hasn't yet graced the city with its benefits.



Disappointing. I'm rooting for progress in this city.




Not surprising.

You really have to look at overall numbers, This flucuates so much in short periods of time .. as mentioned before St. John's had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and as of right now this year because of fluctuating oil prices the NL economy is suppose to actually slightly contract .. where as next year it is suppose to grow more than double that of any maritime province ... hopefully now when the mega projects get into production it will stabalize this a bit more


Provincial economy to contract 0.4%, says report

..“The overall economy in Newfoundland is growing,” he said. “You look at retail sales, you look at employment, you look at a lot of other indicators, the economy is doing well.

“But oil is a big part of the Newfoundland economy, and we’ve got a very sharp contraction in oil production, down about 24 per cent in the year to August.”

The council’s report also predicts 2013 will see Newfoundland and Labrador have the strongest rebound thanks to recovering oil production and continued mining investment

The report forecasts growth of 3.4 per cent for the province next year, at least twice the rate of economic growth predicted for any of the Maritime provinces.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/...-says-report/1

He was presenting the results of the annual Atlantic Provinces Economic Council (APEC) major projects inventory, an accounting of projects “valued at $25 million or more, $10 million or more in P.E.I.” in various stages of development.

“I kind of feel like Dr. Evil in the Austin Powers movie,” he said with a laugh, announcing the grand total with flare. “One hundred billion dollars.”

Newfoundland and Labrador is leading the count in Atlantic Canada. Almost half of all major project spending is set to happen here — $48.1 billion. It is an 11 per cent bump over the same outlook last year.
...

Outside of oil and mining projects, housing developments in the city are listed as a third “growth driver” for the provincial economy.


The Glencrest Subdivision, backed by former Premier Danny Williams, has been counted in part (a $400-million first phase, running to 2017)

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Loca...driving-boom/1

^The full glencrest development will be worth $5 billion

This is about the near future job demand:

“With numerous large-scale labour projects, major developments on the horizon, and an expected 70,000 job openings by 2020, this is an unprecedented time of opportunity throughout our province,” said Minster Burke.

http://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releas...es/1016n01.htm


So keep rooting for us hehe it's not bad at all

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by jeddy1989

You really have to look at overall numbers, This flucuates so much in short periods of time .. as mentioned before St. John's had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and as of right now this year because of fluctuating oil prices the NL economy is suppose to actually slightly contract .. where as next year it is suppose to grow more than double that of any maritime province ... hopefully now when the mega projects get into production it will stabalize this a bit more

I do look at overall numbers, but the monthly outlooks give us an indication as to how realistic the economic projections and forecasts are (which are also frequently revised).

And P.S.: don't combine numerous comments of mine into one, unless you don't care about clarity. I had to scroll back to know what you were talking about...

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

I do look at overall numbers, but the monthly outlooks give us an indication as to how realistic the economic projections and forecasts are (which are also frequently revised).

And P.S.: don't combine numerous comments of mine into one, unless you don't care about clarity. I had to scroll back to know what you were talking about...

Don't take me wrong I was not critsizing you or the post, nor monthly outlooks. I was just trying to give you a bit more information about St. John's. I had no intentions of even questioning what you were saying. I was just saying that things are going good, and I'm happy for all the cities we've talked about.
I'm sorry if you took it as critisism

Also the first quote was yours and I did not edit it at all or take anything away, I think it was because you were quoting someone else, SSP took out your quotes when I quoted your resonse. I apologize

didn't you notice the:

So keep rooting for us hehe it's not bad at all

[Halifax Hillbilly]

The latest monthly rate for Halifax is 5.4%, down from 5.7%. Things seem to really be rolling in Halifax. The rest of Nova Scotia is really hurting though: unemployment jumped to 9.2%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/unemployment-stats/

[someone123]

Statistics Canada has a labour force characteristics table for economic regions, although it does not get updated every month: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...bor36a-eng.htm

One interesting thing to consider is how much variation there is between different rural regions. The Annapolis Valley has much lower unemployment than Cape Breton, and Edmundston-Woodstock is much lower than Campbellton-Miramichi. Halifax is the only "urban" economic region listed; others like Moncton-Richibucto are a mix of urban municipalities and nearby counties, which explains why they're in the middle of the pack.