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  #41  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 2:54 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Originally Posted by soleri View Post
I'm not sure I follow you. What we call affordable takes into account what local economies are capable of sustaining. Portland is definitely not in the same league as Seattle, LA, or San Diego. Yes, there is this vaunted low-vacancy rate but there's a whole lot of product coming online and a great deal more in the pipeline. That vacancy rate is going to change. Multi-family builders don't focus on affordability so much as demand itself. If they overshoot, as is sometimes the case, the result is a more affordable marketplace. Stay tuned.

Upthread, there was a discussion about rental costs in NW Portland. I know first-hand they are stabilizing. Big rental buildings like the Vista St Clair and 735 St Clair used to have waiting lists. Now they're offering incentives to residents who can find a friend or family member who will rent there. That's what happens when 25% of your units are vacant. There is no crisis in Portland when it comes to supply. The crisis, if there is one, lies in the economy itself. Portland is a very attractive place to live but it's not generating enough high-paying jobs to justify the high rents in new housing product. One project to monitor will be Hassalo on 8th. Builders will be looking closely at how well it does. The market cannot lie because real-estate bullshit is always factored in as a business expense.

More OT but dovetailing if you will: should Portland scrap its basic planning model in order to accommodate the hysterics who scream about affordability? I read Oregon Live and I know they're out there. I see the upvotes their anti-Portland screeds get. Time to man up! Portland's greatest success has been in preserving its quality-of-life ideal. Indeed, that's a major component of its economy (how many comparable cities have Portland's large number of boutique hotels?). Maybe Portland doesn't have Boeing, Amazon, or Microsoft but it does have something Seattle is gradually compromising: livability. While I don't want to see young creatives work as baristas into middle age, I really don't want to see Portland lose its soul.
I should have made my point clearer and that is we need to find ways to boost our economy. We need to focus on creating more middle class jobs as much as building affordable housing. Once the economy is stronger the housing problem will kind of take care of its self to a degree but wont be a cure all. Almost all major cities have this problem.The only way to stop it is a loss of people

As far as Seattle being in a different class than Portland it is right now? as someone who spent time there back in the late 80s Portland now reminds me of Seattle then. Thirty years is not that long in city development time.

Investors and developers will build as you said only when they have faith in a strong market. Most are a bit insecure about Portland's long term economy.
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  #42  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 3:19 PM
soleri soleri is offline
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
I should have made my point clearer and that is we need to find ways to boost our economy. We need to focus on creating more middle class jobs as much as building affordable housing. Once the economy is stronger the housing problem will kind of take care of its self to a degree but wont be a cure all. Almost all major cities have this problem.The only way to stop it is a loss of people

As far as Seattle being in a different class than Portland it is right now? as someone who spent time there back in the late 80s Portland now reminds me of Seattle then. Thirty years is not that long in city development time.

Investors and developers will build as you said only when they have faith in a strong market. Most are a bit insecure about Portland's long term economy.

There are a lot of reasons why Portland doesn't have the overheated economy a of Seattle or San Francisco. Every Chamber of Commerce wrings it hands about this "problem". If only we offered better "incentives"! If only corporate taxes were lower! If only the UGB were relaxed!

I'm not opposed to good economic development policy but I am opposed to the real-estate industrial complex deciding what it should be. Once those grubby developers get their mitts on the process, it's game over. Portland has this one chance to get right what most American cities have thrown overboard: a high-quality urban environment. It's take discipline, good planning, excellent transit, and a trust in government to get right. It's impossible to get everything perfect but if we get enough of the details right, that economy will take care of itself.
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  #43  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 3:57 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Originally Posted by soleri View Post
There are a lot of reasons why Portland doesn't have the overheated economy a of Seattle or San Francisco. Every Chamber of Commerce wrings it hands about this "problem". If only we offered better "incentives"! If only corporate taxes were lower! If only the UGB were relaxed!

I'm not opposed to good economic development policy but I am opposed to the real-estate industrial complex deciding what it should be. Once those grubby developers get their mitts on the process, it's game over. Portland has this one chance to get right what most American cities have thrown overboard: a high-quality urban environment. It's take discipline, good planning, excellent transit, and a trust in government to get right. It's impossible to get everything perfect but if we get enough of the details right, that economy will take care of itself.
As livable as Portland is it still takes a chunk disposable income to enjoy what it has to offer. I would guess that 30% or more of the population cant afford to take in what the city offers.
Its always going to be tough to balance livability and the economy.
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  #44  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 4:22 PM
soleri soleri is offline
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
As livable as Portland is it still takes a chunk disposable income to enjoy what it has to offer. I would guess that 30% or more of the population cant afford to take in what the city offers.
Its always going to be tough to balance livability and the economy.
Well, call that the paradox of success. Portland has done what few other cities have even attempted: to use urban policy and quality-of-life values to advance itself. The end result is a city that has attracted a large creative class (be they hipsters, artisans, or yuppies), retired professionals, and the "liberal bourgeoisie" who all give Portland its quirky flavor. So who loses? The working class who gradually get pushed out of the center city into the east side or the 'burbs.

I'm all in favor of affordable housing set asides, and other policy initiatives, to keep Portland available for the less advantaged. But I bristle when I hear that we should simply abandon the process that brought us to this point. Most Portlanders, I think, feel the same way. Granted, there are those who regard their right to drive and park everywhere as the ultimate good. That's why planning and the politics of urbanism can be tricky. I shiver when I think of adding another 750,000 people over the next 20 years, transplants who will likely come here with their cars and their sense of entitlement when it comes to driving. I think there will be an epic battle preserving the liberal coalition that has midwifed Portland's success. If that coalition breaks up, Portland's victory will be Pyrrhic.
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  #45  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 6:48 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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^
Portland is probably more or as livable to the working class low income as any other major city on the west coast and I dont think our problems are worse than any other major city in that regard.
What worries me is economic opportunity for ALL incomes and I think it has hurt our reputation nationally. QOL measurements certainly have to include income growth potential, business climate, education and taxation and as of late we haven't made any "lists" at least positively in any of those categories.We are still the King as far as green is concerned but our overall livability has actually decreased in recent years.And I for one dont think cramming 10,000 ppsm is the answer either.
We can make a city of all kinds of jobs even industrial. Single family homes still should be attainable for families in the city and as far as Im concerned we need to do a better job of building high density in downtown. River Place is a joke, looks like a Beaverton apartment complex. Downtown should have 40,000 units by now which would be enough development to create affordable housing for downtown support workers.
If were going to be a city we need to act like one
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  #46  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 6:52 PM
maccoinnich maccoinnich is offline
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
our overall livability has actually decreased in recent years.
How so?
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  #47  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 7:23 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Originally Posted by maccoinnich View Post
How so?
income growth as a percentage of cost of living
increased traffic
lack of opportunity for those even with an education
unemployment still at greater than 5%
diversity of jobs
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  #48  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 7:57 PM
maccoinnich maccoinnich is offline
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Our unemployment rate has been consistently falling, and is now the lowest it's been since 2007. Sure, it could be falling faster, but nonetheless the trend represents an improvement not a deterioration.

I tried to find a source that shows that traffic is getting worse, and couldn't. (The closest I could find were Oregonian / KATU / Tribune articles where the journalist said that traffic is getting worse, but provided no evidence.)

I can't find any evidence that Portland has a less diverse job base than it did a few years ago. Our economy is consistently improving, and job growth and income in Portland has overtaken Washington County for the first time in a decade.

Rents increased dramatically in the early years of this decade due to a huge shortage of housing created by the recession. Now that the construction industry is building at the high rates needed we're seeing rents stabilize or decline slightly.
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  #49  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 8:06 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Originally Posted by maccoinnich View Post
Our unemployment rate has been consistently falling, and is now the lowest it's been since 2007. Sure, it could be falling faster, but nonetheless the trend represents an improvement not a deterioration.

I tried to find a source that shows that traffic is getting worse, and couldn't. (The closest I could find were Oregonian / KATU / Tribune articles where the journalist said that traffic is getting worse, but provided no evidence.)

I can't find any evidence that Portland has a less diverse job base than it did a few years ago. Our economy is consistently improving, and job growth and income in Portland has overtaken Washington County for the first time in a decade.

Rents increased dramatically in the early years of this decade due to a huge shortage of housing created by the recession. Now that the construction industry is building at the high rates needed we're seeing rents stabilize or decline slightly.
I can assure you traffic is worse as I have to drive through it for my job-I do walk to work though.
I should have made it clear and thats my fault that I was comparing Portland now to back in the 80s and 90s.
as far as jobs go its the diversity of growth. The only area that has had very good growth is the hi tech industry.
Im not saying everything in Portland is doom and gloom by any means just that we still have a ways to go before we can support any real strong growth.
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  #50  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 8:09 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
Actually I think its less complicated to build in "other" places than Portland. After looking at vacancy rates Portland seems like not such a bad risk, however
the economy is more up and down here(historically) than other places. As far as building costs go it seems relevant to today's higher wages.Its never been real easy for the poor to to find homes or even first time buyers on lower middle incomes.
Taking all of that at face value, I can imagine why developers aren't going nuts with building. Why would they?

Edit: And if rents are stabllizing per someone's post above, that's more reason.
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  #51  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 9:00 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Taking all of that at face value, I can imagine why developers aren't going nuts with building. Why would they?

Edit: And if rents are stabllizing per someone's post above, that's more reason.
So whats going on in Seattle as far as affordable housing? or is it even needed?
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  #52  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 9:34 PM
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes
I can assure you traffic is worse as I have to drive through it for my job-I do walk to work though.
I should have made it clear and thats my fault that I was comparing Portland now to back in the 80s and 90s.
as far as jobs go its the diversity of growth. The only area that has had very good growth is the hi tech industry.
Im not saying everything in Portland is doom and gloom by any means just that we still have a ways to go before we can support any real strong growth.
The other week I was walking across Hawthorne on a nice sunny afternoon and had never seen more bicycles in my life on the bridge. At least that was my perception. The reality is Portland has much higher bike counts later in the summer. Comparing traffic back to 2000, damned near 1999, let's take a look...

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Originally Posted by colganc View Post
Portland MSA population in...
  • 2000 - 1,927,881
  • 2010 - 2,226,009 - 15% increase in pop since 2000
  • 2014 - 2,348,247 - 22% increase in pop since 2000

TriMet Boardings in...
  • 2000 - 81,237,600
  • 2010 - 99,337,044 - 22% increase in boardings since 2000
  • 2014 - 98,775,270 - 22% increase in boardings since 2000

Vehicles miles...
  • 2000 - 35,229,996
  • 2014 - 35,872,176 - Up 2% over 2000
That's really not a lot more car traffic, it just isn't. The second part of your post...

Quote:
Originally Posted by 58rhodes
as far as jobs go its the diversity of growth. The only area that has had very good growth is the hi tech industry.
Im not saying everything in Portland is doom and gloom by any means just that we still have a ways to go before we can support any real strong growth.
Again, that's just not correct. The sportswear industry inside Portland and Washington County has never been stronger. Freightliner is investing and growing it's Portland footprint. OHSU is becoming a world class institution. Hi tech in Washington County is booming, Intel is just completing it's most expensive, advanced operations building ever. Portland's new tech developers have single handedly added thousands of jobs, crimped any excess office space in the CBD and pay upper middle class wages. These are just a few examples of some of the strongest economic growth Portland has ever seen.

And circling back a few posts...

Quote:
Originally Posted by 58rhodes
The sad thing is that I see so much Portland investment money going to Seattle,Bellvue, San Diego and even LA. Its like our local investors have little faith in Portland. Most of you dont realize that one of the nations largest multi family builders is headquartered in Portland. Maybe Portland's own need to step up?
It's a good thing our developers and architects complete projects throughout the country and the world. For dozens of reasons. And it goes both ways, AAT is a San Diego based company currently building the largest Portland housing development. Had it not been for Key Development of California, Skylab's burnside tower would probably have been half height, if at all. The Pearl's 26 story new apartment building, by Unico, is a Seattle developer. Again, just a few of the many examples of outside money building Portland's skyline.

We can always improve, but Portland is booming in any sense of the word right now. As mentioned by maccoinnich, we're finally getting enough completed new housing development that the prices are stabilizing which should help the affordable housing issue in the long run. Including efforts by the city and state to build more affordable housing.
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  #53  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 10:12 PM
maccoinnich maccoinnich is offline
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It's a good thing our developers and architects complete projects throughout the country and the world. For dozens of reasons. And it goes both ways, AAT is a San Diego based company currently building the largest Portland housing development. Had it not been for Key Development of California, Skylab's burnside tower would probably have been half height, if at all. The Pearl's 26 story new apartment building, by Unico, is a Seattle developer. Again, just a few of the many examples of outside money building Portland's skyline.
Small correction: Key Development are based out of Hood River. (Yes, I know that doesn't sound right.) But I totally agree with your general point. There are out of state developers like Unico and AAT doing great work here. And our local developers are doing great work outside of Oregon. Gerding Edlen just won the rights to develop a large new mixed use project over the Capital Hill light rail station in Seattle.
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  #54  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 10:47 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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The other week I was walking across Hawthorne on a nice sunny afternoon and had never seen more bicycles in my life on the bridge. At least that was my perception. The reality is Portland has much higher bike counts later in the summer. Comparing traffic back to 2000, damned near 1999, let's take a look...



That's really not a lot more car traffic, it just isn't. The second part of your post...



Again, that's just not correct. The sportswear industry inside Portland and Washington County has never been stronger. Freightliner is investing and growing it's Portland footprint. OHSU is becoming a world class institution. Hi tech in Washington County is booming, Intel is just completing it's most expensive, advanced operations building ever. Portland's new tech developers have single handedly added thousands of jobs, crimped any excess office space in the CBD and pay upper middle class wages. These are just a few examples of some of the strongest economic growth Portland has ever seen.

And circling back a few posts...



It's a good thing our developers and architects complete projects throughout the country and the world. For dozens of reasons. And it goes both ways, AAT is a San Diego based company currently building the largest Portland housing development. Had it not been for Key Development of California, Skylab's burnside tower would probably have been half height, if at all. The Pearl's 26 story new apartment building, by Unico, is a Seattle developer. Again, just a few of the many examples of outside money building Portland's skyline.

We can always improve, but Portland is booming in any sense of the word right now. As mentioned by maccoinnich, we're finally getting enough completed new housing development that the prices are stabilizing which should help the affordable housing issue in the long run. Including efforts by the city and state to build more affordable housing.
these are all great opportunities for incoming workers, these are not the people or jobs Im talking about. Im also aware that our developers build elsewhere. But ask anybody across the country about the job market reputation in Portland . I doubt if 2% of the total job market works in the apparel business.

Last edited by 58rhodes; May 25, 2015 at 10:52 PM. Reason: adding comment
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  #55  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 11:23 PM
maccoinnich maccoinnich is offline
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58rhodes - your comments are really frustratingly vague. I'm not even quite sure what point you're trying to make. That Portland is in some kind of spiral of decline?
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  #56  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
these are all great opportunities for incoming workers, these are not the people or jobs Im talking about. Im also aware that our developers build elsewhere. But ask anybody across the country about the job market reputation in Portland . I doubt if 2% of the total job market works in the apparel business.
http://pdxeconomicdevelopment.com/do...r-analysis.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or_portland_msa.htm

In 2008 according to information from the State of Oregon the apparel group accounted for 14,000+ jobs. From the BLS site Portland MSA has about 1.2 million in the workforce. Since 2008 most of the apparel companies in town have hired quite a bit. Likely to be close to 2% of the total and thats for direct employees. They each have varying levels of contractors that could increase that number and then add in the direct support organizations. Likely over 2%.
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  #57  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 11:33 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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Originally Posted by colganc View Post
http://pdxeconomicdevelopment.com/do...r-analysis.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or_portland_msa.htm

In 2008 according to information from the State of Oregon the apparel group accounted for 14,000+ jobs. From the BLS site Portland MSA has about 1.2 million in the workforce. Since 2008 most of the apparel companies in town have hired quite a bit. Likely to be close to 2% of the total and thats for direct employees. They each have varying levels of contractors that could increase that number and then add in the direct support organizations. Likely over 2%.
I wonder how many jobs they added in east Portland?
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  #58  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 11:34 PM
colganc colganc is offline
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Originally Posted by MarkDaMan View Post
The other week I was walking across Hawthorne on a nice sunny afternoon and had never seen more bicycles in my life on the bridge. At least that was my perception. The reality is Portland has much higher bike counts later in the summer. Comparing traffic back to 2000, damned near 1999, let's take a look...



That's really not a lot more car traffic, it just isn't. The second part of your post...



Again, that's just not correct. The sportswear industry inside Portland and Washington County has never been stronger. Freightliner is investing and growing it's Portland footprint. OHSU is becoming a world class institution. Hi tech in Washington County is booming, Intel is just completing it's most expensive, advanced operations building ever. Portland's new tech developers have single handedly added thousands of jobs, crimped any excess office space in the CBD and pay upper middle class wages. These are just a few examples of some of the strongest economic growth Portland has ever seen.

And circling back a few posts...



It's a good thing our developers and architects complete projects throughout the country and the world. For dozens of reasons. And it goes both ways, AAT is a San Diego based company currently building the largest Portland housing development. Had it not been for Key Development of California, Skylab's burnside tower would probably have been half height, if at all. The Pearl's 26 story new apartment building, by Unico, is a Seattle developer. Again, just a few of the many examples of outside money building Portland's skyline.

We can always improve, but Portland is booming in any sense of the word right now. As mentioned by maccoinnich, we're finally getting enough completed new housing development that the prices are stabilizing which should help the affordable housing issue in the long run. Including efforts by the city and state to build more affordable housing.
There might not be "THAT" much more traffic, but it may be enough in some areas to cause real messes. Many people commuting out to the west side that I talk to have seen 20%+ increases in commute times. From Vancouver you could see what was 45 minutes (30 minutes no traffic) commute turn into 75 minute commutes. It won't be long before similar times will hit many people on the eastside.
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  #59  
Old Posted May 25, 2015, 11:36 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is offline
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There might not be "THAT" much more traffic, but it may be enough in some areas to cause real messes. Many people commuting out to the west side that I talk to have seen 20%+ increases in commute times. From Vancouver you could see what was 45 minutes (30 minutes no traffic) commute turn into 75 minute commutes. It won't be long before similar times will hit many people on the eastside.
exactly my point --thanks
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  #60  
Old Posted May 26, 2015, 12:13 AM
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So whats going on in Seattle as far as affordable housing? or is it even needed?
Yes, affordability is worse here. Some successes and some misses:

1. City of Seattle voters continue to keep the a low-income and affordable housing levy going, providing $16,000,000 per year that mostly goes to nonprofits who build and own housing.

2. The Seattle Housing Authority and its nonprofit and for-profit partners are in the home stretch on rebuilding their old single-income zones into denser mixed-income zones. Generally they go from maybe six per acre to 11 or so. When you take light rail from the airport you pass two of these, Rainier Vista and New Holly, both very successful. The last one is Yesler Terrace next to Downtown, which will replace 590(?) garden-type units with maybe 3,000 plus some commercial use, with the first few hundred units underway or just completing.

3. We've cut way back on parking requirements. The zero-requirement zone started with Downtown but now includes more areas like much of Capitol Hill and the University District. I forget where else. This is allowing a ton of smaller units with 0.0 or 0.1 ratios that would have never penciled with even a 0.5 ratio, particularly on small sites where parking is geometrically inefficient. Developers instead try to approximate the actual demand, much like in Portland, so the average larger building might have a 0.5 or 0.6 if it's in the right neighborhood. Only condos and townhouses really do a space per unit with a few exceptions.

4. We have a large wave of micro units. The tragedy is that much of the zoning opportunities have been shut. We were getting numerous buildings with dorm-type rooms of maybe 150 square feet, which could rent for maybe $550, which filled instantly, but those are mostly done. We're still getting a lot of 300 square foot units that rent for $1,000. There used to be ways to keep costs down by bypassing design review, building extremely low parking ratios in neighborhoods that require more for typical units, etc., but those are cut off too. Basically "loopholes" were closed but those were key to really low rents. The City Council decided that nimbys and closet racists (if we're being serious here) were more important than the lower-income residents they claim to care about.

5. We're failing to keep a supply of buildable lots going. Only 15% (or 11?) of Seattle allows multifamily, and most of that is 45' or 65'. There are still tons of sites if you're walking through a neighborhood, but often those aren't for sale, so the ones that are on the market have gotten way more expensive. We aren't going to get away from single-family dominating our land use, but it would really help to add a few percent of the city, like along more arterials.

6. We don't zone very high. Much like Portland, only a tiny area allows highrises, and even the lowrise zones are often 45'. We're upzoning some small areas but not enough to keep supply cheap.

7. Accessory units are mostly not allowed. Or you can take a chance and apply through a difficult process, and if you fail then your current illegal unit can be taken away. So people do it illegally, but most just don't try. It's a cave in to the same people worried about free street parking or the poor folks moving in.

8. Some of the Council wants linkage fees. These would be a net addition to what most projects pay, either through a fee up to $22/sf (about 10% more development cost for a lot of jobs) or affordable housing onsite (more palatable in some cases). Some non-industry people claim that this will be eaten up by lower land costs, but that's pure stupidity. Nobody sells land when the price just dropped by half. They just need to wait a few years for rents to rise and then the land will be close to its original value.

More about that. Rents for any growing open market are largely driven by development costs. If rents are too low, nothing will get built, and if they're too high developers will add too many new units. That applies to existing units, not just new ones. With the new fees maybe you're adding a few hundred units per year in affordable units. But given that over half of Seattle's 340,000(?) units are rentals, you're making 170,000 units more expensive, plus anything new.

9. The best thing we can do is keep supply ahead of demand. New units can't be really cheap unless they're super-micros. But as we build new housing, the old housing is less in demand. Today's main affordable housing in what was market-rate in 1920 or 1970. Further, since we don't have rent control (per state constitution), those units go to the people that need them, not whoever tied them up 30 years ago and makes plenty of money but still likes their cheap unit. We're doing reasonably well on new supply, aside from the current tech boom getting us behind a bit particularly a year ago when rents were rising more quickly.
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