Canada's Next Major Metropolitan Areas?

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Docere

Saskatoon and Regina are about the same size as Edmonton and Calgary in 1960.

When did the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs reach the 700K threshold?

[MolsonExport]

mid to late 80s I believe

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't see why people think Victoria will become a next major Metro. Victoria is growing below the national average. It gets a decent number of people moving to it from other parts of the country due to it's pleasant climate but most of those people are retirees so they are not long for this world and are way past their kid bearing years.

Saskatoon is growing quickly but has a Long time to go before it even reaches London and/or KWC's current population. I would say it's KWC with London 2nd.

No, Metro Victoria is growing above the national average. Between 2011 and 2016 it grew 6.7% versus the national average of 5%:

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/c...rate-1.3278184

[Docere]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

When did the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs reach the 700K threshold?

What's so special about the 700K threshold?

[Spocket]

As far as I'm concerned, nothing in the Golden Horseshoe will ever be more than a suburb of Toronto with the possible exception of Hamilton.

K-W? Well, sure but it needs some form of unity with a common center. Technically, we're only talking about 4 cities that just happen to be in the same general area (Kitchener, Waterloo, Guelph and Cambridge) I'm guessing that part of its success as of late has more to do with people who've had enough of Toronto rather than some great lure the region is using to bait economic growth. If this continues then it stands to reason that it will be the country's next major metro area.

If it's not in Ontario then it pretty much has to be in the west somewhere. I can't see any leaders in that case, however. You've got the boomtowns in the 100K range all over Alberta and B.C. but they've got too far to go to realistically expect any of them to make up major CMAs any time soon.

So you've got Saskatoon and Victoria. Saskatoon is growing at a pretty quick rate lately but that has far more to do with a downturn in the oil patch than much else. Lest we forget, Saskatchewan as a whole was stagnant for quite some time despite having so much going for it. In other words, it could end tomorrow. Certainly, oil is being phased out and eventually this will give people fewer reasons to move to Alberta in the first place but that's still a long way off.

[north 42]

Windsor has been gaining momentum for a while now, and I think will surprise many people in the coming decade. While I have no illusion that it will become the next major metro, I do feel that it has the potential to really boom and grow fairly big, especially with possible HSR to Toronto in the works!

The economy is very good, with record low unemployment rates (4.6%) it has a very healthy real estate market, with quickly rising home prices, and rising population growth rates. Also, it’s rather mild climate by Canadian standards doesn’t hurt either, and will help attract even more people from across the country to retire here!

Detroit’s recent renaissance also helps make this area more attractive as well!

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Docere

What's so special about the 700K threshold?

it is the Ikea threshold.

[Beedok]

My money is on Saskatoon (or maybe Regina, long term the growth balance could flip).

But in the eyes of most Canadians the answer is probably Edmonton, since it doesn't really seem like a 'major metro' in the public eye quite yet.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by Beedok

My money is on Saskatoon (or maybe Regina, long term the growth balance could flip).

But in the eyes of most Canadians the answer is probably Edmonton, since it doesn't really seem like a 'major metro' in the public eye quite yet.

What? Edmonton is definately a major metro already!

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Spocket

As far as I'm concerned, nothing in the Golden Horseshoe will ever be more than a suburb of Toronto with the possible exception of Hamilton.

K-W? Well, sure but it needs some form of unity with a common center. Technically, we're only talking about 4 cities that just happen to be in the same general area (Kitchener, Waterloo, Guelph and Cambridge) I'm guessing that part of its success as of late has more to do with people who've had enough of Toronto rather than some great lure the region is using to bait economic growth. If this continues then it stands to reason that it will be the country's next major metro area.

If it's not in Ontario then it pretty much has to be in the west somewhere. I can't see any leaders in that case, however. You've got the boomtowns in the 100K range all over Alberta and B.C. but they've got too far to go to realistically expect any of them to make up major CMAs any time soon.

.....

Since that will not happen (unless you count Uptown, a denser Mid-Town, and Downtown as a single K-W centre of the future), one asks "why"? What is the problem if K-W has two urban centres, and Cambridge a third? Since all three are growing that seems the most likely urban form.

[MonctonRad]

Perspective from the east

Given the title of this thread, obviously the only candidate for a new "major" metropolitan area is Halifax, but I thought I would give my predictions for Atlantic Canadian cities in general:

HALIFAX (2017 CMA population estimate 431,701).

The city of Halifax is the Atlantic Canadian champion for urban growth, and really the only economic engine for the province of NS. It has the highest brand recognition elsewhere in the country and an impressive educational infrastructure, as well as a major port, the east coast naval establishment and many regional head offices. At present the city is growing by more than 5,000 per year, and I don't think this will change. This could even accelerate if more immigrants choose Halifax to live. In addition, large parts of eastern Hants County will likely be incorporated into the Halifax CMA in the near future (based on commuting patterns). As such, my population prediction for Halifax in 2030 is ~ 520,000

ST. JOHN's (2017 CMA population estimate 219,200)

Capital and only real growth centre in Newfoundland. A really nice city, but growth prospects limited by isolation, with most migrants coming from elsewhere in the province. This well of people will eventually dry up and unless the city can find new domestic and/or international streams of immigration, growth potential will be more limited than it's regional rival (Halifax). At present, the city is growing by about 2,500/yr but I think this might taper off somewhat in the future. I think the CMA boundaries are stable. As such, my 2030 population prediction for St. John's is ~ 245,000

MONCTON (2017 CMA population estimate 152,169)

Located in the geographic centre of the region, Moncton has natural advantages in distribution, transportation and commercial activities. There are also surprising strengths in health care, education, banking and insurance. Moncton is also the "Capitale d'Acadie" and the default urban centre for francophone NB. Because of this Moncton will continue to do well in terms of growth. At present, the city is growing by about 2,000/yr and this growth rate has been pretty stable over the last 15 years or so. The CMA boundaries will likely grow to include Shediac/Cap Pele/Cocagne very soon. As such, my population prediction for Moncton in 2030 is ~ 188,000

SAINT JOHN (2017 CMA population estimate 128,541)

Everyone roots for Saint John. The city has an impressive built form in it's core and a tremendous sense of history and place, but it's been difficult for the city to shake it's heavy industry persona and reputation. The city hasn't grown much in the last 40 years, and it's regional reach doesn't extend much beyond the Fundy coast of NB. These factors will limit future growth unless the city can reinvent it's image. The CMA boundaries for Saint John should remain stable. As such, my population prediction for Saint John in 2030 is ~ 135,000

FREDERICTON - not currently a CMA, but should become one in either 2021 or 2026. The CA has a current population of about 105,000.

Fredericton has the advantages of having two universities, the provincial government, and Canada's largest army base in suburban Oromocto. There is a growing IT sector in the city. Growth has been steady and should continue into the future. As such, my prediction for the (eventual) Fredericton CMA population in 2030 will be ~ 125,000

[SignalHillHiker]

I'm not sure we will recognize it for what it is when it happens. It will likely be in Southern Ontario, and get lumped in with Toronto by people outside that region. Or it'll simply extend some existing corridor - a suddenly quite large Chilliwack or Red Deer or whatever.

But I can't imagine a new major region will rise quickly enough to change the status quo. Saskatchewan's cities will likely boom, but never enough to overtake Alberta's, and Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver will remain far ahead. So in our minds will it really be any different?

I think it's very unlikely to happen, but the one I think would shake up impressions most is Yellowknife. If the Arctic opens up to shipping and development and the like, and Yellowknife booms to even the current size of St. John's, I think the impact and presence of that on Canadians' sense of Canada will be greater than a shake-up of the population rankings in the south. We'd likely end up with an 11th province, for example. And it would pull on Canada's politics and the like in a weaker but similar way as the rising West has been the past few decades.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Perspective from the east

Given the title of this thread, obviously the only candidate for a new "major" metropolitan area is Halifax, but I thought I would give my predictions for Atlantic Canadian cities in general:

HALIFAX (2017 CMA population estimate 431,701).
ST. JOHN's (2017 CMA population estimate 208,795)
MONCTON (2017 CMA population estimate 152,169)
SAINT JOHN (2017 CMA population estimate 128,541)

Agree completely with your assessment of St. John's current circumstances, but our 2017 population estimate is actually 219,200. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I think it's very unlikely to happen, but the one I think would shake up impressions most is Yellowknife. If the Arctic opens up to shipping and development and the like, and Yellowknife booms to even the current size of St. John's, I think the impact and presence of that on Canadians' sense of Canada will be greater than a shake-up of the population rankings in the south. We'd likely end up with an 11th province, for example. And it would pull on Canada's politics and the like in a weaker but similar way as the rising West has been the past few decades.

I agree with this. Canada needs a northern metropolis, and Yellowknife is the most likely candidate. A vertically oriented growth corridor extending from Lethbridge - Calgary - Red Deer - Edmonton - Peace River - Yellowknife and then on up the MacKenzie River Valley to Inuvik would do a lot to shake up the horizontally oriented perceptions of this country

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Agree completely with your assessment of St. John's current circumstances, but our 2017 population estimate is actually 219,200. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm

Sorry about that - honest mistake, I read the number from the wrong column on my table. I will make corrections (including to my prediction).

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by Spocket

...So you've got Saskatoon and Victoria. Saskatoon is growing at a pretty quick rate lately but that has far more to do with a downturn in the oil patch than much else. Lest we forget, Saskatchewan as a whole was stagnant for quite some time despite having so much going for it. In other words, it could end tomorrow. Certainly, oil is being phased out and eventually this will give people fewer reasons to move to Alberta in the first place but that's still a long way off.

Saskatchewan economy has been thriving for quite sometime, GDP in the province is larger than a similar sized province next door and larger than the entire Maritimes.

Saskatchewan tax payers have individually paid more into transfer payments to equalization program more than the province has ever recieved back. Saskatchewan's population boomed to be 3rd most populous province hundred years ago, but with green revolution in agriculture, transition of population from largely rural to mostly urban population today has taken place without need for exponential population growth.

Times have changed though and for Saskatchewan's economy to continue growing an increase in population in it's cities is needed.

Saskatoon is in the heart of this renaissance, the city's economy is nicknamed POW city because of Potash, Oil, & Wheat at the heart of it's economy.

Saskatoon's other industries like Mining & Uranium companies are world leaders in their industries. Unless global population stops growing & doesn't reach it's expected 50% increase by 2050, Saskatchewan commodities will also be growing in demand, especially more fertilizer and more food, Saskatoon's Nutrien, as the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, will be part of that growth.

Just this last month with India's chick pea production devastated, Saskatchewan chick pea and pulse crop production will be relied on even more.

https://www.goift.com/news/140404-pu...years-higgins/

Also just this last week, Saskatchewan was award part of the $1 Billion by the federal government to invest in SuperCluster project in increasing Canada's share of global protein production.

PIC will move Canada to second place in global agricultural exports and fifth in agri-food exports, equivalent to an additional US$30 billion in exports in today’s distribution of global export shares, and representing nearly 2% of current national GDP. Plant based protein is a $13 billion market opportunity.
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/navdeep-bains-and-the-silicon-plant-people-from-saskatchewan/

https://news.usask.ca/articles/resea...nced-today.php

The University of Saskatchewan is part of Saskatoon's rapid growth rate. U of S is member of the U15 group of Canadian Research Universities, and is top ten for universities to receive research money in Canada.
Biotech is large part of U of S research but other disciplines like VIDO located on campus, Nuclear Physics including Saskatchewan Linear Accelerator Laboratory and Canada's Light Source Synchrotron is located on campus. Also the U of S Plasma Physics Laboratory operates Canada's only Tokamak called STOR-M.


http://acfta.ca/data/documents/Xiao-...ton-171104.pdf

Even though oil industry has had a hiccup last couple years, Saskatoon's economy and population growth hasn't skipped a beat.

[Blader]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Since that will not happen (unless you count Uptown, a denser Mid-Town, and Downtown as a single K-W centre of the future), one asks "why"? What is the problem if K-W has two urban centres, and Cambridge a third? Since all three are growing that seems the most likely urban form.

Isn't there even more? Cambridge is an amalgamation of what, 3 towns? Each with their own charm. If I lived in the burbs with a nearby historical village/town center, urban in form, I'd be delighted.

[thefourthtower]

Regina is doing extremely well in population growth it's been in the top four for the last couple of years , new stadium new high rises , two billion dollar super hi way, number two in growth two years in a row the new super cluster that was announced has a very high Regina presence through AGT Foods the growth in Saskatchewan fast been great not just a Saskatoon thing , Regina is also in the mix and great things are happening

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Blader

Isn't there even more? Cambridge is an amalgamation of what, 3 towns? Each with their own charm. If I lived in the burbs with a nearby historical village/town center, urban in form, I'd be delighted.

Cambridge (Preston) and Cambridge (Hespeler) also have their own urban cores, although they look and feel more "town" and "village", respectively, than "city".

There are a number of other towns/villages in the Region that have old cores and growing suburbs, including Elmira, New Hamburg, Ayr, Wellesley, and St Jacobs.

[GreatTallNorth2]

London is clearly far enough away from Toronto to be it’s own metro and it has one distinct downtown. It’s not growing as fast ast KWC but it is a hub for southwestern Ontario as far as shopping, medical, entertainment, education etc. I’m not saying that Kitchener isn’t going to be a distinct metro and as a Londoner we are jealous of what it happening there, but for all the reasons that have already been mentioned it might be hard for it to be distinct from the gta.

I would think that Halifax would also be considered the next big metro as it is naturally the main city in the east. This might sound funny but consider where IKEA has added/announced its newest stores: Halifax, Quebec City, London, all regional cities in their area.