Amazon HQ2 thread

[spoonman]

They're probably trying to squeeze more incentives out of these cities so they can get a better deal from the city Amazon really wants. USPS also subsidizes Amazon.

[ocman]

Originally Posted by osmo

This is one of the reasons Indianapolis stuck our for me. I'm not aware of its heavy research or education attributes.

Indiana University is one of those never-in-the-news schools that churns out more brilliant graduates than one would assume. That school is a best-kept-secret in terms of talent pool.

[Hudson11]

I'm rooting for Newark.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Keeping 20 cities in the initial cut surprises me.

Sure, they had 200 submissions, but anyone who read the RFP could (and many in the media did) quickly eliminate all except for about 20 or fewer cities.

The whole process seems contrived and postured. Are they really considering 20 cities? Or it is a combination of a "PR game" (oooh, so many WONDERFUL cities to chose from, we LOVE you all) and a "stalking horse" strategy to pressure the "real" 2 or 3 cities on which they've focused their interest.

If you are at Amazon with responsibility for this project, read your own damn RFP, know the corporate culture, know what's most important for Amazon, and know what your marching orders are from Bezos, then you are a complete idiot if you can't quickly get your choices down to 3-5 cities.

I suspect that's been done, and this is all a big drama queen show by Bezos and Amazon to solicit ever more groveling (and positive publicity about the glories of Amazon) from all of the candidates before they get down to business with a very small number of serious targets.

Also: it wouldn't' surprise me if Amazon said, after all the proposals, that "we've changed our mind", we've decided to split Hq2 between 2 or 3 cities. This actually makes more sense in my view - putting that many jobs and investments in a single city (unless it's Chicago, NY or LA), will just drive up your own costs and re-create the problem that caused Amazon to look beyond Seattle in the first instance.

Agreed. Amazon could've easily narrowed it to a list of 8-10 at most.

Just looking at the list, anyone can immediately cross off these cities as having no chance due to insufficient talent pool:
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Denver
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Montgomery County
Nashville
Newark
New York
Northern Virginia
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Raleigh
Toronto
Washington, D.C.

From there, you could probably eliminate NYC, Newark, DC, Boston, and LA due to cost, and in LA's case, proximity to Seattle. So these are probably your actual top 8 candidates:
Atlanta
Austin
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Philadelphia
Raleigh
Toronto

From here, I think it's a toss up. It'll come down to a composite of how Amazon ranks urbanity, transportation, cost of living, current talent pool and projected growth, and whatever incentives are thrown in.

[Innsertnamehere]

The one with the reckless subsidy program? If Newark happens, it'll put the state in a worse financial condition than before it. $7 billion is a lot of money, even for a state.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The one with the reckless subsidy program? If Newark happens, it'll put the state in a worse financial condition than before it. $7 billion is a lot of money, even for a state.

Agreed! It should be illegal. It just encourages a race to the bottom with taxpayer's money. I'm amazed at how some people point to food stamps for abuse yet don't bat an eye at $7 billion in corporate welfare. There's economic development and then they're New Jersey's proposal to attract HQ2.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Agreed. Amazon could've easily narrowed it to a list of 8-10 at most.

Just looking at the list, anyone can immediately cross off these cities as having no chance due to insufficient talent pool:
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Denver
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Montgomery County
Nashville
Newark
New York
Northern Virginia
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Raleigh
Toronto
Washington, D.C.

From there, you could probably eliminate NYC, Newark, DC, Boston, and LA due to cost, and in LA's case, proximity to Seattle. So these are probably your actual top 8 candidates:
Atlanta
Austin
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Philadelphia
Raleigh
Toronto

From here, I think it's a toss up. It'll come down to a composite of how Amazon ranks urbanity, transportation, cost of living, current talent pool and projected growth, and whatever incentives are thrown in.

That's a pretty good 8 but I don't see Canada working politically. The RPF would exclude Raleigh.

I'm saying this is top 5 in order.


Chicago
Atlanta
Philadelphia
DC area
Dallas metro

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Detroit's just a hard sell with its perception (rightly or wrongly) of being a crime-ridden, bankrupt, impoverished, has-been hellhole.

Turns out I was right.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article...ain-disqussion

He said his read of Sullivan's response was that Amazon was concerned about the region's mass transportation system and its ability to attract talent in a sustainable, long-term way.

[Kngkyle]

They are really making a game of this. 20? really? They should have cut it down to 10 at least. This is basically every big city that applied for it sans Detroit.

zzz

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Agreed. Amazon could've easily narrowed it to a list of 8-10 at most.

Just looking at the list, anyone can immediately cross off these cities as having no chance due to insufficient talent pool:
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Denver
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Montgomery County
Nashville
Newark
New York
Northern Virginia
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Raleigh
Toronto
Washington, D.C.

Why would northern VA and Montgomery County not have sufficient labor pools while DC does?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dktshb

Why are people shocked about LA? Amazon Studios is expanding and so is Steve Bezos' house. He has also been spotted Downtown more than a few times.

Only because I assume that they don't want another city on the West Coast.

[cannedairspray]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Why would northern VA and Montgomery County not have sufficient labor pools while DC does?

Exactly what I was wondering. Doesn't seem like a lot of thought went into his culling.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Why would northern VA and Montgomery County not have sufficient labor pools while DC does?

Originally Posted by cannedairspray

Exactly what I was wondering. Doesn't seem like a lot of thought went into his culling.

Why did Amazon separate them on their list then?

[cannedairspray]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Why did Amazon separate them on their list then?

Because they put in different bids?

[a very long weekend]

Wow, looks like most of my thoughts have already been noted.

1. Three choices from the DC area, where many smart people think Bezos wants to set up a new business as a power play (just bought the WaPo, bought DC's largest mansion, ramping up lobbying, etc).
2. A very political list that includes a lot of cities strictly so as to thank their political leaders for participating, and not to generate ill-will in the local press.
3. Very likely they have 2-3 choices in mind, and are down to 1-2.
4. Amazon is still expanding in a major way in Seattle, so one has to imagine that whatever plan the company has for HQ2 won't see a giant buildout, but rather a continuous expansion, possibly centralizing operations that are spread out in cities around the US. Canadian jobs will stay, because it's a good place to stick the people from India and elsewhere who fail the H2B lottery.
5. So, to guess which city will get it, we'd have to look at the bids, specifically looking for sites where Amazon can expand gradually but still have high quality amenities all around. That nixes any giant brownfield or greenfield campuses. It also probably nixes giant masterplans with unclear buildout timelines, unless they're adjacent to existing amenities (a Hudson yards scenario).

So, including all the other criteria, maybe these:
1. Chicago
2. DC/Montgomery County, Md./NOVA
3. Philadelphia
4. Atlanta
5. Newark

Dark horses:
- NYC (speaks for itself, they have the sites, and becoming an NYC company just has a certain mystique)
- Los Angeles (has the sites, transit is improving, housing will improve, another city with a certain mystique)
- Miami (extremely friendly environment, can build anything, decent and improving transit, low taxes and affordable housing)

Sorry, Canadians, Toronto probably would be an ideal choice, particularly given the immigration situation, but it would invoke the wrath of Trump, who is already anti-Bezos, and then Trump's inane rants would be taken up as Republican positions, and then Amazon would be targeted. Just as Bezos wants more power in DC.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Why would northern VA and Montgomery County not have sufficient labor pools while DC does?

They do. He's wrong about that.

[Londonee]

Everyone has continually harped on cost and cost of living as a hugely important factor but it wasn't mentioned in the RFP. Where did that come from? Is that an SSP-based rumor? Are people reading between the lines - or was there an additional announcement where this was brought up?

• Metropolitan areas with a population of over 1 million
• A stable and business-friendly environment
• Within 30 miles (48 km) of a population center
• Within 45 minutes of an international airport
• Proximity to major highways and arterial roads 1–3 miles (2–5 km)
• Access to mass transit routes
• Up to 8 million square feet (740,000 m2) of office space for future expansion
• Optional preferences include airports with direct flights to Seattle, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., urban locations, and proximity to major universities.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Everyone has continually harped on cost and cost of living as a hugely important factor but it wasn't mentioned in the RFP. Where did that come from? Is that an SSP-based rumor? Are people reading between the lines - or was there an additional announcement where this was brought up?

• Metropolitan areas with a population of over 1 million
• A stable and business-friendly environment
• Within 30 miles (48 km) of a population center
• Within 45 minutes of an international airport
• Proximity to major highways and arterial roads 1–3 miles (2–5 km)
• Access to mass transit routes
• Up to 8 million square feet (740,000 m2) of office space for future expansion
• Optional preferences include airports with direct flights to Seattle, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., urban locations, and proximity to major universities.

A savvy contractor is able to read between the lines of an RFP/RFQ. It may not be explicitly written

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Everyone has continually harped on cost and cost of living as a hugely important factor but it wasn't mentioned in the RFP. Where did that come from? Is that an SSP-based rumor? Are people reading between the lines - or was there an additional announcement where this was brought up?

• Metropolitan areas with a population of over 1 million
• A stable and business-friendly environment
• Within 30 miles (48 km) of a population center
• Within 45 minutes of an international airport
• Proximity to major highways and arterial roads 1–3 miles (2–5 km)
• Access to mass transit routes
• Up to 8 million square feet (740,000 m2) of office space for future expansion
• Optional preferences include airports with direct flights to Seattle, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., urban locations, and proximity to major universities.

Yes, we're all just speculating. That's part of the fun IMO.

[Atlanta3000]

Worth noting the main reason Washington DC lost the bid to host the Olympics was the lack of coordination of the three entities and competing factions - DC, VA and MD. I suspect this will also take the area out of the running for Amazon's HQ2 as well.