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  #2121  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 8:26 PM
Natoma Natoma is offline
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My theory Rahm is going for a real payday with HQ2 some high end VP making millions...
Rahm visited my friend's office (a big PE shop) last week. Apparently Rahm said he wasn't running because he doesn't want to support his family on ~100k anymore. He mentioned that fact that his kids are almost college age as a big factor.
My friend got the sense that the visit was part of Rahm scoping out the post-mayoral job market.
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  #2122  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 8:52 PM
moorhosj moorhosj is offline
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Rahm visited my friend's office (a big PE shop) last week. Apparently Rahm said he wasn't running because he doesn't want to support his family on ~100k anymore. He mentioned that fact that his kids are almost college age as a big factor.
My friend got the sense that the visit was part of Rahm scoping out the post-mayoral job market.
A dubious claim as the mayoral salary is $216k. The part about scoping the job market does make some sense:

Quote:
In his first six years in office, Mayor Rahm Emanuel made nearly $2.2 million, an average income of about $365,000 per year, according to newly released tax returns from the mayor.
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  #2123  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 8:54 PM
Khantilever Khantilever is offline
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Originally Posted by tjp View Post
^Agreed.

However, maybe it's a possibility that Amazon is choosing to split up HQ2, and Chicago will be the base of it's brick and mortar retail operations...
There have been a lot of rumors to the effect that Amazon is splitting its retail—not just brick and mortar but online—from web services and related functions. That is a more sensible outcome than a split right down the middle, but is still consistent with Amazon’s statement that the two HQs will be equal (as both parts are of roughly equal size, revenue-wise).

Seen in that context, I think the Amazon Go stores are a weak but positive signal for Chicago.
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  #2124  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 10:23 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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It would make sense for Amazon to split up certain things for this new HQ2. Who knows that will be - maybe retail - maybe not. I am looking at their HQ2 requirements doc and it says this:

Quote:
The jobs will likely be broken down into the following categories: executive/management, engineering with a preference for software development engineers (SDE), legal, accounting, and administrative
I've already talked before about the reality of tech companies and how it's not just a ton of different software developers sitting around - there's tons of different types of jobs that are needed to support this. The lines also blur on who is considered a software developer - my manager last week told me they're trying to get a bunch of people that aren't currently software developers to actually commit code at least once every week and kind of blur the lines. I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if Amazon was doing things like this too already (i.e. a business analyst is committing code of some kind even). This is why I think a lot of articles are completely missing the mark when they weigh pros/cons of every finalist city. I think most articles are written by and for people who have no experience in any of these settings and think it's 98% pure software developers sitting around. They focus on just one part of the labor force - and even with that, there's certain people needed that organizations like BLS don't even report as belonging to technical roles when they actually do.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen, but I would be surprised if whatever goes in HQ2 is not the HQ of a big business unit of theirs (i.e. "retail" or whatever you want to call it).
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  #2125  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 10:55 PM
Chisouthside Chisouthside is offline
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Traditional non tech companies are definitely asking for more tech skills from analyst type positions. Alot of the analyst positions I see online require python scripting experience.
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  #2126  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 11:03 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by Chisouthside View Post
Traditional non tech companies are definitely asking for more tech skills from analyst type positions. Alot of the analyst positions I see online require python scripting experience.
Yeah it's interesting - and most of the business analysts I work with used to be developers or have degrees in something like computer science/software engineering and barely used it and instead did things like business analysis or product management almost instantly out of school. It is helpful for them, but for us they would never commit code but that's changing. I think a lot more companies are trying to make their teams kind of T shaped with respect to skills.

Point is though that in a big company with actual well defined process of some kind of product, there's a lot of different roles you might hire for other than traditional software developers. Even if you are T shaped and doing continuous production deployment, at that scale there's still kind of a monolithic element to roles in a way. I think a lot of articles completely miss this reality and focus on some of the wrong things when they talk about talent pools because they are focusing on too narrow of job type that you might find in statistics for something like BLS or the QWI from the Census. Some of the 2018 system for SOC is a little better as they actually have a code for software QA now, but they still have nothing for any type of business analyst, product management, etc which could be very specific to tech.
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  #2127  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 11:12 PM
Chisouthside Chisouthside is offline
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Yeah usually for client facing software on top of developers they need data people, business requirement analysts, PMs, trainers, testers, technical writers.
Traditional firms will typically require less people to automate certain internal tasks but like building new, customer facing software from a company like google, ebay etc can require hundreds of people that aren't software developers.

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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Yeah it's interesting - and most of the business analysts I work with used to be developers or have degrees in something like computer science/software engineering and barely used it and instead did things like business analysis. It is helpful, but for us they would never commit code.

Point is though that in a big company with actual well defined process of some kind of product, there's a lot of different roles you might hire for other than traditional software developers. I think a lot of articles completely miss this reality and focus on some of the wrong things.
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  #2128  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 11:21 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by Chisouthside View Post
Yeah usually for client facing software on top of developers they need data people, business requirement analysts, PMs, trainers, testers, technical writers.
Traditional firms will typically require less people to automate certain internal tasks but like building new, customer facing software from a company like google, ebay etc can require hundreds of people that aren't software developers.
Yep - I've dealt with that my entire career making client facing software. I just can't believe when I read articles about HQ2 how narrow they're looking at roles. You can tell most of these people have never worked in this capacity anytime recently. On top of that, you can tell they have probably never had to hire even 100 people for these types of jobs. Amazon is going to have to interview a minimum of 500K people to even hit their 50K hired requirement. That should basically disqualify areas like Indianapolis, Columbus, Nashville, and even Austin and possibly even Denver from this thing from the get go. Only the largest areas with 5+ million people can really make this happen within their timeframe.
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  #2129  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 12:45 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Google ex-CEO, AOL co-founder are putting money into Chicago companies. Here’s why.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...008-story.html

Quote:
“In Chicago, where there are way less funds (than on the coasts), that numbers game gets a lot harder,” said Saunders, who founded the Chicago-based company, which sells salads and other meals from vending machines. “You need to talk to a lot more people than are even available to talk to in Chicago.”

Local investors are helpful: The networks they provide are often crucial to young companies, and they’re active in town as mentors and sources of funding. The amount of money flowing into Chicago-area startups through deals with at least one local investor hit $1.2 billion in 2017, a six-year high, according to data from deal-tracking site Pitchbook.

But the pool of capital available in Chicago isn’t big enough to help some startups reach the next level of growth, so local companies are grabbing the attention of venture capitalists on the coasts.
Quote:
Steve Case: AOL co-founder

..

“In the Midwest, there’s a perspective or the tendency to take a little bit longer-term view. There’s a tendency to be more humble — sometimes to a fault,” Case said. “There’s a tendency to try to forge partnerships that could be win-win.”

Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Seed Fund also has a stake in four Chicago companies and is on the hunt for more. Case was in Chicago in September to promote the $150 million fund, which aims to invest in cities like Chicago that aren’t attracting as much venture capital as the coasts.

Quote:
J.D. Vance: Author of New York Times bestseller ‘Hillbilly Elegy’

..

“As advanced as Chicago is, we still think that the quality of the entrepreneur outweighs the access to capital, so there’s a real opportunity for investors like us to come here, spend time here and meet some good companies here,” Vance said during a September visit.

Quote:
New Enterprise Associates

..

“We’re always looking for outstanding companies with amazing products and technology. That’s one of the reasons we’re in Chicago in the first place,” he said. “Those companies are equally likely to pop up in Chicago as they are in the coasts.”
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  #2130  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 1:44 AM
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Randomguy34 Randomguy34 is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Amazon is going to have to interview a minimum of 500K people to even hit their 50K hired requirement.
*Spits drink out of mouth*

That's more than the entire population of Miami!
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  #2131  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 2:19 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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*Spits drink out of mouth*

That's more than the entire population of Miami!
Maybe they get lucky? 250K people if so then. This is based off my jaded self and experiences
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  #2132  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 4:29 AM
bnk bnk is offline
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Originally Posted by moorhosj View Post
A dubious claim as the mayoral salary is $216k. The part about scoping the job market does make some sense:
Seriously that's peanuts. 21K6/yr with kids in collage. A good chunk of that goes away in taxes. I cant even get ahead on that with two kids in HS.

He could get a million dollar sign on bonus, tens of millions in stock and make 250K a month with a real Amazon type of job.

The only time he made real money was



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel

Beginning a career in finance, Emanuel worked at the investment bank Wasserstein Perella & Co. from 1998 for 2½ years, and served on the board of directors of Freddie Mac.



And he likely blew through that already. The rest was of his career was working federal jobs.


One is only truly making wealth unless you are clearing over a million a year. Who do you think are buying all of those thousands of million dollars plus condos or north shore property on the market?

Just in the city limits on Zillow there are 1,241 homes listed over a million dollars.



https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...589_rect/9_zm/

In the Chicagoland area there are 3,446 million dollar and plus homes or condos currently for sale.

Now Imagine how many are not on the market.


https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...122_rect/8_zm/


.



Whos buying them? It isn't federal workers.

Last edited by bnk; Oct 16, 2018 at 5:03 AM.
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  #2133  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 11:45 AM
moorhosj moorhosj is offline
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Seriously that's peanuts. 21K6/yr with kids in collage. A good chunk of that goes away in taxes. I cant even get ahead on that with two kids in HS.

And he likely blew through that already. The rest was of his career was working federal jobs.
Your whole point here ignores the additional $150k/year he is making through other means, likely tied to his time as an investment banker. I’m not sure how you can make $150/year in addition to your labor/salary unless you already have “wealth” to invest. Doesn’t Rahm already own a million dollar house? Not sure how that point is relevant.
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  #2134  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 2:15 PM
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Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
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so sears has declared bankruptcy.

not that we didn't all see that coming a mile away.

i wonder if fate would have been kinder to the former king of retail had they not abandoned downtown and moved out to bumblefuck in the early '90s?
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  #2135  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 2:42 PM
bnk bnk is offline
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Shit it I knew they were done when they combined with K Mart. Sears had a wonderful run hundreds of years. They were the Amazon of their day.
Sears just couldn't understand the internet. They could have bought Amazon back in the 90's if they were smart. So many wrong decisions made over the last two decades. Moving to Hoffman Estates [ they were already declining when they made that move btw ] is not what broke them, it didn't help, but it was lack of vision. To many old retail suits not envisioning and seeing the future.





https://www.chicagobusiness.com/html-page/820491


October 11, 2018 06:00 AM |


Sears' biggest mistake



Sears' sad fate isn't so much a story of operational missteps as one of missed opportunity. In short, the retailer chose to imitate Walmart when it should have tried to pre-empt Amazon.

Back in the 1990s, Sears and other middle-market department stores were losing market share to Walmart, Target and other big-box retailers. Predictably, Sears responded by launching its own big-box chains. Remember Sears Grand and Sears Great Indoors? They came and went with barely a ripple, unable to compete with rivals that invented the big-box concept.

Could Sears have beaten Bezos to the biggest retailing opportunity in 50 years? With the right timing, foresight and fortitude, I think so.

Consider the lay of the land 25 years ago. Bezos was an unknown upstart with little capital and credibility. Sears was a 110-year-old industry powerhouse with $35 billion in annual revenue. It had strong brands—Sears, Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard—along with highly developed capabilities in marketing, merchandising and supply chain operations. Its stores generated powerful cash flows, and investors welcomed its stock and bond offerings.
Ironically, Sears also could claim to have been the Amazon of the 20th century, when it reached customers via catalog and delivered goods through a network of warehouses, railroads and wagons.

Yes, launching a full-fledged online retailing operation would have raised eyebrows in 1995. "Disruption" and "creative destruction" weren't the talismanic buzzwords they've become, and companies weren't yet exhorted to cannibalize their business before somebody else did. Sears would have encountered resistance on Wall Street and within its own ranks. Yet if Sears had faced and overcome such obstacles, the payoff would have justified the effort many times over.

..

As with so many corporate downfalls, the saddest part of Sears' story isn't what went wrong, but what might have been.










https://www.chicagobusiness.com/html-page/820491

Getty Images

The death of Sears

The once-mighty retailer was the original industry disruptor, perfecting the mail-order catalog and expanding in America's suburbs. But in the end, it was a victim of another retail revolution.



BY STEVEN R. STRAHLER

Oct. 15, 2018

Sears Holdings, the successor to Sears Roebuck, which revolutionized retailing at the turn of the 20th century and grew mighty as America suburbanized, is on its deathbed after a lengthy illness, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today. The 125-year-old company has been bleeding billions of dollars in cash for years.









It's the latest and most prominent casualty in an old-line family of department stores instrumental in the rise of the shopping mall and, later, in their mutual decline. As its health failed, Sears' presence in its hometown of Chicago dwindled to a single store, which closed in April 2018.

Sears had been confined to intensive care for years, kept on life support with hundreds of millions of dollars in loan transfusions from Edward Lampert, its controlling owner and CEO, and his hedge fund, ESL Investments. He stepped down as CEO with today's filing. In early October, the company added a restructuring expert to its board, even as $134 million in borrowings was about to come due—news that was shortly followed, ominously, by word that the company had hired a boutique corporate advisory firm to craft a bankruptcy filing that seemed imminent. It was a far cry from the healthier days, when Sears resided in a namesake Loop skyscraper whose status as the world's tallest building reflected the company's retail hegemony.





Lampert was a Goldman Sachs alum lacking retail experience when he and ESL acquired Sears in 2005, using Kmart, seized in bankruptcy, to engineer a merger. He decided to pull the plug after promised synergies never materialized, and mounting debt and chronic underinvestment in stores led to losses this decade that topped $10 billion.

Surgeons had prolonged Sears' life by amputating thousands of locations and selling or sacrificing rights to familiar brands like Craftsman, Kenmore and DieHard. The post-merger number of locations dwindled from 2,350 full-line stores to 842, as of September. But the hemorrhaging could not be stanched. Shoppers turned to Walmart and other giant discounters, to big-box appliance and electronics stores like Best Buy, and to home-improvement chains like Home Depot and Lowe's.


By 1991, just before Sears left its tower, Walmart had displaced it as the nation's biggest retailer.

Then came Amazon, whose disruption of 21st-century retailing has been compared to the upheaval Sears itself wrought when it perfected the mail-order catalog. Sears started building stores in the 1920s and shrewdly expanded in America's suburbs after World War II.




In the 2012 Crain's interview, Martinez said of Lampert, "I believe that he believed at the time (of the merger) that he had the God-given talent to create a brand-new retail operating model, but he never articulated how his model was going to be any different." Martinez predicted, "Sears is past the tipping point. He's going to preside over a slow liquidation of the company."

Lampert did deliver on one count. At Sears' 2010 annual meeting, he said, "Five years from now, I believe this company, to some people, will be unrecognizable to what it was 30 years ago."

Last edited by bnk; Oct 16, 2018 at 2:59 PM.
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  #2136  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 3:48 PM
emathias emathias is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Maybe they get lucky? 250K people if so then. This is based off my jaded self and experiences
Counting phone interviews, I don't think your first estimate of a half million is far off.

As far as Rahm leaving for more money,I think that's probably a lot of it. $216k is peanuts for someone with Rahms background.

Two decades ago a household income number I call "international middle class" - kind of a misnomer, but basically what it would take to be able to live a professionals lifestyle anywhere in the world with children - was $250-300k. Today that number is closer to $450-500k.

I know that seems crazy to a lot of people, but it's really not. The people who make the world work - the modern equivalent of the Mandarin class - that's what they earn. The best easily earn that one a single income, and the average ones pull it together with dual incomes.
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  #2137  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 5:02 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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^^^ The best don't report incomes that high. If you think Rahm is actually making $200-300k a year you are crazy, he undoubtedly has huge sums of money and income streams that all pay in a tax advantageous way. I doubt what he is reporting is even half of what his gross income is.
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  #2138  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 5:29 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Not to talk about Amazon again, but I've seen a few articles in the past day or so about a decision being "imminent". DC seems to be the hive's favorite for unclear reasons. Any last minute wagers to be made ? Obviously pulling for the beloved, but I'm still hoping Amazon gets shattered in the near term .
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  #2139  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 6:10 PM
emathias emathias is offline
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^^^ The best don't report incomes that high. If you think Rahm is actually making $200-300k a year you are crazy, he undoubtedly has huge sums of money and income streams that all pay in a tax advantageous way. I doubt what he is reporting is even half of what his gross income is.
I didn't mean to imply a) that that was from a single income stream nor b) that it would all be reported nor c) that people like Rahm are typical of "the best." Rahm, and people like him, are "the best of the best," so there's no practical limit to what they could earn. When I said "the best can earn it on a one income," I meant one person's income, not one stream of income (although that might also be true in some cases). My larger point is that in a city like Chicago there are thousands of couples where they both work and both earn "around" $200k. Maybe one earns $350k and one earns $150k, maybe they both earn $225k, but GPs, many corporate lawyers, executives in smaller corporations or upper-middle management in large corporations, upper management government roles, they all pay in that ballpark. There is a lot of variability, but the medians land in those ranges.

And, specific to Rahm, I'm sure his actual income is some multiple of his mayor's salary. But if he didn't have to devote such a huge chunk of his time to one income stream, he could perhaps increase his "day job" income by a factor of ten while also keeping most of the rest of his income streams (unless you believe he's actually super-corrupt and pulling in a ton of bribes that only come because he's Mayor - I don't think he's squeaky clean, but I don't think that he's corrupt in the bribes sense, but I'm sure some people do).
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  #2140  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2018, 6:34 PM
OrdoSeclorum OrdoSeclorum is offline
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Seriously that's peanuts. 21K6/yr with kids in collage. A good chunk of that goes away in taxes. I cant even get ahead on that with two kids in HS.

He could get a million dollar sign on bonus, tens of millions in stock and make 250K a month with a real Amazon type of job.
If you made $25M in a couple years, there's no way to "blow through it" unless you're buying lambos for your extended family. Consumables like food, vacation, transportation, housekeeping.... those don't even touch the interest on that sum. If someone with $15M is buying houses and boats and art, that stuff retains its value and your net worth keeps increasing even as you consume. If Rahm's nine-figure nest egg shrunk instead of doubling or tripling in the last two decades, he would be unfit to be mayor.

And sure, a lot of posters here would see a $216,000/yr household income as a cause for some belt tightening. But that's what a dentist or partner in a small law firm earns. And it's what many executives live off of in retirement. To call it "peanuts" is a trifle glib.
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