Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Indeed. It is amusing to watch all the Chicken Littles (mostly conservatives) set their hair on fire when:

The Conference Board of Canada predicts a 0.5 per cent decline in the economy, and the loss of about 85,000 jobs within a year, if the North American Free Trade Agreement is terminated.

That would be the best-case scenario in a post-NAFTA world, the think-tank says in a new report.

Talks to renegotiate the trade deal enter an expected eighth round in the coming weeks.

While the conference board says its analysis suggests a modest impact on the Canadian economy, it adds several possible reactions are not considered, such as further U.S. trade actions, including non-tariff barriers and a stronger reaction from businesses...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/naf...oard-1.4569047

Now, that doesn't include tariffs the crazed POTUS has threatened but are likely illegal, like 25% on Canadian autos. But Canada could just slap a 25% tariff on vehicles built in the USA in return. We're not living in 1960, Korea, Japan and Europe all make lots of vehicles perfectly suited to Canada now.

I've wondered how that might play out. I agree that there would likely be a reciprocal tarriff, perhaps exempting vehicles with a set percentage of Canadian content. I wonder if the Canadian government might not also introduce measures to promote the production of more models in Canada - i.e. if cars are going to be more expensive anyway, why not assemble them here? A bit like how things were prior to the Auto Pact, although they didn't have the Japanese, Korean, and European competition back then.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

I am less and less enthused about his new fork of classical liberalism. So he is a crankier Conservative... bfd.

The libertarian moment was like 2006-9... more recent than the late-90s golden age of the Third Way but newer thoughts are needed.

It was quite obvious that Off was just waiting to pounce on Bernier.

[vid]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It was quite obvious that Off was just waiting to pounce on Bernier.

If what she did was pounce on him, he did little to actually defend himself. Maybe he's just not good enough at English to hold his own? Like I said, he has the same scrambled uncertainty and inconsistency in his beliefs that Jordan Peterson does, and that's going to be a hurdle for him when it comes to convincing people that his party, not Scheer's, is a better representation for them.

[Acajack]

Oh I agree his reponses were horrible. I could have done better and I am not even a Maximizer. He needs some strategists and comms people urgently. I wonder how he did with Wendy Mesley.

[vid]

I just read the transcript, she tried to pigeonhole him into receiving funding and support from the Kochs and Rebel Media, and he pushed back successfully. It was a better interview for him because she allowed him to just reinforce his statements that "I'm a political party not a think tank" and "corporations cannot donate to political parties/I'm going to end corporate welfare".

Her questions honestly weren't very good, she tried too hard to conflate him with American special interests and Libertarians and he pushed back a little better this time, someone must have talked to him. But Wendy Mesley isn't as good at asking questions as Carol Off.

Generally, the best interviews of politicians are when you have someone who has very different opinions than their guest, or someone who is passionate enough about the debate that they ask difficult questions and follow up questions. Carol Off wanted to "own" him and asked questions that were harder for him to provide an answer to, and Mesley just wanted to make one thing stick to him and kept hammering at it until it fell to the floor while he repeated the talking points that I won't doubt someone discussed with him in the past couple days so he was better prepared for this.

[Loco101]

Nanos poll just released showing that results wouldn't be too much different than the last election in 2014:

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploa...8-09-28-FR.pdf

[kwoldtimer]

Other than a potential NAFTA "bump" for the Liberals in the coming month, I don't see much on the immediate horizon to generate big shifts in public opinion. Moving into 2019, of course, the implementation of carbon pricing, the next stage of the TransMountain process, and (I think) potential clashes with the new Quebec government could have unpredictable effects on public opinion heading in to the 2019 election.

[Dengler Avenue]

This is not to mention that the libs pissed all the dairy farmers off. At least that secures the rural votes for PC...?

[MonctonRad]

I can't imagine a CAQ victory in Quebec will be good for JT. The provincial Liberal governments are all dropping like flies. No matter how hard Brian Gallant tries to hang on in NB, he will ultimately have to resign. He just doesn't have the numbers.........

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Other than a potential NAFTA "bump" for the Liberals in the coming month, I don't see much on the immediate horizon to generate big shifts in public opinion. Moving into 2019, of course, the implementation of carbon pricing, the next stage of the TransMountain process, and (I think) potential clashes with the new Quebec government could have unpredictable effects on public opinion heading in to the 2019 election.

I wouldn't discount the marijuana thingy either, if perchance things don't go smoothly.

It's funny how some people can get hung up on things of that nature.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I wouldn't discount the marijuana thingy either, if perchance things don't go smoothly.

It's funny how some people can get hung up on things of that nature.

I think cannabis will be a bit of a mess in many regards for the next couple of years at least. I have been a bit puzzled by Quebec's seemingly more conservative take on cannabis legalization. I'm not sure where my anticipated mess would lead to federal-provincial conflict, however.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I think cannabis will be a bit of a mess in many regards for the next couple of years at least. I have been a bit puzzled by Quebec's seemingly more conservative take on cannabis legalization. I'm not sure where my anticipated mess would lead to federal-provincial conflict, however.

Well what the Liberals in Quebec had in mind basically mirrors what the Ford Tories have announced for Ontario. However the CAQ has said they will raise the legal limit to 21 which they are within their legal rights to do.

I am pretty sure they can also change some of the parameters regarding where you can smoke pot (as in walking down the street or not). Not sure where they will go with that though.

But I don't see much of a Ottawa-Quebec fight on this either.

[CityTech]

I've long thought it curious that Quebecers are so much more conservative about cannabis than Anglo-Canadians, given that for alcohol it's reversed (Quebecers being much more liberal). Perhaps the reduced exposure to the Anglosphere pop culture which has viewed cannabis fairly positively for decades, is behind it?

Raising the legal age to 21 will result in a lot of 19 and 20 year old Quebecers driving to Ontario to buy their weed. If I were a cannabis seller I'd be looking to get a license for a store in Hawkesbury ASAP. There will plenty of Gatinois buying weed in Ottawa, too, thanks to both Ontario's younger age limit and greater availability in private stores.. a complete reversal of the pattern of Ottawans buying booze in Gatineau. If I were that seller I'd want a store at Lyon Station (the main spot in Ottawa for transit connections to Gatineau) too.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by CityTech

I've long thought it curious that Quebecers are so much more conservative about cannabis than Anglo-Canadians, given that for alcohol it's reversed (Quebecers being much more liberal). Perhaps the reduced exposure to the Anglosphere pop culture which has viewed cannabis fairly positively for decades, is behind it?
.

Those are some interesting ideas. I've also been wondering about why Quebecers are slightly more conservative on this specific issue, when they're generally very live and let live on anything related to the concept of morality.

One reason I came up with is that the fight to ban cigarette smoking was a lot tougher in Quebec than in the rest of the country. It's only fairly recently that we've gotten that rock over the top of the hill here.

For quite a few years after anti-smoking legislation was in place in Quebec you'd still fairly regularly encounter people flouting the laws by smoking in places like buses, malls, restaurants.

Now things are pretty much the same as they are in the rest of the country, but how things were before is still fresh in a lot of people's minds.

Just a theory...

[GreaterMontréal]

It's more like '' le Montréal urbain vs les régions '' the moment you step outside of the central core of the GMA, people become more conservative. Like in the US.

[Laceoflight]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Raising the legal age to 21 will result in a lot of 19 and 20 year old Quebecers driving to Ontario to buy their weed.

No. There are cannabis dealers everywhere. No one will go to Ontario, and teenagers will continue to smoke.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

It's more like '' le Montréal urbain vs les régions '' the moment you step outside of the central core of the GMA, people become more conservative. Like in the US.

I think it depends on the issue. Perhaps you're right in terms of marijuana but on stuff like socio-economic equality, women's rights, gay rights, etc. there isn't much difference between Montreal and "the regions".

Recent polls even showed what I've been saying for a long time: that Montrealers aren't the paragons of pro-immigration views, and people in some regions like Quebec City even want more immigrants than Montrealers do. Not sure how you correlate this with the election results but anyway... my sense is that those Montrealers who are not immigrants themselves (and even some who are) don't have views about diversity, etc. that are significantly different from those of other Quebecers in the regions. Certainly francophone Montrealers do not, and they're by far the largest group in the city.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Other than a potential NAFTA "bump" for the Liberals in the coming month, I don't see much on the immediate horizon to generate big shifts in public opinion. Moving into 2019, of course, the implementation of carbon pricing, the next stage of the TransMountain process, and (I think) potential clashes with the new Quebec government could have unpredictable effects on public opinion heading in to the 2019 election.

Agreed. Will be an interesting year ahead.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Nanos poll just released showing that results wouldn't be too much different than the last election in 2014:

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploa...8-09-28-FR.pdf

I've sorta had that feeling, glad it is sorta validated by this. I would vote for Trudeau again. All things considered, he's done a pretty good job trying to maintain the stability of the country in the face of Horgan's divisiveness and obstructionism. Just hope all the young voters aren't too busy gettin stoned to vote!

That said, Scheer just rubs me the wrong way, plus he looks like Harper's cousin. As a gay man I just couldn't vote against my own self interest like that, with another Alliance member at the helm of the PCs. I'd consider voting for Jagmeet Singh if the NDP had a decent chance, and if he wasn't vehemently against economic development. So yeah, Trudeau is really the only option for me.


As far as prediction... I'd say ~150 for the Liberals, ~130 for the conservatives, 50 for the NDP, 5 for the Bloc, and 1 Green, with Bernier's nonsense biting the dust once and for all

All in all, a healthy minority government.

[TorontoDrew]

Could you imagine if we didn't have 2 major left of center parties at the federal but 1. The conservatives might never win again. They must love the fact we have the NDP.