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  #2201  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 12:58 AM
BonoboZilla BonoboZilla is offline
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I'm enjoying reading all your comments on Amazon a lot. So many strong opinions and pretty solid arguments, especially ones pointing out how the writers seem to be using pretty horrible logic.

Personally, I have no clue what they might choose, because as you all point out, it seems like logic would not have Maryland, NoVA or DC in the top 20, but here we are with them being the clear front runners according to the media and betting sites. I hope they are wrong, but I guess I'll just keep being patient since I have no idea what might happen.
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  #2202  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 1:03 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Just some random data for the 19 US sites selected for Amazon. This is the number of software/web developers and computer programmers according to the BLS (OES dataset) for mid 2017. Some of the DC and NYC stuff were weird since there's multiple areas for both. Needless to say, the entire NYC area is #1 regardless in pure numbers and DC is #2. However, I did metro divisions for some of these.. Also Boston's data is incomplete so it's not listed, BUT using 2016 data we can estimate that it could anywhere from 2nd to 4th. Higher than Chicago by probably around 10,000 people and around the same as the DC Metro Division and Los Angeles MSA

1. NYC Metro Division: 97,420 people
2. Los Angeles MSA: 67,670 people
3. DC Metro Division: 61,390 people
4. Chicago: 52,140 people
5. Dallas MSA: 51,390 people
6. Atlanta MSA: 42,510 people
7. Philadelphia MSA: 38,140 people
8. Denver MSA: 29,000 people
9. Austin, TX MSA: 25,770 people
10. Miami MSA: 19,370 people
11. Newark, NJ Metro Division: 17,970 people
12. Columbus, OH MSA: 15,920 people
13. Pittsburgh MSA: 13,150 people
14. Raleigh MSA: 12,970 people
15. Silver Spring/Frederick/Rockville MD Metro Division: 11,100 people
16. Indianapolis MSA: 10,920 people
17. Nashville MSA: 7900 people
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  #2203  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 1:20 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BonoboZilla View Post
I'm enjoying reading all your comments on Amazon a lot. So many strong opinions and pretty solid arguments, especially ones pointing out how the writers seem to be using pretty horrible logic.

Personally, I have no clue what they might choose, because as you all point out, it seems like logic would not have Maryland, NoVA or DC in the top 20, but here we are with them being the clear front runners according to the media and betting sites. I hope they are wrong, but I guess I'll just keep being patient since I have no idea what might happen.
Nobody knows what's going to happen, except maybe the people at Amazon (and any consultants) who are privy to most of the details of this. I'd imagine that most employees of Amazon have been in the dark about this. A few months after HQ2 was announced, I asked my friend who was a manager there at the time where he thought it would go, and half of the places he mentioned didn't even make the top 20 (i.e. Houston).

The issue of the journalist really goes on peoples' misconceptions about the tech industry itself. So many different roles out there to support a large company making software of any kind as we've discussed.

Talent is also something that's kind of hard to truly measure. Many software developers are pretty full of themselves in reality about their abilities and a lot of people who don't really work in the industry just kind of buy into the hype blindly for a few geographical areas. There are a lot of talented engineers in the Bay Area, but it's basically like how people assume they're great actors once they get an LA address or a great chef once they get a NYC address.

The majority of software developers are doing work that's not necessarily hard to make functional (from the standpoint of actually knowing how to develop that is). Unfortunately - a lot of people mistake being able to make something functional with it being an actual good solution. It would be like thinking that everyone who can architect a 5 story building so someone can erect it is automatically a great and really talented architect. There's a million ways to create various parts of software - just because something works doesn't mean it's actually a good solution. A lot of software out there really isn't coded very well (some is, a lot isn't). It's kind of complicated to explain, but I'll just say that getting something to work doesn't mean you are good at what you're doing in terms of software development.

So with that being said, I think a lot of people who aren't in the industry relate something like the ability to get funding too much to true tech talent. Most of the stuff out there isn't really that hard to create. Like the average Facebook engineer isn't really doing anything groundbreaking on average that requires a degree from MIT or anything. There is some stuff like that at all of these companies, but truly it's only a very small percentage of people who actually designed and implemented it.

So I really find it funny how some of these articles try and rank talent. I honestly have no idea how they even do that. Just because an area has a bunch of startups doesn't mean that the average talent level is greater than a place with less startups and VC funding. It's really weird to me, personally, that they even have rankings for this thing alone. It's not something that you can really easily rank because it's just hard to rank, and also a bit subjective (i.e. I may have different parameters for thinking someone is talented versus somebody sitting right next to me).


Also, this blog post is hilarious but also pretty true:
https://www.stilldrinking.org/programming-sucks

Something like this is pretty damn true
Quote:
Remember that stuff about crazy people and bad code? The internet is that except it’s literally a billion times worse. Websites that are glorified shopping carts with maybe three dynamic pages are maintained by teams of people around the clock, because the truth is everything is breaking all the time, everywhere, for everyone. Right now someone who works for Facebook is getting tens of thousands of error messages and frantically trying to find the problem before the whole charade collapses.
Also very true:
Quote:
All programming teams are constructed by and of crazy people
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  #2204  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 1:23 AM
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I could see them splitting it between Newark and Chicago.

As far as sites here I'd expect LY to still be favored but they are checking out the only other comparable option.

I have stated this too but it does not be in that particular order. But as far as the best clear site walking distance to the trains and DT its the 78 hands down....

Nope the 78 is the best option for Amazon by far IMO. Best transit access with improvements idealized. The 78 really is not that far from both the major Metro Stations.

One would also see an enormous amount of dedicated river taxis that can move thousands quickly. Its not that far and they could even have their own dedicated harbor to do it.

And screw river ice. The Ice Breakers would stop for nothing to keep the lanes open, in addition to the amount of river taxis. There would not be one month in the year or week the lanes would be not clear. Unless someone has not taken the water Taxi to Chinatown no one could even imagine the open space there. Its huge and buildings to the east closer to the lake keep going up. The south loop will not have the stigma it used to have even 10 years ago regardless if Amazon chooses that site or not. It is so close and prime its amazing it has been weed fields as long as it has been. We have all been to the top of the Sears tower and looked aghast at empty land so close to DT.

Or any picture looking north and at the Sears through the wheat fields. Chicago is really weird when it comes to the south loop. Its going to pop like the west loop someday and be much taller irregardless of Amazon. I mean really look at how close that property is to DT and the rail stations. Its almost insane that nothing is there, and I mean really.

We all know of the disaster that is Dearborn Park and hope it never happens again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7Ftpl55DBk

This is our chance to extend the skyline south and all the way to Hyde Park if we do it right.


I could even see them splitting it 3-4 ways and all of this second HQ2 headquarters was a bunch of shit until they realized it might be better to spread it around. [ they may have had a difficult decision between 3 and say screw it 15000 jobs at each site and lets spread it around and have enough influence in 3 states [ vs throwing all of their eggs in one basket ] "You get a car, and you get a car, and you get a car!!!"



It might be too difficult to choose just one location that why maybe we are 17 months into this thingy and still pretty much radio silence other an some metros getting revisits.

But I am less worried now than I was in the past when Rahm is stepping away from running again. He clearly would have been re-elected no problem on the first ballot and if it came to the second he would clean it up easily. He has all of the pro business people behind him. No one could have stopped him from being re-elected.




I personally believe he is going to make a financial killing on some part of Chicago Amazon something. He needs Real money and this is his easiest path to so do.

So I would expect him to press the flesh of the local and state government and the business community and make it an easy transition to get some of it, or hell all of it, in Chicago and make buco bucks doing so. $$$
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  #2205  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 1:38 AM
SIGSEGV SIGSEGV is offline
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Amazon should go to the 78, they can build their entire impact on the city entirely on that site, where else can you say that's true? They could literally build offices for 50,000 and 50,000 new apartments and it could basically be self contained.
Hell we can rename the neighborhood to Amazonas and it'll be a less shitty name.
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  #2206  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 2:08 AM
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Hell we can rename the neighborhood to Amazonas and it'll be a less shitty name.
BTW the name the 78 is not set in stone and is flexible.


Its easy to look up and google.
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  #2207  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 3:22 AM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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From September but a good read from US News and World Report:

Why tech companies choose Chicago

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...oosing-chicago
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  #2208  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 6:07 PM
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I'm wondering how the current Chicago mayoral will impact Amazon's approach to the city. It appears to me that most of those running have no clue how to fix anything other than kick the can further down the road. With Rahm gone I put our chances at a big ole fucking goose egg...

Who knows who they'll pick, but it isn't our shitshow of a city. If we were stable I'd say we'd be the frontrunner, but we are on the verge of complete collapse
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  #2209  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 6:39 PM
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Rahm's departure definitely did not help our chances. He really is the only person that focused on trying to fix the systemic budget issues this city has.

Most other candidates keep preaching about how they plan on spending even more money on social programs, without providing any clues on how to pay for them, let alone help close the current budget gap the city faces.
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  #2210  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 9:38 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bnk View Post
BTW the name the 78 is not set in stone and is flexible.


Its easy to look up and google.
We can just call it "the Amazon"...
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  #2211  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
We can just call it "the Amazon"...
There's even a river there ...
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  #2212  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 10:46 PM
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emathias emathias is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kumdogmillionaire View Post
I'm wondering how the current Chicago mayoral will impact Amazon's approach to the city. It appears to me that most of those running have no clue how to fix anything other than kick the can further down the road. With Rahm gone I put our chances at a big ole fucking goose egg...

Who knows who they'll pick, but it isn't our shitshow of a city. If we were stable I'd say we'd be the frontrunner, but we are on the verge of complete collapse
Realistically, what happens if they're is a "complete collapse"? Detroit is still Detroit. Businesses have still been moving into their downtown. I'm a long way from a Detroit booster, but realistically, what would even the worst likely case do to hurt businesses?
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  #2213  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 11:17 PM
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BonoboZill4 BonoboZill4 is offline
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Here is a decent article that uses relative layman's terminology to explain what could, might and has happened in the past with municipal bankruptcies.

https://www.bankrate.com/finance/eco...kruptcy-1.aspx

A couple other related pieces:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/...should-i-flee/

https://www.npr.org/2012/07/11/15662...res-bankruptcy


The most important problem is a city losing its ability to borrow in the same capacity as it once had. Second to that(in my opinion) is losing city services or having them cut to third world levels. Basically, this would be the very reason Amazon wouldn't commit, as they wouldn't want to attempt to convince people to move into a city that had a long road to recovery, potentially even higher taxes, and horrible services.

This is all hypothetical though as every city is different and each bankruptcy negotiation has its own variables, nuances, and intricacies that can't be explained on a simple post. People write their dissertations on this kind of stuff! Finally something about the Amazon proposal I can discuss
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  #2214  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:11 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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One of the op-eds published in Crains a little after Rahm announced he wasn't seeking re-election convinced me that it'll still be alright. As long as city hall supports it and also supports growth in tech business and education. One of their points in it was also that Rahm is not the entire delegation trying to bring HQ2 to Chicago. There are many other people involved who aren't going anywhere anytime soon - many in high positions of business and others in government type of positions that may not go anywhere even with a change of the guard. And of course, any company that is going to puts its roots down for so long is going to have to withstand many different mayors over decades. Amazon will be there for whichever city after a handful of different mayors.

We'll see though..I think he's a factor, but not the end of the world, but that depends on how business friendly the next mayor is IMO.

Last edited by marothisu; Yesterday at 10:19 PM.
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  #2215  
Old Posted Today, 1:33 AM
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If Amazon does choose Chicago, I wonder who they prefer between Rauner and Pritzker. If they announce before the election, it could help Rauner.
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  #2216  
Old Posted Today, 2:09 AM
VKChaz VKChaz is offline
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Originally Posted by BonoboZilla View Post
...

Personally, I have no clue what they might choose, because as you all point out, it seems like logic would not have Maryland, NoVA or DC in the top 20, but here we are with them being the clear front runners according to the media and betting sites. I hope they are wrong, but I guess I'll just keep being patient since I have no idea what might happen.
The DC area is filled with government contractors. And the government is a sizable part of Amazon's business. To work with various departments, Amazon may see value to having more workers close by. I don't know that it would drive a 50K person location decision, but I could see value that goes beyond the lobbyist presence often mentioned.
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  #2217  
Old Posted Today, 3:58 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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The DC area is filled with government contractors. And the government is a sizable part of Amazon's business. To work with various departments, Amazon may see value to having more workers close by. I don't know that it would drive a 50K person location decision, but I could see value that goes beyond the lobbyist presence often mentioned.
There are many companies that do a lot of government business. They have offices, sizable, in DC but you don't see them moving a huge part of their operations there because of it. It will really depend on what HQ2 is going to house at the end of the day. I don't see this being a big factor, but you never know.
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