Who will replace Harper?

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm surprised to see the abandoned electoral reform promise having such an impact.

If I recall from the last election, it was a promise the Liberals hardly talked about. The last election was more of an anti-Harper slugfest with oodles of strategic voting going on. Electoral reform wasn't even on the radar (at least around here).

We didn't talk about it much, but electoral reform was huge for a large number of Liberal voters. To me personally, it was the biggest issue after their stimulus spending. The party may not have made a big deal of that promise, but a lot of the voters dd.

Originally Posted by JHikka

2015 essentially returned them to the wilderness. 44 seats total, 16 in QC and 14 in BC. Single digits everywhere else. Their strongholds in Atlantic Canada were swept. It's possible they regain some of those old seats back but it's also possible they don't. Like you said: too early at this stage.

The most worrying potential NDP leader for the other parties is probably Jarmeet Singh...if he ever committed to running. He has the potential to cut sharply into ethnic and youth votes as well as GTA votes if he's strategic and smart enough.

Wasn't this the 2nd best result in NDP history? I know it takes them out of the perception of equal status along with the Liberals and NDP, but it's still not total irrelevance. That'll come in 2019 I think.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Wasn't this the 2nd best result in NDP history? I know it takes them out of the perception of equal status along with the Liberals and NDP, but it's still not total irrelevance. That'll come in 2019 I think.

In terms of Seat % it was their third best after 2011 and 1988. In terms of vote % it was their fourth best after 2011, 1988, and 1980. I think they're fortunate to still be standing where they are and agree that 2019 will just push them further down the ladder.

[BretttheRiderFan]

I think the idea that a Sikh leader suddenly gives the NDP inroads in ethnic communities is a pretty antiquated analysis that undermines how sophisticated these voters are. Especially in the 905, the NDP is light years behind the other two parties in terms of outreach and hasn't tended to resonate with these middle class or upwardly mobile immigrants.

[1overcosc]

^ Putting his race aside, Jagmeet Singh is a very captivating guy. When he first won his seat in the Ontario legislature in 2011, it was in an area of the province that had never voted NDP before.. the sort of place that you'd never expect. His win was quite possibly the biggest shock of that election.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by JHikka

2015 essentially returned them to the wilderness. 44 seats total, 16 in QC and 14 in BC. Single digits everywhere else. Their strongholds in Atlantic Canada were swept. It's possible they regain some of those old seats back but it's also possible they don't. Like you said: too early at this stage.

2015 did NOT return them at all to pre-2011 levels (basically, zero seats, zero votes) here. In the 2015 election, the NDP being still alive actually caused lots of three- and four-way races.

The most worrying potential NDP leader for the other parties is probably Jarmeet Singh...if he ever committed to running. He has the potential to cut sharply into ethnic and youth votes as well as GTA votes if he's strategic and smart enough.

Actually, "worrying for other parties" is not something we can say in this general way, at all, because "other parties" don't all have the same interests.

A NDP leader that fall flat (i.e. brings the NDP back to pre-2011 levels) in Quebec is "worrying" for the LPC, because they don't win seats, except for some island strongholds, if the anti-Liberal vote stops being split.

A NDP leader that does decently well, now that is worrying for the Bloc and it probably means the CPC, regardless of who they pick as leader, won't make big gains.

A NDP leader that sweeps Quebec like Layton did... well, that's not actually "worrying" for the LPC/CPC given that they're both impacted in roughly parallel ways, but it almost certainly simply means they will have a minority govt (unless one of the two crumbles, like we saw in 2011).

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by lio45

2015 did NOT return them at all to pre-2011 levels (basically, zero seats, zero votes) here. In the 2015 election, the NDP being still alive actually caused lots of three- and four-way races.

Zero seats and zero votes? Under Layton the NDP moved between 19 and 37 seats and floated between 2M and 2.5M votes. Under Broadbent in the 1980s they floated between 20 and 43 seats and again between 2M and 2.5M votes. They were usually capturing between 15% and 20% of the national vote. These numbers aren't insignificant. 2015 turned them back towards the route of being a lesser-influencing third/fourth party and back towards their usual performance. If anything 2019 is projected to return them further to that position given the fact that they currently have nobody officially interested in becoming their leader after their parted Red Sea of a convention last year. They have to do some sincere soul-searching before they even run an election campaign in a year and a half.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Zero seats and zero votes? Under Layton the NDP moved between 19 and 37 seats and floated between 2M and 2.5M votes. Under Broadbent in the 1980s they floated between 20 and 43 seats and again between 2M and 2.5M votes. They were usually capturing between 15% and 20% of the national vote.

You missed a word: "here".

If the NDP goes back to irrelevance, then it means lots of seats will be up for grabs in the second most vote-rich province. These seats will be orphans and probably ready to vote for anyone (except maybe the Federal Liberals, which seem to have a solid cap in MOQ, even though that doesn't prevent them from being competitive when the races are four-way). This could have a pretty big impact on the next election.

Someone like Mulcair, on the other hand, could definitely have grabbed a good chunk of the available ridings in Quebec in 2019.

I don't think there's another area of the country comparable to post-Layton Quebec federally in terms of political orphanity (and therefore, fickleness).

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

^ Putting his race aside, Jagmeet Singh is a very captivating guy. When he first won his seat in the Ontario legislature in 2011, it was in an area of the province that had never voted NDP before.. the sort of place that you'd never expect. His win was quite possibly the biggest shock of that election.

Singh had run federally that year in the same riding. He narrowly lost the election by hundreds of votes and improved the NDPs numbers by like 25 percentage points. That year he did far better than any other NDP candidate in that region both federally and provincially.

I'm not overly familiar with the region but I think under Singh's leadership the NDP will likely make inroads in the 905. In 2014, the NDP improved in the ridings that neighbour his and since then his profile has grown a lot.

Singh was supposedly given the the Deputy Leader's post by Horwath to stop him from running in the last federal election. I'm surprised there hasn't been mention of her stepping down and him running for provincial leader, which may be a more appealing option for him. While she seems to remain popular she's been struggling to make any inroads. The NDPs support increased in 2011 - like it did throughout the country - and in subsequent by-elections prior to 2014. However, in the 2014 election they didn't make any further gains. Despite a big drop in support for the left-leaning Wynne and her Liberals, it's the PCs who have made gains and not the NDP.

All this is a bit off topic.

[BretttheRiderFan]

There is definitely potential in Ontario under the right NDP leader. Somebody like Singh could completely shake up the landscape IMO. Given how deep in the toilet the Liberals are destined to be under Wynne, there's a big chunk of people wanting somebody to vote for.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

There is definitely potential in Ontario under the right NDP leader. Somebody like Singh could completely shake up the landscape IMO. Given how deep in the toilet the Liberals are destined to be under Wynne, there's a big chunk of people wanting somebody to vote for.

I'm pretty sure that Singh would be seen as a viable alternative as Ontario NDP leader. But I'm not sure if Andrea Horwath will step down.

Some people are writing off Kathleen Wynne but I wouldn't go that far. Wynne is an amazingly good campaigner and PC leader Patrick Brown has been ridiculously weak so far. The Liberals will lose seats but how many will they actually lose? And I will add that we can't assume the Trudeau will win the next federal election.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by JHikka

308's aggregate polling has the PCs leading Northern Ontario by a wide margin:

That is definitely wrong. Look at the history of voting in Northern Ontario. But some of the polling companies will include heavily conservative areas of central Ontario as part of Northern Ontario which skews the data.

[Rollerstud98]

Historic voting doesn't matter anymore. Look at Alberta.

[BretttheRiderFan]

If you knew what to look for, there were clues even about the last AB election in historic voting patterns.

[GlassCity]

Finally found the time to talk about the Halifax debate. Anyone else watch it?

Deepak Obhrai read around half of his answers off of a card. For an English debate. I really hope he's just doing this run for publicity, but it costs a lot of money to run. So why?? I just feel bad for him.

Anyway, it was another pretty boring debate, with no meaningful differences among the candidates, aside from the Bernier supply management thing and the Chong carbon tax.

Of course, the highlight was O'Leary. He was just dumped on by the rest of the candidates, mostly with comments of the "just visiting" variety. I have to wonder though: could this backfire? Giving him extra attention could work the same way it did to Trump in the Republican primaries. Will be interesting to see what happens as the race progresses, and especially once people finally start dropping out. Hopefully some more regular polling will start to happen too.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

That is definitely wrong. Look at the history of voting in Northern Ontario. But some of the polling companies will include heavily conservative areas of central Ontario as part of Northern Ontario which skews the data.

This is true, as some polling companies use area codes to divide the province. Hence the entire 705 area code is placed in Northern Ontario.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Some people are writing off Kathleen Wynne but I wouldn't go that far. Wynne is an amazingly good campaigner and PC leader Patrick Brown has been ridiculously weak so far. The Liberals will lose seats but how many will they actually lose? And I will add that we can't assume the Trudeau will win the next federal election.

True, but people may be fed up enough with the Liberals to overlook a lot. He may get the "Brian Pallister" treatment.

[BretttheRiderFan]

I'm still shocked at how poor Obhrai's English is after living in Canada for 40 years. He's the dean of the Tory caucus for crying out loud.

[BretttheRiderFan]

It's honestly next to impossible to adequately poll a leadership race like this where all ridings are equal, there's a ranked ballot, and the actual electorate is such a small subset of the population. I'd take any numbers with a huge grain of salt as the general Canadian population and even general Conservative supporters are not necessarily reflective of the Conservative members who will be voting. There will be some ridings in this race with literally dozens of actual voters. Unless we're on the ground in every riding and know the people who will be voting it's a rather irrelevant exercise.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

It's honestly next to impossible to adequately poll a leadership race like this where all ridings are equal, there's a ranked ballot, and the actual electorate is such a small subset of the population. I'd take any numbers with a huge grain of salt as the general Canadian population and even general Conservative supporters are not necessarily reflective of the Conservative members who will be voting. There will be some ridings in this race with literally dozens of actual voters. Unless we're on the ground in every riding and know the people who will be voting it's a rather irrelevant exercise.

That's true, the riding thing makes it difficult. But still, there is a list of registered Conservatives, you could just poll them. Even if not reflective of the end results, it would still be interesting to see who's popular.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Loco101

That is definitely wrong. Look at the history of voting in Northern Ontario. But some of the polling companies will include heavily conservative areas of central Ontario as part of Northern Ontario which skews the data.

Look at the recent voting history of Alberta provincially and Quebec federally.