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  #1741  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:25 PM
skyscraperpage17 skyscraperpage17 is offline
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Originally Posted by CIA View Post
Could Detroit attract and maintain up to 50,000 Amazon employees? A number that would be challenging for most metros. I guess we'll never know for sure.
I do think it could.

Seattle, which is smaller, has been able to. Detroit also has a lot of underutilized infrastructure for a metro its size.

Back when Detroit was booming in the 1940s and 1950s, a ton of infrastructure was overbuilt in anticipation of growth that never happened.
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  #1742  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
1. No tech company on the planet has had nonstop sustained growth
As noted before, this is a straw man. Nobody is assuming they need "nonstop" growth, they just need enough growth to get to another 50K employees.

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2. No major company on the planet has true "dual, equal HQ"
That is not true. DowDupont has dual HQ's in Midland, MI and Wilmington, DE. There are others as well.

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3. There is no logistical way to set up a "HQ" within months without having a predetermined winner
This made no sense at all. If it takes a year to get the beginnings of a 2nd HQ up and running, it makes no difference if they started in September of last year or September of this year. When you're planning on a 10, 20 or 30-year time horizon, a year is no big deal.

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4. The disruptive nature of tech makes long-term predictions useless
This is true, but first of all, Amazon is as much a retailer as a tech company anyway, so I hope you aren't predicting people will stop buying things altogether. Second, it would appear there is a long-term trend of people buying more stuff online and less in traditional stores, so clearly Amazon is banking on that, which appears to be a reasonably safe bet. The only question is whether or not Amazon will be able to continue to capture the same amount of growth of online purchasing that they've been capturing to date.

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5. Amazon has been clear that it wants to grow in Seattle, not elsewhere
You really just made that up, didn't you. Nothing could be farther from the truth. If it were true, not only would Seattle have made the top 20 tlist, but Amazon wouldn't be going through all this effort to solicit bids for another HQ in the first place.
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  #1743  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:29 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Your personal anecdote on who you believe has no problem moving somewhere is irrelevant, you claimed it couldn't attract talent which implies it doesn't have it. Both false, both wrong. Move on now. https://detroit.curbed.com/2017/8/4/...lenial-detroit
When it comes to selection of HQ2, the one thing I fully agree with you is that my opinion - like yours - doesn't matter to Amazon. They have released a short list and Detroit isn't on it. Care to speculate as to the reason why? If not, let's move on.
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  #1744  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:29 PM
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20 is ridiculousness, 5-6 max. Three are all that are needed at this point.

Kind of suspired so many are on the east coast, or at least time zone. NYC, Toronto, LA, Boston,DC are more costly. They don't make sense from what Amazon was originally asking for. And I find it hard to belive that Amazon will pick NC lacking a global airport. Miami makes no sense to me. I still Think Canada is a non starter and Columbus too small.

Iteresting to note there are only 3 cities in the Central Time zone, Chicago and two in Texas, so really there are only two possible locations in the Central Time Zone.
Very Eastern leaning list. Oh I forgot Nashville is in the central time zone, not sure what they can deliver on other than cheap housing.

How in the hell did Indianapolis make the list. Now we got to hear from the entire state of Indiana for the next 6 months before they start the next round at 10 cities.





IMO the real ones are the DC area, Phli, Atlanta, one of the Texas cities more likely Dallas and Chicago. So that's the real top 5.



For those that haven't read the RFP yet


https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon....candidates.jpg
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Last edited by bnk; Jan 18, 2018 at 4:56 PM. Reason: Already posted a map of 20 finalists, easier to read than the one you used
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  #1745  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:30 PM
skyscraperpage17 skyscraperpage17 is offline
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
That is not true. DowDupont has dual HQ's in Midland, MI and Wilmington, DE. There are others as well.
Yes, for now. But they did just complete a merger too. It could change once they've sorted through all of the redundancies.
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  #1746  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:32 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Of course they know. This whole dog-and-pony show is a joke.

And it isn't a second HQ; it's a bargaining chip for Seattle expansion, and just another big office that they need anyways.

Has anyone ever been involved in major lease negotiations? A standard office lease can take six months or more. The idea that they're gonna pick some random town and magically add 50k employees is absurd fantasy. They probably couldn't do that in 30 years.
Lol so you are saying it's definitely Chicago then since it's public knowledge that Amazon officials have been in town and seen at one of the proposed sites. Since this is all just a show and they've already got it picked, it must be Chicago since they have been actively scouting space here.

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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post
except for the fact that the big companies of today are rarely the big companies of tomorrow. i think it would actually be shocking if Google/Facebook/Amazon are still the dominant players in 10-15 years that they are today.
Yes, but Amazon is still very much on the upward trajectory in terms of market share and continues to expand horizontally into other industries. Also, let's be real about numbers here. IBM, for example, at it's peak had 450,000 employees, Wal Mart has 2.1 million employees with 1.4 in the US. Amazon is some sort of freakish lovechild of IBM and WalMart. Point being saying Amazon isn't going to have enough steam to add another 50,000 employees is absurd because that number is a drop in the bucket when you consider just how huge corporations in similar situations get.

Also, today's growth story isn't usually tomorrow's, but these bug corporations often are persistently dominant for decades (see Wal Mart) or even a century+ (IBM).
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  #1747  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CIA View Post
When it comes to selection of HQ2, the one thing I fully agree with you is that my opinion - like yours - doesn't matter to Amazon. They have released a short list and Detroit isn't on it. Care to speculate as to the reason why? If not, let's move on.
I don't give two shits, I addressed you dumb opinion and showed why it's wrong, all that matters. Detroit region attracts talent, HQ2 or not. Don't make comments on a place you know nothing about, it's not hard.
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  #1748  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:41 PM
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Opinion: Detroit never had a chance at landing HQ2. Your posts did nothing to change my opinion. Thanks for playing.
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  #1749  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:43 PM
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I'm so sick of talking about Detroit and HQ2. I hope further discussions are moved to a new thread on Detroit's economic vitality.
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  #1750  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:44 PM
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
20 is ridiculousness, 5-6 max. Three are all that are needed at this point.

Kind of suspired so many are on the east coast, or at least time zone. NYC, Toronto, LA, Boston,DC are more costly.
I am surprised to see Los Angeles on it. I would guess that it's a really long shot. The housing crisis in LA is enough to make Amazon consider other locations.
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  #1751  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:46 PM
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I don't think the short list necessarily suggests that Washington, D.C. is the frontrunner. I think Washington D.C. is unique from the other cities in that it cannot be as easily disjoined from its suburbs. In my opinion, I believe that Amazon is looking at four classes of cities; rising tech, rising sunbelt, rising midwest and established.

Rising Tech Cities
1. Austin
2. Pittsburgh
3. Denver

Rising Sunbelt Cities
1. Atlanta
2. Dallas
3. Raleigh

Rising Midwest Cities
1. Columbus
2. Indianapolis
3. Nashville

Established Cities
1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Toronto
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  #1752  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
I am surprised to see Los Angeles on it. I would guess that it's a really long shot. The housing crisis in LA is enough to make Amazon consider other locations.
Agreed. I feel like LA was chosen to balance out the east coast dominance.
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  #1753  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:48 PM
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Originally Posted by UPChicago View Post
I don't think the short list necessarily suggests that Washington, D.C. is the frontrunner. I think Washington D.C. is unique from the other cities in that it cannot be as easily disjoined from its suburbs. In my opinion, I believe that Amazon is looking at four classes of cities; rising tech, rising sunbelt, rising midwest and established.

Rising Tech Cities
1. Austin
2. Pittsburgh
3. Denver

Rising Sunbelt Cities
1. Atlanta
2. Dallas
3. Raleigh

Rising Midwest Cities
1. Columbus
2. Indianapolis
3. Nashville

Established Cities
1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Toronto
Nashville isn't in the Midwest.
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  #1754  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CIA View Post
I'm so sick of talking about Detroit and HQ2. I hope further discussions are moved to a new thread on Detroit's economic vitality.
And yet you continue... hope you had fun!
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  #1755  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:52 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
Nashville isn't in the Midwest.
And Austin is the Sun Belt.
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  #1756  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:53 PM
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Keeping 20 cities in the initial cut surprises me.

Sure, they had 200 submissions, but anyone who read the RFP could (and many in the media did) quickly eliminate all except for about 20 or fewer cities.

The whole process seems contrived and postured. Are they really considering 20 cities? Or it is a combination of a "PR game" (oooh, so many WONDERFUL cities to chose from, we LOVE you all) and a "stalking horse" strategy to pressure the "real" 2 or 3 cities on which they've focused their interest.

If you are at Amazon with responsibility for this project, read your own damn RFP, know the corporate culture, know what's most important for Amazon, and know what your marching orders are from Bezos, then you are a complete idiot if you can't quickly get your choices down to 3-5 cities.

I suspect that's been done, and this is all a big drama queen show by Bezos and Amazon to solicit ever more groveling (and positive publicity about the glories of Amazon) from all of the candidates before they get down to business with a very small number of serious targets.

Also: it wouldn't' surprise me if Amazon said, after all the proposals, that "we've changed our mind", we've decided to split Hq2 between 2 or 3 cities. This actually makes more sense in my view - putting that many jobs and investments in a single city (unless it's Chicago, NY or LA), will just drive up your own costs and re-create the problem that caused Amazon to look beyond Seattle in the first instance.
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  #1757  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:57 PM
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How much of an impact will HQ2 have on the region? Let's say Newark is selected. NYC will also greatly benefit and vice versa. The same is especially true with DC, Northern Virginia, and Montgomery County, Maryland.

But let's say Philly is selected. Would DC or NYC see some benefit or is Philly too far away from their metro areas. There are folks that telecommute a portion of the time and only have to make the trip to the office once or twice a week. Someone could take a job in Philly and conceivably live in DC, especially if the work schedule is flexible enough.

50,000 direct employees, plus any other businesses that spurt up due to the economic multiplier effect. It's going to be a major impact for the region I would think.
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  #1758  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 4:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CIA View Post
Agreed. I feel like LA was chosen to balance out the east coast dominance.
Watch us win.
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  #1759  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 5:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Car(e)-Free LA View Post
Watch us win.
I would not be surprised if it were to happen. Ok, maybe a little.
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  #1760  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2018, 5:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
Raleigh, or the greater 'Triangle' region is not surprising given all of the colleges and the Research Triangle Park there.
This is one of the reasons Indianapolis stuck our for me. I'm not aware of its heavy research or education attributes.
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