Queen's Park Politics

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Docere

"Vote-buying" = policies you disagree with?

Major policies introduced in the last year of a government are usually vote-buying, whether they be tax cuts or spending-related.

If the Liberal government was so committed to OHIP+, why not implement it at the beginning of their mandate?

I disagree that OHIP+ had to overtake private plans. Why not just target people under 25 who didn't have coverage instead of taking on everyone? Seems like a waste to me. I suspect the dental plan will end up the same way, hence my opposition.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by wave46

Major policies introduced in the last year of a government are usually vote-buying, whether they be tax cuts or spending-related.

If the Liberal government was so committed to OHIP+, why not implement it at the beginning of their mandate?

I disagree that OHIP+ had to overtake private plans. Why not just target people under 25 who didn't have coverage instead of taking on everyone? Seems like a waste to me. I suspect the dental plan will end up the same way, hence my opposition.

It's a lot more efficient for drugs to be paid for centrally through universal care than through private insurance. Simply extending OHIP to include all drugs for all ages, completely eliminating private drug insurance, would save money in the end (more specifically: it would replace a large bill paid for by individuals and corporations with a smaller bill paid for by the government) because of the efficiency of bulk buying power and centralized management. Universal health care itself is economically viable because of this effect and it's even more so in the case of drugs.

It's also a very effective corporate tax cut, essentially, as it directly reduces the cost of labour for private businesses.

[Docere]

Latest Ipsos poll:

PCs 40%
NDP 35%
Liberals 22%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/o...als-anti-ford/

NDP leads in Toronto, SW Ontario and the North.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It's a lot more efficient for drugs to be paid for centrally through universal care than through private insurance. Simply extending OHIP to include all drugs for all ages, completely eliminating private drug insurance, would save money in the end (more specifically: it would replace a large bill paid for by individuals and corporations with a smaller bill paid for by the government) because of the efficiency of bulk buying power and centralized management. Universal health care itself is economically viable because of this effect and it's even more so in the case of drugs.

It's also a very effective corporate tax cut, essentially, as it directly reduces the cost of labour for private businesses.

Also, there does seem to be an understanding among policy-makers of the need for some sort of pharmacare. That is reflected in Eric Hoskins jumping ship and going to work for that goal in Ottawa (and the way things are headed, it would have been a very lonely 4 years for Hoskins if he stuck around at Queen's Park).

[1overcosc]

CBC seat projector updated. New seat projection:
PC: 85 (-5)
NDP: 37 (+10)
Liberal: 2 (-5)

Liberals now down to just 2 seats. 1 in Eastern Ontario (definitely Ottawa-Vanier) and 1 in Toronto (St. Pauls?).

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Docere

Latest Ipsos poll:

PCs 40%
NDP 35%
Liberals 22%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/o...als-anti-ford/

NDP leads in Toronto, SW Ontario and the North.

PCs are slipping and the NDP are climbing.

We might see an NDP minority or majority government.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Like I predicted, the anti PC vote (Majority of Ontario voters lean left as do Canadians on the whole) is galvanizing behind the NDP now, too early to tell whether this will sustain itself but I think the NDP will win this election.

[1overcosc]

Whether or not the NDP can win depends on two key things:

1) How much more the Liberals can fall. Can the Liberals fall below the low-20s and into the teens to bleed even more support to the NDP? Where is their "floor", so to speak? The Macleans poll from last week suggested that the Liberal floor could be as low as 8%. If the Liberals can't drop enough to put the NDP in the lead it could make it a lot harder for the NDP to win, as it would mean having to either increase turnout or lure away PC voters, neither of which is particularly easy.

2) Surviving. Until a week ago nobody took the NDP seriously; not the media, not the Liberals, not the PCs, not really even the voting public. They didn't get nearly as much criticism or scrutiny from rival parties, from the media, or from the public as they would have gotten for this reason. Now they're everyone's main target and all the attention is on them, so we'll see how well they fight through this. So far I think the NDP are doing very well on this front; they deflected Liberal and PC attacks pretty skillfully in the past few days.

In the event of scenario 1) I wonder if a Liberal wipeout is possible. Swing models would probably show the Liberals at 0 seats if they bled into the teens, but in practice, there's a couple seats (like Ottawa-Vanier) that I don't think they can ever lose, even if they fell as low as 10%.

[ssiguy]

Bcasey25raptor............... I too have thought this from the beginning.

The huge swaths of anti-Ford voters were waiting to see which party they would galvanize around in order to stop Ford. If Horvath seemed to not be up to the task, the Tories would have easily swept to power as Wynne is universally disliked and the Liberals are tired and arrogant. At a minimum it would have split the vote allowing Ford to sweep the centre-right and many potential Liberals would have also just stayed home.

Horvath has however shown that she is up to the task and now the centre, centre-left voters have a likeable leader and a fresh face to rally around to stop Ford. Of course this wouldn't be a conversation if the Tories had choosen Elliot but if there is one thing the Tories have shown in Ontario, it's their uncanny ability of how to blow an election. This latest poll is even better than the numbers indicate as the NDP have presented their costed platform while the Tories haven't as the Brown's "People's Guarantee" has been discarded eventhough it was a vote winner as it came across as being a rather well thought out and reasonable document. Now Ford, with all his tax cuts, is going to have to explain to the public all the massive government spending cuts they are going to have to endure to pay for them.

Consider me on the record.............an NDP minority and my second prediction would be an NDP majority.

[Docere]

Ottawa-Vanier and St. Paul's would be the holdouts if the party gets "Kim Campbelled." St. Paul's could be to Ontario what River Heights is to Manitoba.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

PCs are slipping and the NDP are climbing.

We might see an NDP minority or majority government.

Certainly possible but there are a lot of ridings with PC - Liberal battles that voted Liberal last time but would probably go PC this time. York and Halton Regions come to mind, maybe Peel, and even some parts of Toronto. Even Ottawa could see PC gains. Look at electoral districts where the NDP weak is normally very weak and that's where the PCs have an advantage.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP wins the popular vote but doesn't win the election. For example, the NDP gets 37% of the votes and the PCs 35% but the PCs win more seats and possibly a slim majority due to an insane distribution of votes.

[1overcosc]

If the NDP really do climb into the high 30s then that means they've attracted entirely new groups of voters and the inefficiency of their vote goes away.

[Docere]

My advice to the Liberals: Stop pretending you're going to win the election, focus in on some salvagable seats so you're in a better position to rebuild after the election. And any attacks on Ford only help the NDP now.

[SteelTown]

Ford says he'll reduce gas prices by 10 cents per litre by cutting cap-and-trade, fuel tax
Moves would mean billions in lost revenue for Ontario's coffers

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...-tax-1.4665386

A Progressive Conservative government would reduce gas prices in Ontario by 10 cents per litre by scrapping the province's cap-and-trade program and reducing the provincial fuel tax, Doug Ford said on Wednesday.

Ford did not say, however, how a Tory government would make up for the billions in lost revenue that would result from those changes.

"Every day, I hear from the people who are fed up. Fed up with being gouged at the gas pump. Fed up with the price of gas keeps going up, and with, the price of goods and services, with no end or relief in sight," the PC leader said at a campaign stop in Oakville.

Ford also reiterated his vow to challenge the imposition of a carbon tax in Ontario.

According to a news release, the provincial fuel tax on gas and diesel — currently at 14.7 cents and 14.3 cents per litre, respectively — would be reduced to nine cents per litre for both.

Ontario's cap-and-trade program accounted for some $1.9 billion in revenue last year, while the fuel tax brings in $2.7 billion in revenue.

Ford is promising to scrap both, while also reducing government spending by at least $6 billion, reducing the tax rate in the province's second tax bracket, lowering the corporate tax rate and significantly cutting hydro bills for voters.

When pressed by reporters on how a PC government could afford the changes, Ford said that the money voters save on gas will increase economic activity.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Docere

My advice to the Liberals: Stop pretending you're going to win the election, focus in on some salvagable seats so you're in a better position to rebuild after the election. And any attacks on Ford only help the NDP now.

After what the Liberals have done, This is exactly what I want. It seems to happen to all the parties that f up. Then they come back and rebuild better.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

After what the Liberals have done, This is exactly what I want. It seems to happen to all the parties that f up. Then they come back and rebuild better.

...and then immediately f everything up again, yes.

[Acajack]

Any thoughts on this, amigos?

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...iberals-allege

(Runs for cover.)

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

If the NDP really do climb into the high 30s then that means they've attracted entirely new groups of voters and the inefficiency of their vote goes away.

Well Rae got a majority in 1990 with 38%. But they benefitted from vote-splits on the right. The Confederation of Regions and Family Coalition parties did well and took from the PCs and helped the NDP win some rural seats. The Liberals too weren't as explicitly "progressive" (Peterson engaged in some red-baiting against the NDP) and the Liberals were to some extent competing on the crowded right as well. This time nobody is going to be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP" and I doubt the Trillium Party will be much of a factor at all.

The 905 too wasn't as important as it is today - I don't think anybody really noticed its political power until Harris swept in '95. While the NDP does have a good shot in Brampton, it seems pretty obvious that the greater role 905 now plays represents a challenge to the NDP.

So this time the path to victory is a little different. It'll mean basically wiping out the Liberals and peeling off some anti-Liberals that were flirting with the PCs.

[haljackey]

From the Ontario Reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/com...sub_right_now/



I can relate...

[1overcosc]

Yeah the 1990 NDP majority was largely an FPTP accident. That said, even if there wasn't that discrepancy, the NDP probably still would have won a minority in 1990 as they did have 5 point popular vote lead.

The path to an NDP majority in 2018 is challenging, but basically involves:
-A near-sweep of the inner city of Toronto (basically everything other than St. Paul's)
-Some seats in Scarborough and North York but the NDP don't have to dominate here
-Winning most of the seats in Peel Region and holding onto their seats in Hamilton and Niagara (if they do that, they don't have to break into York or Durham which are very challenging regions for them)
-A near-complete sweep of the urban seats of the southwest, along with at least one rural or mixed urban-rural seat (Sarnia-Lambton is the best bet)
-A sweep of the North
-At least 3 seats in the East (Ottawa Centre, Kingston, and either Peterborough or Belleville)