Queen's Park Politics

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Ford says he'll reduce gas prices by 10 cents per litre by cutting cap-and-trade, fuel tax
Moves would mean billions in lost revenue for Ontario's coffers

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...-tax-1.4665386

Whinging and moaning about the price of things, and calling for the government to fix it, is not conservatism.

The clip the CBC played on the radio yesterday had Ford repeatedly calling it the "Liberal-NDP carbon tax." At one point, he almost forgot, and corrected himself to include the NDP.

The reality is, of course, that our federal government is requiring provinces to instate a carbon tax, or some other plan. Ford is campaigning on a fight against the feds, in which Ontario's only ally will be Saskatchewan.

As for the gas tax, it hasn't increased in nominal terms in 25 years. It should have been raised long ago. He's proposing to use public debt to reduce the burden on drivers at the pump. So much for fiscal stewardship.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Yeah the 1990 NDP majority was largely an FPTP accident. That said, even if there wasn't that discrepancy, the NDP probably still would have won a minority in 1990 as they did have 5 point popular vote lead.

The path to an NDP majority in 2018 is challenging, but basically involves:
-A near-sweep of the inner city of Toronto (basically everything other than St. Paul's)
-Some seats in Scarborough and North York but the NDP don't have to dominate here
-Winning most of the seats in Peel Region and holding onto their seats in Hamilton and Niagara (if they do that, they don't have to break into York or Durham which are very challenging regions for them)
-A near-complete sweep of the urban seats of the southwest, along with at least one rural or mixed urban-rural seat (Sarnia-Lambton is the best bet)
-A sweep of the North
-At least 3 seats in the East (Ottawa Centre, Kingston, and either Peterborough or Belleville)

Not sure of the other areas, but I have a feeling that except for Nipissing, most of the North will go NDP. I even think the Soo riding will go to NDP, I feel that was a protest vote.

The real question is: Does the NDP platform seem tantalizing enough for the GTA?

[1overcosc]

I think the NDP will have real traction in Inner Toronto and Peel, but will struggle elsewhere in the GTA. They will likely be shut out of York even if their provincewide polling puts them in majority territory. Same goes for suburban Ottawa.

A narrow NDP majority of around 65 seats could be possible without York, Durham (other than Oshawa), Halton, suburban Ottawa, and the rural south, but it would require the NDP doing very well pretty much everywhere else (which they could easily do if they reach 40% or higher in the polls).

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I think the NDP will have real traction in Inner Toronto and Peel, but will struggle elsewhere in the GTA. They will likely be shut out of York even if their provincewide polling puts them in majority territory. Same goes for suburban Ottawa.

A narrow NDP majority of around 65 seats could be possible without York, Durham (other than Oshawa), Halton, suburban Ottawa, and the rural south, but it would require the NDP doing very well pretty much everywhere else (which they could easily do if they reach 40% or higher in the polls).

I think of all Scarborough is potentially winnable for the NDP except Agincourt, but Ford has a base there and really throws a monkey wrench into "normal" voting patterns and the PCs I suspect are likely to end up on top in several seats there. As for Peel, Brampton/Malton are winnable, but the rest of Mississauga is harder.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Docere

Ottawa-Vanier and St. Paul's would be the holdouts if the party gets "Kim Campbelled." St. Paul's could be to Ontario what River Heights is to Manitoba.

My observations driving around in the GTA this week:

- Very split signage between the PCs and NDP in Don Valley North and Willowdale

- In Oshawa, a lot of NDP signs, a few PC signs.

- In Don Valley West (Kathleen Wynne's riding), a lot of Liberal signs, but no shortage of PC signs.

I have not seen a single Liberal sign outside of Wynne's riding, however I've only been in Toronto and Durham this week.

[manny_santos]

Doug Ford keeps saying he's going to put more money into my pocket.

I don't want Doug Ford putting things into my pocket.

[Docere]

Jessica Bell of the NDP is dominating the signage in University-Rosedale, though the Green candidate (Tim Grant) has a lot of signs in his neighborhood where he had been president of the residents' association. Hardly any Liberal signs at all. They got a low-profile last minute candidate (a Catholic school trustee).

[ainvan]

Doug Ford doesn't have a platform yet — but he does have a campaign song

PC Leader Doug Ford may not have a platform yet but he does have a campaign song. It's called For the People and it's being played at his rallies and in his campaign ads. His team has even made a shortened ringtone version of it.

The tune features lyrics like "gotta fight, for what's right, for the people" and "bring us hope, bring us change, for the people." The party wouldn't confirm who wrote the song or how much it cost, saying only that it was written by a Toronto composer.

CBC

[SteelTown]

PC candidate resigns, as his former employer probes theft of data
Brampton East candidate Simmer Sandhu worked for 407 ETR, which announced investigation on Wednesday

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...-etr-1.4666488

A Progressive Conservative candidate abruptly quit on Wednesday evening, hours after his former employer announced it was investigating an internal data breach that affected 60,000 customers.

Simmer Sandhu announced on Twitter that he was stepping down as the PC candidate in Brampton East because of allegations "pertaining to both my work life and my nomination campaign."

Sandhu worked nine years at 407 ETR, the company that owns and operates the 407 toll highway through the GTA.

Late Wednesday afternoon, 407 ETR announced it was informing 60,000 customers that their names, mailing addresses, and in some cases their phone numbers were stolen from the company's office during the past year.

"The incident is being investigated as an inside theft of data," said the company in a statement. It said local police and the province's information and privacy commissioner have been informed.

A company official would not say who was being investigated but confirmed that Sandhu worked for 407 ETR until about two months ago.

"These allegations are totally baseless. I absolutely deny them," Sandhu said on Twitter. He said he will vigorously defend himself, but added, "I feel it is impossible for me to continue as the PC candidate in Brampton East while doing so."

"In light of the investigation into Simmer Sandhu, he felt it was necessary to stand down as a candidate and we accepted his resignation," said PC spokesperson Melissa Lantsman in a statement.

Liberal campaign co-chair Deb Matthews described the allegations as "very disturbing" in a written statement released Wednesday evening.

"If these allegations are true, it goes much deeper than one candidate. It means that the Conservative party may be in possession of stolen personal information that they could be using for political advantage," Matthews wrote.

The PC party named Sudeep Verma as its candidate to replace Sandhu.

[SteelTown]

NDP pledge year-round GO rail service between Niagara and Toronto
Transit plan also includes Hamilton LRT project and rail service between Kitchener-Waterloo and Toronto

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...gara-1.4667608

With seasonal GO rail service to Niagara set to begin this weekend, Andrea Horwath is promising to offer daily trains to and from Toronto year-round if she's elected as Ontario's premier.

The NDP leader made the announcement during a visit to St. Catharines Thursday — the latest to support the project all three major parties say they endorse.

Horwath said people in the area have been "squeezed long enough" so it's time regional transit is expanded to connect commuters.

"Everyday people should be able to count on transit in their communities," she said in a media release. "That means taking action to build the transit system that people deserve, no matter where they live in this province."

Metrolinx says year-round service is expected by 2023

Metrolinx currently offers just seasonal, weekend GO service starting on the upcoming Victoria Day long weekend. Trains leave from Union Station and make stops at Exhibition, Port Credit, Oakville, Burlington, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls.

Three new stations in addition to Confederation are being built to support the service: Casablanca Boulevard in Grimsby, and upgraded rail stations in St. Catharines and Niagara Falls.

Spokesperson Anne Marie Aikins said Metrolinx is already working to bring weekday rail service to Niagara using Hamilton's Confederation GO Station, which is still being built. That work is expected to be completed by 2023.

Horwath also took aim at Progressive Conservative (PC) leader Doug Ford, saying his proposed cuts of $6 billion could mean less service for train riders and higher prices.

PCs and Liberals also committed to expansion

Melissa Lantsman, spokesperson for the PCs, said the NDP claim is "baseless" and that Ford is "committed to supporting two-way, all-day GO Service which will include the Niagara GO Expansion."

She added the party is also committed to funding for other regional GO train and LRT projects.

The Liberals were also critical of the NDP's announcement. In a statement emailed to CBC News, the party said it is already committed to offering weekday GO service, adding the "NDP have voted against these investments every step of the way."

NDP also promise all-day service for Hamilton

The NDP's transit plan also includes covering half of the operating costs of municipal transit and building a Toronto Relief Line and Hamilton LRT project.

Her commitments to Hamilton also include a promise of all-day GO rail service to Toronto — something that has long been talked about, but still hasn't been delivered.

Officials have been negotiating with CN Rail, which controls much of the rails heading into Hamilton, for years, with the goal of offering more frequent service.

Currently there are only four one-way trains each day.

[vid]

I've seen 3 PC signs so far. Currently, Liberals signs are dominating, but this early I think it's just because they're incumbents running for re-election, so they had a large stock of them and were able to get them out right away. Some of the signs Gravelle has up are from 1995 and 1999, and Mauro has a few from 2003 and 2007. Except for Derek Parks in Port Arthur, everyone else is new.

Haven't seen any Green Party signs yet, but typically they just use generic signs with the logo and nothing else.

[Docere]

^ I think the Thunder Bay seats are a good example of the limits of these seat projectors.

[vid]

There could still be an upset here, like the federal election in 2008 when both went NDP. Thunder Bay will occasionally go NDP for a term or two before going back to the Liberals when people are unsatisfied with them, so that could happen.

These seats won't be PC, though, I can guarantee that. It's also looking a little less likely that Kenora-Rainy River will be PC.

[Docere]

Polling in Northern Ontario usually isn't that reliable anyway. It's too small a subset of the Ontario population to get a reasonable sample, and often pollsters use an area code (705/807) definition.

[vid]

807 is a pretty easy one to poll, since it's purely Northwestern Ontario. Sample sizes might be small but you can at least confirm the lack of PC support. I don't know how many, if any, poll 807 on its own though.

The 705/249 area code is trickier because it includes so much of the GTA's suburban fringe.

Also, I know quite a few people now with 226, 289, 705 and 205 area codes who live in Thunder Bay (permanently) and have just taken their numbers with them, so it's not the most accurate measure anymore.

[swimmer_spe]

Around Greater Sudbury, the signs are out for all 3 parties. You can tell where the union hall is, the NDP signs are all of their property.

In Nickel Belt, I would say that the incumbent NDPer has the most signs, and it seems about equal in Sudbury between NDP and the incumbent Liberal. TBH, these 2 parties won't go PC. Most likely NDP.

[swimmer_spe]

So, of thee 3 leaders, who's own seat is safe?

[Docere]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, of thee 3 leaders, who's own seat is safe?

Andrea Horwath's is the safest of the leaders. Hamilton Centre is probably the safest NDP seat in Ontario.

Doug Ford doesn't have a seat at the moment, and the PC vote in Etobicoke North is almost entirely his personal vote. Kathleen Wynne is popular in her constituency of Don Valley West, but that riding has a strong Conservative base as well. But it's establishment conservative, not Fordian populist conservative.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by vid

807 is a pretty easy one to poll, since it's purely Northwestern Ontario. Sample sizes might be small but you can at least confirm the lack of PC support. I don't know how many, if any, poll 807 on its own though.

The 705/249 area code is trickier because it includes so much of the GTA's suburban fringe.

Also, I know quite a few people now with 226, 289, 705 and 205 area codes who live in Thunder Bay (permanently) and have just taken their numbers with them, so it's not the most accurate measure anymore.

Nanos and Mainstreet both verify regions by asking for their postal codes. Forum, however, just uses area codes.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Yeah the 1990 NDP majority was largely an FPTP accident. That said, even if there wasn't that discrepancy, the NDP probably still would have won a minority in 1990 as they did have 5 point popular vote lead.

The path to an NDP majority in 2018 is challenging, but basically involves:
-A near-sweep of the inner city of Toronto (basically everything other than St. Paul's)
-Some seats in Scarborough and North York but the NDP don't have to dominate here
-Winning most of the seats in Peel Region and holding onto their seats in Hamilton and Niagara (if they do that, they don't have to break into York or Durham which are very challenging regions for them)
-A near-complete sweep of the urban seats of the southwest, along with at least one rural or mixed urban-rural seat (Sarnia-Lambton is the best bet)
-A sweep of the North
-At least 3 seats in the East (Ottawa Centre, Kingston, and either Peterborough or Belleville)

Similar to what I'm thinking.

The NDP will need to win seats in Peel Region, especially in Brampton and also break into Mississauga if they are to win government. What I'm saying is that there has to be at least somewhat of a breakthrough somewhere in the 905 and that's where it would most likely happen.

I need somebody to make a list of ridings where the NDP candidate got at least 23% of the votes in 2014 and where the Liberal candidate got at least 20%. Those are the ones to watch.