Queen's Park Politics

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Controversies about NDP candidates are starting to make the rounds in the media, ranging from anti-Zionist comments from an Ottawa candidate, a "lock her up" style comment about Kathleen Wynne from a candidate up north, and a candidate in Mississauga who said wearing poppies at Remembrance Day "glorifies war".

These controversies along with the "long weekend effect" put the NDP into make or break territory; can their momentum keep building and carry them to victory? I feel like we're going to find out whether that's possible or not in this week's polls.

I wonder if the Liberals will end up hanging on to more of their current 905 and 416 seats as voters could realize that in many of those ridings the Liberal has the best chance of defeating the PC candidate. They will still end up in third in the province. Is Ford really as popular as the polls show him to be in the GTA? I don't get how so many people in that area think he's ready to be Premier.

As for the NDP, sure they have a few extreme candidates but the PCs also have some extreme ones. More focus will be on the leaders during the last part of the campaign. Andrea Horwath is not a controversial person and isn't the current Premier so that is her biggest asset right now.

[ainvan]

Ford is (in?)famous down south.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Docere

^ After Ottawa Centre, it's not obvious to me what the next tier seat for the NDP is.

But I guess they decided on Ottawa South. Do they have a stronger candidate there? Maybe something psychologically satisfying about taking McGuinty's old seat?

Looking at Census data, all the other pre-amalgamation Ottawa seats (besides Ottawa Centre) have rather similar levels of educational attainment and incomes, though Ottawa South is the most nonwhite.

The Liberal bastion of Ottawa-Vanier actually showed some potential when Emilie Taman ran there, but she's running for City Council.

The reason they've decided on Ottawa South as their 2nd targeted Ottawa seat is because the candidate there, Eleanor Fast, is reportedly a very strong candidate and her ground campaign is doing very well.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I wonder if the Liberals will end up hanging on to more of their current 905 and 416 seats as voters could realize that in many of those ridings the Liberal has the best chance of defeating the PC candidate. They will still end up in third in the province. Is Ford really as popular as the polls show him to be in the GTA? I don't get how so many people in that area think he's ready to be Premier.

Unfortunately he doesn't need to be that popular, the PCs just need to get a plurality of votes in a riding. And they can do that if there's the right vote-split.

I think he'll do well in York Region - the federal Tories got over 40% of the vote in every seat there except one (Markham-Thornhill) and if he can maintain that share he'll dominate it. The NDP has no hope there, but I can't see the Liberals doing well if they're polling in the 20s province-wide.

Peel Region is more tricky. Unlike in York Region where it was close, the Conservatives were blown out there in the federal election. The NDP is likely to well in Brampton/Malton but the PCs are probably going to win at least some seats in Mississauga.

The PCs are also in conention in a lot of outer Toronto. Not a majority of the popular vote, but pluralities in several seats. Ford makes the PCs more competiive there.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by wave46

It's the new 'conservatism' - buy now, pay later.

That facet - along with the nausea-inducing Ford - makes me revile the PCs. Had Christine Elliot won, we'd probably have something more like Patrick Brown's centrist agenda. I could have voted for that.

Ironically, the NDP is the most fiscally conservative of the parties with respect to the deficit. They might just get my vote as the least bad of the 3 parties.

My vote is going to the NDP, and as a registered voter in Kingston and the Islands, arguably one of the top 10 seats for possible NDP pickup, the vote will matter.

I'm not overly enthused about Horwath or her platform; but it's good enough for me to consider her. I'm part of that tiny minority that actually likes Kathleen Wynne and thinks she's done a good job as Premier, but her platform is fiscally reckless so I'm uncertain about re-electing her. Ford is unpalatable for me (though to be honest, not as badly so as I would have expected).

So overall I'd say that given that:
1) Horwath is solidly in second and possibly poised to win overall;
2) My local riding is a Liberal seat where the PCs are out of the question and the NDP have a solid chance of gaining it;
3) Horwath is at least palatable

.. voting NDP is the best choice for me. But I'm not overly enthusiastic about it.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Docere

Unfortunately he doesn't need to be that popular, the PCs just need to get a plurality of votes in a riding. And they can do that if there's the right vote-split.

I think he'll do well in York Region - the federal Tories got over 40% of the vote in every seat there except one (Markham-Thornhill) and if he can maintain that share he'll dominate it. The NDP has no hope there, but I can't see the Liberals doing well if they're polling in the 20s province-wide.

Peel Region is more tricky. Unlike in York Region where it was close, the Conservatives were blown out there in the federal election. The NDP is likely to well in Brampton/Malton but the PCs are probably going to win at least some seats in Mississauga.

The PCs are also in conention in a lot of outer Toronto. Not a majority of the popular vote, but pluralities in several seats. Ford makes the PCs more competiive there.

Agreed. Peel Region and inner Toronto are the NDP's best bets in the GTA. If they can dominate those two regions, and get at least a few pockets of seats elsewhere in the GTA (retaining their Hamilton-Niagara seats, retaining Oshawa, winning at least a couple in outer Toronto--Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Southwest are the best bets I'd say--and maybe one more in Durham), make some gains in the southwestern cities, sweep the North, gain at least a toehold in Ottawa, and win at least two out of three university towns (Kingston, Guelph, Peterborough), they can get a majority. The math is tough for the NDP because so many seats are basically completely off-limits to them: the whole of York Region, pretty much every non-northern rural seat, and all of suburban Ottawa.

[1overcosc]

Poll tracker has been updated. The PC lead over the NDP has shrunk to 8 points. For the first time this campaign, the PC's confidence interval falls quite a ways into minority territory (all the way down to 57), and the top of the NDP's confidence interval has hit 50 seats!

The Liberals' confidence interval now bottoms out at just 1 seat, Ottawa-Vanier.

[Docere]

Looking at SW Ontario, while the NDP polls very well there overall there's a significant urban-rural split. The NDP does very well in the big cities where they'll be driving out Liberals. But the NDP surge may have a minimal impact in terms of defeating PC MPPs, as the PCs are up about 10 points from Hudak in the "other" communities.

London, Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo

NDP 54%
PCs 25%
Liberals 14%

Other communities

PCs 49%
NDP 34%
Liberals 11%

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/stat...08386603913216

You don't have the ideal conditions for a SW Ont. near-sweep like Rae '90 where vote-splitting on the right helped deliver rural and "rurban" seats. So seats that look like NDP pickups based on a universal swing model, like Chatham and Sarnia, aren't as easy as they look because the PC will likey increase their vote as well.

[SteelTown]

My riding is hard to gauge since it's a new riding, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. My area used to be part of Hamilton Centre, so currently my MPP is Andrea Horwath.

Ted McMeekin is running in my riding, so if there's any hope of a Liberal win in Hamilton, it's this riding. However, with strong Hamilton NDP support it's a toss up. The NDP candidate is Sandy Shaw, she's not well known.

The most interesting riding to watch in Hamilton is Flamborough-Glanbrook, two councillors are running Donna Skelly (PC) and Judi Partridge (Liberal). There's no hope of a NDP win since this riding is a more traditional conservative riding. So far the race has turned into a nasty cat fight with Skelly and Partridge.

Personally, I can't stand Donna Skelly, she's anti-LRT, won a by-election in a ward she doesn't live in, promised she wouldn't run for MPP when he won the by-election two years ago, and is an opportunist politician who doesn't care about her people expect stick to conservative issues.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

My riding is hard to gauge since it's a new riding, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. My area used to be part of Hamilton Centre, so currently my MPP is Andrea Horwath.

Ted McMeekin is running in my riding, so if there's any hope of a Liberal win in Hamilton, it's this riding. However, with strong Hamilton NDP support it's a toss up. The NDP candidate is Sandy Shaw, she's not well known.

I think it's a likely NDP pickup. It is indeed in Andrea Horwath's backyard. It's the more middle class/educated seat in Hamilton, and very "un-Fordian." It's quite a bit like London West or Waterloo demographically.

[HillStreetBlues]

HWAD is more like London North Centre than London West. Older, established neighbourhoods. University. Hospital jobs.

I think McMeekin will win it. I do not think there is much of a chance of the Liberals winning Flamborough.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

HWAD is more like London North Centre than London West. Older, established neighbourhoods. University. Hospital jobs.

I think McMeekin will win it. I do not think there is much of a chance of the Liberals winning Flamborough.

I think places like that are going to switch from Liberal to NDP this election.

[SteelTown]

Andrea Horwath admits NDP platform has $1.4-billion math ‘mistake’

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8...math-mistake-/

OTTAWA Andrea Horwath has admitted to a $1.4-billion math "mistake" in her NDP platform that will increase the annual deficits her government would run if it is elected June 7.

Money was earmarked as a reserve fund to cover unexpected expenses or cash shortfalls but was booked as revenue instead of an expense, with a party official insisting that was appropriate because they don't plan to spend it.

But Horwath, who on Friday said, "I don't have specifics around the detail" and boasted the plan had been reviewed and approved by former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, reversed course Sunday.

"When the mistake was identified, we fixed it right away," she said, insisting the party can keep its promises including dental care, pharmacare and improved daycare.

"It will mean our deficit will take a little longer to eradicate," acknowledged Horwath, whose party has been on the upswing in public opinion polls and is running second to Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives.

Instead of $3.3 billion, the NDP now forecasts its deficit would grow to $4.7 billion in its first year because of the miscalculation in its platform document.

While the reserve fund was budgeted at $700 million, moving it from the revenue column to the expense side doubles the fiscal impact to $1.4 billion. By law, all governments must set money aside in a reserve account for contingencies.

[Docere]

^ I guess this neutralizes any perceived differences between the NDP and Liberals with regard to "fiscal responsibility." I don't see the Liberals gaining much traction from this.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I think places like that are going to switch from Liberal to NDP this election.

Me too. The "liberally minded" are shifting towards the NDP this election.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Docere

^ I guess this neutralizes any perceived differences between the NDP and Liberals with regard to "fiscal responsibility." I don't see the Liberals gaining much traction from this.

I agree. It doesn't instill confidence, but the projected NDP deficit, as revised, is still much smaller than that planned by the Liberals.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Docere

^ I guess this neutralizes any perceived differences between the NDP and Liberals with regard to "fiscal responsibility." I don't see the Liberals gaining much traction from this.

I don't see the Liberals or PCs admitting that they even make mistakes...

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I agree. It doesn't instill confidence, but the projected NDP deficit, as revised, is still much smaller than that planned by the Liberals.

The NDP have corrected their platform document online. With the revision, the NDP platform projects a 2022 deficit of $2.9 billion, with realistic and conservative estimates on spending and revenue.

By contrast, the Liberals are projecting a deficit of $4.0 billion in 2022, but they're relying on about $2.5 billion in unspecified efficiencies in 2021 and 2022 in order to get there. (Ironically, that's only a little bit lower than the unspecified efficiencies that Doug Ford is planning!).

So by the end of a majority term, we're comparing a $2.9 billion deficit under Horwath where all the math checks out and everything is planned for.. to a $4.0 billion deficit under Wynne that relies to some extent on fairy dust.

NDP are still the most fiscally responsible choice.

Plus I'd argue that the NDP's proposed new social programs a lot more efficient and logical than the Liberal's proposed new social programs.

Look at childcare. The Liberals are proposing free childcare for everyone aged 2.5 to start of kindergarten, regardless of income. Wealthy parents will get free childcare they don't really need, while lower and middle income families, while getting a big boost, will still be struggling between the end of parental leave and age 2.5 years, a gap of about a year and a half for most people.

The NDP by contrast are proposing childcare coverage for children of all ages, with means testing. So low income families get it free, middle income families pay on a sliding scale, wealthy families pay actual cost. This ensures that everyone who needs childcare can get it. Under the NDP scenario the economic benefits of childcare are maximized.

Or pharmacare. The Liberals are proposing a weird scheme where people without coverage can get a very tiny annual allowance for drug costs. The NDP are proposing a scheme of picking a list of 125 drugs that will be completely covered by the province, with the list to be chosen by a thorough analysis of which drug list would give us the greatest bang for the buck in terms of improved health outcomes and increased efficiency.

So with the NDP we get a smaller deficit, and arguably better social programs. This time around, they're the true progressive option. As opposed to last time when it was the Liberals.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I don't see the Liberals or PCs admitting that they even make mistakes...

Agreed, the fact that the NDP admitted the mistake and corrected their platform actually makes me happier with Horwath, because it shows they have the ability to admit they're wrong and move on.

[Docere]

Ipsos has the NDP and PCs statistically tied:

NDP 37%
PCs 36%
Liberals 23%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/o...ed-ipsos-poll/

Find the regional breakdowns a bit hard to believe (Tories doing better in Toronto than 905???) but if does suggest that the NDP may be able to break into the key 905 belt and shows the path to victory.

[MolsonExport]

Anybody but Ford.
Anybody but Ford.
Anybody but Ford.

I could chant this all day.