Queen's Park Politics

[Bcasey25raptor]

Yep I'm solid in my prediction now, Horwath will be premier on june 7th.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Yep I'm solid in my prediction now, Horwath will be premier on june 7th.

Minority or majority?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Minority or majority?

I'm still leaning on minority but that might change, ask me june 1st

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'm still leaning on minority but that might change, ask me june 1st

I am leaning towards Majority. Reason is, right now, she is in minority territory. Unless she messes up, her support will only increase.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am leaning towards Majority. Reason is, right now, she is in minority territory. Unless she messes up, her support will only increase.

Right now for me the question is whether the NDP can reach 40% of the popular vote and just how far can the PCs fall?

at this point I can see election day turning out this way
NDP 39%
PC's 34%
Liberals 22%
5% green/other

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Is there any talk of Liberal supporters being asked to vote for the NDP this time to keep Ford out of office? Analogously to how many NDPers threw their lot in with Trudeau to help get rid of Harper?

In 2015 that was the only logical course of action for NDP supporters who wanted to ensure that Harper wasn't reelected, and I'm starting to think, as a Liberal voter myself, that it may be time to return the favour. But I haven't really seen anything in the media related to the idea.

I'm still undecided. I have voted PC provincially my entire life and I had planned to vote PC this time around until Doug Ford became leader. I have never voted NDP either federally or provincially.

I'm inclined to vote NDP because provincially they look to have the best chance to beat the PCs, but I can't overlook my own riding, where the Liberal candidate is a well-known Toronto city councilor, and more importantly tooclosetocall.ca is showing the NDP in distant third place with the PCs in first place and the Liberals not very far behind. So I may still vote Liberal if that candidate is likely to win. (I am not in Wynne's riding but live adjacent to it)

The NDP's fiscal plan is also more appealing to me than the Liberals.

[MolsonExport]

pinimg

Beware of Doug signs pop up around Toronto


twitter

Be Afraid. Be very Afraid.

lizard

[ainvan]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

[Innsertnamehere]

The NDP gain is moving really quick now - wouldn't be surprised to see them slide past Dougie in the next two weeks. Still not too sure about voting for them - But mind you i'm all over the place in this election.

Honestly dougie and his policies would probably be best for me - the tax savings hit me pretty much exactly on all of them, I do a fair bit of driving, have an income that can take advantage of the proposed tax cuts, etc., etc. But its doug. And that money has gotta come from somewhere. and his transit plans are crap.

Wynne is.. well, Wynne. Liberals are who I was thinking of voting for again originally, albeit it with a bit of a held nose.

NDP have some great policy points that I would love - the focus on the DRL, the proposal to increase minimum vacation time to 3 weeks, and others. But I don't like their proposal to eliminate auto insurance brackets based on location, or their plan to buy back Hydro.

They all have problems. I can see myself voting NDP if this polling swing continues to prevent a Dougie situation.. but I'm not much of a fan of strategic voting.

[1overcosc]

Andrea is now literally saying "It's either me or Doug Ford."

[vid]

In terms of income, Ford's platform probably benefits me more as an individual, but I have to support extended family members who are in lower income brackets, and his platform will without a doubt reduce what they'll get, which is already meager. I'm also involved in volunteer work in a low income neighbourhood and while we don't receive provincial funding of any kind, the impact of a PC government on municipal governments could have negative consequences there.

If I have to put more into supporting my family, plus more time and donations to my community to keep our organization going, just for the benefit of saving a few hundred dollars a year.... It just isn't worth it. I can't. A few hundred dollars a year in my pocket can't make up for the difference that will open up under his leadership. It just can't.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Andrea is now literally saying "It's either me or Doug Ford."

And she's not wrong. Of the Liberal holdouts who are starting to have doubts, I'm near certain far more would prefer Premier Andrea Horwath over Premier Doug Ford.

[MolsonExport]

In my tax bracket, I would stand to gain quite a bit of extra dollars with Ford, but no money savings is worth having Ford as Premier, on account of his platform (or lack thereof), dishonesty, and thuggishness. Besides, I recall the last "common nonsense" revolution of Mike Harris which set the province back a decade or two (and ended up costing much more in the long run).

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Right now for me the question is whether the NDP can reach 40% of the popular vote and just how far can the PCs fall?

at this point I can see election day turning out this way
NDP 39%
PC's 34%
Liberals 22%
5% green/other

I agree with your PC and Green/Others numbers but think you are way off on your NDP & Liberal support.

Many who will say they will vote Liberal now will have a change of heart at the very last minute, plug their nose, and vote NDP to stop a Ford government. I think the NDP will soar to upwards of 45% while the Liberals tank to WELL under 20%. This is going to be Kim Campbell Part Deux.

Trudeau and Harper know this better than anyone from the last federal election. The Liberals, as always, were polling well in Atlantic Canada but the Conservatives were still expecting from 5 to 8 seats in their traditional areas especially in NB while the NDP were expecting about 3 or 4 in their Nova Scotia strongholds.

By all the polling numbers their expectations seemed reasonable but then election day came and all those NDP voters switched sides at the last minute to stop a Harper victory............the ABC vote came out and stopped the centre left/left vote splitting and allowed them to overwhelm the Tories. The rest was history and historic as for the first time ever one party swept all the seats in Atlantic Canada to everyone's surprise including the Liberals themselves.

[Docere]

If the Libs get Kim Campbelled or Ujjal Dosanjhed, St. Paul's and Ottawa-Vanier are their most likely holdouts.

Other possibilites include Ottawa South, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Toronto Centre (though that could go NDP), a Thunder Bay seat or two (personal popularity of the MPPs, though those could go NDP too)...it's hard to think of many others.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I agree with your PC and Green/Others numbers but think you are way off on your NDP & Liberal support.

Many who will say they will vote Liberal now will have a change of heart at the very last minute, plug their nose, and vote NDP to stop a Ford government. I think the NDP will soar to upwards of 45% while the Liberals tank to WELL under 20%. This is going to be Kim Campbell Part Deux.

Trudeau and Harper know this better than anyone from the last federal election. The Liberals, as always, were polling well in Atlantic Canada but the Conservatives were still expecting from 5 to 8 seats in their traditional areas especially in NB while the NDP were expecting about 3 or 4 in their Nova Scotia strongholds.

By all the polling numbers their expectations seemed reasonable but then election day came and all those NDP voters switched sides at the last minute to stop a Harper victory............the ABC vote came out and stopped the centre left/left vote splitting and allowed them to overwhelm the Tories. The rest was history and historic as for the first time ever one party swept all the seats in Atlantic Canada to everyone's surprise including the Liberals themselves.

I mean I agree but I think you're being a little be overly optimistic.

[Loco101]

The NDP is adding areas where they may pick up seats from quite a few current Liberal and even some current PC ridings:

(these are the very recent gains)

-in Peel Region they will probably win ALL five of the Brampton seats and possibly 3 of 6 Mississauga seats.

-the more rural seats surrounding Hamilton that aren't currently NDP (Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas and also likely is St. Catharines)

-in Durham Region they currently only have Oshawa but will probably add Durham electoral district and possibly Ajax. Maybe one more riding if the surge is huge.

-in Simcoe County they have a possible chance at one or two of the Barrie and area ridings with a last minute surge (and don't forget that Patrick Brown is from this area)

-Peterborough, two seats in that area (if they win government) Peterborough is the ultimate bellweather place.

-Kingston and maybe a riding or two between there and the GTA (the riding that includes Belleville for example)

-in Ottawa (likely one but possibly two or three)

- a possible sweep of Southwestern cities (Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph, London, Chatham, Sarnia) instead of just winning most of the seats in those places (and they already have all of the seats in Windsor)

-Sault Ste. Marie (NDP for sure now)

-Thunder Bay (the Liberal cabinet ministers may be defeated)

-Sudbury (NDP for sure now)

-in Toronto possibly 2 or 3 Scarborough ridings

-

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Right now for me the question is whether the NDP can reach 40% of the popular vote and just how far can the PCs fall?

at this point I can see election day turning out this way
NDP 39%
PC's 34%
Liberals 22%
5% green/other

I agree with your prediction if Horwath does extremely well in the final debate.

But this is my guess at this point:

NDP 37%

PC 35%

Lib 23%

Grn/Other 5%

I'm also predicting that the PCs will win the most seats but the NDP will have more votes in total. I could also see a scenario where the PCs just barely win a majority with only 35-37% of the votes.

Disclosure: I'm voting NDP in this election and I normally vote Liberal. I can't stand Doug Ford!

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I agree with your prediction if Horwath does extremely well in the final debate.

But this is my guess at this point:

NDP 37%

PC 35%

Lib 23%

Grn/Other 5%

I'm also predicting that the PCs will win the most seats but the NDP will have more votes in total. I could also see a scenario where the PCs just barely win a majority with only 35-37% of the votes.

Disclosure: I'm voting NDP in this election and I normally vote Liberal. I can't stand Doug Ford!

God that'd piss off a lot of people, 35% of voters a small minority forcing a right wing government on the 65% that didn't want it. We NEED to abolish FPTP badly.

[ssiguy]

I don`t think I am exaggerating about the surge in NDP support. The final days may see the NDP in the upper 30s but when voting day comes those Liberals will plug their collective noses and vote NDP as they know the stronger the Liberal vote, the bigger the Ford government. Liberal voters may not WANT an NDP government but they are SCARED of a Ford one and will vote accordingly.