Queen's Park Politics

[vid]

Is there literally no one? If he wins, how is going to be in his cabinet? Randy Hillier and that weird homeschooled kid?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

Christine Elliott would have been the best choice in 2015...

Now? Maybe Steve Clark, or John Yakabuski, or Sylvia Jones.

Lisa MacLeod for sure. She seems to be more human and reasonable.

[HillStreetBlues]

Lisa MacLeod would be a good choice, too. There are options. But that comment about "Randy Hillier and the weird homeschooled kid" made me laugh out loud. I bet that's what a lot of Ontarians think when they think of a potential PC cabinet- with Ernie Hardemann from somewhere outside of Ingersoll as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.

One prediction is that one or more prominent Tory MPs may stand for election provincially next year- if they think the prospects of forming government are good, that is. That's the only way the party could claim to have cabinet-experienced people ready to take the reigns of government.

Harper drew experienced Harris ministers to form part of his cabinet- I'm sure it was a boon when time came to actually govern. I know that the move from federal to provincial is less logical, but I can see it happening. Though only if there are MPs who think the Tories are actually going to win next year.

[SteelTown]

Tech boom marks revival in fortune for Ontario government
Ontario’s economy is expected to grow by 2.3 per cent this year, outpacing all other provinces. This hasn’t happened since 2000.

https://www.thestar.com/business/201...overnment.html

Things are looking bright for Dan Leibu and League Inc., a digital health and benefits platform he founded with three friends two years ago in Toronto.

League plans to triple staff to as many as 200 by the end of the year and start offering services in the U.S. The company provides an alternative to traditional benefit plans offered by insurers, targeting small and medium-sized businesses that appreciate its flexibility and easy access. It received $25 million in venture funding last year from one of Canada’s largest pension plans, among others.

“We’re just racing to catch up with the demand,” Leibu, 43, said in an interview in the company’s office in the MaRS Discovery District, an innovation hub that fosters technology and medical start-ups such as League in Toronto’s hospital row, where much of the country’s publicly funded science research is carried out.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveiled an “innovation budget” last month designed to help improve the country’s historically poor record at bringing ideas to market. The shift is already underway.

That growth is expected to help Kathleen Wynne balance the province’s books for the first time in a decade when the Ontario government releases its budget this spring for the fiscal year starting April 1. The province expects a $1.9 billion deficit for last fiscal year, down from a projected $4.3 billion gap in the 2015-16 budget.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

Lisa MacLeod would be a good choice, too. There are options. But that comment about "Randy Hillier and the weird homeschooled kid" made me laugh out loud. I bet that's what a lot of Ontarians think when they think of a potential PC cabinet- with Ernie Hardemann from somewhere outside of Ingersoll as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.

One prediction is that one or more prominent Tory MPs may stand for election provincially next year- if they think the prospects of forming government are good, that is. That's the only way the party could claim to have cabinet-experienced people ready to take the reigns of government.

Harper drew experienced Harris ministers to form part of his cabinet- I'm sure it was a boon when time came to actually govern. I know that the move from federal to provincial is less logical, but I can see it happening. Though only if there are MPs who think the Tories are actually going to win next year.

I think you're right that there will be some current and former CPC MPs who will be interested in running. I think there already are a few. By 2018, there won't be so much association with the former Harper government. I could also see some of them being interested if the ON PCs don't do well and they want to be the next leader and possibly future Premier. Some possibilities for future leader:

Maybe these CPC leadership candidates are just currently advertising themselves for a run at provincial leadership?

I wonder if Chris Alexander would do it?
Also:
Pierre Lemieux
Lisa Raitt

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I think you're right that there will be some current and former CPC MPs who will be interested in running. I think there already are a few. By 2018, there won't be so much association with the former Harper government. I could also see some of them being interested if the ON PCs don't do well and they want to be the next leader and possibly future Premier. Some possibilities for future leader:

Maybe these CPC leadership candidates are just currently advertising themselves for a run at provincial leadership?

I wonder if Chris Alexander would do it?
Also:
Pierre Lemieux
Lisa Raitt

Definitely not Pierre Lemieux - he's so socially conservative he would destroy the GTA establishment and send them to the Liberals so fast. Lisa Raitt maybe but she'll almost certainly be back in cabinet if the federal Conservatives get back into government in 2019. Chris Alexander maybe, but he seems like a loose cannon as well.

Are there any good conservatives not named Doug Ford (such a loose cannon) or John Tory (the base loathes him) in municipal politics that might be worth looking into? I know last time the ideal candidate I felt was Eddie Francis (solid record, able to win in enemy territory) but he's farther removed from politics now.

[1overcosc]

Given that Brown has a much higher chance of winning the 2018 provincial election than the federal tories have of winning the 2019 federal election, I can see a fair number of federal Tory MPs going down to the provincial level. Provincial cabinet minister > federal opposition member.

[eternallyme]

Calls for Wynne's departure are getting louder. They are having fundraising trouble and having a hard time finding candidates.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queensp...es-future.html

[Loco101]

[Loco101]

I'm pretty sure that Wynne will decide within the next few months whether she will stay or step down. The above ad shows that her office is trying to see if defining Patrick Brown will hurt PC support. Brown has been very weak as opposition leader so far and uninteresting. And the upcoming budget will be very good news for the current government. That will be the big test to see if Wynne's support rises at all and if she stays on for the next election. With hydro rates set to go down in the Summer, it may help the Ontario Liberal's Party's imagine and erase some bad memories. But will it be enough? I'm saying that it's about 50/50 whether or not the Premier will stay on.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm pretty sure that Wynne will decide within the next few months whether she will stay or step down. The above ad shows that her office is trying to see if defining Patrick Brown will hurt PC support. Brown has been very weak as opposition leader so far and uninteresting. And the upcoming budget will be very good news for the current government. That will be the big test to see if Wynne's support rises at all and if she stays on for the next election. With hydro rates set to go down in the Summer, it may help the Ontario Liberal's Party's imagine and erase some bad memories. But will it be enough? I'm saying that it's about 50/50 whether or not the Premier will stay on.

All that could do is boost NDP support - can she attack in both directions? If the swing voters shift to the orange team, they could pull ahead of both of them.

[HillStreetBlues]

I don't understand the ad. What is Taube's quote referring to, specifically? I can guess, but that doesn't seem like an effective ad to me.

That having been said, there is plenty that the Grits can make hay with when it comes to Brown's background, his lacklustre performance as opposition leader, and some members of his caucus. We know they will, but how far in advance of the writ do they need to start? Loco101, good point that they might be on the offensive to try to gauge how effective their attacks might be, to decide whether Wynne should stand in the next election.

I personally can't fathom someone winning a majority government after her party's former leader leaves in considerable disgrace and disappears, and then that same person's popularity sliding so much that in three years' time she would be forced to step down as her party's leader. But I may be less sophisticated than the average voting Ontarian.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

All that could do is boost NDP support - can she attack in both directions? If the swing voters shift to the orange team, they could pull ahead of both of them.

She attacked in both directions during the last election campaign. The Liberals picked up a Toronto seats that had been NDP for quite awhile. I remember the first ad they put out asked "Is Andrea Horwath for real?"

I don't think doing the exact same thing would work this time.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I don't understand the ad. What is Taube's quote referring to, specifically? I can guess, but that doesn't seem like an effective ad to me.

That having been said, there is plenty that the Grits can make hay with when it comes to Brown's background, his lacklustre performance as opposition leader, and some members of his caucus. We know they will, but how far in advance of the writ do they need to start? Loco101, good point that they might be on the offensive to try to gauge how effective their attacks might be, to decide whether Wynne should stand in the next election.

I personally can't fathom someone winning a majority government after her party's former leader leaves in considerable disgrace and disappears, and then that same person's popularity sliding so much that in three years' time she would be forced to step down as her party's leader. But I may be less sophisticated than the average voting Ontarian.

I know what you mean that it's hard to see the Wynne Liberals winning again. But the PCs have such a bad team and a poor leader. I just can't believe how weak and out of touch they have been. Patrick Brown is no Mike Harris or Bill Davis. Wynne was expected to lose last time but she is an amazing campaigner and was interesting. Patrick Brown just seems like a kinder and gentler version of Tim Hudak.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

She attacked in both directions during the last election campaign. The Liberals picked up a Toronto seats that had been NDP for quite awhile. I remember the first ad they put out asked "Is Andrea Horwath for real?"

I don't think doing the exact same thing would work this time.

How would this play out beyond the GTA though? The Liberals are dead in the water in most of the rest of the province (in SW Ontario especially I expect most seats to have Liberals in single digits, possibly in 4th place behind the Greens!), but the blue and orange teams will be fighting each other in many seats...

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

How would this play out beyond the GTA though? The Liberals are dead in the water in most of the rest of the province (in SW Ontario especially I expect most seats to have Liberals in single digits, possibly in 4th place behind the Greens!), but the blue and orange teams will be fighting each other in many seats...

I'm going to quote your prediction about fourth-place showings in the southwest in 2018. I don't think Deb Matthews is likely to lose her seat. So, maybe the Liberals don't pick up any in the region, but they won't lose any, either- they have no others to lose.

The Greater Golden Horseshoe is the majority of the province. The Grits don't need a lot (currently, they don't have a lot) anywhere else. Of those few they have outside the GTA, a number have had profiles cultivated for them (Yasir Naqvi, Liz Sandals) or are in ridings that would only turn under very extreme circumstances (Bob Chiarelli, Jim Bradley, a few others).

Anyway, I think it's won or lost in the GTA. And by outflanking the NDP on the left and attacking both the NDP and the Tories, they pulled it off last time, so maybe they can again.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

How would this play out beyond the GTA though? The Liberals are dead in the water in most of the rest of the province (in SW Ontario especially I expect most seats to have Liberals in single digits, possibly in 4th place behind the Greens!), but the blue and orange teams will be fighting each other in many seats...

It's really hard to predict the GTA right now. The PCs will really have to go socially moderate and even go more moderate economically to be appealing there. The problem for that party is that there are very few if almost no current MPPs who are that way. So the campaign would have to centre around the leader who hasn't been charming at all as of yet. The party will have to release its platform early if they want voters to be interested and it will have to contain some things that excite a number of voters.

The NDP has the potential but I just don't see something happening like with Bob Rae in 1990. Polls are showing that a large percentage of voters are still considering voting Liberal.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I'm going to quote your prediction about fourth-place showings in the southwest in 2018. I don't think Deb Matthews is likely to lose her seat. So, maybe the Liberals don't pick up any in the region, but they won't lose any, either- they have no others to lose.

The Greater Golden Horseshoe is the majority of the province. The Grits don't need a lot (currently, they don't have a lot) anywhere else. Of those few they have outside the GTA, a number have had profiles cultivated for them (Yasir Naqvi, Liz Sandals) or are in ridings that would only turn under very extreme circumstances (Bob Chiarelli, Jim Bradley, a few others).

Anyway, I think it's won or lost in the GTA. And by outflanking the NDP on the left and attacking both the NDP and the Tories, they pulled it off last time, so maybe they can again.

Deb Matthews could lose her seat. David Peterson lost his in London as Premier! But I do agree that some of the current Liberal seats will likely remain Liberal due to local popularity.

The current Liberal government seems to have gotten the worst of things out of the way and there will likely be lots of good news over next year. (balanced budget, economic growth, spending on infrastructure, health care, education, etc.) It will be interesting to see how the PCs will try to portray themselves as being a viable alternative.

[HillStreetBlues]

Excellent point about Peterson!

And good point that very few sitting Tory members are moderates. And I think the Grits could portray Brown as anything but with relatively little effort. He could surprise, but has yet to.

Attracting quality candidates with solid recognition and good campaigning experience will be key for the Tories.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Deb Matthews could lose her seat. David Peterson lost his in London as Premier! But I do agree that some of the current Liberal seats will likely remain Liberal due to local popularity.

The current Liberal government seems to have gotten the worst of things out of the way and there will likely be lots of good news over next year. (balanced budget, economic growth, spending on infrastructure, health care, education, etc.) It will be interesting to see how the PCs will try to portray themselves as being a viable alternative.

I'd say London North Centre is one of the first 5 seats to go (Brant is probably the most vulnerable, the other top 5 are Sault Ste. Marie, St. Catharines and Barrie-Innisfil, the last due to redistribution).

The ONLY reasonable Liberal pickups are probably the two Toronto NDP seats.