Surrey Langley Skytrain - Expo Line Extension | Proposed

[GMasterAres]

I'm on the fence with the cost estimates. On the one hand, my heart just feels $1.6 billion estimate for extension to Langley is completely wrong (too low), it _HAS_ to be more though how much more I don't know and don't think it is $2.9 billion.

On the other hand, Millennium Line was constructed by 2002 for $1.2 billion and was 25.5km long and had 17 stations compared to this stretch which is virtually straight as an arrow, 16.something km long and has 8 stations.

Even if you took $1.2 billion and factored in inflation and market fluctuations, today that would be around $1.7 billion to build Millennium, only $0.1 billion ($100 million) more than the budget.

So like I said, my heart thinks it will be more maybe because I just have little faith in our governments predicting capital cost, but my head says it isn't entirely out in left field.

If I was betting, I think SkyTrain out to Langley could be done for around $2 billion. That would seem to me to be the safe bet. $2.9 is insane, $1.6 just feels a bit low. But there are no tunnels, and the line is nearly straight as an arrow.

Assuming this starts construction in 2021, accounting for inflation to there $2.0 billion in today's dollars would be around $2.2 billion or so.

I dunno. I just think it has to happen all the way to Langley. I don't like the idea of skimping. Find more bloody money it isn't that hard. The only thing in this whole equation I am 100% confident in is that if they DON'T build out to Langley now and decide to do it later, it will cost WAY MORE later than if we just found the money now. That is 100% going to happen.

Overpasses for the SFPR that are about to be put in over the next 5 years already look to be 4-5 times the price compared to if the Liberal government just built them before the SFPR opened case and point so if they can only get to Clayton and it will cost another $500 million to go the rest to Langley, I say find the damned money because in 10 years that will be $1 billion more.

[Migrant_Coconut]

TransLink's estimate actually is $2.2 billion. The other $700M comes from adding another 33% for budget overruns.

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

TransLink's estimate actually is $2.2 billion. The other $700M comes from adding another 33% for budget overruns.

This also omits considering rise in property values.

Like, the actual construction costs for the Skytrain would actually be less than the surface LRT from less expensive property needing to be bought. The Skytrain can quite literately be built above or below ground under/over existing road ROW's. The LRT plan was basically the equivalent of a bus stop in the median of the road, thus far more surface area was needed, and thus road space reduced. With the Skytrain stations the often quoted criticism (of elevated and subways) is that they're not handicapped accessible "enough", despite the fact that they're accessible. A low-floor LRT, is not any more accessible, it just is less effort to build and less effort for someone in a wheel chair to access it since it's at surface. However anyone that has ever ridden a low-floor LRT or Bus will tell you, there is only room for two wheel chairs per car, or only one mobility scooter or over-sized stroller. The Skytrain lets you fit one or two of these per door. There are stairs in low-floor buses and LRV's that prevent the handicapped passengers from moving anywhere else in the LRV.

When the Millenium line was being built, it was being built without the rapid escalation in property values. The Surrey LRT however was being pushed, despite the escalating prices. In the end, had the LRT been built it certainly would be more expensive than having built the Skytrain in the first place, and someone (probably Skytrain for Surrey) did some back-of-the-envelope calculations before showing that at the rate of property price increases, the Skytrain would in fact end up cheaper, even before factoring in operational and maintenance costs. What ultimately sunk the LRT's business case, and why it should have been scrapped 4 years ago, was the escalating prices all over Metro Vancouver due to the real-estate/money-laundering/drug-trade/etc influence. Perhaps now that the prices are going back down slowly it might be easier to get a estimate.

But the price of concrete is still one reason why the price of the guideway construction can increase.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by jhausner

... But there are no tunnels, and the line is nearly straight as an arrow.

Also factor in whether the guideway is "side of the road" like No. 3 Rd.
or "in the median" like Brentwood Town Centre.

Side of the road:
- shorter guideway
- less imposing stations but on one side of street only
- stations take up more land.

In the median:
- taller undulating guideway that climbs for mezzanine overpasses at stations (think Brentwood)
- larger imposing stations connecting to both sides of street, but shadowing street
- stations occupy an airspace parcel over the roadway (no extra land(?))

Consider whether a median alignment could come down to grade or whether that's only possible for a side of road alignment.

[BirchTrain]

Originally Posted by Xrayal

Doug McCallum was on CKNW today discussing SkyTrain https://omny.fm/shows/the-simi-sara-...-days-as-mayor

He’s keeping to his previously stated themes such as building it at grade through green timbers and the ALR and allowing 24 hours/7 days a week construction to save money. He also added that the fraser highway ROW is quite wide so they don’t have to spend any money on land accquisition. He is now adding reduced stations and project scope to save cost. At the end he finally capitulates and agrees he might not be able to get the whole line done to Langley and blames inflation and increased steel costs. He also brings up the possibility of the Hong Kong’s MRT model of development fees around the stations to help pay for the line.

C’mon McCallum, just admit that it will cost more than $1.6 billion. We should not be removing stations, or else ridership may drop and fewer opportunities to have transit oriented development.

I believe a TransLink report had the SkyTrain run down the side mostly. Fraser Highway is narrower than King George Blvd, and I don’t know what he’s talking about when he said the right of way is quite wide.

[BirchTrain]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Is there a chance the track could bend?

What do you mean by “bend”? If you mean curve around corners, then yes, they can. Track switches for do exist too. If you mean that the track could warp, then I’m not sure. I’ve never heard of anything like that.

[Metro-One]

I don’t know why they don’t start looking at the South of the Fraser project costs as a whole. Just combine phase one and two in this form (Skytrain to Langley and Rapid Bus on the L-Line) which is going to be considerably cheaper than the 27km of LRT plan, and just call the entire thing phase 2.5.

Done.

Throw is a couple hundred million now to save a whole lot more later.

That or just plan the entire line, start building as far as the current funds can take the line and before the line opens phase 3 will be starting anyways which should allow for continuous construction, no?

Again it is a 10 year plan, and last time I checked that should mean that the entire plan is completed in 2027 / 2028.

Fuck, it hurts thinking so logically in this world.

[nname]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

24/7 construction to "save money". WTF is he smoking?

To speed up construction. If the project can be finish earlier, then cost for inflation is reduced.

An annual 3% inflation of $2.6B project is about $80M.

[Waders]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

TransLink's estimate actually is $2.2 billion. The other $700M comes from adding another 33% for budget overruns.

Both CTV news and Straight mention the cost is $2.6 billion, not $2.9 billion. Where did the media get the number?

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Also factor in whether the guideway is "side of the road" like No. 3 Rd.
or "in the median" like Brentwood Town Centre.

Side of the road:
- shorter guideway
- less imposing stations but on one side of street only
- stations take up more land.

In the median:
- taller undulating guideway that climbs for mezzanine overpasses at stations (think Brentwood)
- larger imposing stations connecting to both sides of street, but shadowing street
- stations occupy an airspace parcel over the roadway (no extra land(?))

Consider whether a median alignment could come down to grade or whether that's only possible for a side of road alignment.

This is what has been considered:

Originally Posted by Sheba

From the Hatch Preliminary Cost Estimates Report (pdf) pg 41

Obviously this was before the proposed 148th St (the other side of Green Timbers) future station. 192nd St is where 64th Ave crosses and 196th is Willowbrook.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by BirchTrain

What do you mean by “bend”? If you mean curve around corners, then yes, they can. Track switches for do exist too. If you mean that the track could warp, then I’m not sure. I’ve never heard of anything like that.

The Simpsons Monorail Song

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by jhausner

If I was betting, I think SkyTrain out to Langley could be done for around $2 billion. That would seem to me to be the safe bet. $2.9 is insane, $1.6 just feels a bit low. But there are no tunnels, and the line is nearly straight as an arrow.

...and it's going to be constructed on piles through the ALR as the ground is like 'peanut butter'. I'm not sure if the rest of the ground it'll be built on is solid or not.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Waders

Both CTV news and Straight mention the cost is $2.6 billion, not $2.9 billion. Where did the media get the number?

Wait, so not only is RRT1 cheaper than LRT1, it's actually almost a full billion cheaper? If I weren't such a wide-eyed idealist, I'd think that Hepner just forced TransLink to slap on another $300M for SkyTrain in the 2017 report - after all, nobody's going to use the numbers from the 2012 study...

[BirchTrain]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

The Simpsons Monorail Song

Softly as a cloud, aberdeen5698. I do not watch the Simpsons

[flipper316]

Originally Posted by BirchTrain

What do you mean by “bend”? If you mean curve around corners, then yes, they can. Track switches for do exist too. If you mean that the track could warp, then I’m not sure. I’ve never heard of anything like that.

The Simpsons reference. Monorail episode. Lyle Lanley, Ogdenville, North Haverbook. Ring any bells?

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by jhausner

I'm on the fence with the cost estimates. On the one hand, my heart just feels $1.6 billion estimate for extension to Langley is completely wrong (too low), it _HAS_ to be more though how much more I don't know and don't think it is $2.9 billion.

On the other hand, Millennium Line was constructed by 2002 for $1.2 billion and was 25.5km long and had 17 stations compared to this stretch which is virtually straight as an arrow, 16.something km long and has 8 stations.

Even if you took $1.2 billion and factored in inflation and market fluctuations, today that would be around $1.7 billion to build Millennium, only $0.1 billion ($100 million) more than the budget.

So like I said, my heart thinks it will be more maybe because I just have little faith in our governments predicting capital cost, but my head says it isn't entirely out in left field.

If I was betting, I think SkyTrain out to Langley could be done for around $2 billion. That would seem to me to be the safe bet. $2.9 is insane, $1.6 just feels a bit low. But there are no tunnels, and the line is nearly straight as an arrow.

Assuming this starts construction in 2021, accounting for inflation to there $2.0 billion in today's dollars would be around $2.2 billion or so.

I dunno. I just think it has to happen all the way to Langley. I don't like the idea of skimping. Find more bloody money it isn't that hard. The only thing in this whole equation I am 100% confident in is that if they DON'T build out to Langley now and decide to do it later, it will cost WAY MORE later than if we just found the money now. That is 100% going to happen.

Overpasses for the SFPR that are about to be put in over the next 5 years already look to be 4-5 times the price compared to if the Liberal government just built them before the SFPR opened case and point so if they can only get to Clayton and it will cost another $500 million to go the rest to Langley, I say find the damned money because in 10 years that will be $1 billion more.

Originally Posted by BirchTrain

C’mon McCallum, just admit that it will cost more than $1.6 billion. We should not be removing stations, or else ridership may drop and fewer opportunities to have transit oriented development.

I believe a TransLink report had the SkyTrain run down the side mostly. Fraser Highway is narrower than King George Blvd, and I don’t know what he’s talking about when he said the right of way is quite wide.

We could probably get, for example, Willowbrook Mall for higher density than currently planned, or raise fees from developers (sort of like what is being done near Capstan Way). Thus, removing all the station costs (assuming a $30 million dollar cost, rounded up from (http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/capst...-richmond-2017), you still get only $240 Million.

Assuming the new $2.6 B cost is correct, and you remove the 25% cost margin, and unload station costs onto the private sector, you get $1.71 B in cost. Not $1.6 B, but close, and plausible for Surrey and Langley to finance if no one else is willing to fund the cash gap.

You also risk some stations not being built if the private sector is unwilling to cover the costs, especially as RE prices are stagnating. Also, removing all cost margin leaves less room for cost overruns.

TL;DR: Doug might not actually be too far off with the cost estimates, if we get creative with financing, and cut the margins to 0.

Maybe.




Remember that the Serpentine R. Valley Section, is peat-type soil not like anything on the Millennium Line. Plus, it went mostly though industrial land.

Originally Posted by Waders

Both CTV news and Straight mention the cost is $2.6 billion, not $2.9 billion. Where did the media get the number?

My guess? Discounting inflation from the previously assumed later date. If we build it out to Langley ASAP, we can save a non-insignificant amount of cash.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

We could probably get, for example, Willowbrook Mall for higher density than currently planned, or raise fees from developers (sort of like what is being done near Capstan Way). Thus, removing all the station costs (assuming a $30 million dollar cost, rounded up from (http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/capst...-richmond-2017), you still get only $240 Million.

Assuming the new $2.6 B cost is correct, and you remove the 25% cost margin, and unload station costs onto the private sector, you get $1.71 B in cost. Not $1.6 B, but close, and plausible for Surrey and Langley to finance if no one else is willing to fund the cash gap.

You also risk some stations not being built if the private sector is unwilling to cover the costs, especially as RE prices are stagnating. Also, removing all cost margin leaves less room for cost overruns.

TL;DR: Doug might not actually be too far off with the cost estimates, if we get creative with financing, and cut the margins to 0.

Maybe.

Let's remember the Canada Line, people; in their infinite wisdom, the province decided to save half a billion and get it done in time for the Olympics, and we ended up with a clown car. Better to pay now than pay later.

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by fredinno

TL;DR: Doug might not actually be too far off with the cost estimates, if we get creative with financing, and cut the margins to 0.

Maybe.

That's it, you've got it!
I'm just ready to imagine everyone's disbelief when TransLink comes up with updated estimates (or when the line is complete) and they're so much lower.


The fact is every time a SkyTrain extension has been built in our region, refinements and adjustments have reduced the amount of contingency as more engineering work is confirmed, and often that contingency doesn't go entirely used. That was the case for Evergreen - the actual construction contract price was higher than they bid as a result of tunneling issues, but the contingency wasn't entirely used, resulting in a lower final price than the original $1.4 billion budget. I actually have the before/after budget breakdowns in PDFs confirming this for both the Evergreen Extension and the original Millennium Line saved, I'll be putting them together on my blog soon but I'd like to focus on addressing the whole Fleetwood vs Newton debate first.

[Bombaman]

McNut is either a liar, delusional, or suffer from dementia. Having him as Surrey's Mayor tell you a lot about the Surrey voters, most of them are uneducated. Sadly, many people on this forum are also pro-McNut. 'Vary greatly from truth': Surrey mayor's false statements mounting

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

24/7 construction to "save money". WTF is he smoking?

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Bombaman

McNut is either a liar, delusional, or suffer from dementia. Having him as Surrey's Mayor tell you a lot about the Surrey voters, most of them are uneducated. Sadly, many people on this forum are also pro-McNut. 'Vary greatly from truth': Surrey mayor's false statements mounting

Nah, most people on the Vancouver TRANSIT forum are pro-skytrain because it's a proven technology that we ALREADY USE. Safe, reliable, fast, goes to places people actually want to go, etc.

Every time a LRT or Streetcar proposal is brought up, the politicians don't think 30 years out, they don't think beyond their mandate. Hence why the entire Millenium line didn't get built originally (three phases remember?), hence why the Canada Line was rushed for the Olympics, etc.

It's never been about picking the technology itself, it's about having an integrated system that has the least obstacles to it's use, and highest frequency. The system is automated, I can take the Skytrain from Metrotown to Production Way, King George, or Waterfront, or any station in between, and not have to hop on a bus. If I want to get to the Airport, I switch to the Canada Line at Waterfront, if I want to get to the Ferry I take the same Canada Line to Bridgeport and then take the 620. If I want to go to Seattle, I can get off the Skytrain at Main street and take the Amtrak.

If the system had drivers, there would be accidents, frequently. There would be strike action from unions. If it was all at grade, then it would have hundreds of accidents per month from tresspassing alone, not to mention collisions and entire vehicle write-offs from car-LRV accidents.

Now I doubt McCallum understands, or even cares about any of that. He saw a good way to win, and that was by killing the LRT project, and if that's why Surrey voted for him, then that was the will of the people of Surrey, and that was a smart move. One can make the same argument about voting the NDP back in, the kids don't remember what it was like living under the NDP before, and there's still no Uber. Politicians over-promise during election time, and that's the only time any big-ticket item will ever be put on the ballot by voting for someone. You never see these projects proposed outside of election time, and when they happen (Remember the Fast Ferry Fiasco, the Surrey LRT would be oh so much worse) those that take power take great joy in destroying the vanity project.