Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[misher]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

So you want people to live in things that aren't designed for permanent human inhabitation? That sounds real cheap and efficient.

If you've ever used a temporary seacan office, they're drafty as all hell. I've had one office that couldn't get above -2 °C when it was -35 °C outside at the mine I was working at because the heating couldn't keep up. RVs similarly aren't known for being warm places to live. They are however known for not having sewage hookups, or power.

Dorms in a university generally don't have a kitchen, although some recent ones have bathrooms. The thing to consider is that dorms generally have a cafeteria. Do you really want to have to provide a cafeteria for grown ass adults or do you just want them to cook for themselves. The alternative is having a bunch of poor people eating fast food all the time, which more expensive and a huge liability for the healthcare system which society also pays for.




I have to say your idea of "luxury" is quite perverse. 220 sq.ft. is about as small of a space as you can fit a bathroom, kitchenette and bed in. People living in subsidized housing should live in buildings that meet the building code, not some halfassed shanty. Did you grow-up living a cardboard box or something, resentful of people living in slightly better cardboard boxes?

You fail to address two things. One is that modular housing is also not designed for permanent human habitation. The second isnthat we have limited funding so is it your argument that we should screw the majority to provide a minority with luxury?

And btw I’ve lived in a 180sqft studio before. It’s actually pretty nice. Tv couch bed mini fridge own washroom closet etc. Many major cities in the world 200sqft is normal. I miss that condo so much and believe me when I say girls loved it. Why can’t we go smaller and house more people? I’d rather help 1200 and drop standards then help 600.


PS: communal kitchens used to be all the rage with the left wing what changed?

[Alex Mackinnon]

Communal kitchens for people who aren't used to being housed is a recipe for disaster. It would simply be dumping ground for dishes and food that would quickly become less than useful. That kind of thing needs ownership and structure.

If you were housed and had 10 people that you didn't choose to live, how would you deal with someone stealing food from you or not cleaning up after themselves? You have essentially no recourse. It's far easier just to let the people who are functional function, and make sure the remainder don't screw the rest over.

I've had up to 10 room mates before, and currently have 4. That housing strategy can be super effective, but only if you have people who respect common space, are invested in a community, and if those people are comfortable with one another.

You can keep a modular structure around for as long as some non-modular ones last. I'd much prefer that these buildings not be modular at all, and instead be something like a commie block. Cheap, basic and durable construction with permanence in mind. With the amount of market housing construction ongoing, the costs traditional construction are hugely inflated currently. Modular gets put more units built in a given political cycle for the amount spent.

You also seem to think BC is poor for some reason, it's not. The money is just being pissed away on inflating the price of a fixed number of assets. Vancouver is the most asset rich city in the Country which also happens to have the wealthiest middle class on the planet. We're not poor.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Vin

Remember fear of the doom and gloom in 2008? Housing sales numbers started dwindling and prices even tumbled for many areas. Lasted for about a year or two. This time round, if most people believe that many of the properties are held by speculators, there is no way people will let go of them at discounted prices. They would just wait for the opportunity to resell. As for newer condos, it seems that many are still selling like hot cakes. Therefore I don't believe that a crash will happen here.

The government made a knee-jerk reaction to what's happening here due to the voices of the people, but it only serves to increase the government coffers: most ordinary folks still can't afford SFHs pretty much anywhere in Vancouver.

Well, at least we are getting a lot more modular housing: so it does benefit certain segment of the society.

Except it WAS doom and gloom. The Feds (both the Fed. Reserve and the Fed. Gov) dumped cash into every crack in the market in order to keep investors calm after Lehman Bros. Not only that, bailout and stimulus packages were given out all over the world to encourage spending and create jobs.


Interest rates were cut to 0 (and sometimes negative- imagine that, getting into debt to get money! ).


It wasn't also Armageddon in the housing (and world economy) because China wasn't that impacted by the crisis, so Chinese investors started to pick up the slack.


Guess where investment funds are drying up?

Also, a recession is supposed to be overdue.




House prices going down 50% would still be above the 30-y median. That's how insane the markets are right now.


I'm not saying that there is going to be hell coming up, what I'm saying is that dismissing a the possibility of a market crash should not be waved aside as impossible.

I've joked about a market crash in the past, but I've changed my opinion; this may actually be a real possibility if things hit the fan.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by fredinno

I'm not saying that there is going to be hell coming up, what I'm saying is that dismissing a the possibility of a market crash should not be waved aside as impossible.

I've joked about a market crash in the past, but I've changed my opinion; this may actually be a real possibility if things hit the fan.

Basically we have a city/province/country that is getting more and more expensive every year, a generation unable to afford housing, tax-payers and people who actually work are being taxed to death left and right, business owners will also be double-taxed in 2019 due to it being a transition year where a lot of employers will be paying both MSP and a Health Tax (look it up if you don't believe me). Combine those factors with a minimum wage that is set to jump significantly over the next two years, carbon tax, a retiring generation (that had it really good), Millennials that don't vote, and we have a recipe for economic disaster.

And I'm only scratching the surface.

You might not be saying that hell is coming up but we are sure knocking on hell's door right now. And I agree with everything else you said.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by scryer

Basically we have a city/province/country that is getting more and more expensive every year, a generation unable to afford housing, tax-payers and people who actually work are being taxed to death left and right, business owners will also be double-taxed in 2019 due to it being a transition year where a lot of employers will be paying both MSP and a Health Tax (look it up if you don't believe me). Combine those factors with a minimum wage that is set to jump significantly over the next two years, carbon tax, a retiring generation (that had it really good), Millennials that don't vote, and we have a recipe for economic disaster.

And I'm only scratching the surface.

You might not be saying that hell is coming up but we are sure knocking on hell's door right now. And I agree with everything else you said.

There is this, though: http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-ec...rm-canada-2018

New projections from the Economic Forecast Council (EFC) show that British Columbia’s strong economy will outperform Canada over the next three years, the province’s finance minister announced this week.

It's from the BC government, so take it with a grain of salt.

On the flip side, office demand is also soaring, with new offices pretty much being pre-leased as soon as they're being opened. Part of it might have to do with the empty home tax moving speculators into other RE sectors, but it's not like these new buildings are opening empty either.

The Carbon tax was always around, as well.

[Changing City]

[QUOTE=misher;8401035]Housing starts are way down. Hope it’s a blip or we’re going to have another crisis in a decade. QUOTE]

They're not. The most up-to-date numbers from CMHC are for the first 10 months of the year (to the end of October). They show 19,538 housing starts in 2018, compared to 20,927 in the first 10 months of 2017. There were 23,109 starts in the first 10 months of 2016, and 17,325 in the same period of 2015, and 15,873 in 2014. So they're very slightly down this year compared to last year, but more were started than three or four years ago.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by fredinno

There is this, though: http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-ec...rm-canada-2018


The Carbon tax was always around, as well.

This article vaguely, and I mean vaguely, explains how the economy is growing.

“By making historic investments in child care and finally tackling the housing crisis, we are helping to ensure people benefit from long-term economic growth in every community in our province,” James said. “These investments are paying dividends and I thank the Economic Forecast Council members for their advice as we continue building a strong and sustainable economy that works for everyone.”

I quoted this from the article to illustrate that the article doesn't get into the details on what investments were made (and trust me, mothafucking child care isn't it growing BC's economy) or what specific measures provincially or federally have been made to tackle the housing crisis. Excuse my retard but did I miss page 2 of the article? Because I'm not buying any of this crock of shit that the finance minister has said.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by scryer

This article vaguely, and I mean vaguely, explains how the economy is growing.




I quoted this from the article to illustrate that the article doesn't get into the details on what investments were made (and trust me, mothafucking child care isn't it growing BC's economy) or what specific measures provincially or federally have been made to tackle the housing crisis. Excuse my retard but did I miss page 2 of the article? Because I'm not buying any of this crock of shit that the finance minister has said.

take it with a grain of salt

What did I say?

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by scryer

This article vaguely, and I mean vaguely, explains how the economy is growing.

I quoted this from the article to illustrate that the article doesn't get into the details on what investments were made (and trust me, mothafucking child care isn't it growing BC's economy) or what specific measures provincially or federally have been made to tackle the housing crisis. Excuse my retard but did I miss page 2 of the article? Because I'm not buying any of this crock of shit that the finance minister has said.

So, you seem to think that getting women back to work after making a kid doesn't grow the economy? That's the very definition of growing the economy. You are literally increasing workforce participation by doing this.

Holy crap.

[fredinno]

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/comme...-third-quarter

The commercial property sector of Metro Vancouver’s real estate market is also experiencing a downturn in sales.
According to data released by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver today, sales fell by 19.5% to 565 commercial sales in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the same period last year when there were 702 sales.
During this period, compared to the same quarter in 2017, sales of land zoned for commercial uses plummeted by 34.8% from 305 to 199 sales, and industrial land sales decreased by 12.6% from 135 to 118 sales.
Multi-family land sales also dropped by 17.4% from 23 sales to 19 sales. Such sites are qualified as properties for nursing homes, high rises, low rises, and any condominium or townhome property with four or more units with at least one zoned for commercial use.
However, office and retail spaces faired far better, with a relatively slight decrease of 4.2% from 239 sales to 229 sales.
Despite the significant overall drop in the number of commercial real estate sales, the total combined value of the deals only fell by 0.9% — from $3.938 billion in the third quarter of 2017 to $3.903 billion in the third quarter of 2018. Property values across all commercial real estate categories continue to rise disproportionately, despite the falling demand.
The vast majority of the sale activity in this year’s third quarter was from land ($2.356 billion) and office and retail ($1.377 billion).
According to Colliers International’s data, downtown Vancouver’s office vacancy narrowed to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018 from 4.6% at the start of the year.
And earlier this year, the vacancy for industrial spaces was sitting at less than 2%. In the first quarter of 2018, the region saw a year-over-year 29.1% increase for industrial spaces, making it the largest increase in the world for these type of spaces.

[s211]

Originally Posted by fredinno

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/comme...-third-quarter

Commercial real estate activity is exceptionally lumpy, so trying to derive any market trends over short periods of time is almost always impossible.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

So, you seem to think that getting women back to work after making a kid doesn't grow the economy? That's the very definition of growing the economy. You are literally increasing workforce participation by doing this.

Holy crap.

Quote me where I said that, idiot. I'll wait for the PM.

To provide more clarification, since you read what you want to read: babysitting services are not going solely to save BC's economy.

I see a recurring theme on these forums these days where folks think that a complicated problem has a simple solution. That is not the case; it is unfortunately going to take several solutions and reactions to tackle the real estate problem. The provincial economy, construction costs, and a non-voting generation are all some of the contributing to the situation.

What did I say?

Baby girl, taking the article in with a grain of salt is very different from attempting to digest a writing piece that's quite blatantly full of shit. Not that I'm blaming the writer but the piece just serves to highlight, to me, that the BC government has no clue how to communicate an effective strategy (and maybe they're not ready to yet). In fact that article could have been scrapped; it seemed like a pathetic attempt to reassure a nervous public. I appreciate you bringing articles and statistics to the discussion but writing condescending replies is a waste of your time and it should be reserved for folks who are willing to absorb it without giving it meaningful thought. You've made better posts in the past.

And with that, /logout.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by scryer

Quote me where I said that, idiot. I'll wait for the PM.

To provide more clarification, since you read what you want to read: babysitting services are not going solely to save BC's economy.

Dude, this is literally what you posted:

Originally Posted by scryer

I quoted this from the article to illustrate that the article doesn't get into the details on what investments were made (and trust me, mothafucking child care isn't it growing BC's economy)

As Alex points out, child care is a huge positive to the economy. We have Quebec's program to study. But just like our own carbon tax example, certain blind partisans in this country refuse to believe either is workable.

I'll await your suspension, if we truly have a level playing field here...

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

As Alex points out, child care is a huge positive to the economy. We have Quebec's program to study. But just like our own carbon tax example, certain blind partisans in this country refuse to believe either is workable.

Personally I think childcare issues are a cultural thing. It's only in American culture that the parents/family does not care for the kids while the parents are at work. Its ridiculous how distant parents and children are in American culture. Seniors are basically useless in American culture and in Asian/Latin American/European/Africa culture they take care of childcare, cooking, and cleaning.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by scryer

Quote me where I said that, idiot. I'll wait for the PM.

To provide more clarification, since you read what you want to read: babysitting services are not going solely to save BC's economy.

Originally Posted by scryer

(and trust me, mothafucking child care isn't it growing BC's economy)

How's that? It seems pretty blunt.

Like I said, maintaining labour force participation through child rearing is obviously growing the economy. Maybe not a lot, but it's pretty obvious how it works.

Women make up, what 60-70% of university attendants now? If they have kids, you're pulling some of your highest trained demographics right back out of the workforce after you train them.

Hypothetically, if my partner was taking time off after Maternity Leave, and sacrifices say $60K in income (because child care isn't available) then that's money leaving the formal economy and a drop in workforce participation.

If child care becomes available for say, $5K a year, and we decide that we can both work full time, that's $60K back into the formal economy, and $55K back into our income. Bingo, growth, spending etc.

The best part of this is also that someone with a whole bunch of schooling/training/specialization keeps getting experience and growing their career for that entire period, so the growth compounds. Lets say instead of 3 years of part time work, somebody who's making $60K/yr gets 4% in wage increases each year instead of just 2% for inflation. Because they're more experienced and their resume says they now have more experience, then every year thereafter for their whole career they're worth 6% more. That person suddenly has a GDP of +6% for the rest of their life.

Math.

[Krissy]

Sometimes I wonder if scryer and vin are the same person

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Personally I think childcare issues are a cultural thing. It's only in American culture that the parents/family does not care for the kids while the parents are at work. Its ridiculous how distant parents and children are in American culture. Seniors are basically useless in American culture and in Asian/Latin American/European/Africa culture they take care of childcare, cooking, and cleaning.

The only cultures I've seen that still live in multi-generational family homes, where older relatives take care of the smaller children, is those from developing countries.

Developed countries based on free market capitalism, are more inclined to have all adults out working, children sometimes being taken of by a stay-at-home parent.

I'm not going to call one better than the other, but it is what it is. We've built ourselves into a society where we need more than one working parent.

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The only cultures I've seen that still live in multi-generational family homes, where older relatives take care of the smaller children, is those from developing countries.

Developed countries based on free market capitalism, are more inclined to have all adults out working, children sometimes being taken of by a stay-at-home parent.

I'm not going to call one better than the other, but it is what it is. We've built ourselves into a society where we need more than one working parent.

This is common in Europe, China and Mexico.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

This is common in Europe, China and Mexico.

Haven't seen it in Western Europe but I'm happy to be corrected.

Sorry, don't consider Mexico or China developed.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The only cultures I've seen that still live in multi-generational family homes, where older relatives take care of the smaller children, is those from developing countries.

Developed countries based on free market capitalism, are more inclined to have all adults out working, children sometimes being taken of by a stay-at-home parent.

I'm not going to call one better than the other, but it is what it is. We've built ourselves into a society where we need more than one working parent.

No. This is only an Anglo-Nordic norm. Unless you count Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain among others as "developing" countries.