The Conservative Party under Andrew Scheer

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

So if Canada gets owned by the Americans during the NAFTA renegotiations are you going to blame the Conservatives? Of course it's the Liberals' fault! Same goes for the climate pact. If your biggest trading partner is playing by different rules that give them an advantage why wouldn't you? If America drops out so will other nations and we would be wise to follow suit.

Where did I say anything about anyone wanting to be like Trump?

If one could identify how the outcomes for Canada of NAFTA renegotiation might differ according to whether we have a Liberal or a Conservative Administration, one could win a prize.

I think even partisans have to admit that this Government has not (yet?) set a foot wrong in dealing with the Trump Administration or in preparing for NAFTA renegotiation. The outcomes cannot be predicted, but istm that we will go into the negotiations as well prepared as it is possible to be.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

A lot can happen in two years. If Trump pulls America out of the climate change pact and Justin keeps us in that will not be good for ON. Then there's the NAFTA renegotiations which could end in disaster for a lot of places in Canada. If that happens the Liberals will be punished. Xi Jinping could do a lot of damage to BC's economy tomorrow just by restricting the flow of cash out of China.

Not really. Only a very small part of Ontario's economy is both carbon-sensitive and trade-exposed, and most of the growth sectors are fairly low--carbon. In any case by the end of this year the majority of the world's GDP will in jurisidictions with carbon pricing, and on top of that there's so many economic opportunities in clean tech (I mean, in the USA there are now more solar jobs than coal jobs, for example), that the old adage of climate action being bad for the economy really isn't true anymore.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

If one could identify how the outcomes for Canada of NAFTA renegotiation might differ according to whether we have a Liberal or a Conservative Administration, one could win a prize.

I think even partisans have to admit that this Government has not (yet?) set a foot wrong in dealing with the Trump Administration or in preparing for NAFTA renegotiation. The outcomes cannot be predicted, but istm that we will go into the negotiations as well prepared as it is possible to be.

Who picks the negotiators? Is it cabinet or people who actually know what they're doing? If there's any political element to it then we have reason to worry, especially after today. I also hope Mexico comes well prepared. The best case scenario for all three nations might be if this takes awhile and the midterm elections become a factor. If Wilbur and Trump are being totally unreasonable it's very likely a lot of Republicans in Congress will either turn on them or distance themselves. The agreement has to be updated but my fear is the radical side advising Trump is winning the internal battles and God only knows what they want other than everything to be W-L-L for them.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Not really. Only a very small part of Ontario's economy is both carbon-sensitive and trade-exposed, and most of the growth sectors are fairly low--carbon. In any case by the end of this year the majority of the world's GDP will in jurisidictions with carbon pricing, and on top of that there's so many economic opportunities in clean tech (I mean, in the USA there are now more solar jobs than coal jobs, for example), that the old adage of climate action being bad for the economy really isn't true anymore.

Why are you linking the two things? Ontario's economy is very export reliant--the carbon intensity of that trade isn't a factor in the NAFTA renegotiations.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Who picks the negotiators? Is it cabinet or people who actually know what they're doing? If there's any political element to it then we have reason to worry, especially after today. I also hope Mexico comes well prepared. The best case scenario for all three nations might be if this takes awhile and the midterm elections become a factor. If Wilbur and Trump are being totally unreasonable it's very likely a lot of Republicans in Congress will either turn on them or distance themselves. The agreement has to be updated but my fear is the radical side advising Trump is winning the internal battles and God only knows what they want other than everything to be W-L-L for them.

Canada's Chief Trade Negotiator is a career civil servant rather than an OinC appointee*. He reports to the Minister (two Ministers in the case of NAFTA, I believe) who in turn report to Cabinet. You do not get appointed to a position of that level in the Government of Canada without the OK of the responsible Ministers and the PM. Who picks the Chief Trade Negotiator? Well, he was first appointed in 2009 and was chief negotiator for CETA, so I'll let you do the math. He was appointed for the NAFTA renegotiation by this Government. As we saw in the case of CETA, direct involvement by Ministers is possible.

*although there's nothing to prevent it being an OinC appointment - I think Mulroney brought Simon Weisman back that way for the Canada-U.S. FTA.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

So if Canada gets owned by the Americans during the NAFTA renegotiations are you going to blame the Conservatives? Of course it's the Liberals' fault! Same goes for the climate pact. If your biggest trading partner is playing by different rules that give them an advantage why wouldn't you? If America drops out so will other nations and we would be wise to follow suit.

Where did I say anything about anyone wanting to be like Trump?

Canada won't get "owned" in the NAFTA negotiations. Some of the things in it need to be updated for today's economies and technology. But Canada won't just agree with anything the U.S. proposes.

How is the U.S. leaving the climate change agreement going to benefit their country in the long run? It will create an uneasy economic environment as many countries and companies will want to pull away from those who are not helping to solve the problems. I think that Canada will actually benefit economically due to Trump's decision.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Canada won't get "owned" in the NAFTA negotiations. Some of the things in it need to be updated for today's economies and technology. But Canada won't just agree with anything the U.S. proposes.

How is the U.S. leaving the climate change agreement going to benefit their country in the long run? It will create an uneasy economic environment as many countries and companies will want to pull away from those who are not helping to solve the problems. I think that Canada will actually benefit economically due to Trump's decision.

No one is denying that NAFTA needs to be updated. What makes you so confident that Canada won't get screwed over? Yes, we don't have to agree to anything but if the deal is scrapped my understanding is that the high tariffs of the past will come back and that will hurt us a lot more than them. I'm also worried that the Liberals will sacrifice certain industries and areas of the country to protect others.

A number of companies have already stated they're not happy with Trump pulling out of the accord but there's probably a lot who are secretly very happy. It won't take long before economic concerns trump everything else which is why I think other nations will follow Trump out of the accord. I know people are laughing at him now because the only other countries not part of the deal are Syria and Nicaragua but being part of the deal and actually following it are two different things. China's not going to make serious moves to cut their emissions until 2030 and I don't think India is all that committed either. If countries don't drop out they'll cheat. If that happens and Canada is still following the agreement it will be the downfall of Justin.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

No one is denying that NAFTA needs to be updated. What makes you so confident that Canada won't get screwed over? Yes, we don't have to agree to anything but if the deal is scrapped my understanding is that the high tariffs of the past will come back and that will hurt us a lot more than them. I'm also worried that the Liberals will sacrifice certain industries and areas of the country to protect others.

A number of companies have already stated they're not happy with Trump pulling out of the accord but there's probably a lot who are secretly very happy. It won't take long before economic concerns trump everything else which is why I think other nations will follow Trump out of the accord. I know people are laughing at him now because the only other countries not part of the deal are Syria and Nicaragua but being part of the deal and actually following it are two different things. China's not going to make serious moves to cut their emissions until 2030 and I don't think India is all that committed either. If countries don't drop out they'll cheat. If that happens and Canada is still following the agreement it will be the downfall of Justin.

I'm puzzled where you are coming from on NAFTA. One understands you don't like the Government, but what are you proposing? That Canada NOT engage in NAFTA renegotiation? I have trouble seeing how that could lead to a good result. The most likely outcome, to the extent any predictions are possible, will be a trade agreement that results in both wins and losses for Canada (like NAFTA itself), not all of which will be immediately apparent (remember how Canada's wine industry was going to disappear under free trade?).

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'm puzzled where you are coming from on NAFTA. One understands you don't like the Government, but what are you proposing? That Canada NOT engage in NAFTA renegotiation? I have trouble seeing how that could lead to a good result. The most likely outcome, to the extent any predictions are possible, will be a trade agreement that results in both wins and losses for Canada (like NAFTA itself), not all of which will be immediately apparent (remember how Canada's wine industry was going to disappear under free trade?).

Where did I say or imply that we shouldn't engage in renegotiation? We don't have any other option other than dropping out of NAFTA completely which would be a complete disaster. All I'm saying is that people shouldn't assume that everything will be fine because it worked out okay the last time. There are too many unknowns this time to have much confidence in what the outcome will be as far as I'm concerned.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Anti Trans rights?

Nope, Can't support you.