Alberta Population Growth

[Chadillaccc]

Amazing numbers for the West, particularly Alberta, year over year!



Interprovincial Migration


AB: 28 921
BC: 12 413
PE: -1 243
NS: -1 286
NL: -1 398
NB: -2 800
SK: -3 200
MB: -7 759
ON: -8 763
QC: -14 656

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-...0/t251-eng.pdf




International Migration


ON - 89 338
PQ - 45 356
AB - 39 429
BC - 31 501
MB - 14 713
SK - 11 325

Canada Total - 239 779 (down from 267 779 previous year)

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-...0/t242-eng.pdf

[Chadillaccc]

The Alberta Government just released their most recent population projections. Between 2015 and 2041 (26 years) Alberta's population will grow by 2.1 million (medium scenario) to a population of 6.2 million.

The regional breakdown for major centres is thus...

Calgary (CD 6) - Current: 1,511,767 | Projected: 2,420,420
Edmonton (CD 11) - Current: 1,371,307 | Projected: 2,143,850
Red Deer (CD 8) - Current: 212,326 | Projected: 333,570
Lethbridge (CD 2) - Current: 170,736 | Projected: 240,325
Grande Prarie (CD 19) - Current: 123,231 | Projected: 189,780
Camrose (CD 10) - Current: 99,837 | Projected: 128,610
Medicine Hat (CD 1) - Current: 84,216 | Projected: 115,690

Current estimates are from July 1, 2014.


The population densities of CD's 6 and 11 will increase to 191/km2 and 136/km2 respectively, up from 104/km2 and 79/km2 currently.


http://finance.alberta.ca/aboutalber...ons/index.html

[dmuzika]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

The Alberta Government just released their most recent population projections. Between 2015 and 2041 (26 years) Alberta's population will grow by 2.1 million (medium scenario) to a population of 6.2 million.

The regional breakdown for major centres is thus...

Calgary (CD 6) - Current: 1,511,767 | Projected: 2,420,420
Edmonton (CD 11) - Current: 1,371,307 | Projected: 2,143,850
Red Deer (CD 8) - Current: 212,326 | Projected: 333,570
Lethbridge (CD 2) - Current: 170,736 | Projected: 240,325
Grande Prarie (CD 19) - Current: 123,231 | Projected: 189,780
Camrose (CD 10) - Current: 99,837 | Projected: 128,610
Medicine Hat (CD 1) - Current: 84,216 | Projected: 115,690

Current estimates are from July 1, 2014.


The population densities of CD's 6 and 11 will increase to 191/km2 and 136/km2 respectively, up from 104/km2 and 79/km2 currently.


http://finance.alberta.ca/aboutalber...ons/index.html

CD 10 is a little misleading as it includes Camrose, Vegreville, and Lloydminster, so basically Camrose County, Beaver County (Tofield-Viking), and all of Hwy 16 east of Elk Island National Park. The population of any individual population centre is much less.

Fort McMurray (CD 16) - Current: 80,502 | Projected: 99,475

[Chadillaccc]

That is true, I was just going by the largest city/town in each district. I didn't have Wood Buffalo in the list because it won't hit 100 000 even in the medium growth scenario.

What the list I formulated basically dictates, is that by 2041, Alberta will have two cities over 2 million people (Calgary and Edmonton), one with over 200 000 (future Red Deer CMA), and three cities over 100 000 (future Lethbridge, Grande Prairie, and Medicine Hat CMAs). The municipality of Calgary alone is likely to have 2 million in this scenario.

[DizzyEdge]

This is just a bit of fantasy projecting, but if Airdrie continued its recent growth rate, and so did other cities in AB, it would surpass Medicine Hat and Grand Prarie in population by 2017, and surpass Lethbridge and Red Deer by 2025.

[itom 987]

...and it still wouldn't have a skyscraper.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by itom 987

...and it still wouldn't have a skyscraper.

ugh! I know. Even St. Albert has a proposal for a 4-tower highrise project, yet Airdrie doesn't have a single building over 6 storeys. Hopefully it'll happen sooner than later. Airdrie's "downtown" area is actually ripe for redevelopment. That crappy mall, with a ravine bordered by high density condos to the west, could probably be redeveloped into some modest sized towers with relative ease. Of course there will be Nimby's, but that is Airdrie's best chance at ever having an actual downtown and/or skyline.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

ugh! I know. Even St. Albert has a proposal for a 4-tower highrise project, yet Airdrie doesn't have a single building over 6 storeys. Hopefully it'll happen sooner than later. Airdrie's "downtown" area is actually ripe for redevelopment. That crappy mall, with a ravine bordered by high density condos to the west, could probably be redeveloped into some modest sized towers with relative ease. Of course there will be Nimby's, but that is Airdrie's best chance at ever having an actual downtown and/or skyline.

100%, I like to make fun about how I'd rather go to Nanton than Airdrie (which is true), but that's primarily because Nanton actually has a more distinct downtown with a distinct character than Airdrie does, even though it's only 2 or 3% the size of Airdrie. They need to do some hardcore redevelopment from Ridgegate Way to Centre Ave on Main St, and fill in the gaps between Centre Ave and 1st Ave NW.

[RWin]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

This is just a bit of fantasy projecting, but if Airdrie continued its recent growth rate, and so did other cities in AB, it would surpass Medicine Hat and Grand Prarie in population by 2017, and surpass Lethbridge and Red Deer by 2025.

Airdrie is basically a neighbourhood of Calgary that happens to have it's own political boundaries. Of course back in the day it was a long way from Calgary but these days it is to Calgary almost what Surrey is to Vancouver (or Burnaby or New Westminster).

In my mind talking about Airdrie is like talking about Coventry Hills so a population increase there is really a population increase in the greater Calgary area. And therefore isn't really competing with Red Deer, Lethbridge, etc. in the size competition.

It annoys me when our Vancouver people talk about how dense Vancouver is and forget to mention how much empty space there is between Horseshoe Bay and Abbotsford (or even Chilliwack).

A city is more than just political boundaries.

[Boris2k7]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

100%, I like to make fun about how I'd rather go to Nanton than Airdrie (which is true), but that's primarily because Nanton actually has a more distinct downtown with a distinct character than Airdrie does, even though it's only 2 or 3% the size of Airdrie. They need to do some hardcore redevelopment from Ridgegate Way to Centre Ave on Main St, and fill in the gaps between Centre Ave and 1st Ave NW.

Similar thing with Lacombe and Wetaskiwin (12,000-13,000).

Lacombe by RemotelyBoris, on Flickr


Lacombe Flatiron by RemotelyBoris, on Flickr


Ugly's by RemotelyBoris, on Flickr

[DizzyEdge]

Yeah exactly. One reason for the difference between a Lacombe and an Airdrie, is during the 19-teens when those character buildings were being built, Lacombe had a population of over 1000, and Airdrie had about 150 people, not even a village.

Eg, Airdrie 1950s

[DizzyEdge]

Okotoks was similarly not much more than a rail siding like Airdrie, but they seem to have somehow retained almost every historic building ever built there, so they do have a tiny character downtown.

[Chadillaccc]

I wonder what the census will determine for Alberta's population next year? It was off by nearly 150 000 for us in the last census, the 2nd largest error of all the provinces. Next year we'll be approximately 4.25 million, so it'll be interesting to see if the restoration of the long form census will reflect a more accurate result.

[Chadillaccc]

The latest quarterly population growth report is in...

Alberta is now at 4 196 457 people, a growth of 21 000 people in 3 months The gap between Alberta and BC has now shrunk nearly another 10 000, to 486 682.

[Chadillaccc]

The Q3 2015 numbers are in and Alberta grew by another 20,418 people. We've now surpassed 4.2 million officially. With the forecast economic rebound next year, I'd say it looks like we could hit 4.3 million by Q4 of 2016.

[lubicon]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

The Q3 2015 numbers are in and Alberta grew by another 20,418 people. We've now surpassed 4.2 million officially. With the forecast economic rebound next year, I'd say it looks like we could hit 4.3 million by Q4 of 2016.

I have my doubts this is going to occur. Things are going to get worse before they get better I am afraid.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

That is true, I was just going by the largest city/town in each district. I didn't have Wood Buffalo in the list because it won't hit 100 000 even in the medium growth scenario.

The municipal census of Wood Buffalo for 2015 was over 125,000 people including the shadow population.

[Trans Canada]

MolsonExport was kind enough to link this in the Canada statistics thread:

Population Projection (Alberta) 2015-2041, Alberta Office of Statistics and Information - Demography, July 31 2015. (11 pages, pdf)


http://www.finance.alberta.ca/abouta...rojections.pdf

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/abouta...rojections.pdf

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/abouta...rojections.pdf

This paragraph gives a good overview of the near/medium term future:

Low oil prices have decreased energy investment in Alberta, slowing employment growth and wages, and increasing unemployment. Despite the current slowdown, Alberta continues to have the highest earnings among provinces, attracting people from other provinces. However, as the economy continues to react to the economic fallout from lower oil prices, net in‑flows of interprovincial migrants to Alberta are expected to fall. Based on robust year‑to‑date estimates, net interprovincial migration remains strong for 2015. As the economy adjusts, interprovincial migration is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2010 in 2016. When the province’s economic situation recovers, interprovincial migration is expected to strengthen, peaking between 2019 and 2020 before falling in line with historic norms.

[Chadillaccc]

Love that info Thanks man!

[Chadillaccc]

booop