High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program (USA)

[electricron]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

I thought most trains could carry 1000+?

Even Amtrak's new Acela trains will not even come close to carrying 1,000 passengers. Do you really believe Georgia will need a capacity that large for a HSR train? What they could carry and what they will need are not always the same number.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by electricron

Even Amtrak's new Acela trains will not even come close to carrying 1,000 passengers. Do you really believe Georgia will need a capacity that large for a HSR train? What they could carry and what they will need are not always the same number.

Just thought that was the typical length. I've always been led to believe NJT trains carry ~1500 when at full capacity. They sure as shit have more than 400.

[Nexis4Jersey]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Just thought that was the typical length. I've always been led to believe NJT trains carry ~1500 when at full capacity. They sure as shit have more than 400.

A 14 car double decker can carry around 1500 seating...during rush hr ive seen train after train depart Newark Penn completely full...

[electricron]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Just thought that was the typical length. I've always been led to believe NJT trains carry ~1500 when at full capacity. They sure as shit have more than 400.

NJT trains aren't HSR trains.
Here's the reported capacity of Amtrak's HSR train sets:
Acela = 304
Avelia Liberty = 450*
* = with a 12 car train sets, Amtrak ordered 9 car train sets.
Therefore the seating capacity will be relatively the same as the existing Acelas, around 300.

And I would agree that 300 seats is far less than 1,500 seats.

[M II A II R II K]

Support Grows for a Seattle to Vancouver Bullet Train

Read More: https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/sup...sability-study

PDF Report: https://nextcity.org/pdf/cascadia_highspeedrail.pdf

.....

With a coalition of tech millionaires and billionaires, politicians and investment groups behind the renewed push, it seems plausible high-speed rail could finally move from fantasy to reality in the Northwest. The idea is at least real enough that Washington Governor Jay Inslee put $1 million in his proposed budget to fund a feasibility study.

- Last September, a group of Northwest tech industry leaders, including Bill Gates and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, as well as elected officials and other business people held a conference in Vancouver to discuss how better to connect Seattle and Vancouver as their populations and economies boom. A high-speed rail corridor that would cut travel time between the cities down to just one hour was a centerpiece of the conference.

- A one hour trip on high-speed rail would be a game changer. Engineering consultants WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff presented a high-level report on the feasibility of the rail project. Trains in Europe and Asia can travel up to 250 mph. At those speeds, a train could get between Seattle and Vancouver in an hour including interim stops in Everett and Bellingham. But getting those speeds would require building new rail infrastructure from scratch.

- If successful, the report predicts the line would be extended to Portland and Eugene, Oregon, and eventually all the way to California’s high-speed rail line. A two-track rail corridor could support six to eight trains per hour, meaning someone could catch a train every 10 to 15 minutes. --- “It’s being proposed as a tech industry talent draw, but I think it could be much more than that,” says Ranganathan. “If it’s an hour to Vancouver, I’ll tell you people will get out of their cars. The number one reason people make a switch to transit is convenience and reliability.”

.....

[ChargerCarl]

That sounds really cool, but does the demand for that kind of service exist? How often do people travel between the two cities? I know very little about either one.

[Pavlov's Dog]

I would assume there would also be a stop in Surrey for connections in the Eastern Vancouver metro. It wouldn't make sense to have to backtrack from Vancouver.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

That sounds really cool, but does the demand for that kind of service exist? How often do people travel between the two cities? I know very little about either one.

Vancouver B.C. Is growing fast, but as fast as Seattle? I wonder what the data suggests?
Seattle's urban population in 1950 was 622,000, in 2010 it was 3,059,000; a 491% increase.
Vancouver metro population in 1950 was 556,000, in 2010 it was 2,310,000; a 415% increase.
It's 142 driving miles between Vancouver and Seattle, 77% in Washington and 23% in British Columbia. Are both state and providence willing to share the costs for both construction and operations of a HSR train?
What amount of traffic crosses the Peace Arch border crossing?
Between 3,500 passenger cars on a slow day to 4,800 passenger cars on a busy day. Assuming the us average of 1.61 passenger per vehicles (all vehicles for all purposes), that would make at most 7,728 passengers crossing the border every day. Weekday Sounder trains average more daily riders! If everyone of them took the high speed train, and the train held 300 passengers per train (Acela capacity), we could fill almost 26 trains. That's just 13 round trips.

http://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat..._WHYTRP1S.html

I'm not sure that's enough business to warrant building a brand new HSR train corridor and HSR train service considering there is already an existing Cascades train service.

[ardecila]

The biggest problem with cross-border train service is security and customs. If they can solve that problem, they could offer a conventional train service that was competitive.

[M II A II R II K]

Have all customs at the Vancouver Station which would work well if it were the only station in Canada.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

Have all customs at the Vancouver Station which would work well if it were the only station in Canada.

That could work only if the platform Amtrak uses is well isolated from the surround area, from where customs is located to the train itself. How isolated is that platform and the train when in Vancouver?
Otherwise, the best I think could happen is preclearance with papers, but not with the bags.

[Car(e)-Free LA]

Originally Posted by Pavlov's Dog

I would assume there would also be a stop in Surrey for connections in the Eastern Vancouver metro. It wouldn't make sense to have to backtrack from Vancouver.

I don't know. I can think of 4 primary routes:

West route--Bellingham to Vancouver via Richmond/YVR. Follows I-5 and BC99, but then requires a tunnel to downtown.

Central route--Bellingham to Vancouver via New Westminster. Follows I-5 to BC99, bending north at BC 91 and northeast through downtown New Westminster, before following the Millennium line to downtown

East route--Bellingham to Vancouver via Langley and Coquitlam. Follows I-5 to the border, bending due north in Blaine to Pitt Meadows, via Langley, then following the West Coast Express route into Vancouver

Far east route--Bellingham to Vancouver via Abbotsford and Coquitlam. Leaves Bellingham headed NNE to Abbotsford, then bends west following the West Coast Express to Vancouver via Coquitlam.

[JiminyCricket II]

Originally Posted by electricron

Vancouver B.C. Is growing fast, but as fast as Seattle? I wonder what the data suggests?
Seattle's urban population in 1950 was 622,000, in 2010 it was 3,059,000; a 491% increase.
Vancouver metro population in 1950 was 556,000, in 2010 it was 2,310,000; a 415% increase.
It's 142 driving miles between Vancouver and Seattle, 77% in Washington and 23% in British Columbia. Are both state and providence willing to share the costs for both construction and operations of a HSR train?
What amount of traffic crosses the Peace Arch border crossing?
Between 3,500 passenger cars on a slow day to 4,800 passenger cars on a busy day. Assuming the us average of 1.61 passenger per vehicles (all vehicles for all purposes), that would make at most 7,728 passengers crossing the border every day. Weekday Sounder trains average more daily riders! If everyone of them took the high speed train, and the train held 300 passengers per train (Acela capacity), we could fill almost 26 trains. That's just 13 round trips.

http://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat..._WHYTRP1S.html

I'm not sure that's enough business to warrant building a brand new HSR train corridor and HSR train service considering there is already an existing Cascades train service.

You are not factoring in flights between the two cities. I think that number is several hundred thousand a year. Maybe close to a million. Add whatever houndreds of thousands that currently ride the train between the cities, now we are talking a lot of commuting between the 3 transit modes.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by JiminyCricket II

You are not factoring in flights between the two cities. I think that number is several hundred thousand a year. Maybe close to a million. Add whatever houndreds of thousands that currently ride the train between the cities, now we are talking a lot of commuting between the 3 transit modes.

Good point which I'm going to dismiss off hand. Here's why. I included every daily vehicle on the busiest of days at the border crossing to reach the earlier number, not 50%, not 75%, not the slowest day nor the median (average day). There's no way the numbers of passengers flying or sailing is going to change whatever the real average HSR would ultimately attract.

Even if we took the time to find the flight numbers, we would then need to decide on market share averages choosing to ride the HSR train rather than those driving a car, sailing on a boat, riding the existing train, and flying. I thought it fair just and easier to just assume 100% of those driving less than 200 miles, which should be the largest market share by far today, would be the best highest estimation for the number of passengers HSR trains would ever attract.

A good site for finding ridership between Vancouver and Seattle by air
https://www.portseattle.org/Newsroom...rt-Basics.aspx

"International passengers: 4,380,346
Top international destinations ranked by scheduled flights:
66.63 percent Canada (Vancouver 29.3 percent, Calgary 12.3 percent, Victoria 8.91, Edmonton 5.28 percent, Kelowna 4.28 percent)"

Here's the math = 4,380,346 x .293 = 1,283,441
1,283,441 / 365 = 3,516 per day
This of course assumes all the flights have the same capacity - which they don't. It's very likely the Vancouver to Seattle flights are using smaller planes. It's also a daily average, not a maximum possible on the busiest days.

Have any idea how to figure out modal market share ratios?

[Pedestrian]

These 5 groups want to run California's high-speed rail system
Apr 5, 2017, 6:50am PDT Updated Apr 5, 2017, 7:52am PDT
Jody Meacham
Reporter, Silicon Valley Business Journal

Five groups of companies have entered the competition to operate California’s high-speed rail system, officials said on Tuesday.

The responses to the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s request for qualifications (RFQ) represent the first formal expressions of interest by commercial entities that will be expected to invest in the system as a requirement of becoming the “early train operator” of passenger service from San Jose down the San Joaquin Valley to near Bakersfield in 2025.

The consortia are based in China, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom — although three have U.S. participants — and each has a passenger rail operating company as one of its members . . . .

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfranci...817&j=77853621

[Centropolis]

anyone know what the status of chicago - st. louis high speed rail is? i've been watching trackwork in illinois progress, but the entire project seems behind and progress under-reported. the entire project was supposed to be done this year.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by electricron

That could work only if the platform Amtrak uses is well isolated from the surround area, from where customs is located to the train itself. How isolated is that platform and the train when in Vancouver?
Otherwise, the best I think could happen is preclearance with papers, but not with the bags.

That's how it is right now at Vancouver's Pacific Central station. Amtrak gets a track and platform that's fenced off with 10 foot tall chain link from the "rest of Canada", and you have to go through customs immediately before boarding the train. On the way back, the US customs counter becomes a Canadian customs counter.

Somewhat annoyingly, the train stops again going to the US at the border itself and they subject you to secondary inspection which lasts about 20 minutes. This isn't true in the reverse (i.e. going from the US to Canada).

Beside the border, the slowest parts of the train service between Seattle and Vancouver are arguably within Canada itself. Half of the four hour journey is spent going from Vancouver to Bellingham, which is about 55 miles away.

[Crawford]

Has anyone taken Amtrak between Portland and Seattle? Is it a decent route, without too many delays?

[emathias]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Has anyone taken Amtrak between Portland and Seattle? Is it a decent route, without too many delays?

It's pretty decent, popular and nice scenery.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Has anyone taken Amtrak between Portland and Seattle? Is it a decent route, without too many delays?

The scenery is beautiful, and runs mostly on time most of the year. But the route is subject to mudslides after a good rain. Mudslides don't cause delays, they cause cancellations. Good luck!