US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[the Genral]

Originally Posted by clubtokyo

They are building a crazy amount of new homes and master-plan neighborhoods in Manor, and that's Travis county I believe. Wasn't that like a cow town way back in the day?

Still is, with a huge landfill and flea market.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by drummer

Thanks for that, wwmiv. Since you and others are good at studying this kind of thing, what is the likelihood of significant growth in counties to the east or west of I-35? You mentioned some are "along for the ride" so I'm assuming that would be true for Burnet County, for example? I have some family out there, just curious.

Those counties that could reasonably be considered part of our economic sphere but not included within the four MSAs are simply treading water.

First things first, what counties are they? I base the following counties off of the research of Nelson and Rae, which considers the San Antonio to Waco corridor as a single economic megaregion given an algorithm applied to commuter interchange patterns between census tracts throughout the United States:

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0166083

Roughly, this corresponds to four groups of counties:

1. The Border (Maverick, Dimmit, Zavala, Frio, and Uvalde)

This area has shown pretty consistent slow growth from 50k in 1970 to almost 100k in 2016.

2. The Rural Hill Country (Real, San Saba, Llano, Mason, Blanco, and Kimble)

This collection of counties is where time stopped. They still have only 50k between all five of them. Most of the growth here occurred between 1990 and 2000, when all of 10k people moved in.

3. The mSA Hill Country (Burnet, Kerr, Gillespie, and Uvalde)

These are the only places that have seen signs of life. This collection of small towns (Kerrville, Marble Falls, Uvalde and Fredericksburg) has kept these counties from withering on the vine. Instead, they've grown from 59k in 1970 to 152k in 2016, with 8k of that growth being over the last 6 years.

4. The Eastern Rim (Milam, Lee, Fayette, and Gonzales)

Also a collection of counties that were mostly left behind. Milam, Fayette, and Gonzales have each gained 5k since 1970, whereas Lee has gained 10k.

All together, these areas have grown from 184,737 in 1970 to 353,135 in 2010. From there, the census estimates for these counties altogether have been:

2011: +2,024 to 355,159 (0.57%)
2012: +1,158 to 356,317 (0.33%)
2013: +2,267 to 358,584 (0.64%)
2014: +3,043 to 361,627 (0.85%)
2015: +3,957 to 365,584 (1.09%)
2016: +4,043 to 369,627 (1.11%)

[clubtokyo]

Originally Posted by the Genral

Still is, with a huge landfill and flea market.

Oh? I did not see any of that when I went to visit a friend. All I saw was new homes, neighborhoods, new shopping and a really nice golf course.

[sammyk]

Originally Posted by clubtokyo

Oh? I did not see any of that when I went to visit a friend. All I saw was new homes, neighborhoods, new shopping and a really nice golf course.

The landfill and flea market are on the west side of 130 which I don't think is considered Manor.

[clubtokyo]

Originally Posted by sammyk

The landfill and flea market are on the west side of 130 which I don't think is considered Manor.

Yup just looked those up, they have Austin addresses. Not Manor.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by clubtokyo

Yup just looked those up, they have Austin addresses. Not Manor.

You can't tell by the address because the address is based on the location of the federal post office that serves the site. There are parts of Dripping Springs ETJ that have an Austin address.


However, I believe the area you are talking about is Austin. You can tell with this map: http://www.austintexas.gov/GIS/JurisdictionsWebMap/

[drummer]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Those counties that could reasonably be considered part of our economic sphere but not included within the four MSAs are simply treading water.

First things first, what counties are they? I base the following counties off of the research of Nelson and Rae, which considers the San Antonio to Waco corridor as a single economic megaregion given an algorithm applied to commuter interchange patterns between census tracts throughout the United States:

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0166083

Roughly, this corresponds to four groups of counties:

1. The Border (Maverick, Dimmit, Zavala, Frio, and Uvalde)

This area has shown pretty consistent slow growth from 50k in 1970 to almost 100k in 2016.

2. The Rural Hill Country (Real, San Saba, Llano, Mason, Blanco, and Kimble)

This collection of counties is where time stopped. They still have only 50k between all five of them. Most of the growth here occurred between 1990 and 2000, when all of 10k people moved in.

3. The mSA Hill Country (Burnet, Kerr, Gillespie, and Uvalde)

These are the only places that have seen signs of life. This collection of small towns (Kerrville, Marble Falls, Uvalde and Fredericksburg) has kept these counties from withering on the vine. Instead, they've grown from 59k in 1970 to 152k in 2016, with 8k of that growth being over the last 6 years.

4. The Eastern Rim (Milam, Lee, Fayette, and Gonzales)

Also a collection of counties that were mostly left behind. Milam, Fayette, and Gonzales have each gained 5k since 1970, whereas Lee has gained 10k.

All together, these areas have grown from 184,737 in 1970 to 353,135 in 2010. From there, the census estimates for these counties altogether have been:

2011: +2,024 to 355,159 (0.57%)
2012: +1,158 to 356,317 (0.33%)
2013: +2,267 to 358,584 (0.64%)
2014: +3,043 to 361,627 (0.85%)
2015: +3,957 to 365,584 (1.09%)
2016: +4,043 to 369,627 (1.11%)

Great info, thanks. I've always been curious about the 281 corridor specifically. I wonder if Blanco County will always be so far behind or if it will eventually ride on the coattails of Bexar/Comal along 281 and Western Travis and Southern Burnet Counties.

[abigdeal]

Originally Posted by sammyk

The landfill and flea market are on the west side of 130 which I don't think is considered Manor.

I used to live near those landfills and we had a Manor mailing address, even though we were in the city of Austin. We petitioned the USPS for Austin addresses and got them. It was confusing as shit to every service provider since it appeared that we'd moved from Manor to Austin even though our house was in the exact same place.

[The ATX]

The new MSA (county) population numbers will be out in about three weeks. I can't confirm it, but I've seen it posted on a couple of forums that the counties making up MSAs will be redefined in 2018. The last time that was done was 2013 IIRC. But I don't expect there to be any change to the five counties defined as the current Austin Metro.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by The ATX

The new MSA (county) population numbers will be out in about three weeks. I can't confirm it, but I've seen it posted on a couple of forums that the counties making up MSAs will be redefined in 2018. The last time that was done was 2013 IIRC. But I don't expect there to be any change to the five counties defined as the current Austin Metro.

Can't wait either. Maybe Burnet County will be added again. I know there are tons of new housing popping up along Hwy 71 between Bee Cave & Marble Falls, so there maybe a higher commute change between the Burnet Co. & Travis Co.

[JoninATX]

I'm also thinking Austin will take hold of 30th place by surpassing Kansas City this year.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by The ATX

The new MSA (county) population numbers will be out in about three weeks. I can't confirm it, but I've seen it posted on a couple of forums that the counties making up MSAs will be redefined in 2018. The last time that was done was 2013 IIRC. But I don't expect there to be any change to the five counties defined as the current Austin Metro.

Is it that they're reevaluating counties as per the current criteria that defines MSAs given new commuter estimates or that they're reevaluating the criteria altogether and thus assigning counties based on some new or altered set of criteria (with or without new commuter estimates)? My understanding was that it is the latter in tandem with new commuter estimates, but now you have me second guessing.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Is it that they're reevaluating counties as per the current criteria that defines MSAs given new commuter estimates or that they're reevaluating the criteria altogether and thus assigning counties based on some new or altered set of criteria (with or without new commuter estimates)? My understanding was that it is the latter in tandem with new commuter estimates, but now you have me second guessing.

I took it to mean they are re-evaluating MSAs based on current criteria, which is why I don't think Austin's MSA counties will change. But I can't find any reliable info on it.

[The ATX]

Here's the census release schedule for county population:

The statistics will be posted to the Census Bureau’s embargo site at 10 a.m. (EDT) on Tuesday, March 20, for public release at 12:01 a.m. (EDT) on Thursday, March 22.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

[The ATX]

Austin was the fastest growing large metro in the U.S. again according to the new Census estimates. Austin grew by over 55K.

The top five:

Austin
Raleigh
Orlando
Las Vegas
DFW

https://www.mystatesman.com/news/loc...VuWY0yj4r0H7J/

[Novacek]

Didn't quite jump Kansas city yet (only 13k back).

LV is still growing, so it'll probably still be a while until we pass them.

Next after KC is probably Cincinnati (probably in two years, they only grew 13k last year).

We may end up passing Pittsburgh before Sacremento, as the former is still shrinking.

[Novacek]

Just for shits and giggles, looking at some of the unattached counties.

Burnet continued slow growth, about 1%

Blanco also about 1%. Though they've actually grown over 10% since 2010, almost as fast as Caldwell.


For the long game, I'm still keeping my eye on Milam. Still not much, but according to the estimates (for what it's worth) they grew more last year than all of 2010-2016. Could be a blip, or could be a start. Who knows.

[Austin1971]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Didn't quite jump Kansas city yet (only 13k back).

LV is still growing, so it'll probably still be a while until we pass them.

Next after KC is probably Cincinnati (probably in two years, they only grew 13k last year).

We may end up passing Pittsburgh before Sacremento, as the former is still shrinking.

Can you send the link that lists all the metros. I'd like to compare Austin with the others. Thanks

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

Can you send the link that lists all the metros. I'd like to compare Austin with the others. Thanks

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...cal-areas.html

And for counties:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...ies-total.html

[Austin1971]

Originally Posted by Novacek

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...cal-areas.html

And for counties:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...ies-total.html

Awesome. Thanks