DENVER | Main Development Thread #7 - Page 164

TakeFive · #**3261** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 4:26 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918

0% this cycle for all of these except Two Tabor which I put at 30%. We are in the end of the cycle, maybe one year left at most. The last time these were proposals the bottom fell out shortly after. Sadly I think 1144 15th will be the only skyscraper from the 2010's boom period. Soon this place will get a lot more quiet just like it was in '09-12.

I assume you are familiar with tumbleweeds?

I just know that if I could survive THIS, then I can survive anything.

• Video Link

On a serious note, steel prices have risen 38% since the 1st of the year and that was before tariffs. So it's fair to assume that most high rise projects will go into a holding pattern for now, including Block 162 unless they locked in steel prices early (which I doubt).

On a positive note, copper and zinc (futures) prices have dropped anticipating a slowdown in demand. Ya think?

twister244 · #**3262** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 8:59 AM**

How can Block 162 go into a holding pattern if it has already broken ground?.......

I wouldn't assume that means things will come to a screeching halt. It just means these costs will get passed down to tenants and owners of the building. However, if the economics and demand are still there to make the building work, then construction will continue.

TakeFive · #**3263** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 3:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by twister244

How can Block 162 go into a holding pattern if it has already broken ground?.......

I wouldn't assume that means things will come to a screeching halt. It just means these costs will get passed down to tenants and owners of the building. However, if the economics and demand are still there to make the building work, then construction will continue.

Oops, I've been somewhat out of the loop recently and the last I had heard was that they had not yet 'formally' broken ground and wondered if their was some last minute hesitation. But I see now that it was just 'formalities' and they have since had their 'formal' groundbreaking. They must have in fact locked in prices some time ago and that at-the-least Block 162 is a Go.

CherryCreek · #**3264** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 4:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by twister244

How can Block 162 go into a holding pattern if it has already broken ground?.......

I wouldn't assume that means things will come to a screeching halt. It just means these costs will get passed down to tenants and owners of the building. However, if the economics and demand are still there to make the building work, then construction will continue.

Well, hopefully they are good to go and have locked down their costs. But just to bring some bad memories, you can never be sure anything is "set is stone."

The Spire broke ground and then construction came to a halt in the midst of the financial crises. Fortunately, things worked out (and for newbies, you won't want to read about how affordable the Spire once was).

http://www.westword.com/news/spire-t...living-5870176

mojiferous · #**3265** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 4:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Oops, I've been somewhat out of the loop recently and the last I had heard was that they had not yet 'formally' broken ground and wondered if their was some last minute hesitation. But I see now that it was just 'formalities' and they have since had their 'formal' groundbreaking. They must have in fact locked in prices some time ago and that at-the-least Block 162 is a Go.

What percentage of the budget of a project like Block 162 is the cost of steel? I would imagine that labor, land, and other materials make up equally large chunks of cost, and unless the project is planned by amateurs there is some variability built in and always room for belt tightening in other areas...

As far as I remember, almost every large scale project halting work has been because of pulled funding or lost loans. That's what happened to the Spire and I imagine it could happen to block 162 because of steel costs, but I would be really surprised if that was the only reason.

MovinOnUp · #**3266** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 5:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

Here is Two Tabors submission to the city as of May 11th.

https://businessden.com/wp-content/u...2018.05.11.pdf

Is it just me, or did others not realize that Tabor II was going to be significantly taller than the first?

For some reason, I thought they were going to be similar, or that Tabor II was actually going to be shorter.

BG918 · #**3267** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 7:59 PM**

DenverInfill did their annual summer tower crane census and currently in central Denver there are 33 tower cranes in the air, 5 more than at this time last summer.

Lots of construction in the downtown area but it got me thinking, what is still on the boards and actually going to get built? So I wanted to look at each area that DI looked at and mark known projects with a *:

Welton Corridor (6 cranes)
- SOVA (1)
- Alexan Arapahoe Square (1)
- Radiant (2)
- Alexan 20th St Station (1)
- 15th & Stout Hotel (1)
* 18th & Champa Hotel - 20 stories
* Kinect?
* NOVA Condos at Benedict Square?

Uptown (3 cranes)
- Park 17 (1)
- SLC 17th & Pearl (2)
* ACE Hotel at 19th & Grant

Cherry Creek Area (6 cranes)
- Gable Jackson St (2)
- 2nd & Detroit office bldg (1)
- UC Health Cherry Creek (1)
- 9th & Colorado (2)
* Sears Redevelopment?
* Cherry Creek Mall west parking lot redevelopment?
* Hilltop Senior Living

Baker/Speer (2 cranes)
- Alta Sobo Station (1)
- Modera Wash Park (1)
* Holland Partners 355 Logan
* Holland Partners 99 S Broadway
* I/25 Broadway redevelopment?

Golden Triangle (4 cranes)
- Parq on Speer (2)
- 13th & Delaware Apartments (1)
- Element Hotel (1)
* Holland Partners 12th & Acoma - 16 stories
* Lennar 10th & Acoma - 17 stories
* Lennar 10th & Bannock - 17 stories
* 965 Bannock office building - 8 stories

Downtown/Lodo (2 cranes)
- Market Station (1)
- 999 17th St (1)
* 18th & Market apartments - 11 stories
* Rockies Lot Redevelopment - 10 stories
* Block 162 - 30 stories
* Tabor II - 33 stories

Union Station/Riverfront Park (1 crane...wow)
- Ascent Union Station (1)
* 19th & Chestnut - last development parcel in DUS?

LoHi/Jefferson Park (2 cranes)
- Platte 15 (1)
- Jefferson View (1)
* Nichols office building at 17th & Platte
* Grandview condos
* Apartments at 16th & Boulder?
* 26th & Alcott apartments - 20 stories?

RiNo (1 crane)
- Camden Rino
* Giambrocco site?
* 30th & Brighton Blvd mixed-use?
* World Trade Center?
* 35th & Blake office?

West Colfax/Sloans Lake/Sun Valley (4 cranes)
- LakeHouse condos (2)
- Emery apartments on Colfax (1)
- Misc. apartment projects on Colfax (2)
- Denver Water campus (1)
* 10th & Osage apartments?
* Colfax and Irving apartments?
* Old St Anthony's redevelopment?
* Mile High Stadium Village?
* DHA Sun Valley apartments?

TakeFive · #**3268** Posted **Jul 9, 2018, 9:04 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918

DenverInfill did their annual summer tower crane census and currently in central Denver there are 33 tower cranes in the air, 5 more than at this time last summer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mojiferous

As far as I remember, almost every large scale project halting work has been because of pulled funding or lost loans. That's what happened to the Spire and I imagine it could happen to block 162 because of steel costs, but I would be really surprised if that was the only reason.

Chances are good that Block 162 is safe. I assume they have a construction loan but USAA is self-funding a lot of the project since they'll be the end investor. They have a loong history of working with Patrinely. They have a yuge campus in Phoenix.

Just a guess that we'll see a pause for the cause of groundbreaking's that could (easily) extend into next Spring. Looking at BG918's long list of properties I doubt anyone will even much notice the pause.

Any pause could be a good thing. Plus there's a ton of civil projects ondeck. CDOT's I-70 and I-25 projects plus DIA's overhaul and Denver is gearing up to spend $933 million on various projects. There will be no shortage of work. Any developing slack in labor is likely to be temporary.

FunctionForm · #**3269** Posted **Jul 10, 2018, 2:30 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MovinOnUp

Is it just me, or did others not realize that Tabor II was going to be significantly taller than the first?

For some reason, I thought they were going to be similar, or that Tabor II was actually going to be shorter.

The original proposal was for a taller second tower. This is from Denver Infill.
http://denverinfill.com/images/blog/...r_original.jpg

I think it's nice we'll get a more modern interpretation.

James7576 · #**3270** Posted **Jul 10, 2018, 3:35 PM**

I thought too that one of denverinfill's
older picture of a new version of the tabor tower
2, at 43 stories similar the new office tower on
15th and Arapahoe
It would have been so awesome if it was going
to be 47 storise tall. Looking at it from going south on
I-25 passed the Broncos Stadium.

BG918 · #**3271** Posted **Jul 10, 2018, 8:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by FunctionForm

The original proposal was for a taller second tower. This is from Denver Infill.
http://denverinfill.com/images/blog/...r_original.jpg

I think it's nice we'll get a more modern interpretation.

I like this version from 2008 the best:

https://denverinfill.com/blog/2008/0...ng-permit.html

DenvertoLA · #**3272** Posted **Jul 10, 2018, 8:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918

I like this version from 2008 the best:

I like the new version, it's just the roofline that sucks in my opinion. They should have kept that angle from the 2008 proposal.

DenvertoLA · #**3273** Posted **Jul 10, 2018, 9:01 PM**

Look how gross that roof line is. That curve wants to curve up! lol

Cirrus · #**3274** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 2:39 PM**

lol Denver is going to get another skyscraper boom right as architecture recedes to boxy and flat again.

CherryCreek · #**3275** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 3:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cirrus

lol Denver is going to get another skyscraper boom right as architecture recedes to boxy and flat again.

Outside of a handful of coastal US cities and perhaps Chicago, that seems to be the norm in the US.

Cirrus · #**3276** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 5:24 PM**

Eh, I don't think this one is about coasts or city size. I think it's just luck of the draw in terms of which decades any particular city has its booms.

Atlanta & Charlotte are full of ornately-crowned skyscrapers because their skylines boomed in the 90s amid the postmodern rage. But I guess they count as coastal, so about Des Moines, a tiny city with one of the least boxy skylines around. Add in Cincinnati and Saint Louis and Minneapolis and Columbus and really plenty of others.

OTOH, until recently the gigantic coastal San Francisco and Los Angeles have both spent most of the last 40 years just as boxy as Denver, their one big landmark towers notwithstanding.

DenvertoLA · #**3277** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 6:31 PM**

Part of the reason LA is boxy is because they required helicopter pads on the roof in case of an earthquake. They don't require that anymore.

derek.berardi · #**3278** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 9:43 PM**

Well, after lots of searching, I managed to find a tiny thumbnail of 17th and Pearl Apartments. I'm not sure why the developer would want people to rely on the fugly black and white renderings, rather than something polished. Not that you can tell much from this since it's so small, but at least you can see the color/material variations.

Somebody needs to nudge these guys to release the hi-res version.

http://sararch.com/news/17th-pearl-apartments-update-1/

derek.berardi · #**3279** Posted **Jul 11, 2018, 9:58 PM**

And the worst project of the year award goes to....this steaming lump of mess! What is this? Who makes things like this? "We want every material, every color and every shape! Just make it look like a parking garage to be inhabited by people!" Sorry to be a jerk, but this is atrocious and embarrassing!

https://denverite.com/2018/07/11/122...-drive-anchor/

TakeFive · #**3280** Posted **Jul 12, 2018, 12:11 AM**

Revised design of a building to be constructed at 1225 Santa Fe Drive

Photo by Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite

A big, new residential project on Santa Fe might be an “anchor” neighbors would welcome
Jul 11 2018 Kevin Beaty/Denverite

Quote:

The building’s designer incorporated feedback from the La Alma-Lincoln Park Neighborhood Association.

Neighbors around Santa Fe Drive are preparing for at least 100 additional residences on the art district’s north end, and they say they’re pleased to have had their voices heard. While development has conjured fears that the creative drag might lose its flair, developers say the project represents an opportunity to extend Santa Fe’s creative stretch (and First Friday foot traffic) a little bit farther to the north.