Okay. I think I understand you better.
Here is the deal. Wind power becomes 20% of our energy supply by 2020. This isn't wishful thinking... it is simply the trajectory we are on at the moment.
Here is a snapshot:
US Wind Power Capacity in MW
2005: 9,149
2006:11,603 +27%
2007:16,819 +45%
2008: 25,170 +49%
2009: 35,159 +39%
Now I'm not saying this is exponential at all, but the construction per year increased right through the Great Recession and actually would have been higher in 2009 had financing been available.
However lets then use 2009 as the extended growth rate. (1.39^10 = 26.29X) Thats a high value so lets assume it is far too optimistic. That would represent a complete replacement of current coal by 2020. Let run a pessimistic scenario. 2010 construction was estimated at 16,000 by year end which is a 45% increase. Lets say that we can only maintain the 2010 pace of 16k bucking all trends. (0.45*10 +1= 5.57) That would put 10% of our current supply of power under wind.
So we have two bounds:
2009 percentage growth: 47% of current total MWh with wind alone
Current numerical growth: 10% of current total MWh with wind alone
Now what happens to energy demand going forward? Source:
EIA
Electricity Demand in Quadrillion BTUs
2007: 12.84
2008: 12.69
2009: 12.24
2010: 12.34
But watch what happens after:
2011: 12.72
2015: 13.20
2020: 13.39
2030: 15.26
2010-2020 difference: +8.5%
Residential 2010-2020 difference: +6.7%
Commercial 2010-2020 difference: +16.23%
Industrial 2010-2020 difference: +18.58%
Transportation 2010-2020 difference (total energy consumed): +14.2%
Total energy consumed nationwide 2010-2020: +8.6%
Total projected population growth from 2010-2020: 10.04%
Total energy consumed nationwide 2020-2030: +5.7%
Bloody murder? No. Actually we are becoming less energy intensive as a nation and have been for a while even before the recession.
This means that essentially all energy constructed since 2007 is replacement of older hardware. Thats where the difference in our arguments has been. The replacement already started not in 2025 but in 2007. There is no waiting for the future involved. Each and every single MW is replacing our 2007 capacity.