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Originally Posted by Sun Belt
That was a good reply, this is the only follow up I have. Why would Amazon necessarily need to be in a region that is currently larger than Seattle?
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Hiring people is not easy IME. Amazon won't have an issue getting people to relocate for them, but being in a city with a larger population would likely make the launch run more smoothly. There would be a larger pool of candidates to apply enabling Amazon to offer fewer relocation packages, which would potentially save $$$ on recruitment while also avoiding staffing the new HQ with tens of thousands of fresh transplants. A new job, at a new HQ, in a new city is a big change. The turnover risks are going to be even more elevated than they would otherwise.
Amazon also avoids becoming the "town factory" if they choose a larger city. 50,000 jobs in Raleigh has got to make them the largest employer in North Carolina. I assume that's also true of Colorado should they locate in Denver.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt
NC has been on a high growth rate that could match other metros within the next few decades.
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Nothing last forever. US population growth is slowing. Immigration is slowing. Birth rates are below replacement. We're getting old. Fast. There are also indications that people, specifically young people, are less mobile than in the past.
There was discussion a while back in one of the Chicago threads about domestic migration. Illinois' population has declined something like 0.5% since 2013 and there was some discussion as to why. Someone (I believe Marothisu?) did some digging and what he found was interesting to me.
People born in Illinois were statistically less likely to leave their home state than the national average. Illinois' out migration numbers are high because Chicagoland is a port of entry for many immigrants. Immigrants are more mobile than Americans and are more likely to explore opportunities out of state. In the past, there were enough births to offset outbound migrants and deaths. In recent years, births have not been able to keep pace with outbound migrants and rising deaths. Illinois isn't often a net gainer of domestic migrants, but that gap has been exasperated by the fact that Americans are less mobile, resulting in small declines in population for a graying state like Illinois and eventually country like the US. Unless we see a massive spike in birth rates (unlikely) or bring in more immigrants (more plausible, still unlikely), the US will likely go in to population decline in the near-ish future. Given we're becoming increasingly rooted and on the precipice of population decline, hitting double digit growth YoY is going to be a lot more challenging. With fewer births and people less willing to relocate, it may not be realistic that Raleigh grow to become a metro of 5m+.
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