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  #4861  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2017, 6:07 PM
Cage Cage is offline
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Originally Posted by G.S MTL View Post
.....is it because of timing?? I know they did remove a flight when they were flying the A380? can anyone elaborate thanks.
Bingo on the timing. More than premium vs economy it was the timing of flights that sunk the AF 380 on YUL-CDG. Let's say optimal timing departure out of YUL is 7pm so you put the whalejet onto this time slot. The flight can be beat by the competition with sending a 300 seat aircraft at 6pm together with a 220 seat aircraft at 8pm. Pax wanting to arrive into CDG earlier will take the 6pm, those wanting to stay in YUL later ill take the 8pm flight. This is called bracketing the competition.

In order to avoid getting stuck in the bracket problem, there must be another constraint on the system. For QF on SYD-LAX, the whalejet works because departure and arrival is up against the curfews on both ends of the route. For routes such as JFK-FRA there are slot constraints at both ends. YUL-CDG doesn't have enough constraints to prevent the bracket.

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Originally Posted by Denscity View Post
I wonder why BA does the A380 to YVR and not YYZ. Is frequency > size?
BA quietly went from 2x 747 to 1x 380 at about the same time WS launched YVR-LGW.

At YYZ BA can operate multiple daily flights to compete with AC multiple dailies. The market is also big enough to support 3 airlines.

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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
A long enough flight, not worth it to have two frequencies? Beyond a certain point, everyone will choose a particular arrival time when going trans-atlantic?
YVR-LHR has a small departure time constraint, the alternative is to have the aircraft sit for hours like the situation in GRU, EZE, etc.
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  #4862  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 11:06 AM
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AF is switching their YYZ flights to 787-900 for the winter...

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...from-nov-2017/
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  #4863  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 4:55 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by Cage View Post
Bingo on the timing. More than premium vs economy it was the timing of flights that sunk the AF 380 on YUL-CDG.
Not according to the AF vice president of Canada ops at the time.

The timing wasn't the issue. Lack of premium demand was the main reason. AF was still 3x daily at YUL in the summer when they were sending the A380. If anything, they were the ones bracketing the competition. They are the leader when it comes to YUL-Paris both in terms of seats/week and frequency.

Link in french only.

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2012/06/1...380-a-montreal
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  #4864  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 7:41 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Not according to the AF vice president of Canada ops at the time.

The timing wasn't the issue. Lack of premium demand was the main reason. AF was still 3x daily at YUL in the summer when they were sending the A380. If anything, they were the ones bracketing the competition. They are the leader when it comes to YUL-Paris both in terms of seats/week and frequency.

Link in french only.

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2012/06/1...380-a-montreal
now.... if AF were to change configuration, do you think we could see the A380 in the future? or what other airline would you see serving YUL with an A380?
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  #4865  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 9:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G.S MTL View Post
now.... if AF were to change configuration, do you think we could see the A380 in the future? or what other airline would you see serving YUL with an A380?
AF is still the most probable, they have to remove First and reduce the Business cabin in almost half, but AF won't do this just for YUL, there has to be 2-3 more routes in AF network that demand a plane and config like this. Since the Air France A380 fleet is so small, they might just stick to 1 configuration and instead increase frequency on routes like YUL, 3-4 daily 787/A350s.

There are only 3 euro carriers with A380s - Lufthansa, BA and AF. I don't see Lufthansa or BA sending the A380 to YUL. Lufthansa and BA A380s are even more premium heavy.
The rest of the A380s carriers are in Asia/MiddleEast, they also won't be sending the A380 to YUL. Qatar Airways operates the high density 77W to YUL I believe, with only 24 Business seats
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  #4866  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by G.S MTL View Post
now.... if AF were to change configuration, do you think we could see the A380 in the future? or what other airline would you see serving YUL with an A380?
I'd give the odds at about 25% chance, post change in configuration.

Currently, AF flies the A380 to:

New York
San Francisco
Washington
Los Angeles
Miami
Mexico City
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Johannesburg
Abidjan

I could see the African or Mexico City A380s being the choice for a Montreal route. The US and Chinese routes probably have more premium travelers, so I doubt those would be used.

An extremely slim chance exists that either Emirates, Qatar or Etihad might use an A380 to Montreal. That would likely require an aviation treaty modification. Emirates might start service to YUL, but I think they are more set on YYZ if they could get more access to Canada. That being said, the odds are infinitesimally small on that happening from the Middle East 3.
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  #4867  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Not according to the AF vice president of Canada ops at the time.
Yeah I know what AF said at the time as the reason for dropping YUL from the A380 routes. However I don't completely buy the stated reason from AF HQ.

Riddle me this. How come you never hear about player injuries during the Stanley cup playoff, only to learn at garbage bag day that 4-7 players had moderately severe injuries like broken fingers or cracked ribs?

How do you explain the bracket problem to a news reporter? In short, you don't. Instead of the real reason, Good PR communications types offer a simple reason that is easily digested by the masses rather than the real complex reason.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G.S MTL View Post
now.... if AF were to change configuration, do you think we could see the A380 in the future? or what other airline would you see serving YUL with an A380?
AF has yet to introduce their new Business and First Class product onto the A380. Further, the new seats wont be on the A380 until at least late 2019 or 2020.

The big problem for the AF A380 is angle-flat business class product. Angle Flat business class is required to make First Class saleable. However, Angle Flat business class is easily susceptible to competition from lie-flat business class seats. In short, AF is walking its business class customers to the competition rather than having the pax buy up to first.

If AF were to reconfigure the A380 to a small first cabin (6-8 seats), business class on the upper deck with lie flat seats, larger premium economy cabin with 2-4-2 seating on the main deck, and economy seating primarily on the main deck; their A380 might be viable on YUL-CDG.

While AF is reconfiguring their A380s, they might want to teach German to the FA's, slap a blue coat of paint and a yellow crane decal on the tail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadian74 View Post
There are only 3 euro carriers with A380s - Lufthansa, BA and AF. I don't see Lufthansa or BA sending the A380 to YUL. Lufthansa and BA A380s are even more premium heavy.
The rest of the A380s carriers are in Asia/MiddleEast, they also won't be sending the A380 to YUL. Qatar Airways operates the high density 77W to YUL I believe, with only 24 Business seats
It might make sense for LH to send the A380 to YUL for summer season service. However AC would never allow it. Further LH A380s are doing good work on other routes and the fleet is kind of small.

QR would be a good candidate for A380 YUL-DOH route, especially as they are getting caught up in the EK/ET lead discussions regarding future of air travel.
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  #4868  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2017, 11:40 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by Cage View Post
Yeah I know what AF said at the time as the reason for dropping YUL from the A380 routes. However I don't completely buy the stated reason from AF HQ.

Riddle me this. How come you never hear about player injuries during the Stanley cup playoff, only to learn at garbage bag day that 4-7 players had moderately severe injuries like broken fingers or cracked ribs?

How do you explain the bracket problem to a news reporter? In short, you don't. Instead of the real reason, Good PR communications types offer a simple reason that is easily digested by the masses rather than the real complex reason.
Cage.... come on....I don't buy your argument for a second....

There is no bracket problem. AF can time their flights out of YUL whichever way they want it.

Your hockey analogy isn't relevant. The team hides the injury of one of it's players during the playoffs so that the opposing team doesn't take advantage of said player. Once the series is over or they are eliminated, only then do they reveal the details of the injury. It makes complete sense.

Now you used hockey as an example (a wrong one, if you ask me).

Here is my reasoning: Occam's razor.

Most of the time, the simplest answer to a question is the right one.

So why are there so few A380's in Canada? Is it because Canada is not a premium heavy destination, or is it because of a more complex bracket problem that airlines supposedly know about but don't want to bother explaining to the public?

Which is the simple (and right) answer? I rest my case....
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  #4869  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2017, 2:49 PM
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  #4870  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2017, 3:46 PM
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^Cool! Interesting that the signage is all in pictograms (i.e. no English, French and Inuktitut).
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  #4871  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2017, 4:29 PM
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
^Cool! Interesting that the signage is all in pictograms (i.e. no English, French and Inuktitut).
I hadn't noticed that on first glance! It's inclusive and pretty cool! No matter what language you speak, you should be able to navigate fairly easily around the terminal!
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  #4872  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2017, 4:32 PM
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I am going to miss the Yellow Beast. It will be repurposed for Airport Operations.
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  #4873  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2017, 1:09 AM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
There is no bracket problem. AF can time their flights out of YUL whichever way they want it.

Your hockey analogy isn't relevant. The team hides the injury of one of it's players during the playoffs so that the opposing team doesn't take advantage of said player. Once the series is over or they are eliminated, only then do they reveal the details of the injury. It makes complete sense.
.....
Here is my reasoning: Occam's razor.

Most of the time, the simplest answer to a question is the right one.

So why are there so few A380's in Canada?
The hockey analogy fits because AF doesn't want to admit how poor a design their Biz Class angle flat seat hobbles the A380 operation. Additionally, the 18" wide economy seat steals away from premium economy cabin revenue opportunities. Overall the design of the AF A380 cabin has pax marching to the back of plane rather than forward.

The comparison to the AF380 is the AF77W with 10 abreast seating. The horrible economy seat puts bums into the Premium Economy cabin or the lie flat Biz Class cabin, also the Biz Class can compete with their principle competitor, AC.

My big beef with AF reasoning for pulling the A380; why didnt the AF brain trust realize there was a Premium Cabin problem before dispatching the A380 onto YUL-CDG?

As to the bracket situation, you are right in that AF didn't get itself into a bracket problem. This was accomplished by maintaining 3x per day rather than consolidating flights like the original market analysis called for.

The Bracket problem also frequently comes up in predatory pricing legal cases. AA did it to a bunch of startups in the 80s post deregulation era. AC got caught by WS infront at the Von Fink Canadian Competition Tribunal. I suspect that WS will bracket any new ULCC that gets a toe hold in Canada.

As for why there are very few A380s in Canada, here is the answer.

There are 214 A380s commercially flying today. Take out the 114 A380s that cannot fly here because the Canadian government refuses to grant additional access to the ME3. Furthermore take out the 59 A380s that fly with airlines that don't currently serve Canada (I'm not counting QF seasonal service to YVR as regular service). Remove the 12 examples being flown by BA into YVR and there are 39 A380s left for Canada to anticipate the next route launch. These 39 examples include 14 at LH, 10 at AF, 10 at KE, and 5 at China Southern.
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  #4874  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2017, 4:35 AM
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Interesting article on a new retail development proposed on agricultural land belonging to the Victoria Airport Authority.

A bit of local resistance due to the impact on farm land. It is interesting that the quote at the bottom from the Federal Government is they are staying out of the details on land use of airport land as long as it is consistent with the master plan.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/lo...ect-1.21607149

Major airports look to be getting into the shopping centre landlord business in a big way.
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  #4875  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2017, 12:25 PM
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AerLingus is boosting their YYZ flights for this winter....

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...pacity-in-w17/
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  #4876  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2017, 7:55 PM
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YQB terminal expansion

Just found out a virtual tour of the new YQB terminal is available.

http://360.yqb2018.com/#

As I mentionned here before, the new international terminal will be ready at the end of 2017, doubling the original terminal's size.

The virtual tour is worth it, I think it will look nice.
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  #4877  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2017, 3:39 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Speaking of YQB, seems as though DL connection will cancel JFK-YQB in October. The route was flown daily year round, and won't even be returning next summer.

In 2013, when DL started JFK-YQB (and summer seasonal DTW-YQB, which has since been canceled), YQB had 4 daily flights to EWR and 2 daily to JFK. This summer, it was down to 2x daily to EWR and 1x daily to JFK. Next summer, it will be just 2x daily to EWR.

edit: On a brighter note, June 2017 pax numbers was up 6.2%.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Aug 13, 2017 at 7:58 PM.
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  #4878  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2017, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Dirt_Devil View Post
Just found out a virtual tour of the new YQB terminal is available.

http://360.yqb2018.com/#

As I mentionned here before, the new international terminal will be ready at the end of 2017, doubling the original terminal's size.

The virtual tour is worth it, I think it will look nice.
Looks fantastic! Design is Quebec is so European compared to here in BC. YVR's most recent expansion looks 90's and still falls back on a funky west coast aboriginal theme. I appreciate the YVR pays tribute to our Indigenous cultures but somehow it looks more like a theme park then an airport.
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  #4879  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2017, 2:27 AM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Speaking of YQB, seems as though DL connection will cancel JFK-YQB in October. The route was flown daily year round, and won't even be returning next summer.

In 2013, when DL started JFK-YQB (and summer seasonal DTW-YQB, which has since been canceled), YQB had 4 daily flights to EWR and 2 daily to JFK. This summer, it was down to 2x daily to EWR and 1x daily to JFK. Next summer, it will be just 2x daily to EWR.

edit: On a brighter note, June 2017 pax numbers was up 6.2%.
The US regional carriers have really slashed their Canadian secondary destinations. I thought we might have hit bottom, but I guess not.
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  #4880  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2017, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by connect2source View Post
Looks fantastic! Design is Quebec is so European compared to here in BC. YVR's most recent expansion looks 90's and still falls back on a funky west coast aboriginal theme. I appreciate the YVR pays tribute to our Indigenous cultures but somehow it looks more like a theme park then an airport.
I totally agree. I don't get why YVR gets so many awards; it looks like a Moana theme park.
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