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  #41  
Old Posted Jul 3, 2008, 5:55 PM
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Originally Posted by The Dear Leader View Post
I do agree though that a decline will lead to some serious problems for our welfare state. I guess we'll just have to find a solution for that.
Yep, I wonder if there even is a solution for that issue in the future.
The answer is ofcourse: More babies, but that's easier said than done.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2008, 1:26 AM
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The german goverment has this year approved some laws to icrease fertility rates and now there´s general conscious in Germany about this issue but even if successful, germany will have to wait several years for these measures to take real effect. Anyway, total fertility rates don´t take into account migratory movements which could compensate in germany for the lower fertility. I can hardly imagine france to have more population than germany in the long furuture
Laws to increase fertility rates ? What, are they going to arrest people for not boinking ?
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  #43  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2008, 12:38 AM
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German birth figures for 2007 have been published. In 2007 there were exactly 684,865 births in Germany (source). This is a modest increase of 1.8% compared to 2007 (684,865 births in 2007 compared to 672,724 births in 2006), but it's not reaching the level of 2005 when there were 685,795 births, let alone the 1990s when there were on average 790,000 births every year.

The fertility rate figure for 2007 hasn't been published yet.

Here are the number of births in the largest EU countries in 2007 for comparison:
Code:
Country   Births in 2007

France      816,500
UK          772,244
Germany     684,865
Italy       563,933
Spain       491,183
Poland      387,873
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  #44  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2008, 12:38 AM
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For a broader perspective, here is the total number of births in the largest EU countries in the 8 years from 2000 (included) to 2007 (included):

Code:
Country  Births (2000-2007)

France      6,454,615
Germany     5,676,451
UK          5,672,084
Italy       4,401,251
Spain       3,557,986
Poland      2,934,021
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  #45  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2008, 12:36 AM
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The German statistical office has finally published the German fertility rate for 2007 (I don't know why it took them so long). In 2007 the German fertility rate was exactly 1.37. This is a moderate increase compared to 2006 when it was 1.33, but it still falls short of the German fertility rate in 2000 which was 1.38, and in 1990 when it was 1.45. Replacement level fertility is considered to be 2.1.

The biggest increase was in East Germany where the fertility rate jumped from 1.30 in 2006 to 1.37 in 2007, whereas in West Germany the increase was more modest, from 1.34 to 1.38.

In comparison, in 2007 the fertility rate in metropolitan France (the European part of France) was 1.96.

Quote:
Press release No. 298 / 2008-08-20

2007: Average number of children rises to 1.37 per woman

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the average number of children per woman in Germany was 1.37 in 2007, up from 1.33 in 2006. This was the first rise since 2004. 2000 was the last year in which the average number of children per woman was higher (1.38). In 2007, some 685,000 children were born, about 12,000 more than in 2006.
As in past years, the average number of births by younger women continued to decline in 2007, while it rose for women in their late twenties or older. Even in comparison to earlier years, a particularly strong increase was observed in 2007 for women aged from about 33 to 37.

The average number of children increased in both western and eastern Germanyin 2007, reaching 1.37 in each part of the country. Accordingly, for the first time since 1991, the average number of children per woman was at the same level in the new Länder as in the former territory of the Federal Republic(in each case excluding Berlin).
Quote:
Pressemitteilung Nr. 298 vom 20.08.2008

Jahr 2007: Durchschnittliche Kinderzahl steigt auf 1,37 Kinder je Frau

WIESBADEN – Wie das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) mitteilt, betrug im Jahr 2007 in Deutschland die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau 1,37 nach 1,33 im Jahr 2006. Sie nahm damit 2007 erstmals seit 2004 wieder zu. Einen höheren Wert hatte die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau zuletzt 2000 erreicht (1,38). 2007 waren rund 685 000 Kinder geboren worden, etwa 12 000 mehr als 2006.
Wie in den vergangenen Jahren ging die durchschnittliche Zahl der Geburten bei jüngeren Frauen auch 2007 zurück, während sie bei den Frauen ab Ende 20 zunahm. Besonders ausgeprägt war diese Zunahme 2007 auch im Vergleich zu den Vorjahren bei den Frauen von etwa 33 bis 37 Jahren.

Sowohl im Westen als auch im Osten Deutschlands hat die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl im Jahr 2007 zugenommen und beträgt jetzt jeweils 1,37. Damit lag die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau erstmals seit 1991 in den neuen Bundesländern so hoch wie im früheren Bundesgebiet (jeweils ohne Berlin).

Im Westen kam es damit erstmals seit 2004 und zuvor 2000 wieder zu einer Zunahme dieser Kennzahl. Die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl erreichte 2007 wieder den Stand von 2004, fiel aber niedriger aus als in den Jahren 1996 bis 2001. Im Osten Deutschlands stieg sie 2007 deutlich auf den höchsten Wert seit der Wiedervereinigung an, nachdem sie bis 2006 auf dem Niveau, das 2004 erreicht wurde, verharrt hatte. Zuvor hatte die durchschnittliche Kinderzahl dort nach ihrem Tief Anfang der 1990er Jahre bereits deutlich zugenommen.

Bei der Berechnung der durchschnittlichen Kinderzahl je Frau werden alle Kinder berücksichtigt, die im Laufe eines Jahres geboren werden. Dabei spielt es keine Rolle, ob die Eltern miteinander verheiratet sind oder nicht. Auch die Frage, ob es sich um das erste, zweite oder ein weiteres Kind der Frau handelt, ist bei dieser Berechnung unerheblich.
Diese durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau, die auch als zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer bezeichnet wird, wird zur Beschreibung des aktuellen Geburtenverhaltens herangezogen. Sie gibt an, wie viele Kinder eine Frau im Laufe ihres Lebens bekommen würde, wenn ihr Geburtenverhalten so wäre wie das aller Frauen zwischen 15 und 49 Jahren im jeweils betrachteten Jahr.

Wie viele Kinder ein Frauenjahrgang tatsächlich im Durchschnitt geboren hat, kann erst festgestellt werden, wenn die Frauen am Ende des gebärfähigen Alters sind, das zurzeit mit 49 Jahren definiert wird. Zur endgültigen Kinderzahl der Frauen, die jetzt 30 oder 20 Jahre alt sind, können somit heute nur Schätzungen abgegeben werden.
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  #46  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2008, 12:37 AM
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This graph shows the evolution of the German and metropolitan French fertility rates since 1975, including the latest figures published. The Elterngeld (parents' money) scheme introduced in Germany in 2006 is still a long way from turning the German fertility rate into the French one. This shows that there must more than just government money to explain the high fertility rate in metropolitan France.

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  #47  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2008, 3:22 PM
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Predicted population development in Europe 2004 - 2030.

Dark blue = more than -18%
Dark red = more than + 18%

Source: Spiegel Online / Berlin-Institut



Average fertility rate:


Source: Spiegel Online / Berlin-Institut
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  #48  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2008, 6:06 PM
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^^Great maps.

Here is another map, from Eurostat, by country this time. Fertility rates in 2006:

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  #49  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2008, 9:22 PM
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Nice maps guys!
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  #50  
Old Posted Sep 1, 2008, 1:11 PM
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The French statistical office has published provisional birth figures for the first half of 2008. These figures show a surprising increase, with births in Metropolitan France reaching a record high. The provisional birth figures can be seen here:
http://www.indices.insee.fr/bsweb/se...01000000000000

Why surprising? A bit of explanation is needed here. In 2006, the record number of 796,896 births were registed in Metropolitan France (the European part of France). This was the highest number of births in Metropolitan France since 1982. Fertility rate in 2006 was consequently also very high, it reached 1.98 in Metropolitan France, and 2.0 when including the overseas departments. Demographers explained this very high number of births by the fact that women from the end of the French baby boom (68-73) were now having the children that they had delayed so far. They predicted that the number of births would decrease after 2006, because as these last women from the baby boom era were having their delayed children, they were going to be replaced by the less numerous women from the post baby boom (1974 and beyond), thus mechanically reducing the number of births in France (something similar will happen in all the European countries, albeit with different magnitudes).

In 2007 the number of births in Metropolitan France was 785,985, i.e. 1.4% less than in 2006, and the fertility rate fell slightly to 1.96, which confirmed predictions from demographers. In 2008, I was expecting further slight decline in the number of births, given the "retirement" of the numerous women from the baby boom era, yet these provisional figures from the French statistical office show exactly the opposite.

In the first half of 2008, according to the provisional figures, there were 3.3% more births than in the first half of 2007, but what's more remarkable is there were 2.1% more births than in the first half of the record year 2006. If the trend is the same in the second half of the year, Metropolitan France is on course to register about 810,000 births in 2008, which is a number of births that has not been reached since 1973. This would most certainly mean that Metropolitan France's fertility rate would for the first time since 1974 cross the 2.0 threshhold, the holy grail in demographics.

We'll know for sure in the middle of January when the French statistical office will publish birth and fertility figures for the entire year 2008. A minority of demographers suspect that in some Western countries at least, we may have entered another age in fertility trends, with fertility rates recovering firmly to above 2.0. Maybe they are right after all. Only time will tell, one or two year data is not enough to draw any conclusion.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2008, 9:22 AM
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I'm curious..............the higher birth rates in UK, France are due to higher Muslim population or equally shared across all demographics. Muslims tend to have birth rates far higher than the general population due to less freedom of women and lower rate of workforce participation..
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  #52  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2008, 10:56 PM
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The French and the German statistical offices have just published their provisional birth figures up to the month of August. In the 8 months from January to August of this year, the number of births in Metropolitan France (the European part of France) increased by 3.0% compared to the previous year. If this is continued in the 4 last months of the year, it means Metropolitan France is on course to register about 810,000 births this year, the highest number of births in Metropolitan France since 1973 (the last year of the French post-war baby boom), and the fertility rate would most probably go over 2.0, which hasn't happened since 1974 (in 2007 it was at 1.96, in the record year 2006 it was at 1.98).

In Germany, in the 8 months from January to August, the number of births increased by 0.15% compared to the previous year. If this is continued in the 4 last months of the year, it means Germany will have about 686,000 births this year, only marginally more than last year.

For an historical perspective:

Metropolitan France:
Two last years of the French baby boom:
1972: 877,506 births
1973: 857,186

End of French baby boom:
1974: 801,218

Nadir of 1976:
1976: 720,395

Recovery of 1980-1981:
1980: 800,376
1981: 805,483

Nadir of 1994:
1994: 710,993

Year 2000 effect:
2000: 774,782

Record year 2006:
2006: 796,896

Decrease in 2007:
2007: 785,985

This year:
2008: could be 810,000 according to provisional figures from Jan. to Aug.

Germany:
Two last years of the German baby boom:
1970: 1,047,737 births
1971: 1,013,396

End of German baby boom:
1972: 901,657

Nadir of 1975:
1975: 782,310

Recovery of 1989-1990:
1989: 880,459
1990: 905,675

The past four years:
2004: 705,622
2005: 685,795
2006: 672,724 (record year, the lowest number of German births ever)
2007: 684,862

This year:
2008: could be 686,000 according to provisional figures from Jan. to Aug.
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  #53  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2008, 10:57 PM
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A great graph showing the French and German age pyramids superimposed over each other.

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  #54  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2008, 4:05 PM
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The earth being overpopulated?

I believe less than one percent of the entire above-water surface of the world is inhabited by humans. The other 99% is the uninhabited vastness of planet earth. Furthermore, if our food production methods were not as wasteful as they are we could feed our entire population with the current production and have significant reserves for significantly more people. But alas wealthy countries discard about as much as they consume and food production policies in ravaged countries do little to promote mass and affordable food production.
It's called Ecological Footprint. Not to mention carrying capacity of all organisms on the planet. The earth is not here just for humans.
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  #55  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2008, 6:18 PM
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An interesting article published in the New York Times exactly 100 years ago. At the time the situation was quite different from today: France had the lowest fertility in Europe, and French authorities were extremely worried for the future due to the rapidly growing population of the German Empire.

The journalist is quite visionary in the end of the article. He correctly predicts that the low fertility experienced by France earlier than other countries would soon spread to the rest of Europe with the increasing standards of living.

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  #56  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2009, 5:45 PM
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I think trick for high fertility rate in Europe is support for families with child's inside one country, and not just financial but also in every aspect, from work-times of the institutions for child's which must be compatible with working times of the parents, to the good and cheap medical care for child's.

Anywhere, financially couples with child's will "lose" money on child in every country in Europe today, compering to couples without child, they are not mobile like couples without child, but later parents with child and states profit from those child's. So of course that all European countries must invest a lot more in that, than they currently do now.

I mean why should person A and B invest his money, time and energy in his child, and after 20 or more years, that child will earn pension for person C and D without child's?

Also a lot more must be better, from medical care, schools and etc in one country.

For example medical care in France is one of the best in Europe, if not best. I know that because I saw medical system of the one Scandinavian country, and French medical system. French medical system is much better, hospitals are very good, clean, equipped and etc. Also I have friends in Germany, so in talks we compered French and German medical systems, according to them, French medical system is much better than German.

All those things have big impact on fertility rate in one country.
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  #57  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2009, 10:39 PM
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I found fertility rates for Spanish provinces in the year 2003 so I have added Spain to the map showing France, Germany and the Netherlands. Spain appears to find itself in an even worse predicament than Germany.

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  #58  
Old Posted Apr 29, 2009, 12:01 PM
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These maps and data are very interesting. But why are there such differents in fertility rates between regions and countries? What's the cause of these differents figures?
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  #59  
Old Posted May 15, 2009, 12:39 AM
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The number of German births in 2008 has been revised downwards. According to the German statistical office, there were only 675,000 births in Germany last year, which is less than had been initially announced.

Quote:
Press release No.137 / 2009-04-07

2008: More deaths and marriages, slightly fewer births

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of provisional results, the number of live births in Germany in 2008 (675,000 children) was slightly down by 1.1% on the previous year (683,000).
The provisional annual result is below the estimate of about 680,000 to 690,000 births, which had been calculated by Destatis at the beginning of this year on the basis of data available at the time (press release of 7 January 2009). The reason is the slower development of births in the last few months of 2008, which can be observed now.

As regards deaths, an increase by 20,000 cases or 2.4% to 844,000 was recorded for 2008. Hence, the number of children born in 2008 was by 168,000 smaller than the number of persons who died. In 2007 the balance of live births and deaths was –141,000 according to provisional data.

In 2008, 375,000 couples married, while in the previous year the number was 368,000. This means that the number of marriages increased by 7,000 or 1.8% in the period examined.

Regarding the final annual result for 2008, insignificant changes may still occur because the provisional result does not yet contain all data reported.

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/port...nderPrint.psml
It seems that the Elterngeld ("Parents' Money") scheme introduced in late 2006 to boost the German birth rate has produced very little effects. After a little bump in 2007 (the number of births increased from 672,724 in 2006 to 684,862 in 2007 as some parents took advantage of the money offered), the number of German births was back to 675,000 in 2008.

In comparison, in 2008 there were 834,000 births in France, i.e. 159,000 more than in Germany, which is the highest surplus of French births vs. German births recorded since the First French Empire (1804-1814).

In the 9 years between 2000 (included) and 2008 (included) there were 6,351,500 births in Germany vs. 7,284,500 births in France.
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  #60  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2009, 2:45 PM
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The five largest countries in the EU have now all published their 2008 birth figures. Here is the number of births in 2008:
- France: 834,000 births
- UK: 794,380
- Germany: 675,187
- Italy: 576,659
- Spain: 518,967

In the 9 years from 2000 to 2008, these were the births registered in each country:
- France: 7,284,500 births
- UK: 6,466,211
- Germany: 6,351,448
- Italy: 4,977,910
- Spain: 4,080,152
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