HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForumSkyscraper Posters
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #81  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 11:45 PM
Architype's Avatar
Architype Architype is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Pacific Canada
Posts: 6,531
^ Thanks, yes I know what a hub is, usually a transportation term, but also very important economically. I just failed to see the relevance for population, they are just the largest centres, and obviously have the most growth.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Stryker View Post
The crazy part is if you do the math, were gonna have a massive economic revival in about 20 years.

You gotta remember what has choked the atlantic provinces, has always been the rural-urban ratios.

Were gonna become very urban very fast, which might give us a great advantage, with ontario and BC, hitting taxation-high cost of living gluts.
^ If the rural populations are all in decline, that also means it's becoming more scattered by definition, so the economic investment return is constantly diminishing which is a drag on the economy. The cities still have a long way to go in growth to offset this.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #82  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2014, 11:51 PM
Chadillaccc's Avatar
Chadillaccc Chadillaccc is offline
ARTchitecture
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Cala Ghearraidh
Posts: 18,514
Here are my revised estimates for the metropolitan areas and CA's over 100 000 (official estimates to be released by StatCan in Feb. 2015):


Atlantic

St. John's - 211 000
Halifax - 412 000
Moncton - 147 000
Fredericton - 100 000
Saint John - 128 000


Quebec

Saguenay - 161 000
Ville de Québec - 801 000
Sherbrooke - 213 000
Trois-Rivières - 156 000
Montreal - 4 027 000
Gatineau - ~320 000


Ontario

Ottawa-Gatineau - 1 323 000
Kingston - 169 000
Peterborough - 124 000
Oshawa - 386 000
Toronto - 6 055 000
Hamilton - 766 000
St. Catharines-Niagara - 406 000
Waterloo Region - 510 000
Brantford - 143 000
Guelph - 152 000
London - 502 000
Windsor - 335 000
Barrie - 200 000
Sudbury - 166 000
Thunder Bay - 125 000


Prairies

Winnipeg - 783 000
Regina - 240 000
Saskatoon - 304 000
Lethbridge - 117 000
Calgary - 1 424 000
Red Deer - 100 000
Edmonton - 1 342 000


British Columbia

Kelowna - 188 000
Kamloops - 104 000
Chillwack - 100 000
Abbotsford - 179 000
Vancouver - 2 483 000
Nanaimo - 104 000
Victoria - 360 000

Based on approximate 2-year average growth, extrapolated data from StatCan

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm


Bold = Regional Hub



**Hightlights** - Toronto surpasses 6 000 000, Montreal surpasses 4 000 000, Calgary surpasses 1 400 000, Edmonton surpasses 1 300 000, London surpasses 500 000, Saskatoon surpasses 300 000, Barrie reaches 200 000, Lethbridge on target to surpass certain CMAs even before its CA is officially converted into a CMA.



For a full breakdown, see here:







Disclaimer: due to the revision of last years provincial estimate numbers by StatCan, I expect that they may also revise the CMA estimate numbers when the 2014 numbers are released in early 2015. As such, these numbers are definitely subject to dramatic change, however, I am just working with the numbers that we currently have available. Calgary's growth could be as low as 47 000, and Edmonton's as low as 40 000. Many other CMAs could see similar reductions if they occur at all.
__________________
Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #83  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:02 AM
Innsertnamehere's Avatar
Innsertnamehere Innsertnamehere is offline
Insertoronto
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Toronto
Posts: 5,088
Kamloops, Nanaimo and Chillwack are new entries I take it? any other areas that may soon crack the 100k mark?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #84  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:15 AM
FrAnKs's Avatar
FrAnKs FrAnKs is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ville de Québec / Quebec city
Posts: 4,409
Awesome work !

Drummondville in Québec will be our next to reach 100 000.
St-Jean sur-Richelieu is closer, but it will likely be added to Montréal in 2016.
__________________
PROVINCE OF QUEBEC ==> 8 310 000
MONTREAL ==> 4 060 000
QUEBEC CITY ==> 806 000
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #85  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:15 AM
Chadillaccc's Avatar
Chadillaccc Chadillaccc is offline
ARTchitecture
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Cala Ghearraidh
Posts: 18,514
Quote:
Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
Kamloops, Nanaimo and Chillwack are new entries I take it? any other areas that may soon crack the 100k mark?
Yes sir! Kamloops, Nanaimo, Chilliwack, Red Deer, Lethbridge, and Fredericton are on this list. Lethbridge will be the only new CMA in the 2016 census, but by census 2021 all of those listed will be CMAs.

Ones that could potentially become CMAs by 2021 are Belleville, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, and Drummondville.


EDIT: Oops! I see Franks beat me to it.
__________________
Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #86  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:25 AM
FrAnKs's Avatar
FrAnKs FrAnKs is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ville de Québec / Quebec city
Posts: 4,409
eheh

Just curious, how long have you been working on it ?

... just to figure out what level of Nerd are you ! ( Just kidding )
__________________
PROVINCE OF QUEBEC ==> 8 310 000
MONTREAL ==> 4 060 000
QUEBEC CITY ==> 806 000
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #87  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:30 AM
Beedok Beedok is offline
Exiled Hamiltonian
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,334
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
I think Go Transit and Metrolinx will finally be the shot in the arm that Hamilton needs. It's always been just that little bit too far for people who work in Toronto. With faster trains and better service, it's going to be a game changer. People can live in Hamilton and be in downtown Toronto in a jiffy, or vice versa. In the GTAH, Hamilton easily has the 2nd best downtown. I've considered moving there many times, but always changed my mind due to bad transit connections to Toronto.

Hamilton offers great value compared to Toronto and might start seeing huge bumps in population growth thanks to transit upgrades. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton grow faster than any other CMA in Ontario over the next 30 years. It's a diamond in the rough.
It's just demotivating because people've been more or less saying that for like 10-15 years and nothing. I worry that if Hamilton doesn't pick up it's own game it could get gobbled up by Toronto.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #88  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:33 AM
Chadillaccc's Avatar
Chadillaccc Chadillaccc is offline
ARTchitecture
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Cala Ghearraidh
Posts: 18,514
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrAnKs View Post
eheh

Just curious, how long have you been working on it ?

... just to figure out what level of Nerd are you ! ( Just kidding )
I just did it today. It's pretty easy and quick to come to an approximate average based on two-year patterns. However, as I stated at the bottom of my post, the numbers are subject to dramatic change, as StatCan revised their provincial numbers for last year when they released their official 2014 numbers last week. I expect once they release the 2014 city numbers, they will also revise last year's city numbers, reducing estimated growth across many of the CMAs.

For example, Calgary's growth could be as low as 47 000, but because our StatCan estimate growth last year was 57 000, and the city has stated we experienced record breaking growth again this year(as we did last year), I set our growth at 59 000. So things could get a little screwy. Many CMAs could see reductions in their estimated population growth.


I'm a pretty big nerd
__________________
Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #89  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 12:45 AM
harls's Avatar
harls harls is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Aylmer, Québec
Posts: 16,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
You can put Gatineau in Quebec, 273 915 hab (2014)
4th largest city in the province.

metro 314,501
According to this the metro area was already 325,874 on July 1 of last year?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #90  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 1:00 AM
FrAnKs's Avatar
FrAnKs FrAnKs is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ville de Québec / Quebec city
Posts: 4,409
Chadillac Nerd level : Epic ( sucess ! )

As for your population estimates, in french we say : Les années se suivent, mais ne se ressemblent pas ! ( Years follow each other, but are not alike )
So it's pretty hard to exactly tell especially with a boundary change.
But I'm like all of you. I'm so nerd, that I can't stand a year long without making my own population estimates !

I'm personally using another way to calculate a metro area.
Here's how I do it :

Per example , I take Québec city metro area ;

In 2011 (july 1st) the population of the province was 8 007 000
Québec city was : 776 800
So it counted for 9,7015 % of the province

I do it for 2012, 2013 etc... until today.

I think it's a good way to do it, because you can follow a tendency through the years. You can't be SO FAR of the reality when you reach 2014, because you will know that a metro area can't count ( with the same known boundaries ) for 9.7015% one year, and 10.123% another year when the difference is only 0.10 % since last year.

What do you think ?
__________________
PROVINCE OF QUEBEC ==> 8 310 000
MONTREAL ==> 4 060 000
QUEBEC CITY ==> 806 000

Last edited by FrAnKs; Sep 30, 2014 at 1:15 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #91  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 1:14 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 7,598
Chad's a Level 4 data nerd, just like me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beedok View Post
It's just demotivating because people've been more or less saying that for like 10-15 years and nothing. I worry that if Hamilton doesn't pick up it's own game it could get gobbled up by Toronto.
Hamilton got the sh*t knocked out of it with all the factory job losses. Growth in health sciences and other areas has been good, but only managed to absorb the losses. I think most of the blue collar jobs that were in jeopardy have gone already while the new economic drivers continue to blossom.

Hamilton's worst days are behind it. I realize it sounds like a broken record after 30 years of body blows, but how much longer can this possibly carry on? I sense the city is about to rise again.
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #92  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 2:15 AM
GreaterMontréal's Avatar
GreaterMontréal GreaterMontréal is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 3,123
Quote:
Originally Posted by harls View Post
According to this the metro area was already 325,874 on July 1 of last year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I just put it in the Ontario part because Ottawa is the main part of the metro, as everyone knows the metro is split between the two provinces.

Is it only 274 000 in the Quebec part still though? I thought it was over 300 000 even in 2011?

GreaterMontréal
the Metro is over 320K in 2014.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatineau
__________________
Montréal métropolitain
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #93  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 2:25 AM
BretttheRiderFan's Avatar
BretttheRiderFan BretttheRiderFan is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,667
Never heard of cities being referred to us "hubs" before.

Unless we're talking about a Calgarian going on about being an Air Canada and WestJet hub.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #94  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 2:40 AM
Beedok Beedok is offline
Exiled Hamiltonian
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,334
Quote:
Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan View Post
Never heard of cities being referred to us "hubs" before.

Unless we're talking about a Calgarian going on about being an Air Canada and WestJet hub.
Thunder Bay loves to use that term.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #95  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 3:37 AM
Architype's Avatar
Architype Architype is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Pacific Canada
Posts: 6,531
Quote:
Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan View Post
Never heard of cities being referred to us "hubs" before.

Unless we're talking about a Calgarian going on about being an Air Canada and WestJet hub.
Yes, I also had visions of mass commuting and huge migrations. However, Moncton is known as the Hub of the Maritimes, Nanaimo is the Hub of Vancouver Island. Are there any more hubs?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #96  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 5:11 AM
ozonemania ozonemania is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 678
'Hub' is 'buh' backwards.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #97  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 5:20 AM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: White Rock BC
Posts: 5,001
Red Deer and Lethbridge are already over 100,000 CMA easily. Fort McMurray will probably make the list within 10 years and maybe Grand Prairie too.

Nanaimo and Drummondville will probably be next. Chilliwack maybe in 10 years but I don't think Kamloops will do it. Kamloops already takes in a huge area and the population growth rate is effectively zero. Almost all areas of the BC Interior are experiencing population decline or stagnation. Even once booming Kelowna has seen it's growth fall to a snail's pace. The only area seeing significant growth is the relatively small population area of The Peace.

Nanaimo will be next for BC and eventually Chilliwack but Kamloops may never make it.

As far as Ontario............I don't see anything on the horizon for decades. Belleville/Trenton, Sarnia, and Sault Ste. Marie are the only contenders and none of them are growing.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #98  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 5:39 AM
Trans Canada's Avatar
Trans Canada Trans Canada is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 840
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
**Hightlights** - Toronto surpasses 6 000 000, Montreal surpasses 4 000 000, Calgary surpasses 1 400 000, Edmonton surpasses 1 300 000, London surpasses 500 000, Saskatoon surpasses 300 000, Barrie reaches 200 000, Lethbridge on target to surpass certain CMAs even before its CA is officially converted into a CMA.
Sweet, a lot of big milestones this year. Toronto at 6 million is crazy, and I reckon it's only a matter of time before it gobbles up the Oshawa CMA. Oshawa is becoming more and more a suburb of Toronto.


Another chart I put together



Note this chart only extends to 2012.

Points of interest - Ontario-wide (less KCW) peak in 2001 (Ottawa 3rd highest growth); Winnipeg's slow but steady rise; Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (KCW)'s below-average growth since 2007 (surprising)
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #99  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 6:41 AM
BretttheRiderFan's Avatar
BretttheRiderFan BretttheRiderFan is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,667
Being my hometown, it's always somewhat irritating seeing people spell it "Grand Prairie" and not the correct "Grande Prairie".

We are proud of our French origins!



Seriously though...it is misspelled SO often...
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #100  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 9:39 AM
eemy's Avatar
eemy eemy is offline
Closed account
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,467
With respect to regional economic hubs, I believe Statistics Canada actually did a study on this (or possibly some other researcher, don't have time to search for the source). Ottawa was actually ranked rather low as a regional hub compared to places like Halifax or Regina.

In many ways London, Sudbury and Thunder Bay are more important regional centres than Ottawa is despite the population difference.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 4:57 PM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.