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  #41  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 7:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trans Canada View Post
Annual growth from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014



Past 2 years of annual growth as measured per quarter



Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=

Great post. I wish I was good at graphing stuff, I'd love to see a ten year graph. I did Alberta's ten year average earlier today. It's approximately 900 000 people over 10 years, with an average yearly growth of about 89 000, though there have been significant fluctuations. From as low as 53 000 (beginning of recession) to as high as 120 000 (last year).
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  #42  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Uh, relax buddy. I wasn't 'bending' anything. I was responding to a poster (not an Albertan poster) who posted the comparison first. He was comparing regions of the country by comparable populations; the east, Ontario, and the west. Really nothing to get all jerky over. Maybe try doing a second of research before insulting people next time. Sound good?

Also, all 4 western provinces have relatively high rates of growth, Alberta's is just exceptionally high.
nah, not you. the clowns shoving BC/AB/SK/MA together and comparing to Ontario to make Alberta look bad.
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  #43  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy View Post
Australia is ground zero for global warming.
Another potential factor is US emigration. Americans have never really emigrated in significant numbers to any country. There are more Canadian born in the US than their are American born in Canada despite the US having 9 times our population. If the wealth discrepancy between rich and poor in the US continues to get widen and median income in Canada continues to bolt ahead of median income in the US we might see significant US emigration to Canada for the first time ever.

1 in 10,000 Americans moving here would work out to 32,000 people. They could potentially become our #1 source nation for immigrants. 1 in 2,000 works out to 160,000 people annually. If central Canada's economy can turn around I wouldn't rule out big numbers coming from the US as the middle class look to Plan B: Canada.
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  #44  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 2:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
I'm not sure what to make of PEI. Growing faster than Nova Scotia last quarter. Its population growth rate, if extrapolated to a province of Alberta's size, would be about 14,000 new people. If extrapolated to Ontario's size, it'd be about 46,000. (To put it another way, Ontario's population gain last quarter amounted to 1/348th of its population. PEI's was 1/293rd.)

Obviously the vast difference in scale means statistical anomalies are more likely in PEI's case, but the province posted consistently robust numbers like this until late 2012 (with the occasional weak quarter) when all of the Maritimes started flagging in a more serious way. Maybe they're picking up again; in any case, the numbers are so small that the the trend is lost—PEI is often among the fastest growing provinces, even as its Atlantic neighbours are the slowest.
Rural PEI doesn't seem to be having the extreme declines of rural Nova Scotia though, perhaps due to the agricultural industry. Rural NS is probably the fastest declining region in all of Canada, with any positive growth being due to offsetting growth in Halifax. Soon most likely over 50% of Nova Scotia's population will reside in Halifax.
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  #45  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 2:47 PM
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As for New Brunswick declining, that is heavily concentrated in rural areas (such as the north and northeast), offset partially by urban growth, correct?
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  #46  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 3:14 PM
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PEI also benefits from a successful provincially run immigration program. Rural NS hit a tipping point quite a while ago where there were so few people left of child bearing age that it was just a matter of time before the population imploded.

There are schools in rural NS that once had 500 students, but are now down below 20 kids. Once the current crop of kids finish school, the only people that will be left will be seniors. When they die these towns will disappear altogether.
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  #47  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 5:39 PM
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The parts of NS that have really been declining for the past 20+ years have rust belt style economies reliant on heavy industry (steel, coal, pulp mills) that have also been in decline for about the same period of time. The Sydney area has perhaps been the worst-hit if you look at where it is now compared to where it was around 1940-1970. Cape Breton county had 110,000 people in 1940 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Br...y#Demographics), back when the city of Calgary had about 90,000. People don't seem to talk about this much because it doesn't fit with the region's rural image. Rural NS in its heydey was as much a collection of towns built around industrial operations as it was a bunch of farms and fishing villages.

Kings, Colchester, and Hants counties in NS are a bit closer to PEI's agricultural economy, and they have stable or growing populations (up 1-2% during the last census period). They have the advantage of being close to the city, so some people can commute to urban jobs and others can at least easily get to the airport, hospitals, etc. Around 2/3 of the population of NS is already within an hour or so drive of the city. In the same way, most of the population of the Maritimes lives in the central part of the region that extends from central NS north to southern NB and PEI. If you were to look at the economy and demographics of this area it would be pretty average compared to Ontario or Quebec.
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  #48  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 6:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Tills13 View Post
nah, not you. the clowns shoving BC/AB/SK/MA together and comparing to Ontario to make Alberta look bad.
Oh haha! Sorry. I'm sure you can see why I got a little defensive there. Personal attacks against me are a daily occurrence here and mods couldn't give a shit.


To be honest though, I don't really think it makes AB look bad. It just skews the reality a bit.

For instance, over the past 10 years Alberta has grown by 890 000 people, MB has grown by about 110 000, Sask has grown by 132 000, and BC has grown by over 475 000. So while yes, Alberta contributed well over half of the west's over 1.6 million growth over the past ten years, all of the west had yearly growth averages over 10 000, and BC with nearly 50 000, and of course Alberta at around 90 000. With all four in the top four places for growth percentage over the past entire decade, it's really nothing to scoff at, but I see your point. The west average yearly long term growth is over 160 000.


Just for reference, Ontario grew by 1 290 000 during the same period with an average growth of 129 000/year.
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  #49  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 7:05 PM
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Here is all of Canada the way I just did the West and Ontario.


Ten-Year Growth Trends

Province---------------Growth----Growth/year

Ontario ------------------- 1 290 000 - 129 000
Alberta --------------------- 890 000 - 89 000
Quebec --------------------- 680 000 - 68 000
British Columbia ----------- 480 000 - 48 000
Saskatchewan ------------- 130 000 - 13 000
Manitoba ------------------- 110 000 - 11 000
Newfoundland & Labrador - 10 000 - 1 000
Prince Edward Island -------- 9 000 - 900
Nunavut ---------------------- 7 000 - 700
New Brunswick --------------- 5 000 - 500
Yukon ------------------------- 5 000 - 500
Nova Scotia ------------------- 3 000 - 300
Northwest Territories ----------- 300 - 30

Canada ------------------ 3 600 000 - 360 000


#s rounded to the nearest 10 000, 1 000, or 100 for clarity. All numbers approximate.
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  #50  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Another potential factor is US emigration. Americans have never really emigrated in significant numbers to any country. There are more Canadian born in the US than their are American born in Canada despite the US having 9 times our population. If the wealth discrepancy between rich and poor in the US continues to get widen and median income in Canada continues to bolt ahead of median income in the US we might see significant US emigration to Canada for the first time ever.

1 in 10,000 Americans moving here would work out to 32,000 people. They could potentially become our #1 source nation for immigrants. 1 in 2,000 works out to 160,000 people annually. If central Canada's economy can turn around I wouldn't rule out big numbers coming from the US as the middle class look to Plan B: Canada.
I don't see that happening in our lifetimes to be honest. The lower prices over there means Americans still have more purchasing power than us. Also the US economy has now recovered is growing at the same pace as the Canadian one.
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  #51  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 11:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Here is all of Canada the way I just did the West and Ontario.


Ten-Year Growth Trends

Province---------------Growth----Growth/year

Ontario ------------------- 1 290 000 - 129 000
Alberta --------------------- 890 000 - 89 000
Quebec --------------------- 680 000 - 68 000
British Columbia ----------- 480 000 - 48 000
Saskatchewan ------------- 130 000 - 13 000
Manitoba ------------------- 110 000 - 11 000
Newfoundland & Labrador - 10 000 - 1 000
Prince Edward Island -------- 9 000 - 900
Nunavut ---------------------- 7 000 - 700
New Brunswick --------------- 5 000 - 500
Yukon ------------------------- 5 000 - 500
Nova Scotia ------------------- 3 000 - 300
Northwest Territories ----------- 300 - 30

Canada ------------------ 3 600 000 - 360 000


#s rounded to the nearest 10 000, 1 000, or 100 for clarity. All numbers approximate.
Very informative
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  #52  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Another potential factor is US emigration. Americans have never really emigrated in significant numbers to any country. There are more Canadian born in the US than their are American born in Canada despite the US having 9 times our population. If the wealth discrepancy between rich and poor in the US continues to get widen and median income in Canada continues to bolt ahead of median income in the US we might see significant US emigration to Canada for the first time ever.

1 in 10,000 Americans moving here would work out to 32,000 people. They could potentially become our #1 source nation for immigrants. 1 in 2,000 works out to 160,000 people annually. If central Canada's economy can turn around I wouldn't rule out big numbers coming from the US as the middle class look to Plan B: Canada.
Intriguing thought. I for one would welcome (regulated) American immigration to Canada. The main hole in your thesis is that most Americans are freaking paranoid about cold weather, and most of them think we live in igloos. Of course, if climate change runs amok, and a good portion of the States desertifies, and Canadian climate moderates some more, then all bets might be off.

Of course, in that worst case scenario, I imagine the Americans would just invade us and take Canada over…..
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  #53  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy View Post
Anyone in this thread from PEI? What 's going on there that the population is growing vs. the other maritime provinces and Newfoundland?
Massive imbalance between st john's and the Island portion.

Rural newfoundland is as old as dirt.

Were gonna see a rapid die off, in much of the province in the next few decades.



The metro use to have about 1/3rd the NL population, now is getting bloody close to half.

Will be about 2/3rds by 2045.
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  #54  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy View Post
Anyone in this thread from PEI? What 's going on there that the population is growing vs. the other maritime provinces and Newfoundland?
Although I live in Moncton, I'm originally from PEI, so here goes.

Rural PEI has an entirely different economy than rural NS, NB or NL.

While there are farming areas in NB and NS (upper Saint John River Valley, Annapolis Valley), the rural portions of most of those two provinces are dominated by lumbering, mining and old style manufacturing mills. Those sort of industries come and go, and recently have been in steep decline. The Farming economy of PEI is far more stable.

In turn, while the rural economies of NB, NL and NS are dying, there are major urban centres in all four provinces which continue to grow (Halifax, St.John's, Moncton, Fredericton, Charlottetown). As such, in NS, NB and NL, the rural decline has been partially offset by urban growth. In PEI on the other hand, urban growth has been additive upon the stable rural population base and thus the overall population of the province is growing.

In 1891, PEI had a population of 108,000. By the 1930's, it had crashed to 88,000 because of consolidation of small rural farms. Since the 1930's, the population has been steadily growing and is now about 146,000. When I was a boy growing up in Charlottetown in the 1960's, the population was about 118,000.

This is not spectacular growth to be sure, but at least PEI is not shrinking like the rural portions of the other three provinces.
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  #55  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 12:36 AM
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Of course, in that worst case scenario, I imagine the Americans would just invade us and take Canada over…..
That would be challenging. In the time it takes them to assemble at the border, we can start lobbing dirty nukes over at them.

No doubt they would win, but it could be an incredibly dirty war.
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  #56  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 2:10 AM
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  #57  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 2:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Stryker View Post
Massive imbalance between st john's and the Island portion.

Rural newfoundland is as old as dirt.

Were gonna see a rapid die off, in much of the province in the next few decades.
Similar issues are already occuring in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Rural areas are very, very elderly. Given the isolated nature of some of the Newfoundland towns we are literally going to see some towns and villages evaporate in the next 20 years. It won't nearly be as drastic in NB & NS but we're going to continue to see shrinking populations in both if neither economies take off.
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  #58  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 3:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Great post. I wish I was good at graphing stuff, I'd love to see a ten year graph. I did Alberta's ten year average earlier today. It's approximately 900 000 people over 10 years, with an average yearly growth of about 89 000, though there have been significant fluctuations. From as low as 53 000 (beginning of recession) to as high as 120 000 (last year).
Thanks, glad you enjoyed.

Here's the past 11 years of annual growth, measured quarterly (to be clear this is measuring the growth on the same quarter of the prior year, so 2004 Q3 is measuring growth since 2013 Q3)



Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=
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  #59  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 7:38 AM
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Over the long term

I think the big 3 winners will be Alberta by a long shot then further back will be SK and MB. Alberta has so many things going for it that it's higher than national average population growth will continue for decades to come.

Even if oil prices start to fall there are other factors that will keep Alberta humming. Alberta is not only the youngest province by a wide margin but due to this it also has the highest birth rate. Alberta is also finally getting it's fair share of immigration and has overtaken BC in percentage of international immigrants and total number.........unheard of just 5 years ago.

Sask and Man will continue to do well as they are fairly diversified, are getting strong immigration numbers, low unemployment has meant few or no young people leaving the province to look for work, they have an average age under the national average and a high percentage of Natives who have the highest birthrates in the country.

BC will hold it's own but it's lose of immigrants to other Western provinces has hurt it as have the young leaving for much better paying jobs in Alberta and those fleeing the high real estate prices. It also has a much higher average age than any of the other Western provinces and a low birthrate which will hinder growth. That will be of set somewhat by BC's retirement and warmer climate which will always be a draw for migrants.
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  #60  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 6:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
... I was responding to a poster (not an Albertan poster) who posted the comparison first. ...
The poster in question is Albertan (born and raised). He has been fascinated with population statistics (and tall buildings) since he could count. Vaportrail loves Alberta and Canada and encourages the concept/philosophy of being a citizen of the world. Aside from an infrequently-displayed character flaw of speaking in third-person, he is bemused by those seemingly intent on exalting the negative, whether regionally-inspired or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
... He was comparing regions of the country by comparable populations; the east, Ontario, and the west. ...
And thought to share this (self-proclaimed) interesting observation with no regional favouritism or agenda implied, you are correct.

That is all.

Last edited by vaportrail; Sep 28, 2014 at 6:18 PM. Reason: Vaportrail does not require a reason.
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