HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Atlantic Provinces > St. John's


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #61  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 11:01 AM
J_Murphy's Avatar
J_Murphy J_Murphy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: St. John's, NL
Posts: 1,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
So the NDP surged at the expense of the Liberals and Tories according to CRA's most recent poll. Liberals are down to 50%, PCs at 27% and the NDP are up to 22%. Interesting few months ahead.
Is this another one of those polls that sample about 0.05% of the population and is accurate to within 5 percentage points, 95% of the time?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #62  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 12:40 PM
statbass statbass is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. John's
Posts: 1,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by J_Murphy View Post
Is this another one of those polls that sample about 0.05% of the population and is accurate to within 5 percentage points, 95% of the time?
To be fair though, all polls use the same methodology. Most people think a small portion being sampled is not representative, but that's not actually the case. If the sample is selected properly you don't need a large number for it to be representative. Albeit, the bigger the sample the higher it's precision (i.e. improves the margin of error)
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #63  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 12:44 PM
rthomasd rthomasd is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 426
I've been wondering how / if pollsters have adapted to the new realities of communications where more and more people don't have a land-line, have call-display and so don't answer pollsters, or treat pollsters as a joke just like they do internet comment sites (sort of like keyboard bravado).

So, how much accuracy is there really in polls? Do the people who pollsters catch, actually vote?

What does satisfaction with Government mean anyway? What are people's expectations from Government? I suspect many people think Government is a cash-cow and how can I get my share ( and sometimes your share as well).
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #64  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:12 PM
statbass statbass is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. John's
Posts: 1,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by rthomasd View Post
I've been wondering how / if pollsters have adapted to the new realities of communications where more and more people don't have a land-line, have call-display and so don't answer pollsters, or treat pollsters as a joke just like they do internet comment sites (sort of like keyboard bravado).

So, how much accuracy is there really in polls? Do the people who pollsters catch, actually vote?

What does satisfaction with Government mean anyway? What are people's expectations from Government? I suspect many people think Government is a cash-cow and how can I get my share ( and sometimes your share as well).
It's definitely not an easy task, that's for sure. Ultimately this is a line of business and I think if polls were very inaccurate these organizations would probably not exist.

Accuracy of polls can be a relative measure too. The degree of accuracy may not be extremely tight, but it does give (in this case) political parties vital information for campaigning purposes. But if the information is completely out to lunch then it's useless and were back to what I touched on above.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #65  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:19 PM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
CRA has always been fairly accurate with their polls. They did pretty well in PEI recently, New Brunswick last year and NL in 2011.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #66  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:41 PM
statbass statbass is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. John's
Posts: 1,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
CRA has always been fairly accurate with their polls. They did pretty well in PEI recently, New Brunswick last year and NL in 2011.
Exactly, there's the historical trend as well. They've always been accurate in the past so that's reason to believe this poll should be accurate.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #67  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:49 PM
SignalHillHiker's Avatar
SignalHillHiker SignalHillHiker is online now
I ♣ Baby Seals
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Sin Jaaawnz, Newf'nland
Posts: 34,641
The landline folks are the ones most likely to vote anyway so meh.
__________________
Note to self: "The plural of anecdote is not evidence."
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #68  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 2:04 PM
statbass statbass is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. John's
Posts: 1,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
The landline folks are the ones most likely to vote anyway so meh.
Occam's razor.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #69  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 1:58 PM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
Earle McCurdy just announced he's running in St. John's West, which likely means he'll face off against Dan Crummell and Siobhan Coady.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #70  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 5:30 PM
Horsell's Avatar
Horsell Horsell is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
Earle McCurdy just announced he's running in St. John's West, which likely means he'll face off against Dan Crummell and Siobhan Coady.
...which means he will probably lose to Siobhan Coady.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #71  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 6:06 PM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsell View Post
...which means he will probably lose to Siobhan Coady.
Or they'll both lose to Dan Crummell.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #72  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2015, 12:21 PM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
Lorraine Michael will face off against Paul Antle in St. John's Quidi-Vidi.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #73  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2015, 7:06 PM
Horsell's Avatar
Horsell Horsell is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
Lorraine Michael will face off against Paul Antle in St. John's Quidi-Vidi.
That could turn out to be interesting. No doubt there is solid NDP support in the district but is there soft NDP support that might lean towards the center. Pity the PC candidate.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #74  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2015, 1:58 PM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
George Murphy announces he will not run again. Should make Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville an interesting race with no incumbent.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #75  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2015, 11:33 AM
statbass statbass is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. John's
Posts: 1,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
George Murphy announces he will not run again. Should make Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville an interesting race with no incumbent.
I must say, I was surprised to hear that George Murphy will not run this upcoming election. Is Cathy Bennett running in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville? It'll be a interesting race for sure.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #76  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2015, 11:42 AM
PoscStudent's Avatar
PoscStudent PoscStudent is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St. John's
Posts: 3,752
Quote:
Originally Posted by statbass View Post
I must say, I was surprised to hear that George Murphy will not run this upcoming election. Is Cathy Bennett running in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville? It'll be a interesting race for sure.
No she opted for Windsor Lake.
Reply With Quote
     
     
End
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Atlantic Provinces > St. John's
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 9:45 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.