Is it time for Ontario to be split up into new Provinces?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I always thought it was from Fort Frances to Rainy River that was the most conservative part of Northwestern Ontario (where agriculture is more present)? I felt the NW and NE should be separate mainly due to its size and governing potential - more sense to be governed out of Thunder Bay (the obvious capital for a "Northwest" province) than out of, say, Sudbury.

Parry Sound and Muskoka are solidly conservative though, although they would represent only about 20% of the votes cast in a "Northeast" province. I included them in the NE because the ties to Toronto weaken greatly (they aren't included in the GGH) and they are in the Canadian Shield, with as many travelling to Sudbury or North Bay as to Barrie or southward these days. Still, combined with small pockets, it would create more minority governments...

Also the issues would be totally different. There would be no pressures from Toronto (and urban issues would largely fall off the radar), but issues like aboriginal affairs and forest development would be much bigger issues. In fact, in such provinces, most likely Anishinaabe would have to be treated in a similar respect as French.

I don't remember Fort Frances being conservative and as you go West from there you won't find much population. Former NDP leader Howard Hampton is from there.

One big factor that Parry Sound and Muskoka (aren't) part of Northern Ontario is that it is more of a touristy area, most people are ethnically British and it doesn't have mining and other resources as their main industries. Much of the properly owned in those districts is owned by those living in Southern cities. As someone who lives in Timmins, I find there it little to no economic connections to those areas. But our connection to Sudbury for example is huge.

I do agree with you that a separate Northern Ontario would be able to better handle issues concerning natural resources, land use planning and aboriginal/First Nations issues.

[vid]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If it became a separate province, I foresee a massive resource boom since it would be free from the clutches of Toronto environmentalists.

Do you not realize that we have environmentalists up here too? Bruce Hyer might have only joined the Greens after leaving the NDP, but he always was known to be an environmentalist. Most of the members of Thunder Bay's city council supports environmentalism, carbon pricing, the elimination of coal-generated power (though not the closure of our useless and expensive power plant), they support bike lanes in the city. They were each elected with an average of nearly 45% of the vote in their jurisdictions. One of them is actually a Green Party member. (Based on my best research, Thunder Bay's council is composed of 4 PCs, 4 Liberals, 3 NDP and 1 Green. The mayor claims to be a member of the PCs, but typically supports policies that are on the left wing party platforms.)

It wouldn't be as different up here as you'd think. We're probably be a lot like Quebec in terms of environmental policy: a bizarre amalgam of environmental protections and wanton resource extraction.

The agricultural areas of Northern Ontario, and some of Thunder Bay's exurban belt do vote Conservative, as do rural areas around Kenora and Dryden, but I don't think that they would ever actually result in the election of PC members there. Some parts of the region, at the provincial level, do follow the Prairies trend where the main options are NDP or PC, and the Liberals are a fringe.

As it is, the PCs have a very hard time just beating the Greens within Thunder Bay itself. If we were our own province and had smaller ridings (Manitoba sized, about 20,000 people each) I think the Greens would often come out ahead of the PCs in Thunder Bay itself, possibly even be elected depending on how one drew the riding in central Port Arthur (which has a strong support for Green politics).

We can't forget that in Northern Ontario, the NDP's support base is largely unionized factory workers, who at this point have been laid off and are aging. Since Kathleen Wynne was re-elected, I've noticed more and more people openly supporting the Liberals and Greens.

[vid]

Ultimately though, I think that if Northern Ontario did separate, we'd simply see a situation like Newfoundland where the PC party moves to the centre to compete more directly with the Liberals and NDP. We'd probably end up with the PCs as a centrist party and the NDP as a left wing party, with the Liberals marginalized to suburban areas. We'd probably follow Manitoba's lead and have NDP dynasties interrupted by short-lived PC governments. The Liberals would become less popular as in the current Ontario political climate, it would be the policies of the Liberals that would lead to us breaking away in the first place. They could easily become a party with a goal of rejoining the south.

[The Lakehead]

Northwestern Ontario needs to join Manitoba. Splitting the province seven ways isn't going to accomplish anything. There's no desire or need to separate anywhere but in Northern Ontario. Creating a regional government will just enable more bureaucracy, more red rape, more burden on the taxpayer, and it's doubtful that Queen's Park would relinquish any important powers. We would be left with more government and would be no better off. This could all be resolved and any murmurs of separation or joining Manitoba could be easily quelled if Queen's Park would actually make any effort to address any of our issues. But they don't. They haven't. And there is no point in the future where this will change.

We're simply not in the political equation. We don't have enough votes to matter. There is no reason to pander to us. The only progress we've achieved in the Thunder Bay area has been solely due to the fact we've been represented by a career politician who is a cabinet minister. Other parts of Northern Ontario aren't so lucky. What does Thunder Bay have to show for their great political representation? A medicine/law school and a few kilometers of twinned highway. Now don't get me wrong, these are great things and I'm certainly not turning my nose up at them. I would rather have them than not. However, there's no strategy for dealing with:

- The high cost of living in the north, in particular what to do when the climate changes enough that the winter roads become unreliable to ship much needed goods to resupply remote northern communities.
- Rampant homelessness, unemployment, drug addictions, and poverty, in particular on reserves and in the First Nations community.
- The Ring of Fire and other promising industrial developments. This project has been stalled when we could have had a road constructed at an absolute minimum.
- Declining populations in the north and how to attract people here.
- Resource management and conservation, and resource revenue sharing with First Nations, in particular a consultation framework.

This is just to name a few. Toronto cannot fathom these problems. Some of these come with the territory of living in a remote community. You cannot expect the same level of service as someone living in Toronto or Winnipeg or even Thunder Bay, if you live hundreds of kilometers from civilization. However, this is no excuse to ignore these problems entirely and not devote any attention or resources to resolving them. Winnipeg actually deals with many of the same problems that Thunder Bay faces. In this respect, our interests would align in addressing them.

If Northwestern Ontario were to join Manitoba, Thunder Bay would be by far the second largest city and provide some much-needed counterbalance to Winnipeg in Manitoba politics. Kenora and Dryden would also rank as important cities. Kenora is slightly larger than Steinbach and would be the fourth largest city, and Dryden is a similar size to Dauphin or Morden. It would give the TransCanada between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg some priority to be upgraded as it would connect the two largest cities. The cost of energy would dramatically fall in Northwestern Ontario and would give us a much-needed shot at attracting some heavy industry after Wynne has absolutely destroyed Ontario's energy sector.

Kenora is already firmly within Winnipeg's cultural, social, and economic sphere and it could be argued that everything up to Thunder Bay is as well. Even Marathon, ON is slightly closer by road to Winnipeg than it is to Toronto. There are downsides too. For example, Manitoba has higher taxes than Ontario. However, I would much rather pay slightly higher taxes than have a government that will completely disregard me because I'm not politically valuable. I think this is a far more viable option than becoming our own province with Northeastern Ontario which is far closer to Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal than we are.

[F. Lionel]

Originally Posted by The Lakehead

If Northwestern Ontario were to join Manitoba, Thunder Bay would be by far the second largest city and provide some much-needed counterbalance to Winnipeg in Manitoba politics. Kenora and Dryden would also rank as important cities. Kenora is slightly larger than Steinbach and would be the third largest city, and Dryden is a similar size to Dauphin or Morden. It would give the TransCanada between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg some priority to be upgraded as it would connect the two largest cities. The cost of energy would dramatically fall in Northwestern Ontario and would give us a much-needed shot at attracting some heavy industry after Wynne has absolutely destroyed Ontario's energy sector.

I have to agree with much of the above comment except that Kenora would rank fourth after Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, and Brandon. Kenora is similar in size to Steinbach but also to Thompson. Those three would constantly trade 4th/5th/6th place as commodity markets rose and fell.

I also don't think it would improve the priority that the TransCanada would be upgraded due to the increased cost. As it is Manitoba struggles to spend the money in order to upgrade the highway south to the US border which is, arguably, a much more important and beneficial trade route.

Forget that the Perimeter Highway is in such poor shape (with little funds trickling in to improve that) or the fact that Manitoba hasn't twinned the highway from Falcon Lake to the Ontario border nor has more than a plan to do so at this point (and that plan has been on the books for at least 20+ years).

[The Lakehead]

Thank you for the correction. I've edited my post to reflect that. Indeed, Kenora would be 4th, not 3rd.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by vid

We can't forget that in Northern Ontario, the NDP's support base is largely unionized factory workers, who at this point have been laid off and are aging. Since Kathleen Wynne was re-elected, I've noticed more and more people openly supporting the Liberals and Greens.

I'd say that the NDP's base in Northern Ontario was traditionally unionized workers. (especially in mining) But fewer people in mining today are unionized yet they still vote NDP probably because they think the party is their best option. Mining isn't a stable industry and having government to back you up in times of trouble is likely the mentality.

Today, in addition to those who are employees at natural resources (mining, forestry, etc.) companies, I'd say the NDP gets much of their support from lower income people, single parents, those receiving government/social assistance, Indigenous peoples and public sector employees. And those groups of people tend to make a larger percentage of the population in Northern Ontario compared to in the South.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by vid

Ultimately though, I think that if Northern Ontario did separate, we'd simply see a situation like Newfoundland where the PC party moves to the centre to compete more directly with the Liberals and NDP. We'd probably end up with the PCs as a centrist party and the NDP as a left wing party, with the Liberals marginalized to suburban areas. We'd probably follow Manitoba's lead and have NDP dynasties interrupted by short-lived PC governments. The Liberals would become less popular as in the current Ontario political climate, it would be the policies of the Liberals that would lead to us breaking away in the first place. They could easily become a party with a goal of rejoining the south.

At first I thought that there is no way the PCs would become government in a separate Norther Ontario but then I though of the past when the PCs did quite well here because they were a very centrist party. So I do have to agree that it would squeeze the Liberals and that the NDP would be the dominant party with the PCs being the alternative.

[ssiguy]

Of course your entire proposal rest on a false assumption............that Manitoba would want NW Ontario to join them.

Manitoba would have to take on the per-capita portion of Ontario's massive debt and provide a lot of infrastructure to a huge area unlike Manitoba now who's population is the least spread out of any of the 4 Western Provinces, Manitoba also spends a fortune on it's First Nation's social and health needs and taking on more may be something it definitely wants to avoid.

Before deciding on whether to join another province perhaps people in the NW should be asking Manitobans whether they even want you in the first place.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by The Lakehead

Northwestern Ontario needs to join Manitoba. Splitting the province seven ways isn't going to accomplish anything. There's no desire or need to separate anywhere but in Northern Ontario. Creating a regional government will just enable more bureaucracy, more red rape, more burden on the taxpayer, and it's doubtful that Queen's Park would relinquish any important powers. We would be left with more government and would be no better off. This could all be resolved and any murmurs of separation or joining Manitoba could be easily quelled if Queen's Park would actually make any effort to address any of our issues. But they don't. They haven't. And there is no point in the future where this will change.

We're simply not in the political equation. We don't have enough votes to matter. There is no reason to pander to us. The only progress we've achieved in the Thunder Bay area has been solely due to the fact we've been represented by a career politician who is a cabinet minister. Other parts of Northern Ontario aren't so lucky. What does Thunder Bay have to show for their great political representation? A medicine/law school and a few kilometers of twinned highway. Now don't get me wrong, these are great things and I'm certainly not turning my nose up at them. I would rather have them than not. However, there's no strategy for dealing with:

- The high cost of living in the north, in particular what to do when the climate changes enough that the winter roads become unreliable to ship much needed goods to resupply remote northern communities.
- Rampant homelessness, unemployment, drug addictions, and poverty, in particular on reserves and in the First Nations community.
- The Ring of Fire and other promising industrial developments. This project has been stalled when we could have had a road constructed at an absolute minimum.
- Declining populations in the north and how to attract people here.
- Resource management and conservation, and resource revenue sharing with First Nations, in particular a consultation framework.

This is just to name a few. Toronto cannot fathom these problems. Some of these come with the territory of living in a remote community. You cannot expect the same level of service as someone living in Toronto or Winnipeg or even Thunder Bay, if you live hundreds of kilometers from civilization. However, this is no excuse to ignore these problems entirely and not devote any attention or resources to resolving them. Winnipeg actually deals with many of the same problems that Thunder Bay faces. In this respect, our interests would align in addressing them.

If Northwestern Ontario were to join Manitoba, Thunder Bay would be by far the second largest city and provide some much-needed counterbalance to Winnipeg in Manitoba politics. Kenora and Dryden would also rank as important cities. Kenora is slightly larger than Steinbach and would be the fourth largest city, and Dryden is a similar size to Dauphin or Morden. It would give the TransCanada between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg some priority to be upgraded as it would connect the two largest cities. The cost of energy would dramatically fall in Northwestern Ontario and would give us a much-needed shot at attracting some heavy industry after Wynne has absolutely destroyed Ontario's energy sector.

Kenora is already firmly within Winnipeg's cultural, social, and economic sphere and it could be argued that everything up to Thunder Bay is as well. Even Marathon, ON is slightly closer by road to Winnipeg than it is to Toronto. There are downsides too. For example, Manitoba has higher taxes than Ontario. However, I would much rather pay slightly higher taxes than have a government that will completely disregard me because I'm not politically valuable. I think this is a far more viable option than becoming our own province with Northeastern Ontario which is far closer to Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal than we are.

Northwestern ON and Northeastern ON are almost the same so I just can't see only a part of Northern Ontario breaking away.

All of the issues that you mentioned that people are facing in NW ON are happening in NE ON. Every single one and about to the same extent.

I do understand that Manitoba would likely have a different approach to issues, I don't feel that joining the province would have significantly better results.

I feel that there should be certain things concerning Northern Ontario that only MPPs from here should be allowed to vote on. Some of those things include land-use management, natural resources extraction, municipal and regional boundaries, cultural affairs...

[landpirate]

I dont understand why were even discussing this as a real possibility when its never going to happen. Northern Ontario is staying within Ontario forever. That being said, the issues concerning the Northern parts of the province are real and should be discussed. This thread is fascinating reading.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by landpirate

I dont understand why were even discussing this as a real possibility when its never going to happen. Northern Ontario is staying within Ontario forever. That being said, the issues concerning the Northern parts of the province are real and should be discussed. This thread is fascinating reading.

Just like Nunavut would always be part of North West Territories?

Separation may never happen, but by threatening it, it makes the southern politicians wake up. I do wonder if a referendum were done what would be the outcome.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by landpirate

I dont understand why were even discussing this as a real possibility when its never going to happen. Northern Ontario is staying within Ontario forever. That being said, the issues concerning the Northern parts of the province are real and should be discussed. This thread is fascinating reading.

Northern Ontario will decide whether or not it wants to remain part of Ontario or become a new province. Realistically I don't see a new province happening in the next 20-30 years and maybe longer. But it can certainly happen and many people here want it to happen as our population becomes less and less significant as part of Ontario.

The more realistic thing would be for Northern Ontario to have the ability to make its own decisions on certain things which would include natural resources (mining, forestry, etc.) and land-use planning. People here get very upset when progress can't happen because of a bunch of Southern politicians not allowing it.

Other things that need to happen are cultural aspects that include recognition of Northern Ontario as being distinct and schools having units about here and our identity which includes many backgrounds and indigenous peoples.

Southern Ontario to me is somewhat like the relationship between Canada and the U.S.. We are friends but they know little about us and have lots of influence over us.

[landpirate]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Just like Nunavut would always be part of North West Territories?

Separation may never happen, but by threatening it, it makes the southern politicians wake up. I do wonder if a referendum were done what would be the outcome.

This is silly, provinces have far more authority over their territorial integrity than territories. Plus, greater control over natural resources. The territories are sparsely populated and there was a strong grassroots desire for smaller jurisdictions that could be more easily managed. Ontario is a completely different beast and theres no incentive for the South to give up the North. Like it or not, as a democratic body, the provincial government is not going to cede territory, Northern Ontario is not a "distinct nation" with historic claims or historical ethnic distinction, it cannot embark on a plebiscite for self rule or separation without the democratic permission from all of Ontario.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by landpirate

Ontario is a completely different beast and theres no incentive for the South to give up the North. Like it or not, as a democratic body, the provincial government is not going to cede territory, Northern Ontario is not a "distinct nation" with historic claims or historical ethnic distinction, it cannot embark on a plebiscite for self rule or separation without the democratic permission from all of Ontario.

Actually most of Northern Ontario is a distinct nation known as Nishnawbe-Aski Nation. If the First Nations come out strongly in favour of creating a new province then it would be taken seriously. If many municipal councils did the same then the province couldn't stay with the status quo.

[swimmer_spe]

In many current provinces, there is generally one area that has most of the population, most of the voters, and so, most of the money gets spent there.

Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC all have this issue.

Northern Ontario 4 major cities. None of them are so much more large than the others that it would draw the most money being spent to gain enough seats to win a majority of representation. The good thing is, even after the split, one city's population wont sky rocket more than their current natural progression. This means that unlike most provinces, there will never be a central vacuum of money. The money will be spread more over the entire province.

[landpirate]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Actually most of Northern Ontario is a distinct nation known as Nishnawbe-Aski Nation. If the First Nations come out strongly in favour of creating a new province then it would be taken seriously. If many municipal councils did the same then the province couldn't stay with the status quo.

I'm not trying to offend but only 8.8% of Northern Ontario's population are First Nations and Nishnawbe-Aski Nation are an umbrella organization that brought together several different First Nations linguistic groups under one umbrella for administrative purposes (primarily financial). This is not what constitutes a 'nation' under UN covenant. There's no grounds for a sectarian plebiscite without the Ontario government's permission.

[1overcosc]

^ In all seriousness, if a serious movement for separation emerged in Northern Ontario the province would probably call a referendum and respect the result.

I think a North-South divorce would be a lot of chaos at the start but in the end it would benefit both sides. The South would no longer have to pay the disproportionately high costs of public services in the North, and the North would have more freedom to develop the way it wants to and govern itself the way it wants to.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by landpirate

I'm not trying to offend but only 8.8% of Northern Ontario's population are First Nations and Nishnawbe-Aski Nation are an umbrella organization that brought together several different First Nations linguistic groups under one umbrella for administrative purposes (primarily financial). This is not what constitutes a 'nation' under UN covenant. There's no grounds for a sectarian plebiscite without the Ontario government's permission.

I'm pretty the aboriginal population is 12-15% of the total population but it's certainly growing very quickly. There are also the aspects of traditional territory which come into play.

The First Nations can define on their own what their nation is. I realize that Northern Ontario can't hold its own legal referendum but the Ontario government couldn't ignore it if large numbers of people here started revolting. I don't think that's going to happen right now but it could in the furture if there is more inequality with the South.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

^ In all seriousness, if a serious movement for separation emerged in Northern Ontario the province would probably call a referendum and respect the result.

I think a North-South divorce would be a lot of chaos at the start but in the end it would benefit both sides. The South would no longer have to pay the disproportionately high costs of public services in the North, and the North would have more freedom to develop the way it wants to and govern itself the way it wants to.

The problem in Northern Ontario is that we often don't feel as though we are a part of Ontario in general.