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  #21  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 8:49 PM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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I'd say that's probably correct - maybe even slightly higher (more around 406 maybe even 407,000). Certainly will require HRM to revisit the population projections for the Regional Plan, where the top out at 2027 was 425,000.
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  #22  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 9:15 PM
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Originally Posted by halifaxboyns View Post
I'd say that's probably correct - maybe even slightly higher (more around 406 maybe even 407,000). Certainly will require HRM to revisit the population projections for the Regional Plan, where the top out at 2027 was 425,000.
I doubt it, according to the city of St. John's (don't no how acurate their stats are) the CMA grew by 1.2% in 2010. St. John's, Halifax and Moncton have all been growing at the same rate over the last few years so unless Halifax's growth rate saw a big change then it wouldn't be quite that high.
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  #23  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 10:34 PM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
I doubt it, according to the city of St. John's (don't no how acurate their stats are) the CMA grew by 1.2% in 2010. St. John's, Halifax and Moncton have all been growing at the same rate over the last few years so unless Halifax's growth rate saw a big change then it wouldn't be quite that high.
Point taken, but even if the population is 405,000 - if that growth rate remains constant then it will still only take between 4 to 6 years to blow past the high growth scenario of the Regional Plan. That to me, is very impressive.
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  #24  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 2:50 PM
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Population estimates were released today by Statistics Canada for the estimated population of metropolitan cities across Canada as of July 2010. Halifax had a strong growth rate of 13.73 people per thousand (or 1.373%) http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t014-eng.htm . The growth rate has been increasing since 2005/2006 .

The total HRM population as of July 2010 was 403,188 - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t013-eng.htm . If the HRM continued to grow at 1.373% then by now (Feb 3, 2011) the population would be around 406K.

It should be noted that the population estimates include a factor to compensate for census under-counts (some people for one reason or another do not fill out the census forms). So the population estimates shouldn't be compared to the 2006 census numbers when determining growth rates. Likewise the 2006 census numbers shouldn't be used as the basis for the HRM population unless the under-count factor is included.

Various other population breakdown data is given here - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...leaux1-eng.htm
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  #25  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 4:32 PM
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We are probably past (or almost past) St. Catharines-Niagara by now, they were just ahead of us in July 2010 estimate at 404,357 (just over 1000 in the difference).

That would move us up to the 12th largest metropolitan area in Canada.
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  #26  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 6:30 PM
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
Population estimates were released today by Statistics Canada for the estimated population of metropolitan cities across Canada as of July 2010. Halifax had a strong growth rate of 13.73 people per thousand (or 1.373%) http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t014-eng.htm . The growth rate has been increasing since 2005/2006 .

The total HRM population as of July 2010 was 403,188 - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t013-eng.htm . If the HRM continued to grow at 1.373% then by now (Feb 3, 2011) the population would be around 406K.

It should be noted that the population estimates include a factor to compensate for census under-counts (some people for one reason or another do not fill out the census forms). So the population estimates shouldn't be compared to the 2006 census numbers when determining growth rates. Likewise the 2006 census numbers shouldn't be used as the basis for the HRM population unless the under-count factor is included.

Various other population breakdown data is given here - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...leaux1-eng.htm
Wow that's impressive and I completely agree with q12; I suspect Halifax has moved up.

Fenwick - you seem to be good with these population projection numbers so I'm wondering if you could do a calculation for me (I'm no good with this stuff). Let's assume the population growth they are showing remains constant - can you figure out what the population would be for 2017 and then 2027? I'm wondering (based on current growth) how far past the 425,000 cap in the regional plan we'd be by the time it expires?
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  #27  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by halifaxboyns View Post
Wow that's impressive and I completely agree with q12; I suspect Halifax has moved up.

Fenwick - you seem to be good with these population projection numbers so I'm wondering if you could do a calculation for me (I'm no good with this stuff). Let's assume the population growth they are showing remains constant - can you figure out what the population would be for 2017 and then 2027? I'm wondering (based on current growth) how far past the 425,000 cap in the regional plan we'd be by the time it expires?
Since the growth rates are average annual growth rates the formula is fairly simple (it is like calculating compounded interest on savings, you don't have to use an exponential formula) - reference http://pages.uoregon.edu/rgp/PPPM613/class8a.htm and http://waynesword.palomar.edu/lmexer9.htm#compound .

It is:

Population(future) = Population(present)(1 + r)^n (where ^n means to the power of the number of years, and r is the factional annual growth)

Based on 1.4% annual growth rate, in 6 years (Feb 2017) the population will be: population = 404,000(1 + 0.014)^6 = 439,000 in Feb 2017

Based on 1.4% annual growth rate, in 16 years (Feb 2027) the population will be: 404,000(1 + 0.014)^16 = 505,000 in Feb 2027

PS: If I knew how to display a superscript then the formula would look even simpler
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  #28  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 11:08 PM
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500,000 by 2027
not bad,
now all we have to do is keep this growth going
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  #29  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2011, 11:33 PM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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500,000 by 2027
not bad,
now all we have to do is keep this growth going
Or better yet; find a way to increase the growth.
Still - 505,000 by 2027 means we blow past the regional plan high growth scenario by 75,000.
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  #30  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 1:29 AM
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Sorry to revive a dead thread, but the wisdom and reflection of time makes the observations we made back in 2010-11 interesting looking at it today.

According to Stats Canada the metro population of Halifax as of July 2016 is 425,900.

Now I'm guessing that's how many live in the HRM, how many live in and around the urban core is a completely different mystery.

Halifax saw a year of record growth between 2015-16 with an increased of 8,200, that's 1.925% increase in growth, and over double what we had in the 2014-15 year. And they're predicting another strong potentially record breaking year of growth for the 2016-17 year and another strong one following that.

For the sake of simplicity let's just say we get an additional 8,000 citizens for the remaining four years that would be reflected in the census.

That would put Halifax at 454,900 to start off the second decade in the 21st century.

And in my opinion that's a conservative estimate, it's very possible that Halifax will see more growth then that.

So it seems that Halifaxboyns's predictions seem to be right in line for the year 2026 with hovering around 500,000

Sources:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...ic-growth.html
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  #31  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 12:50 PM
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And sadly, no new transportation infrastructure to move all those people in sight except for useless bike lanes.
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  #32  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 12:59 PM
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And sadly, no new transportation infrastructure to move all those people in sight except for useless bike lanes.
City planners are no doubt waiting for Jetson's style flying cars to solve the problem.
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  #33  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 1:37 PM
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If you look at the population data released this week and look at the "components of population growth" for provinces and territories, you can see that interprovincial migration is positive for Nova Scotia from July 2016 to June 2017, but a bit down from the previous year's high. Likewise, immigration is down a bit, but still the second-highest since at least 1970, which is as far back as the records go.

So it looks like we'll grow more slowly this year than last, but still far above recent norms. Also, the immigration decline isn't discouraging, since 2015-16 was bolstered by a one-time shot of about 1,200 Syrian refugees, most of whom arrived in that period of time. Subtract that one-time anomaly and 2016-17 was right around the previous year's level, or a bit above. Which is double what we used to typically get.
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  #34  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2017, 1:00 AM
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I think there was a weird anomaly for a few years where the city's economy was pretty good but immigration numbers lagged behind due to low immigration caps and the bungled provincial nomination program. It doesn't make much sense now for immigration to Halifax to be dramatically lower than it is in other Canadian cities (like, say, Charlottetown), particularly given how expensive Toronto and Vancouver have become.

I also believe that Halifax is a city that could stand generally to grow more and can easily accommodate more immigrants. The municipality needs to get into more of a growth mindset and invest in new infrastructure, but there is a lot of room for the city to fill in and there is a big advantage to growing Atlantic Canada's largest city. If Halifax had 500,000 people or 1,000,000 people it would open up some new opportunities for the region. Some hate to admit this it but there is regional value in having the port, airport, universities, nicer retail and touristy stuff, etc. that would not exist in a smaller city. For Nova Scotia the city is essential when it comes to paying for services in rural areas. If Halifax had 3x the tax base, highways and hospitals in Cape Breton would effectively be a lot more affordable. That is the situation in other provinces with bigger cities. The Maritimes are just behind.
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  #35  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2017, 7:47 PM
MolteN MolteN is offline
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Could not agree more about Nova Scotia will only benefit is Halifax grows, which is my I get headaches when I read stories like https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/halifaxs-dark-horse-bid-for-new-amazon-headquarters-sparks-soul-searching/article36421363/

These people have their heads so far up their asses that they are actually complaining about the possibility of Halifax growing Let's just imagine for a second that the rumor of Tesla setting up their new HQ here along with Amazon as well, could you imagine how big that would be for Halifax?!

I know with the current state the city is in that would never happen but if it did that would put Halifax on the map, and I feel the tech industry is Halifax's way and opportunity to prosper, geographically we're isolated from other major cities which makes Halifax hard to justify for off loading more cargo then what we're doing right now.

I'd say I'd be happy if Halifax achieved a size somewhere between 800,000 - 1,200,000. So roughly the same size as Winnipeg/Quebec city but slightly smaller then Edmonton / Calgary
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  #36  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2017, 8:15 PM
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The probability of Halifax getting an Amazon HQ is low but that article with the cycling coalition guy saying the city won't get it because of bad transportation options (not enough bike lanes?) is just noise.

Even if there is a 0.1% chance it makes sense for the city to bid. And there is a chance that a smaller city will be chosen for affordability and other reasons. There are many comparatively small American cities that have major HQs, and wherever Amazon goes they will have to hire talent internationally.
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Last edited by someone123; Sep 29, 2017 at 8:39 PM.
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  #37  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2017, 9:55 PM
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It's not about "not wanting the city to grow". It would be detrimental if Amazon set up here. Think of it this way: We have a labour force of 240,000. If Amazon brought its 50,000 jobs to town, the existing labour force would absorb only a fraction of it. We would need to import the large majority of those people, nearly a decade of growth within, what, a few months or a year? With all the attendant stresses on housing, transportation, etc.

Even if we make the case that that's a problem worth dealing with for the payoff, we would then have a situation in which a labour force of 290,000 people would be dependent for 50,000 of those jobs on a single company. We might as well call ourselves Bezos-ville. We would instantly become what I imagine would be the least diversified urban economy in Canada and maybe North America, dependent for one-sixth of our jobs on one employer, in one industry. This is not a desirable situation in the long term, for so, so many reasons.

Halifax has a strong emerging tech sector, but it's so classically Maritime to think that the logical way to leverage that is to attract a big-shot tech giant from somewhere to shower us with its money. Let's build homegrown companies. Or at the very least, chase after attainable and reasonable injections of money and jobs from elsewhere, not earth-shaking paradigm shifts that would put massive stress on infrastructure and social life and basically change the entire nature of the city overnight, and thereafter make us vulnerable to the ups and downs of a single company's fortunes.
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  #38  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2017, 10:13 PM
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The probability of Halifax getting an Amazon HQ is low but that article with the cycling coalition guy saying the city won't get it because of bad transportation options (not enough bike lanes?) is just noise.

Even if there is a 0.1% chance it makes sense for the city to bid. And there is a chance that a smaller city will be chosen for affordability and other reasons. There are many comparatively small American cities that have major HQs, and wherever Amazon goes they will have to hire talent internationally.
Wedgie is a bit of a know-it-all and often comes across as a jackass with his continual bikes-are-good, cars-are bad rhetoric. He a close pal of Mason though, which partly explains the excess of unused bike lanes we are saddled with.
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  #39  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2017, 5:26 AM
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If Amazon brought its 50,000 jobs to town, the existing labour force would absorb only a fraction of it. We would need to import the large majority of those people, nearly a decade of growth within, what, a few months or a year? With all the attendant stresses on housing, transportation, etc.
This simply isn't possible though. It's probably not even possible in a much larger city, unless most of those 50,000 are just unskilled workers. It takes a lot of effort to hire professionals. I would bet money that wherever they pick there will be nowhere near 50,000 new workers hired within the first year. And if they plan to build a large campus it will take many years, particularly in a large metropolitan area. Halifax is well-run and easy to navigate compared to most big US cities.

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Even if we make the case that that's a problem worth dealing with for the payoff, we would then have a situation in which a labour force of 290,000 people would be dependent for 50,000 of those jobs on a single company. We might as well call ourselves Bezos-ville. We would instantly become what I imagine would be the least diversified urban economy in Canada and maybe North America, dependent for one-sixth of our jobs on one employer, in one industry. This is not a desirable situation in the long term, for so, so many reasons.
Why? I think less diversity is bad, all else being equal, but in this case you are talking about adding more jobs.

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Halifax has a strong emerging tech sector, but it's so classically Maritime to think that the logical way to leverage that is to attract a big-shot tech giant from somewhere to shower us with its money. Let's build homegrown companies.
I agree that homegrown companies and smaller organic branch offices (like Tesla based on a Dal research partnership if that happens) are the most likely reality and probably the most fruitful thing to invest in. But I think these "bids" are turned into a giant and terrible straw man when in reality they are a net positive. They don't divert a significant amount of city's economic development money or bureaucratic bandwidth. They are not embarrassing to the city either, as some people claim. The fact that Halifax shows up in these lists is a big positive. It means more people will notice the city and think about it as a place to live and invest. In the past, a poor or nonexistent image was a big part of the problem in Halifax. Locals tended to think that it was worse than everywhere else, Canadians tended to think all of Atlantic Canada was bad, and nobody else knew the city existed.
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