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  #6601  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 11:58 AM
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Here is al list of Southern Ontario cities where the average price of a new home has increased 20% or more over the past year.

Toronto: 33%

Barrie: 30.9%

Niagara Region: 26%

Peterborough: 25%

Kitchener-Waterloo: 24.2%

London: 20.7%

Windsor: 20.5%

Hamilton: 20.3%
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  #6602  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 1:25 PM
d_jeffrey d_jeffrey is offline
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http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie...mont-royal.php

Basically what it says is that Chinese investors are now buying in anglophones neighborhoods in Montréal and the buyers explicitely said it's because of the Vancouver foreign tax. Chinese are not buying in francophone neighborhoods at all. The text said that the Chinese don't want to be in Outremont because it has jews, is that a racist stereotype for Chinese?!

The article ends by saying that if Toronto puts in a tax, the market will explode in Montréal.
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  #6603  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 1:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d_jeffrey View Post
http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie...mont-royal.php

Basically what it says is that Chinese investors are now buying in anglophones neighborhoods in Montréal and the buyers explicitely said it's because of the Vancouver foreign tax. Chinese are not buying in francophone neighborhoods at all. The text said that the Chinese don't want to be in Outremont because it has jews, is that a racist stereotype for Chinese?!

The article ends by saying that if Toronto puts in a tax, the market will explode in Montréal.
They may not be interested in residential properties in francophone areas but they're buying up bars and other businesses in francophone areas like crazy.

In the city of Gatineau (where almost every neighbourhood can be said to be "francophone") it's close to a majority of licensed establishments (bars) that are now owned by Chinese investors, following a huge buying blitz over the past five years or so.
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  #6604  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 1:53 PM
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So basically, start buying real estate in non-jewish anglo neighbourhoods...Got it.
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  #6605  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 1:55 PM
d_jeffrey d_jeffrey is offline
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
They may not be interested in residential properties in francophone areas but they're buying up bars and other businesses in francophone areas like crazy.

In the city of Gatineau (where almost every neighbourhood can be said to be "francophone") it's close to a majority of licensed establishments (bars) that are now owned by Chinese investors, following a huge buying blitz over the past five years or so.
They actually own 1/3 of all Montréal's dépanneurs. Chinese résidents here are definitely not as rich as those in Vancouver and Toronto though. Visitors from China increased more than 4x since direct flights were available from Beijing last fall, I expect the direct flights from Shanghai will also boost tourism and acquisitions.
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  #6606  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 3:58 PM
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Here are the year to date stats for my area New Tecumseth (towns of Alliston, Beeton, Tottenham). This area has zero public transportation, and is all country with small towns. For those who aren't aware of the exact location, its about 25-30 minutes SW of Barrie, about 35-40 minutes NW of Vaughan.

Average Sale Price For 1st Quarter 2017:
$610,828
Average Sale Price For 1st Quarter 2016: $455,703
Average Sale Price For 1st Quarter 2015: $376,935

Increase in prices over 2 years: 62%

NUMBER OF SALES SO FAR IN 2017:
217 (up 71% over last year)
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET IN 2017 SO FAR: 16 (down 33% from last year)
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  #6607  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 4:12 PM
d_jeffrey d_jeffrey is offline
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Seems that a bubble is indeed being created in Montréal also. Prices for houses on the island of Montréal up 14% YoY.

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie...a-montreal.php
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  #6608  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 4:48 PM
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Edmonton high-end homes set a record pace.

http://edmontonjournal.com/news/loca...s-sales-rising
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  #6609  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 4:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d_jeffrey View Post
http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie...mont-royal.php

Basically what it says is that Chinese investors are now buying in anglophones neighborhoods in Montréal and the buyers explicitely said it's because of the Vancouver foreign tax. Chinese are not buying in francophone neighborhoods at all. The text said that the Chinese don't want to be in Outremont because it has jews, is that a racist stereotype for Chinese?!

The article ends by saying that if Toronto puts in a tax, the market will explode in Montréal.
Fingers crossed the Chinese will quickly discover that there are barely any Jews in Sherbrooke... and given how exceptionally slowly the City moves in all such business, no need to worry about a Vancouver-style Chinese Tax in any of our lifetimes
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  #6610  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:10 PM
geotag277 geotag277 is offline
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Lots of conflation of terms in this thread.

First of all, unsustainable growth is not a bubble. Unsustainable growth is just projecting one year growth and determining it cannot continue indefinitely. That is not technically a bubble. There could be many reasons for one year of higher than normal growth, that eventually levels out. Or there could be economic conditions (such as in Alberta) that pull the price down. None of these consequences are indicative of an actual "bubble".

On a related point, if everybody agrees that single family detached housing is not the future of Toronto housing stock, then you must agree that single family detached housing plots will likely get more and more expensive. As these lots are redeveloped into sustainable multi family developments, the remaining housing stock in this form will become more and more valuable as it becomes increasingly limited and the land becomes valued for multi family style values.

Finally, I find it to be rather extreme cognitive dissonance to conclude that Toronto is "overbuilding", while at the same time condo prices are increasing, while at the same time saying "building more isn't working".

Firstly, just because Toronto had a record year of units added to the market does not mean that "supply isn't the problem". It could be argued rather compellingly that Toronto has a long history of under-building, especially before around 2007, and that the pace of building in recent years is what Toronto should have been doing for decades.

Secondly, if we can conclude that domestic speculation is the root cause for these elevated price levels, then building more is exactly the way to level out the gains. There is a finite number of domestic speculators who have the financial ability to continually invest in these units, and we will hit a point (rather soon considering Canadian debt levels) where speculators run out of capital and the market balances.

Finally, I cannot reconcile the fight against "overbuilding" with the fight for affordable housing. In terms of affordable housing, there is no such thing as "overbuilding". If we build too many units, the market will sort itself out. "Overbuilding" should always be the goal, because that "over" part implies we are reaching a point where there is path towards lowering the average cost of housing.

Build build build and build more.

And people who are fighting against "overbuilding" should be careful. You are advocating for pulling back on housing stock artificially for the sake of protecting existing investments. One large unregulated danger of the real estate market is that everybody - from developers to real estate agents - expect the price to increase, and increasing prices in general - are the catalyst for getting people interested in the real estate market in the first place and developers building. The market intrinsically expects the price to increase (or at the very least stabilize) to maintain the inertia of the market. By advocating against "overbuilding", you are artificially taking units out of the equation, making existing units even more valuable, and running the very real risk of multiple more years of "unsustainable growth", with prices normalizing around an artificially elevated "new normal". No matter what your opinion, if you advocate for affordable housing, building more supply is never going to be a bad thing, and while of course it could be argued that other measures should be implemented at the same time, never take future supply potential off the table.
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  #6611  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:13 PM
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My home is gonna be worth a cool mill. soon.

I guess I should start planning for an earlier early-retirement.
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  #6612  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
Finally, I find it to be rather extreme cognitive dissonance to conclude that Toronto is "overbuilding", while at the same time condo prices are increasing, while at the same time saying "building more isn't working".
More or less agree. Realistic situations can be conceived that would actually result in building more not working. For example, if the units built are essentially treated as giant brick-and-mortar BitCoins by the buyers, who have zero intention of ever bothering with leases, credit checks and evictions, you can have the two conditions co-existing.

In effect, what's happening is that you have a decoupling of real estate as housing and real estate as strictly an useless investment asset (as useless as an gold ingot or some jewelry).

If everything that gets built ends up in the "gold bar in a safe" category -- in other words, it doesn't serve as housing -- and you continue to have an external source of investors that isn't drying up -- China, which can be approximated to an infinite supply of multimillionaires on a Canadian scale -- then you won't see the costs of housing going down despite all the overbuilding.

The prices of the brick-and-mortar BitCoins won't crash as long as these out-of-scale buyers are able to continue to do what they're doing.

Sure, it's guaranteed that at some point, overbuilding will drive prices down. That point is just really, really far away compared to what you'd expect, due to the fact that the pool of buyers is of an order of magnitude that's approximately endless from the point of view of local markets and near/medium future.
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  #6613  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim View Post
So basically, start buying real estate in non-jewish anglo neighbourhoods...Got it.
Aren't Jewish and Anglo kind of one and the same in Montreal? I was under the impression that Jews make up a huge chunk of the remaining anglo population.
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  #6614  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:38 PM
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^
Geotag, unsustainable price increases over 12 years IS a bubble, of epic proportions.

I thank all those that provided info on the Quebec scenario, I wasn't aware of those details. It appears we're heading to a Japan-like real estate tsunami once the Chinese credit bubble pops.
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  #6615  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:41 PM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
Aren't Jewish and Anglo kind of one and the same in Montreal? I was under the impression that Jews make up a huge chunk of the remaining anglo population.
They do. The anglo population on the Island of Montreal in particular is primarily Jewish and Italian today. Lots of Greeks too.

But in this case, it's likely Hasidic Orthodox Jews that are being referred to, not your run-of-the-mill secular Jews that fit in seamlessly with the wider anglo population.
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  #6616  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 5:54 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Fingers crossed the Chinese will quickly discover that there are barely any Jews in Sherbrooke... and given how exceptionally slowly the City moves in all such business, no need to worry about a Vancouver-style Chinese Tax in any of our lifetimes
Well looks like it since Sherbrooke experienced the highest percentage raise in Canada annually, ahead of Toronto? http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea...tics-1.3983593
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  #6617  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 6:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
They do. The anglo population on the Island of Montreal in particular is primarily Jewish and Italian today. Lots of Greeks too.

But in this case, it's likely Hasidic Orthodox Jews that are being referred to, not your run-of-the-mill secular Jews that fit in seamlessly with the wider anglo population.
I wasn't able to view the original article, but to use "Jews" as Montreal shorthand for Hasidim living in Outrement creates a rather distorted impression of Chinese buyers, istm. I'm not aware that the Chinese have any issues with the Jewish community at large. It wouldn't be reflected in the case of some neighbourhoods favoured by buyers in Toronto.
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  #6618  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 6:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
^
Geotag, unsustainable price increases over 12 years IS a bubble, of epic proportions.

I thank all those that provided info on the Quebec scenario, I wasn't aware of those details. It appears we're heading to a Japan-like real estate tsunami once the Chinese credit bubble pops.
Regardless, it's also very revealing about the tentacular economic power of China and the Chinese, from strip clubs in Gatineau to Vancouver condos to copper mines in central Africa.
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  #6619  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 6:10 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I wasn't able to view the original article, but to use "Jews" as Montreal shorthand for Hasidim living in Outrement creates a rather distorted impression of Chinese buyers, istm. I'm not aware that the Chinese have any issues with the Jewish community at large. It wouldn't be reflected in the case of some neighbourhoods favoured by buyers in Toronto.
In my experience, the mainland Chinese aren't particularly racist, they're just blunt and open about their stereotypes and tend to change their views with greater exposure and knowledge. Probably the most down to earth and friendly global power community in living memory (certainly a lot easier going than Japanese, Americans and Russians when they were buying up all and sundry).
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  #6620  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2017, 6:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I wasn't able to view the original article, but to use "Jews" as Montreal shorthand for Hasidim living in Outrement creates a rather distorted impression of Chinese buyers, istm. I'm not aware that the Chinese have any issues with the Jewish community at large. It wouldn't be reflected in the case of some neighbourhoods favoured by buyers in Toronto.
Well, it's only one guy who said it.

« Ce n'est pas un marché [Outremont] recherché par les Chinois, a expliqué William Gong, courtier chez Engel & Völkers et spécialisé auprès de la clientèle asiatique. C'est d'abord et avant tout un quartier francophone où l'on trouve une forte communauté juive. »

I have no idea if the Chinese have any issue with the Hasidim.

If anything, places like Westmount and Ville Mont-Royal may have higher percentages of Jews than Outremont (which is about 15% Jewish IIRC).

Though in Outremont they're almost all Hasidim. In other parts of Montreal they're almost all secular.
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