Queen's Park Politics

[Loco101]

Latest poll with a large sample from Mainstreet:

PC: 32%

Undecided: 25%

Liberal: 22%

NDP: 17%


For decided voters:

PC: 40%

Liberal: 30%

NDP: 24%

Source: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ont...ecided-column/

[vid]

That's a pretty big chunk of undecided voters. It would be a wasted effort at this stage to try to predict the outcome of an election that's 14 months away.

[toaster]

Interesting. I heard about a poll on the radio this morning ( will try to find out who it was) that said the Liberals would only win 7? seats, and no longer maintain official party status.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by toaster

Interesting. I heard about a poll on the radio this morning ( will try to find out who it was) that said the Liberals would only win 7? seats, and no longer maintain official party status.

At 19%, that is probably overblown since it requires both gains from the NDP and PC's to knock them that low (that poll has 9 points behind the NDP who have much more support in places like southwestern Ontario, which should keep at least the urban strongholds in red hands), and maintain a base at least in urban Toronto (like the old city). Still, they would certainly drop to third party status with almost every poll, and get a much-deserved time in the wilderness.

To lose official party status, I would think both the NDP and PC's would need to be at least 12-15 points ahead of them, at which point it wouldn't take much to wipe them off the map.

[HillStreetBlues]

I think vid's right- there's still a long while before the next election.*

The Grits were polling third through 2012 up until after Wynne's leadership appointment. They were never a clear favourite over the Tories in polling, right up until the vote. I won't be at all surprised if the Tories lose it again.

*I find it fun to speculate about what might happen in any given election, but it's a bit offensive when I hear media and politicians implying that the election is "right around the corner." The government has a year of governing, and the opposition has a year of holding them to account. That's what they should be doing; not campaigning.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I think vid's right- there's still a long while before the next election.*

The Grits were polling third through 2012 up until after Wynne's leadership appointment. They were never a clear favourite over the Tories in polling, right up until the vote. I won't be at all surprised if the Tories lose it again.

*I find it fun to speculate about what might happen in any given election, but it's a bit offensive when I hear media and politicians implying that the election is "right around the corner." The government has a year of governing, and the opposition has a year of holding them to account. That's what they should be doing; not campaigning.

It all depends on how they do in the big cities, mainly the GTA - if they lose their fortress, there is nowhere else to turn. They are dead in the water in rural and small town Ontario, in fact I would expect them to finish a distant 3rd - or worse - in pretty much every rural riding.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by toaster

Interesting. I heard about a poll on the radio this morning ( will try to find out who it was) that said the Liberals would only win 7? seats, and no longer maintain official party status.

Probably one of those garbage Campaign Research or Forum Research polls, both of which have been over-exaggerating PC support for quite some time now. The PCs are leading, yes, but not by nearly as much as those polls would make you think. Only listen to Nanos, for the most part. Or maybe Mainstreet... their track record isn't that bad actually, despite using less accurate IVR tech.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Probably one of those garbage Campaign Research or Forum Research polls, both of which have been over-exaggerating PC support for quite some time now. The PCs are leading, yes, but not by nearly as much as those polls would make you think. Only listen to Nanos, for the most part. Or maybe Mainstreet... their track record isn't that bad actually, despite using less accurate IVR tech.

I don't listen to Nanos. He's has a very pro-Liberal bias, obvious to anyone who has seen him on any of the news programs.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by toaster

I don't listen to Nanos. He's has a very pro-Liberal bias, obvious to anyone who has seen him on any of the news programs.

A family member of mine is good friends with one of the Nanos brothers and told me that the brothers are staunch Conservative supporters. I have to agree that Nanos polls are generally the most accurate going by previous election results.

Some polling companies have obvious biases and really do their best to make the parties they support seem more popular. The funny thing is that doing that often backfires.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I think vid's right- there's still a long while before the next election.*

The Grits were polling third through 2012 up until after Wynne's leadership appointment. They were never a clear favourite over the Tories in polling, right up until the vote. I won't be at all surprised if the Tories lose it again.

*I find it fun to speculate about what might happen in any given election, but it's a bit offensive when I hear media and politicians implying that the election is "right around the corner." The government has a year of governing, and the opposition has a year of holding them to account. That's what they should be doing; not campaigning.

The PCs were "supposed to" have won the last two elections but didn't mainly due to the poor leadership of Tim Hudak who tried to create wedge issues that offended large segments of the population. So far, Patrick Brown is seen as weak, wobbly and with no platform but he and his current MPPs will have to avoid major blunders and going too far right to stay in the game.

It is interesting to note that during the 2014 election campaign, some polling companies showed the PCs leading throughout the entire campaign and even in the final days. But for almost all of the polling, the swing to the Liberals was only noticeable in the last 3 days of the campaign.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by toaster

I don't listen to Nanos. He's has a very pro-Liberal bias, obvious to anyone who has seen him on any of the news programs.

Except Nanos is factually speaking the most accurate pollster on the market. Their poll numbers are always spot on in every election they've ever polled. The only other pollster in Canada that even comes close is Mainstreet.

[vid]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I think vid's right- there's still a long while before the next election.*

The Grits were polling third through 2012 up until after Wynne's leadership appointment. They were never a clear favourite over the Tories in polling, right up until the vote. I won't be at all surprised if the Tories lose it again.

*I find it fun to speculate about what might happen in any given election, but it's a bit offensive when I hear media and politicians implying that the election is "right around the corner." The government has a year of governing, and the opposition has a year of holding them to account. That's what they should be doing; not campaigning.

There is also a year for the PCs to figure out who their leader is and what they stand for, because so far, most people don't know.

The big issue among PCs in Northern Ontario right now is opposition to a provincial bill requiring septic tanks to be emptied at least once every five years, which is all well and good, but most of our ridings have a majority of people on civic wastewater systems, not septic systems, so I don't seem them gaining much ground with this one. It's just preaching to the choir.

Still very little on the Hydro issue from the local PCs and when they do bring it up, most comments chastise them for Harris' actions to Ontario Hydro and their lack of a plan to actually do anything about the high prices, so it's certainly not their strong point. I'd say the NDP beats them on the hydro issue and if that's the big one, the Liberals will lose ground to them in rural areas more than to the PCs.

If the NDP really hammer home that they're the party of lower hydro rates, they'll win pretty big in 2018. They've got a year to do it.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by vid

There is also a year for the PCs to figure out who their leader is and what they stand for, because so far, most people don't know.

The big issue among PCs in Northern Ontario right now is opposition to a provincial bill requiring septic tanks to be emptied at least once every five years, which is all well and good, but most of our ridings have a majority of people on civic wastewater systems, not septic systems, so I don't seem them gaining much ground with this one. It's just preaching to the choir.

Still very little on the Hydro issue from the local PCs and when they do bring it up, most comments chastise them for Harris' actions to Ontario Hydro and their lack of a plan to actually do anything about the high prices, so it's certainly not their strong point. I'd say the NDP beats them on the hydro issue and if that's the big one, the Liberals will lose ground to them in rural areas more than to the PCs.

If the NDP really hammer home that they're the party of lower hydro rates, they'll win pretty big in 2018. They've got a year to do it.

I have to agree with that.

The NDP has been right about hydro for a very long time. I remember the 2007 election campaign where the NDP under leader (and Northerner) Howard Hampton made hydro the their main issue in the party platform. It was called "Public Power" and was about how privatization and even just having the private sector more involved with hydro (feed in tariffs, etc) would cause rates to skyrocket. Hampton even wrote a book with the same name a number of years before that campaign.


Article from about a month ago: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/comm...er-walkom.html

[toaster]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Except Nanos is factually speaking the most accurate pollster on the market. Their poll numbers are always spot on in every election they've ever polled. The only other pollster in Canada that even comes close is Mainstreet.

Do you have a link for this? Not trying to argue, I'm genuinely curious to see, and compare.

Thanks!!

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by toaster

Do you have a link for this? Not trying to argue, I'm genuinely curious to see, and compare.

Thanks!!

Here's a link showing their recent track record: http://www.nanosresearch.com/tickers...k%20Record.pdf

[Loco101]

The Ontario Liberal Party is now going after PC leader Patrick Brown. It reminds me of a series of TV ads the Mike Harris PCs ran about former Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty in the late 1990s. Here is one of those ads: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsZyF8BhLB0

Now the current one:

[Loco101]

I know it's a TorStar article but still....

Brown nixes plan for Tory hydro policy on rates this year

Patrick Brown has zapped plans for his Progressive Conservatives to release any policy this year on reducing hydro rates.

By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief
Rob FergusonQueen's Park Bureau
Mon., April 3, 2017

Patrick Brown has zapped plans for his Progressive Conservatives to reveal their policy on reducing hydro rates.

While Brown promised last month that the Tories would reveal their proposal to lower electricity by spring, he confirmed Monday that it is now on the backburner for this year.

“We will certainly have our hydro plan out before the next election,” the PC leader said, referring to the June 7, 2018 vote.

“It’ll be in our platform. We don’t want to simply borrow money for temporary solutions. We want the government to fix the structural mess they’ve created,” he said.

“(When) we release policy will not be on the NDP’s timeline or the Liberal timeline; it’ll be based on collecting good ideas, good evidence, analyzing some of the real structural challenges.”

Brown’s comments come after the Liberals last month promised an additional 17 per cent relief, beyond the eight-per-cent cut that took effect Jan. 1, for a 25-per-cent reduction this year.

The rate decrease will be financed by amortizing the costs of new hydro system investments over 30 years, at an annual cost to the treasury of $1.83 billion.

Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault charged that Brown’s Tories are keeping voters in the dark on what their party would do about hydro rates as part of a strategy to “hide for as long as you can” in advance of next year’s election.

“Being a good opposition is having a proposition as well . . . talking about what you would do differently, rather than constantly shake your fist and complain.

“To me, it just shows a lack of courage on his part,” said Thibeault.

“He doesn’t want to do anything other than just ride into winning government in 2018. Government takes a lot of hard work. You’ve got to make tough decisions. He’s continuing to take the easy way out on this,” he said, adding the Liberal plan offers “tangible ideas on the way we’re going to help people.”

The New Democrats have also pledged to slash rates by as much as 30 per cent with a slew of measures, including stopping the privatization of the Hydro One transmission utility.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said it’s “disappointing” that Brown is avoiding entry to the policy fray.

“I believe our plan is what gave the Liberals an impetus to get moving on this issue,” said Horwath, blasting the PC chief.

“That’s the thing with this particular leader. I mean, he’s been around for 17 years in politics, but nobody really knows what he believes or what his plans are,” she said.

“This is a huge issue for the people of Ontario, and we need to see what the various parties’ plans are.”

The Tories, who enjoy a large lead over the Liberals and New Democrats in public-opinion polls, have scheduled a policy conference for November in Toronto.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queensp...this-year.html

[vid]

Wow, I've never seen a political party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so early before!

They should replace Brown.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by vid

Wow, I've never seen a political party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so early before!

They should replace Brown.

Who would he be replaced by? Monte McNaughton?

[HillStreetBlues]

Christine Elliott would have been the best choice in 2015...

Now? Maybe Steve Clark, or John Yakabuski, or Sylvia Jones.