Who will replace Harper?

[travis3000]

Patrick Brown is not really as big of a social conservative as people seem to believe. He's branded that way yes, because of his voting record in the house. But I've spoken with Brown on many occasions in person (I live near Barrie and have him on Facebook as well). He supports gay marriage, he told me privately, I don't know if I am supposed to be repeating our conversations but given his activity recently, Im sure he wouldn't mind. He attends gay pride as well as pride flag raising ceremonies in Barrie, and did recently in Toronto. He has commercials running on TV showing him marching in Pride. He's in the process of re-branding himself in Ontario to be more central. Contrary to popular belief he told me that if he became Premier he would not change the sex-ed curriculum. He's fiscally conservative for sure though and wants to make his mandate (if he wins) about lowering hydro rates, halting investment in wind turbines, returning the province to surpluses, focus on eliminating red tape for business, promote entrepreneurial ventures, among several other things. The next election is 30 months away, so the platform hasn't been made up yet.

In my opinion, Patrick Brown will be the next Premier of Ontario. Just a hunch of I have from feeling out the political atmosphere currently in Ontario.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Patrick Brown is not really as big of a social conservative as people seem to believe. He's branded that way yes, because of his voting record in the house. But I've spoken with Brown on many occasions in person (I live near Barrie and have him on Facebook as well). He supports gay marriage, he told me privately, I don't know if I am supposed to be repeating our conversations but given his activity recently, Im sure he wouldn't mind. He attends gay pride as well as pride flag raising ceremonies in Barrie, and did recently in Toronto. He has commercials running on TV showing him marching in Pride. He's in the process of re-branding himself in Ontario to be more central. Contrary to popular belief he told me that if he became Premier he would not change the sex-ed curriculum. He's fiscally conservative for sure though and wants to make his mandate (if he wins) about lowering hydro rates, halting investment in wind turbines, returning the province to surpluses, focus on eliminating red tape for business, promote entrepreneurial ventures, among several other things. The next election is 30 months away, so the platform hasn't been made up yet.

In my opinion, Patrick Brown will be the next Premier of Ontario. Just a hunch of I have from feeling out the political atmosphere currently in Ontario.

He needs to be careful not to alienate that base...there are still about 30 seats where they play a big role, and losing them to the Liberals or NDP by staying home (or splitting with a party farther right) would pretty much give the Liberals another term by default...

[Nouvellecosse]

From what I've seen lately, I've been fairly impressed with Lisa Rait. I didn't pay much attention to her as part of the Harper gov but I think she's a strong contender.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Patrick Brown is not really as big of a social conservative as people seem to believe. He's branded that way yes, because of his voting record in the house. But I've spoken with Brown on many occasions in person (I live near Barrie and have him on Facebook as well). He supports gay marriage, he told me privately, I don't know if I am supposed to be repeating our conversations but given his activity recently, Im sure he wouldn't mind. He attends gay pride as well as pride flag raising ceremonies in Barrie, and did recently in Toronto. He has commercials running on TV showing him marching in Pride. He's in the process of re-branding himself in Ontario to be more central. Contrary to popular belief he told me that if he became Premier he would not change the sex-ed curriculum. He's fiscally conservative for sure though and wants to make his mandate (if he wins) about lowering hydro rates, halting investment in wind turbines, returning the province to surpluses, focus on eliminating red tape for business, promote entrepreneurial ventures, among several other things. The next election is 30 months away, so the platform hasn't been made up yet.

In my opinion, Patrick Brown will be the next Premier of Ontario. Just a hunch of I have from feeling out the political atmosphere currently in Ontario.

Patrick Brown is just trying to be another Mike Harris. (trying to be fiscally conservative and socially more liberal) The problem is, he has a socially conservative record which doesn't go over well in much of Ontario. It will hurt him for at least a few years. I'm not saying he couldn't win in the next election but he certainly was a poor choice by the PC Party in my opinion. Christine Elliott was the obvious choice and more of a populist.

Brown hasn't caught the attention of anyone but far-right conservative supporters so far. His riding of Simcoe North is more rural than urban so his by-election victory wasn't anything impressive.

Living in Northern Ontario, I find he is badly out of touch with our region like the Ontario PC Party has been for the last 20 years. He tries to bring up Hydro issues but forgets that the PCs were the ones who started the problems and he offers no solutions of his own. When speaking with Northerners, he talks way too much about tax cuts for businesses and making businesses more competitive. Those aren't the biggest problems in our region. Social, municipal funding and infrastructure issues are.

[Loco101]

Possible next or future CPC leader:

ALUPA CLARKE

He is the MP for Beauport-Limoilou in Quebec.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Patrick Brown is just trying to be another Mike Harris. (trying to be fiscally conservative and socially more liberal) The problem is, he has a socially conservative record which doesn't go over well in much of Ontario. It will hurt him for at least a few years. I'm not saying he couldn't win in the next election but he certainly was a poor choice by the PC Party in my opinion. Christine Elliott was the obvious choice and more of a populist.

Brown hasn't caught the attention of anyone but far-right conservative supporters so far. His riding of Simcoe North is more rural than urban so his by-election victory wasn't anything impressive.

Living in Northern Ontario, I find he is badly out of touch with our region like the Ontario PC Party has been for the last 20 years. He tries to bring up Hydro issues but forgets that the PCs were the ones who started the problems and he offers no solutions of his own. When speaking with Northerners, he talks way too much about tax cuts for businesses and making businesses more competitive. Those aren't the biggest problems in our region. Social, municipal funding and infrastructure issues are.

If that is the case, why was John Tory a dismal failure? He made no inroads in urban Ontario, and lost significant ground in rural Ontario as well.

[Docere]

Patrick Brown has a socially conservative voting record, but he ran a campaign based on no policy whatsoever and has quickly "pinkwashed" himself. He strikes me as an opportunist who will say anything to win. He is also a very good organizer.

[Docere]

BTW Harris wasn't all that "socially liberal" when he got elected either. The 1995 campaign was very homophobic and attacked the NDP government for extending benefits to same sex couples.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Docere

Patrick Brown has a socially conservative voting record, but he ran a campaign based on no policy whatsoever and has quickly "pinkwashed" himself. He strikes me as an opportunist who will say anything to win. He is also a very good organizer.

Hopefully the NDP find a better leader with Premier material, since a 5th term for this government terrifies me so much, even though by then I will likely no longer be living in Ontario.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Docere

Patrick Brown has a socially conservative voting record, but he ran a campaign based on no policy whatsoever and has quickly "pinkwashed" himself. He strikes me as an opportunist who will say anything to win. He is also a very good organizer.

He could end up being the guy next time around, if he keeps his messaging on track - it seems pretty hard to argue that the Liberals will not be ready for some time out by the next election.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If that is the case, why was John Tory a dismal failure? He made no inroads in urban Ontario, and lost significant ground in rural Ontario as well.

That is an excellent point. I actually thought about that.

Here are my feelings:

He was pretty much in the wrong place at the wrong time. Tory was actually quite respected among most Ontarians but other MPPs in his party and his advisers were terrible. It was also only the end of the Liberals' first term so it wasn't an easy time to get huge change.

Another big problem was that the PC Party's far right members made it as though Tory himself was the problem after the election loss. Tory was running in a difficult electoral district against a very popular and an amazingly good campaigner, Kathleen Wynne!!! The future Premier.

Tory wanted to be Toronto-friendly but picked the wrong riding. His advisers really messed up.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

That is an excellent point. I actually thought about that.

Here are my feelings:

He was pretty much in the wrong place at the wrong time. Tory was actually quite respected among most Ontarians but other MPPs in his party and his advisers were terrible. It was also only the end of the Liberals' first term so it wasn't an easy time to get huge change.

Another big problem was that the PC Party's far right members made it as though Tory himself was the problem after the election loss. Tory was running in a difficult electoral district against a very popular and an amazingly good campaigner, Kathleen Wynne!!! The future Premier.

Tory wanted to be Toronto-friendly but picked the wrong riding. His advisers really messed up.

Then he ran in a by-election in a "safe" rural seat and lost...simply because he was out of touch with people in that new riding, since he was essentially a Liberal in their mind.

[Docere]

Tory should never have run against Kathleen Wynne in DVW and stayed with the exurban country estate crowd in Dufferin-Caledon.

And then there was the dumb "fair funding for faith based schools" proposal.

[ssiguy]

Although I find the longevity of the Ontario Liberals and Wynne's election win quite interesting, this thread is about who will replace Harper..............in other words let's keep this discussion about federal politics.

[ssiguy]

As far as I'm concerned the Tories shouldn't even consider anyone who isn't from Ontario.

The desperately need to get back that far more centrists Ontario vote if they ever hope to get back in office. That means a Conservative who will bring the party back to it's more moderate roots. A candidate from Western Canada will be seen as another red-neck Western Reformer, Trudeau and Mulcair are both from Quebec so I don't think the Tories will want their leader to be as well, and Atlantic Canada simply doesn't have the seats needed.

Some will point to MacKay being from Nova Scotia but the reality is that MacKay did a dreadful job in all his portfolios and many of the traditional Progressive Conservative blame, and rightly so, MacKay for capitulating and giving Harper the reigns and taking the party far more right than most Conservatives {especially in Eastern Canada} were comfortable with.

MacKay was also in Harper's inner circle and I think the Tories want to put Harper as far behind them as they can.

[eemy]

I think the fact that Brad Wall wasn't involved in Stephen Harper's CPC will mean that he dodges most negative associations.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Docere

Patrick Brown has a socially conservative voting record, but he ran a campaign based on no policy whatsoever and has quickly "pinkwashed" himself. He strikes me as an opportunist who will say anything to win. He is also a very good organizer.

People may hold socially conservative views on issues but not want to impose those views on others. There are people who are pro-life but understand they cannot ban abortion. People's views also evolve overtime, look at same sex marriage. People like to bring up that the Conservatives were opposed to SSM a decade ago but at that time the country was still very much divided, unlike now. There are people on the left as well who have views they know cannot be implemented.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As far as I'm concerned the Tories shouldn't even consider anyone who isn't from Ontario.

I understand the point you're trying to make but I think it's ridiculous. The Conservatives need to freshen up their image and might need to come off as more moderate but saying only an Ontarian can do that is foolish. I doubt many people see Michelle Rempel as a red-neck nor did they see James Moore that way. Brad Wall is another western Canadian who would likely appeal to many Canadians from coast to coast. And I would imagine that an Atlantic Canadian - like Bernard Lord - could win over more than just their home region.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

People may hold socially conservative views on issues but not want to impose those views on others. There are people who are pro-life but understand they cannot ban abortion. People's views also evolve overtime, look at same sex marriage. People like to bring up that the Conservatives were opposed to SSM a decade ago but at that time the country was still very much divided, unlike now.

Excellent post!

I think you just described me.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

I understand the point you're trying to make but I think it's ridiculous. The Conservatives need to freshen up their image and might need to come off as more moderate but saying only an Ontarian can do that is foolish. I doubt many people see Michelle Rempel as a red-neck nor did they see James Moore that way. Brad Wall is another western Canadian who would likely appeal to many Canadians from coast to coast. And I would imagine that an Atlantic Canadian - like Bernard Lord - could win over more than just their home region.

Absolutely. You can't automatically disqualify residents from 64% of the country from running for the Conservative party leadership.

Not all westerners are mouth breathing rednecks. Not all Atlantic Canadians are pogey reliant drunken fishermen. Not all Ontarians are social progressive latte sippers from the Bridle Path. Everyone deserves a chance regardless of their origin.

As for Bernard Lord, alas he has categorically removed himself from consideration. I firmly believe his political career is over. Peter MacKay however likely would consider running and would likely be the top Atlantic Canadian in contention. He is a social progressive, a good speaker, charismatic (in his own way), at least somewhat bilingual and a more competent administrator than a lot of people on this forum give him credit for.