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Originally Posted by denizen467
Incidentally, the comment about Chicago losing transpacific capacity assumes that frequency isn't increased. (Ultimately, UA is replacing 20 747s over the next two years; overall it would be a loss of capacity at SFO too if they simply did a 1-for-1 replacement with smaller aircraft. So, presumably the otherwise lost capacity will be replaced with extra aircraft.) The comment assumes that as soon as a 747 is retired from O'Hare, it will be replaced with only one 772 relocated from Newark. That would be a reduction roughly from 370 seats to 270 seats. However, they instead could replace the disappearing 370 seats with two aircraft, one 772 plus another widebody. Also note that O'Hare's 747s currently serve just Tokyo and Shanghai (with O'Hare-Beijing already served by 772). Those markets will only have growing demand going forward, especially since they're megahubs, so it wouldn't be surprising to see an increase in the number of daily flights from O'Hare to those cities (or possibly a new route from O'Hare to some other destination in east Asia).
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I highly doubt you will see United (or AA) do anything more than 1x daily on their own metal to anywhere in Asia from Chicago. The Chicago to Asia market has been heavily saturated in the past 2 years with the additions of China Eastern to Shanghai, Hainan to Beijing, Cathay Pacific to Hong Kong, and now EVA to Taipei. All of which are hubs for those carriers with easy 1-stop options to every other city in Asia. During peak times there are 3x daily flights to both Shanghai and Beijing and 5x daily to Tokyo. Roundtrip tickets are pretty easily had for sub-$600 and almost all carriers have reduced frequencies to less than daily in response.
The only transpac growth I see from ORD is with new carriers not currently serving the airport. So the likes of Air China to Beijing, Singapore Airlines to Singapore, Qantas to Brisbane/Sydney, or Air New Zealand to Auckland. I suppose AA could plug the Chicago - Seoul hole for Oneworld.
Transpacific capacity growth out of Chicago has definitely far surpassed demand growth over the past 3-5 years and this isn't even considering the ME3 leeching some of that demand as well.