Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45
I expect we'll see a paradigm shift on this for the first time in the history of humanity, eventually entering an era where it becomes accepted that growth (economic, demographic) cannot continue forever. This will cause significant change to lots of things that have become really ingrained into people's mindsets, like the notion of "time value of money", etc. Social services will have to be readjusted - it will be mathematically impossible to let people work a few decades then retire on a pension for a few decades enjoying unlimited healthcare in a model that resembles what we currently have.
|
I agree with this to some degree. I don't think the pyramid scheme of growing the population to inflate asset prices and give older people long, fully-funded retirements is sustainable.
I wish people thought more about income per capita and GDP per capita. During the past year or so Canada has had weak economic growth on the order of 1% annually or less. Population growth is also around 1%. Growth in GDP per capita is therefore ~0.
The good news is that economic growth is derived from at least three things:
1) Population growth, which is obviously unsustainable.
2) Economic cycles and financial schemes (leverage and then deleverage), which past a certain point are bound to be zero sum over the long run.
3) Technological improvement. This is where most of our improved standard of living has come from over the past couple hundred years.
(1) and (2) tend to have big sustainability problems but we can still improve our living standards through (3) even if the population remains the same. Unfortunately, I don't think economies like Canada's are particularly geared toward making (3) happen. Instead, they are mostly focused on (1) and (2). It's easy to get rich through speculation and financial manipulation than it is to get rich by developing new technology.