NASHVILLE | Development Showcase

[MIRYDI]

Here is another awesome compilation of significant ongoing projects either under construction, proposed, or about to start here in Nashville that MidTenn1 worked on. These are just the projects 15 stories or more.

For those unfamiliar with these projects, I would like to point out that there is an error in the title of one of the buildings at the top on the far right. The title says WES 2 but it's supposed to say Eakin.

It's really impressive to see all these projects in one compilation and goes to show just how much Nashville is booming at the moment.

Once again, big shout out to MidTenn1 for working on these as I and I'm sure many others especially enjoy them...

[MidTenn1]

Originally Posted by MIRYDI

Here is another awesome compilation of significant ongoing projects either under construction, proposed, or about to start here in Nashville that MidTenn1 worked on. These are just the projects 15 stories or more.

For those unfamiliar with these projects, I would like to point out that there is an error in the title of one of the buildings at the top on the far right. The title says WES 2 but it's supposed to say Eakin.

It's really impressive to see all these projects in one compilation and goes to show just how much Nashville is booming at the moment.

Here's my estimate of the likelihood of these projects breaking ground;

5th and Church is one of two recent proposals for this lot. The other is a 62 story residential building. While these are the latest in a long line of proposals for this property, my gut tells me the residential has the best chance but only at about 20%

The Sheet Music was a surprise, but there has been no buzz one way or the other since then. This the same developer who is proposing the 5th & Church project. I think the odds are less than 20%.

WES 1 (and WES2) aka West End Summitt, have been proposed for a decade. It looked like a go 2 years ago when the developer had a deep pockets tenant and bank financing and still couldn't get it done. 1% chance! Damn shame.

Commerce Street is a proposal (one of several) that was chosen to replace the old convention center with a large mixed use development. This proposal includes the 18 to 28 story tower with a Museum of African American Music and a House of Blues. I feel certain this will be built, but won't start until 2015. 85%

SoBro will break ground in a few weeks. Full height to be determined. 99%

The Westin Hotel across from the Music City Convention Center is looking real good to go. Permits are being acquired, etc. I give it 90%

The 12/12 is near completion.

The Eakin project at 1201 Demonbruen in the gulch looks good for a Summer groundbreaking. No major tenants have been announced, though. I give it 80%

1515 Demonbruen is under construction.

The Buckingham in mid-town across from Vanderbilt looks close to breaking ground. But the date keeps moving back. I give a 90% chance.

The Northpoint Hospitaility project will include two hotels joined as one building. They have built one such project already in Nashville and the rendering is of a similar scaled project recently opened in Atlanta, so they have a good record of getting things done. But some suspect the delay in breaking ground is a wait and see move to determine whether or not another Marriott project in the area is a go. 50%

The Green Hills residential project was once proposed as a 22 story project by got shouted down to 16 stories by all the NIMBYs. Still I give it 66%

1818 Church has already been postponed to 2015. Who knows? 50%

The SoBro Marriott is the other Marriott in SoBro. The potential developer has options on the land and continues to renew them. Not much news. I going to say 60% however.

The One City project is actually a mixed development project that recently asked for and received a variance to allow buildings up to 20 floors to be built in the development. I don't have a good handle on their resources and financing, but some minor construction is underway. I give it a 50% chance of breaking ground in the next three years.

The Turnberry project in SoBro across from the MCC offers few details other than the reputation of the developers which has been fairly successful. They are out of Miami and I have a gut feeling they will do something flashy; maybe a new tallest. 66% chance of something breaking ground soon and 33% chance of a new tallest.

The 4 Seasons was first hinted at by one of Nashville's leading developers and in spite of much skepticism by most , the rumors persist with leaks of visits by 4 Seasons people and a possible sight selection in the Gulch. I still give it only a 25% chance. But if it happens, it could be big!

The Virgin Hotel looks promising and exciting. The Richard Branson brand will be the second one built in the US. However, the Music Row area has strict height restrictions of about 18 floors, so I wouldn't expect more than that. I give it a 75% chance.

And the recently proposed, 17 story residential building in the Music Row area will need a variance to go that tall as I understand. I don't see that happening (cough NIMBY cough). 25% chance it will be taller than 15 stories).

Just my 2 cents.

[Dale]

Dour odds on OneCity. Thought it was a dead cert.

[MidTenn1]

Originally Posted by Dale

Dour odds on OneCity. Thought it was a dead cert.

Just one man's uneducated opinion. I got a sense, there was not a lot of money behind this project and it would be done piecemeal as the occasional, odd tenant was signed up. It may likely happen, but several years down the road.

[MIRYDI]

Ground broke on the OneC1ty project back in January, and machinery has been there doing site prep ever since. There is a very large area to grade and level. Also, they have inked several tenants including CumberlandCenter, a nonprofit spun out of Lebanon-based Cumberland University, and Tennessee Orthopaedic Alliance. CumberlandCenter is set to move into the first building, which is expected to be completed in early 2015.

Yeah, this might not be built all at once, and be done in more of a piecemeal fashion as tenants sign on, but I'm pretty sure construction will be starting very soon with one of the first buildings.

For those unfamiliar with the project, here is a rendering.





As for MidTenn1's post about the likelihood of those projects breaking ground, I'll throw in my .02 as well.

Now I'm a little more optimistic than most, but I'll give Tony's 5th & Church project almost a 100% chance of happening. It's not really an issue of "if" with me, It's more or less just "when" it will happen, and in what form. Whether it be the mixed-use tower, the all residential, or the original 505 CST proposal, rest assured that Tony G. will get a large scale project off the ground at that location one of these day's. It could be a year down the road or maybe 10, but I'm certain something very prominent will rise there in the future. It is one of the hottest locations in all the CBD, and I don't see it being a parking lot forever. Especially not at the rate of growth we are seeing now.

Sheet Music was indeed a suprise for us, and boy what a surprise it was. I actually give this project a 70% chance of happening, again it's just a matter of when. We know when it was announced, it was reported that he was in talks with a major international company to anchor the building, and we all know how long deals like these take to work out. Not just with tenants, but with getting loans lined up for construction as well. I'm pretty sure this will not be a parking lot for too long either. I'm willing to bet within the next couple years we will see something being constructed on that site. Tony has a lot on his plate right now, and it might take him completing the SoBro before he could get started on this one.

With WES....Psssh! Who know's what will happen with this. I'm not even going to give this one a guess lol. I'm sure something will rise from that location one day, but probably not from Alex Palmer.

As for Commerce street, or the old convention center site, I actually agree with MidTenn1 on this one with an 85% chance of happening. This is almost a done deal in my eyes as far as I'm concerned.

With the SoBro, I'll give that a 100% chance. That's fixing to start anytime now. I don't think Tony would go public saying it's a go without being 100% positive. Tony is not Alex Palmer.

The new Westin I actually give a 95% chance. This also seem's like a done deal to me, and will more than likely break ground this year.

On the Eakin project, I'll agree with MidTenn1 on this also and give it an 80% chance. From recent articles with the Eakin development team, they have stated that financing is in place and expect to break ground this summer. I'm still a little iffy on if it will break ground that soon, but It seem's like they have their ducks in a row and are pretty close.

Buckingham project I'll give that a little higher chance with a 95%. This seem's like a done deal to me as well with construction eminent.

The Northpoint Hospitality project I'm gonna agree on this with a 50% chance. This project has missed it's deadline given of when they were supposed to start, and have not heard anything else other than construction was delayed for some reason. I also believe this has to do with the flurry of hotel announcement in close proximity to this and are waiting to see how things pan out. The good news is that the demand for hotels in Nashville is still very strong. How strong that will be after the Westin, Turnberry's possible JW marriott, the Virgin hotel, and maybe Tony's Marriott is the question I'm sure the developers are asking themselves.

The Green Hills project I acutally give a 95% chance of happening. Demo has started on the buildings on site, and the NIMBY'S lawsuit is weak. They really don't have a case other than they just don't like it, and that's not gonna hold up in court. This project has already been approved and is well within the guidelines for the area. Southernland has recently said they will be breaking ground any time now, and they know nothings going to stop it.

As for the Turnberry project, I give this a pretty high chance of happening with a 90% chance. I'm not sure if this will be a new tallest or not, but I agree it will be something big and flashy as the developers have deep pockets and have committed a huge budget of $300M for this. I see this as almost a sure thing honestly.

On the Four Seasons hotel I'll give this a low chance as well with a 20-25% chance of happening. MarketStreet has said numerous times they want a 5 star hotel to be developed in the Gulch at some point, and I believe we will see one in the near future whether it be a Four Seasons or some other luxury brand hotel. It's just a matter of when and what brand.

Richard Branson's Virgin hotel seem's like a done deal to me. We all know the man has deep pockets and I don't see this falling through. I give this a 95% chance.

Last but not least is Tony's SoBro Marriott. On this one I'm gonna give it a 40% chance due to the fact that Tony continues to renew his option to purchase the land, and the fact that he has received some TIF funding for the project. If it wasn't for that I would probably write this one off as done. Two large scale hotels are going to be rising right across the street for this and that surely has dampened any hopes that he had to develop this. I do believe that Tony will eventually develop something on this property as it is a very prime location right across from the MCC, but I'm thinking it will probably be a residential or mixed-use tower of some sort. Furthermore, Tony G. has a ton on his plate and this will probably be on the back burner for a while.

Anyway's, that's my opinion/speculation on these projects. Hopefully we will have more to speculate on soon...

[MidTenn1]

Good analysis, Mirydi.

[MIRYDI]

Originally Posted by MidTenn1

Good analysis, Mirydi.

Thanks MT1! Yours was a great post also!

Like I said, I know I'm probably a lot more optimistic about some of these projects, but I really don't see any of them as pie in the sky projects so to speak. Everyone of them has an excellent chance of happening in the future, it's just going to take some time and we have to be patient. Development is really starting to take off, but I still don't think we are in that "boom" just yet. Over the next couple years I'm willing to bet we will start seeing things go up at a rate more like Austin is seeing now. Nashville is one of the fastest growing cities in the country and more and more people are flocking to the core, all of which bodes well for these projects and future development as well.

[MIRYDI]

Apparently Williamson county is not only one of the richest counties in the country, but it is also home to the largest houses in the nation. What a shocker...

Williamson Co. has largest homes in U.S., report says
http://www.tennessean.com/story/mone...-says/9000613/

Williamson County is not only one of the nation’s richest counties, but also one of the roomiest.

According to the Vizual Statistix blog, Williamson County is home to the largest houses in the nation when ranked by the number of rooms per home.

Homes in Williamson County have an average of 7.5 rooms per home, tying it with Stafford County, Virginia in suburban Washington, D.C. for the top spot in the nation.

The national median is 5.5 rooms per house (not counting bathrooms), according to the report.

[MidTenn1]

A lot of my skepticism about the 5th and Church project comes from this developers history of announcing tower proposals for this lot which still has surface parking.



Some may have good reasons for not coming about; the HCA Tower was killed after a family takeover of HCA and the Great Recession of 2008 supposedly stopped the Signature tower. But these are ambitious projects and I don't see the heavyweights behind it.

[Dale]

That is if you believe that a lot can be star-crossed. There is a lot in Uptown Charlotte that saw multiple failed proposals for over a decade. Now, 300 South Tryon has sign Mass Mutual as anchor and will break ground shortly.

[MIRYDI]

Originally Posted by MidTenn1

A lot of my skepticism about the 5th and Church project comes from this developers history of announcing tower proposals for this lot which still has surface parking.

Some may have good reasons for not coming about; the HCA Tower was killed after a family takeover of HCA and the Great Recession of 2008 supposedly stopped the Signature tower. But these are ambitious projects and I don't see the heavyweights behind it.

Man, I sure am glad that HCA proposal never happened... That thing is fugly!

The Signature tower was extremely close to happening, but your correct about the recession putting a stop to it. The problem with 505 CST is that it would take a major tenant signing to get that thing started, plus it would have been extremely expensive to build. All the green technology designed into that tower would have made the cost skyrocket making it very difficult to get financing for. I'm pretty sure that's why Tony Giarratana came up with two more proposals for the site that are a little more versatile and feasible.

The mixed-use tower (which I absolutely love by the way) would still require a significant tenant signing before getting started, but with the other half of the tower being residential it would make it a lot easier to secure financing.

The residential tower wouldn't require a tenant at all, and would be the easiest of the three proposals to secure financing for. Tony G. stated in one of his interviews when the two new proposals came out that he was leaning towards the residential tower for that reason.

Having these three separate proposals is pretty smart really. It gives him the flexibility to market this site several different ways which increases it's chance of happening. As Tony did with the SoBro, what you will probably see happen is him team up with another developer/s (likely with deep pockets) to help develop the property. Then you will have the heavyweights needed to get the thing done. For example, three companies are jointly driving the SoBro project: Giarratana Development, Magellan Development Group, and Wanxiang America Real Estate Group.

I wouldn't rule out the idea of Tony teaming up with these guy's for other projects as well including Sheet Music and 5th & Church. Investing in the hot Nashville market right now seem's to be a popular trend at the moment. Believe me, many out of town developers are surely taking notice of the continuing record breaking real estate and commercial transactions like the Elliston 23 that just sold, and the Pinnacle building to name a few.

Here is a really good article about what I'm talking about.


Nashville Leading as Office Deals Beat U.S. Average: Real Estate
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...al-estate.html


Some quotes from the article.

Commercial real estate investors are also saying yes to Nashville, drawn by rising rents in the state capital and longtime hub of the country-music industry. Office and apartment sales in the area soared to records last year, combining for $1.7 billion in transactions and outperforming the U.S. average, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc.

Last year, Nashville office deals rose 50 percent and apartments gained 35 percent, compared with increases across the U.S. of 22 percent and 14 percent, respectively, said Dan Fasulo, managing director of New York-based Real Capital Analytics. “Any time you outpace the national, it’s significant,” he said. “Smart money is picking off the best assets in these mid-tier cities.”

Office vacancies in the city plunged to 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 12.3 percent a year earlier, among the 10 biggest declines for U.S. markets, according to CBRE Group Inc. Rents rose 1.7 percent to $20.84 a square foot and are poised for annual gains of 3.3 percent through next year amid a supply shortage, said Arthur Jones, a Boston-based economist with the brokerage.

Nashville’s in-migration of young people and pro-business climate “bode well for above-average office-demand growth,” Green Street said in a Dec. 4 note on Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW), whose buying spree boosted its Nashville buildings to a value of $229 a square foot, pricier than any other market among the landlord’s holdings, including Atlanta at $180 a square foot.

Nashville was among the top three fastest-growing U.S. cities for most of 2013, Labor Department data show. Health care’s preeminence includes 220,000 jobs, a $53,000 industry wage that exceeds the $39,000 area average

Nashville residential rents surged to $794 in the fourth quarter, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier and the seventh-biggest jump in the U.S., ahead of Houston’s 4.4 percent increase, according to a Reis Inc. (REIS) survey of 79 markets.

Highwoods in September raised the investment stakes when it bought the Pinnacle office tower for a record $153 million, or $294 a square foot, Real Capital data show. The city’s newest high-rise, which opened in 2010 and is 89 percent occupied, quotes rents of $35 a square foot, providing potential for increased revenue as rates rise, according to the Raleigh, North Carolina-based real estate investment trust.

It's this kind of stuff that investors and developers take notice of and drool over. That's why your starting to see all these out of town developers and investors flock here searching for their piece of the pie. It's also a good reason why Tony and other developers should have no problem finding a partner to team up with when the time is right for some of these ambitious project to take off...

Sorry for the rambling, I get to typing and just can't stop sometimes...

[MIRYDI]

Gulch Crossings project has landed another big tenant with brokerage firm Raymond James. The building isn't even half way completed yet and is already 60% leased out.

MarketStreet lands big financial firm for Gulch office project
http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville...=image_gallery

Raymond James will be moving into a 30,000 square-foot space at MarketStreet Enterprise's Gulch Crossing, according to a news release. The organization joins previously signed tenants Earl Swensson Associates, The Bank of Nashville and Cassidy Turley.

With the addition of Raymond James, the 205,000-square-foot building, still under construction, is now 60 percent leased. The firm expects to move to its new space by late summer of 2015.

A new render with their name on it. Previous renders have shown the Bank of Nashville sign on the other side, so maybe Raymond James will have their signage up on the opposite side like this render shows.

[MIRYDI]

A poster on UP stumbled upon some different renders for the Hilton Garden Inn hotel under construction on KVB. The renders are from Charwell Hospitality's website. Nothing too special here but I still think it's a pretty nice addition to the skyline.

[EarthRocker]

Originally Posted by MidTenn1

The Eakin project at 1201 Demonbruen in the gulch looks good for a Summer groundbreaking. No major tenants have been announced, though. I give it 80%

Not 100 percent? There are two tower cranes up (for a couple of weeks now) adjacent to 12/12 on Demonbreun, on what I thought was the announced Eakin site. Am I confused, and these are actually working on something else? (I thought Gulch Crossing was further down the street.) And if not, how can the presence of tower cranes not constitute "construction underway"? (Serious question, I'm not being snarky. )

[MidTenn1]

Originally Posted by EarthRocker

Not 100 percent? There are two tower cranes up (for a couple of weeks now) adjacent to 12/12 on Demonbreun, on what I thought was the announced Eakin site. Am I confused, and these are actually working on something else? (I thought Gulch Crossing was further down the street.) And if not, how can the presence of tower cranes not constitute "construction underway"? (Serious question, I'm not being snarky. )

Both of those cranes are for the Gulch Crossings building. It is probably longer than it is tall and needs two.

There is no activity on the Eakins site other than some possible core drilling.

[MIRYDI]

Looks like the Westin hotel is going to get a little help from the city. The article also states that they plan to break ground this summer.

Nashville's Westin hotel to get $15M in public financing from city
http://www.tennessean.com/story/mone...-mdha/9096377/

The Metro Development and Housing Agency's board has approved $15 million in tax-increment financing for The Westin Nashville hotel planned across from Music City Center.

By statute, developer Nashville Hospitality Capital LLC can use the money approved under a development agreement with MDHA for specific purposes, such as site improvement and infrastructure and land acquisition.

This summer, the group led by real estate investor Kevin M. Fee plans to start work on the $110 million, 25-story, 430-room hotel on a 1.7-acre site that includes the former Cokesbury bookstore and the two parcels behind it.

In a TIF financing deal, property tax revenue that is generated by a development is to pay off a loan made to the developer. This amount is far larger than the $3.2 million in TIF financing that was approved for a proposed Hyatt Regency hotel on Lower Broadway last August. That deal ultimately fell through.

In a related move, a room-block agreement with the Westin's developer is on the agenda for Monday's meeting of the Convention Center Authority that oversees the Music City Center. "The Westin guys — they're absolutely are trying to move forward," said Charles Starks, the Convention Center Authority's chief executive officer. "This is another check on the list."

Starks declined to give specific number of rooms the hotel developer would have to provide for large citywide conventions, but said it's similar to previous agreements with other hotels.

[Cashville]

Any large Tony G proposal has a less than 10% chance of happening. And I dont care what anybody says, the Signature Tower proposal of 1,000 ft+ never had a chance getting off the ground. It was all marketing hype, but a completely unrealistic proposal even in the best of times much less a recession.

[MIRYDI]

Originally Posted by Cashville

Any large Tony G proposal has a less than 10% chance of happening. And I dont care what anybody says, the Signature Tower proposal of 1,000 ft+ never had a chance getting off the ground. It was all marketing hype, but a completely unrealistic proposal even in the best of times much less a recession.

So the SoBro has less than 10% chance of happening? Gotchya...

[Dale]

At least Cashville hates his own city too.

[BnaBreaker]

Originally Posted by Cashville

Any large Tony G proposal has a less than 10% chance of happening. And I dont care what anybody says, the Signature Tower proposal of 1,000 ft+ never had a chance getting off the ground. It was all marketing hype, but a completely unrealistic proposal even in the best of times much less a recession.

You don't care what anyone says, you'll just keep right on believing whatever it is you already believed, because 'why not?' Now that's some sound logic right there!

BTW, DonNDonelson of Urbanplanet noted that in the article about Westin financing, it stated that metro had also approved funds to bury the power lines in The Gulch. Now THAT, might be the best news I've heard all week!!