US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Novacek

That list is by absolute numbers, not percentages. Plus, the census hasn't released 2015 estimates (the last release was 2014 estimates) so those must be from some other source.

Actually, some of those numbers look totally off. Over half a million in growth for Charlotte?

Someone over at the SSG was smoking something fierce. I cannot find a single number on that list which would even come close to being consistent with Census Bureau estimates (even though 2015 estimates will not be released until late spring 2016).

Example: Charlotte from April 1, 2010 census to July 1, 2014 grew by an estimated 163,302. Austin by 227,010. San Antonio by 186,144. There is no way on God's great earth that Charlotte grew by 560,000 (a ~25% increase in population) in four years!

Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles and New York were the only "Metropolitan Statistical Areas" which saw an estimated growth in excess of 400,000 (none above 570,000) from the census through July 1, 2014.

[Tech House]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Mitchell is masculine compared to me.

That's my favorite thing I've read in months.

It's funny how everything we write can be related back to the census in a way. The tangent about what TV shows people like, and Netflix canceling a show because of too old a demographic, just shows how important this info is to marketers and other entities. I taught marketing at UT for a few years as a doctoral candidate, and demographics/psychographics was pretty much my favorite topic. I made ample room for that in the syllabus, no matter what specific course I taught. By golly, if you don't know who you're selling to then you ain't no marketer!

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

1980s.

Plurals versus possessives.

OK, I'll be more specific. From 1986 to 1990 when oil was at it's lowest between $10 - $20 a barrel.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

OK, I'll be more specific. From 1986 to 1990 when oil was at it's lowest between $10 - $20 a barrel.

That second "sentence" in your post is not a sentence. There's always room for another annoying grammar bully!

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by The ATX

That second "sentence" in your post is not a sentence. There's always room for another annoying grammar bully!

Oh lord...

[hookem]

Originally Posted by The ATX

That second "sentence" in your post is not a sentence. There's always room for another annoying grammar bully!

Not a very good one, since you missed the glaring it's error.

(grammar bully bully)

[wwmiv]

Everyone can come across as annoying online.

[lzppjb]

Not me. I'm always witty and everybody likes me.

[JoninATX]

Not I either.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Someone over at the SSG was smoking something fierce. I cannot find a single number on that list which would even come close to being consistent with Census Bureau estimates (even though 2015 estimates will not be released until late spring 2016).

Example: Charlotte from April 1, 2010 census to July 1, 2014 grew by an estimated 163,302. Austin by 227,010. San Antonio by 186,144. There is no way on God's great earth that Charlotte grew by 560,000 (a ~25% increase in population) in four years!

Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles and New York were the only "Metropolitan Statistical Areas" which saw an estimated growth in excess of 400,000 (none above 570,000) from the census through July 1, 2014.

The only thing I can possibly think of is that they're assuming the CSA (MSA?) acquires or reacquires additional counties, and then they count that as "growth".

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Someone over at the SSG was smoking something fierce. I cannot find a single number on that list which would even come close to being consistent with Census Bureau estimates (even though 2015 estimates will not be released until late spring 2016).

Example: Charlotte from April 1, 2010 census to July 1, 2014 grew by an estimated 163,302. Austin by 227,010. San Antonio by 186,144. There is no way on God's great earth that Charlotte grew by 560,000 (a ~25% increase in population) in four years!

Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles and New York were the only "Metropolitan Statistical Areas" which saw an estimated growth in excess of 400,000 (none above 570,000) from the census through July 1, 2014.

I suspect as much, I don't even think they explain how they even came up with those numbers like their methodology.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I suspect as much, I don't even think they explain how they even came up with those numbers like their methodology.

Five counties were added to the Charlotte MSA 2013 accounting for the 500,000 increase. So the idiots doing the article are counting that as growth since 2010.

From the article I linked to:

"In January [2013], the Charlotte metro area population was 1.8 million people. In February [2013], the metro area population was 2.3 million. Where did the half-million people come from? New boundaries were drawn for metropolitan statistical areas.

Link: https://ui.uncc.edu/story/charlotte-msa-change-2013

[Tech House]

Charlotte is a treacherous cheater, leap-frogging us via Census Bureau jiggery pokery. That Charlotte had no say in the matter is not an excuse for us to passively accept this affront to our dignity. We must declare war and not relent until every last soul has been eliminated from the newly added county that is the source of this travesty.

Everyone jump up on the nearest horse and shout with me, "They may take our lives, but they will never take our ranking in the list of MSA's by population!"

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Tech House

Charlotte is a treacherous cheater, leap-frogging us via Census Bureau jiggery pokery. That Charlotte had no say in the matter is not an excuse for us to passively accept this affront to our dignity. We must declare war and not relent until every last soul has been eliminated from the newly added county that is the source of this travesty.

Everyone jump up on the nearest horse and shout with me, "They may take our lives, but they will never take our ranking in the list of MSA's by population!"

Charlotte was larger than us before the additional counties.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by Tech House

Charlotte is a treacherous cheater, leap-frogging us via Census Bureau jiggery pokery. That Charlotte had no say in the matter is not an excuse for us to passively accept this affront to our dignity. We must declare war and not relent until every last soul has been eliminated from the newly added county that is the source of this travesty.

Everyone jump up on the nearest horse and shout with me, "They may take our lives, but they will never take our ranking in the list of MSA's by population!"

Or we can just steal the Temple/Killeen MSA and add it to Austin. Charlotte won't know what hit em .

[drummer]

It's seemingly moving in that direction anyway...why not claim it a little early?

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by drummer

It's seemingly moving in that direction anyway...why not claim it a little early?

Exactly! I read somewhere that the commuter patterns for both metros were at 12% a few years ago. For it to add to Austin MSA, the commuter patterns needs to be at least 15%.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

Exactly! I read somewhere that the commuter patterns for both metros were at 12% a few years ago. For it to add to Austin MSA, the commuter patterns needs to be at least 15%.

That's CSA. For the MSA the employment interchange as measured by either the core counties or the outlying county has to be 25%.

We're not stealing any of their counties any time soon, and I'm not sure rehashing these old arguments is productive.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

That's CSA. For the MSA the employment interchange as measured by either the core counties or the outlying county has to be 25%.

We're not stealing any of their counties any time soon, and I'm not sure rehashing these old arguments is productive.

Actually, it looks like updated county to county commuting data got released last month (based on the 09-13 ACS, the last dataset was circa 2010).

I may peruse it and see how close we may/may not be getting for some counties. I agree that "stealing" from another MSA probably isn't close to happening, but we may be getting closer on some of the currently unaffiliated counties (Burnet, etc.)

http://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Actually, it looks like updated county to county commuting data got released last month (based on the 09-13 ACS, the last dataset was circa 2010).

I may peruse it and see how close we may/may not be getting for some counties. I agree that "stealing" from another MSA probably isn't close to happening, but we may be getting closer on some of the currently unaffiliated counties (Burnet, etc.)

http://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/

If I'm understanding these numbers and the process:

Williamson (core county) to Travis: 94,930/213565 = 44%
Hays (core county) to Travis: 30193 / 77499 = 39%
(just for reference, I believe there's different criteria for the core counties).


Bastrop to Travis: 14439
Bastrop to Williamson: 1006
Bastrop to Hays: 460
15905 / 32415 = 49%

Caldwell to Travis: 4470
Caldwell to Williamson: 141
Caldwell to Hays: 2851
7462 / 15272 = 49%

So those two aren't going anywhere for a while.

Burnet to Travis: 2028
Burnet to Williamson: 1473
Burnet to Hays: 7
3508 / 18285 = 19%

So no addition of Burnet for a while. And it's just not growing very much either.

Milam to Travis: 797
Milam to Williamson: 803
Milam to Hays: 14
1614 / 9265 = 17%

So not them either. And they actually lost population since the census.

Blanco to Travis: 545
Blanco to Williamson: 30
Blanco to Hays: 234
809 / 4682 = 17%

Lee to Travis: 829
Lee to Williamson: 191
Lee to Hays: 4
1024 / 7391 = 14% Not a chance.

And just for completeness

Bell to Travis: 1634
Bell to Williamson: 2202
Bell to Hays: 32
3868 / 141,147 = 3%